Tradesight Market Prevew for 3/31/11

The SP closed at a new bounce high as Q1 comes to a close adding 7 on the day. Price tested but did not exceed +1/8. Note that the pattern is now 8 days up.

Naz gapped higher, filled the gap, and then settled right at the open. Like the SP, the Naz is 8 days up. There are a large number of stocks in the same rhythm as the SP and the Naz with a very notable 1477 stocks 8 days up.

The multi sector daily chart reinforces the comments form the last report, keep a eye on the relative strength developing in the BTK.

The BTK was top dog by a wide margin exploding higher by 3%, keep an eye on the next fib target.

The XAU outperformed the broad market by 100bp, price remains above all of the major moving averages.

The BKX is still sleeping and traded in-line with the broad market.

The SOX was relatively weak, testing and rejected by the 50dma.

The OSX was the last laggard but did record a new intraday high on the move. The 100% fib extension is a very key area. Even though today was a new high, price closed below the open making a distribution day. Range high distribution days are where bull moves often begin corrections.

Oil:

Gold:

The weekly cumulative advance/decline line continues to look very healthy with implys that pull backs should be short lived.


Stock Picks Recap for 3/30/11

Pretty boring day.
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, NXPI triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work. Worked later, but we'll just count the initial:

SHOO triggered long (with market support) and worked eventually:

MENT short gapped under the trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's WFC triggered short (without market support) and worked enough to fill the gap:

Rich's AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His BIIB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

ERTS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 3 did not.


Forex Calls Recap for 3/30/11

Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with the market directional tools:

GBPUSD, one winner after two early trigger losers and once again ended up near where we started. See below. New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long early at A (partial size) and stopped. Same on the short side at B. Main trade triggered at C after setting the level, hit first target at D, closed final at E in the morning:


Tradesight Market Preview for 3/30/11

The SP answered an outside day down with an outside day up gaining 14. The volume was light but will likely pick up as the rest of the week progresses. Wednesday, the ADP employment number is out before the bell then Thursday jobless claims are released and finally the monthly non-farm payroll number should force some volume into the tape by Friday.

Naz was unable to exceed yesterday’s high but did close at a 2 week high. Note that price in now back above both the 200 and 50dmas.

The multi sector daily chart shows the BTK coming on strong as is very common at this point of the advance.

The OSX was top gun breaking out to a new high and closing in on the 100% Fibonacci extension.

The BTK is close to breaking out of the consolidation range. Make sure to overweight this sector and look for long plays if the index closes above 1334.

The SOX was higher by 1%, staging just under the recent 3 day high.

The BKX eked out a small gain and continues to lag the broad market.

The broker dealer index was the last laggard on the day and remains well below the 50dma.

Oil recovered early losses and closed higher on the day;

Gold was a source of funds but left a tail:


Stock Picks Recap for 3/29/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LPSN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL call triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AMZN call triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

Another AMZN call triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and did not work initially:

Rich's PCLN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, and one did not which is really unique on a day where market volume was so light.


Forex Calls Recap for 3/29/11

Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional lines where the midpoint and opening level ended up being about the same, and we closed right above that level:

No new progress again. See GBPUSD for trade results.
New calls tonight and chat. All of the markets feel extremely slow this week.
GBPUSD:
One leg of the long triggered at A and stopped (the other two legs did not under our rules). Short triggered at B, reached down to within a couple of pips of the first target at C, and stopped at D:


Tradesight Market Preview for 3/29/11

The SP lost 8 handles, closing on the low of the day. A couple of important developments should be noted. The breakaway gap down was filled (well within one tick) and this will be crossed off the technical to do list by traders. Also, Monday’s candle was an outside day down—price exceeded the prior high and reversed closing below the low of the prior candle. This will be an important development if price follows through to the downside. Use a close under the 10ema for confirmation.

Naz showed relative weakness vs. the SP all session. This is seldom a bullish sign. Price never traded above the Friday high like the SP did which emphasizes this point. Keep in mind that this week is the end of the month and end of the quarter which means that volatility should be on the rise as the institutions bombard the market with their window dressing agendas.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin has yet to record a climatic over sold reading of 1.35+.

The OSX was top gun on the day, topping last week’s high close. The Seeker exhaustion signal remains active.

The SOX posted a narrow range day but was a technical positive because it outperformed the Naz.

The BTK was relatively flat:

The BKX was able to hold above the low set Friday. Set an alarm for a break under 51.55 which would be a bearish break of the two day inside pattern.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day losing 1.4%. The 10ema is key support right around 211.

Oil was lower by $1.55 possibly setting up a near term double top.

Gold was lower by 5 handles, note that the Seeker exhaustion signal is still in effect.


Stock Picks Recap for 3/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the main report.
Rich's GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His MCP triggered long (without market support) and worked:

His NVDA triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.


Forex Calls Recap for 3/28/11

Pretty narrow activity but a winning trade for us in the GBPUSD. See below.
Here's the US Dollar Index 5-minute chart for the session with our market directional tool:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B for that 45-50 pip range, second half stopped:


NZDUSD Signal with the Seeker and ADR

Let's have an educational discussion about the importance of lining up key tools where we can measure turning points in the market from energy construction and really apply them when the market hits a major support or resistance point. We view the start of the Forex session as 5 pm EST, which is 14:00 on these charts on Pacific Time. Here is the first several hours of the NZDUSD action Thursday evening from the start of the session through the first few hours of the European session:

Clearly, the activity picks up with the European session start. We like to see volume and activity for the purposes of spotting trade setups. One of key tools, the Seeker, measures market energy by using a specific bar counting mechanism. After we get 9 bars that meet the counting criteria in one direction, we then look for the counting mechanism to terminate. When that happens, the tool draws a dashed box around that area of the chart. This represents a potential exhaustion point in the market. So let's see how this plays out now that activity has picked up for a few hours with the European session:

At this point, we've already had one box completion where the NZDUSD met our count criteria and ran in to R1 from the Pivot series (blue line). You can use this as a short entry in the market, and for several hours, the market doesn't head higher, so the energy was exhausted. Then, the market starts to head up again and we get another 9 bar count that leads to the completion of another Seeker box. This time, it is lines up against the dashed green line. What is that green line? That is the Average Daily Range high boundary for the NZDUSD. What that means is that the NZDUSD currently has traded an average of 93 pips per session over the last six months. At that green line, the distance from the low of the session (back near the start at 5 pm EST in this case) to the green line is 93 pips:

It often matters by itself, but in this case, we're also hitting that key area that means that the market has covered the range that it covers on average at the same time that the Seeker tool is getting an exhaustion signal. Again, that gives us a short entry with a stop a little bit over the highs. And how does this work? Let's see the rest of the session:

A 50-pip move back to the VWAP. The combination of the Average Daily Range line with our Seeker signal gave us two trades. One stopped for a small loss, and the other worked for 50 pips.
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