Story of AAPL on Friday

Let's examine from a technical perspective what happened today on AAPL as it relates to Gap Fill Thresholds, Seeker Counts, and index rebalancing. AAPL lost size in the NASDAQ index, which rebalances over the weekend, which means that funds have to sell some of their shares.
First, here is how AAPL starting Friday, with an A over the first 5-minute bar. Note also that the red line from the prior session was the lower Gap Fill Threshold from that day, which the market used very specifically:

AAPL gets off to a strong start in the morning and runs up toward the upper Gap Fill Threshold (green line) in the first 30 minutes or so:

This is first resistance after that move. As trading continues, that level becomes more solid resistance:

And even moreso after a couple of hours:

When it finally does break through, we get an upside move that leads to a 9-bar Seeker setup count, although that doesn't have to be the high of the move:

In fact, as long as the 4-bar lookback mechanism remains in place, the energy can continue, which it does until we break the lookback and close the Seeker setup box, which produces the high:

Note that the actual 1 to 13 Seeker count is now well underway (which starts after the 9 ends); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and this ultimately leads to a 13 bar sell signal late in the session:

How well does that line up with what happens? Pretty well, as AAPL crumbles on late selling due to the rebalancing:

All of this was led by our technical tools for the session, even if the rebalancing situation is a little unusual.


Current View of the US Dollar Index

Let's discuss the broader view of the US Dollar Index. Let's start with a fairly short-term look at the daily chart, which broke down over the last two weeks:

That chart shows a clear downtrend in place, with a trendline that we can follow easily. Also, Friday's close would be 8 bars down on a new Seeker count. The 9th bar is typically where we start to see exhaustion.
The goal here is to measure the exhaustion from multiple timeframes and see what it gives us.
If you back the daily chart out a bit, you can see the inverted cup and handle over the last year or more that broke down, which is a significant technical break:

More importantly, however, we will back the chart out to a weekly chart, which shows more of the chart going back in time as we approach the true lows for the US Dollar Index. The key here is that we are within striking distance of the all-time lows, but also, with Projection Mode on with the Seeker tool, you can see that this week that just ended also gave us the 12th bar of the actual Seeker count (not the 9-bar setup count). A 13 would be a strong reversal buy signal on a longer-term timeframe, and if we were able to dip down and hit the prior lows in the process, that would be a double bottom, which would be interesting.
Even more interesting, take a look at the monthly chart. Here, you can see almost 2 decades of data, with the highs back in 2000-2001, and the low in 2008. But the Seeker setup count on the monthly is now 8 bars down, meaning that April could give us a 9 and be a short term energy flip:

In all timeframes, the US Dollar is heading toward significant reversal signals as it approaches the prior lows. The bounce could be interesting.


Stock Picks Recap for 4/29/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, NUVA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TDSC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In the Messenger, Rich's DECK triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His GT triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:

In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.


Tradesight Market Preview for 4/28/11

The SP broke to new high ground on the day adding 10 handles to the move. Price settled above the prior high which now puts the 8/8 level in play up to 1375. The bar count remains favorable at only 9 days up in the exhaustion countdown.

Naz added 24 on the day settling at a very important level. The close was right at the confluence of the 100% fib extension, the Seeker risk level (magenta) and the +1/8 Gann level. This is a rare instance where the Gann, Fibonacci and DeMark practitioners all have a meaningful level to trade.

The late cycle BTK index has assumed leadership of the multi sector daily chart:

The put/call ratio has yet to register a climatic reading on this move:

The 10-day Trin still has plenty of gas in the tank before recording an over bought reading <0.85.

The BTK exploded higher getting very close to the 8/8 target area at 1500.

The XAU has a strong day but is still bearishly lagging the underlying gold futures.

The BKX finally showed signs of life. Note the DTL that has been added to the chart.

The Dow Transports broke out to a new high on the move:

The Dow theorists were pleased to see both the INDU and TRAN both register new 52 week highs but note that the Dow 30 Industrials are close to the +2/8 over bought level.

The SOX continues to bearishly lag the Naz. Even with the Naz recording new 52 week highs, the SOX was barely able to close green on the day. This divergence will be a rally killer if it persists.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day. If the weakness persists in the OSX and the broad market holds firm traders should focus on the late cycle transportation names.

Oil is trading right at the 100% fib extension and also the 8/8 Gann level.

Gold broke out to new highs and is now 8 days up and in overbought territory in the Gann box.


Forex Calls Recap for 4/27/11

One winner on the GBPUSD ahead of the Fed (half size). See below. Meanwhile, here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in morning and stopped at C, all ahead of the Fed:


Stock Picks Recap for 4/27/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Lots of triggers that worked great today while triggering without market support.
From the report, CELG triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great:

URBN triggered long (without market support) and worked great:

TSLA gapped through the trigger and couldn't be entered.
STEC triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:

Rich's AMZN triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked huge:

His DANG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His JOYG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's FSLR triggered long (without market support) and worked nice:

BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked nice:

Rich's FNSR triggered long (with market support) and worked nice also:

In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.


Tradesight Market Preview for 4/26/11

The SP posted a very narrow range measuring day with very little change on the day. Volume was down ahead of the 2 day FOMC meeting.

The price action in the Naz was very similar to the SP. Price closed very near the 8/8 Gann level with little net change on the day. Note that narrow range days build up energy for a range expansion move when a catalyst is introduced.

The 10-day Trin is actually closer to oversold than overbought at 1.17.

The weekly cumulative A/D line is technically sound after recording a new high close on the move. This is exactly what intermarket analysts would expect to see before the broad market breaks out to the upside.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX posted a narrow range day but was the top Naz sector. A close over the April highs opens the door to the static trend line at 460.

The BKX traded inline with the broad market so nothing new technically.

The BTK lost 5 handles on the day, still below the +2/8 level that would frame shift the daily.

The OSX lost 1% on the day and was much weaker than the market. The 10 and 50dmas have converged just below the recent lows which make for key support.

The XAU was the last laggard losing 2.5% on the day. The XAUs refusal to produce a new high bodes poorly for gold futures holding above 1500. For gold futures to continue higher the XAU needs to make a new high.

Oil retested the 100% fib extension but has yet to exceed it. This is a very key area of resistance and also new beak point.

Gold posted a range high distribution day, settling below the open.


Stock Picks Recap for 4/20/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
With the gap, several of the stocks off of the report gapped over their triggers, so no plays on those.
VMED triggered long (with market support) and worked:

MYL triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:

In the Messenger, SNDK triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich's DECK triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich's VMW triggered long (with market support) and worked enough:

In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.


Forex Calls Recap for 4/20/11

US Dollar got weaker again during the session. Here's the index with our market directional tool, negative all the way through:

Two nice winners in the GBPUSD (one from this session and one carryover from the last session). See below.
New calls and chat tonight for the last trading day of the week.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target for 50 pips at B, stopped second half at C. We still had the second half of the prior day's trade on with a stop overnight at 1.6300, which didn't stop, and then raised it in the morning and stopped at D for over 100 pips:

The summary of the other pairs is available to subscribers and trial members only.