Hi Traders,
A good Monday to you! I have to admit, it was an amazing Tampa Bay weekend; I mean, it was the perfect illustration of “why” this time of years our state fills-up with out-of-staters driving very large cars, doing below the speed limit and with one directional flashing on, then off, then on, then… for miles and miles on any Florida Interstate. Yes, we love them. And, yes, May will be here soon.
Okay, the COT charts are here: https://tradesight.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/COT-3-18-11.pdf
Everything we discussed previously (as in last time) has continued in the same direction this past week, meaning if a currency was at extremes between the commercials and specs then, it is more extreme now. If it was in the middle of a move toward extreme levels, the direction hasn’t changed. And, if it was in a state of confusion, like the yen, it still is.
I will note that if one is looking for dollar bull, you’ll probably have to pay a private investigator to find one for you. To excerpt one of my letters: “Everyone is bearish on the dollar. Many newsletter writers are bearish on the dollar. Magazine headlines scream warnings of a dollar disaster. Financial TV talking heads are universally gloomy on the greenback. And while I agree with them over the long term, we’re ready to see a big dollar rally (and a euro fall) in the short term.”
My point, exactly. So, I suggest one continues to note what the COT charts are telling us while keeping an eye the price charts for longer-term setups (i.e., daily and 4-hour).
Cheers and great trading,
Clay
