Futures Calls Recap for 2/9/15
About as dull of a session as you can get. The ES Opening Range trade worked, but that was about it. See the ES section below for the trade recap, which had to trigger 3 times to get a partial. NASDAQ volume was weak at only 1.5 billion shares.
Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
The call triggered short at A at 2042.50 and stopped. Went again a few minutes later and stopped. Went again at B after lunch, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/9/15
A dull start to the week with only a partial trade even triggering and the GBPUSD in a 60 pip range. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
The GBPUSD didn't even go 2 pips past the trigger on the bid, so at most 33% of the trade triggered using our order staggering rules, and maybe not even any if you used 2 pips for the starting entry. If a piece triggered, it stopped:
Tradesight January 2015 Futures Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2014
Number of trades: 17
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 52.9%
Net ticks: +3.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2015
Number of trades: 10
Number of losers: 2
Winning percentage: 83.3%
Net ticks: +56 ticks
Well that was a solid month. With the Opening and Institutional Range plays (which aren't counted in the results) working almost daily, we're making less of the regular calls as we usually already have trades on early. However, the calls we did make hit a historic high with an 83.3% win rate. Add that to everything that worked with the Opening Range, Institutional Range, and Value Area setups, and it was quite a start to the year. Ranges have been largely good for futures, even if some days aren't as interesting for stocks themselves because we drift a lot. I see no reason that this will end anytime soon.
Tradesight January 2015 Forex Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2014
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 56.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +180 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2015
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 43.4%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row
Net pips: -50 pips
An interesting month. It started out extremely good and we were up 155 pips in the first 10 days with only one loser. We then had a couple of back and forth trades, and then the Swiss National Bank threw their surprise curveball into the mix, shocking the markets with the mother of all spikes. Although we had a couple of winners after that (and a couple of the trades ended up working if you were awake to take them a second time), it shouldn't go without notice that everything changed after the Swiss move. We haven't lost 6 trades in a row in over 2 years, and we ended the month on a 6-loser run, costing us 135 pips. I don't expect that this is suddenly normal. The ranges are still fine. The market is just behaving a little less technically, probably as a result of what happened. It's still a small blip compared to the results of 2014.
Stock Picks Recap for 2/6/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CTRX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
ONNN gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's YELP triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His BABA triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
TEVA triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
Mark's MXIM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Mark's GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's TWTR triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His FB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GPRO triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 2/6/15
Mixed results in the Opening Range plays today finally (they don't seem to do as well on Fridays on average), and the ES long over R2 call never triggered. We did have a call under the Pivot in the late afternoon that set and worked great. See that section below. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.8 billion shares. The markets gapped up, went higher, went flat pretty quick, and then came back in over lunch and sold off in the last hour.
Net ticks: +6 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and didn't work. You'll note that it triggered long at B but this was also a Comber 13 sell signal on that timeframe, so not something to take. It later triggered long at C and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked and also triggered long at B and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play triggered long at A but was over 6 points above the range boundary in the one bar, so too extended:
ES:
Triggered short under Pivot at 2051.75 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stopped twice and stopped the second half also for 6 tick:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/6/15
We stopped out of the second half of the trade from the prior session for 100 pips and then had a new winner only if you got executed on the NFP news spike, which isn't always easy. See EURUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
EURUSD:
Stopped out of the second half of the prior day's trade at A for 100 pips. New trade triggered short at B on the NFP news, hit first target at C, and then after adjusting the stop twice, closed the second half at D for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 2/5/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SIMO triggered long (with market support) and worked (it also swept the trigger by a penny in the first minute, which you could take if you want, worked anyway)...yet another main pick that worked well this week:
SLAB gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's NTRS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's PCLN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Mark's BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
I threw up a small size GS long that triggered in the last hour when the markets started to head for highs, but the move failed and the stock went nowhere:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 3 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 2/5/15
Once again, the Opening Range Plays worked, so see that section below. The markets gapped up and never looked back (we were above the Pressure Thresholds). Sadly, the ES never really touched a level and broke until the last 30 minutes, when we had a winner in the ES that I soft called in the Lab since it was so late in the day. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.9 billion shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play also worked:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play also worked:
ES:
Note the nice trigger that we traded in the Lab as a soft call because it was so late over R2 at A that went enough for a partial:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/5/15
A nice winner for the session in the EURUSD that did not stop out first. See that section below. We are still holding the second half of the trade.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long to the left of the chart and the letter A, but gave you hours to enter as it just sat right above UBreak. It did pull back to B, and the low of that is 1.13318. A stop should have been at 1.1330 (20 pips back from the 1.1352 entry level plus the spread of 2). It then went on to hit the first target at C and we are still holding the second half with a stop under R1 at D:
