Hi Traders,
Well, I don’t know what it’s like in the rest of the civilized world, but it sure is cold here in Tampa Bay. Believe it or not, I actually wore socks on both Friday AND Saturday night. And, today, while I’m not wearing ’em, I probably should be. But, I’m loving the weather… it’s apropos for the Season: Kind of “merry”, which is putting me in the holiday mood.
About this week’s COT:
Interesting, but no surprises. The US Dollar has gained strength as the specs have been buying it, especially against the euro and pound. And, I say “no surprises” because we saw the turn setting-up on the charts as the commercials and specs were recently 180-degrees out from each other. Personally, I’m glad, as who really wants to see their home currency get the tar kicked out of it? Of course, fundamentally, dollar strength makes little sense, but I’m following the charts:
They never lie.
The New Zealand kiwi, aussie and swissy are being sold but the specs, currently, which, again was foreshadowed by the COT charts, while the Canadian dollar is in a gray area. Still, I’d expect the dollar to gain strength against it, too. Are these long term moves? I don’t believe they are. Remember, fundamentally, US Dollar strength makes little sense when compared to the commodity currencies, such as New Zealand, Australia and Canada, whose countries actually produce and export something.
Gold and silver are at all-time highs, but I have to keep asking, with all the attention they’re getting, is a top (even if just in the shorter term) coming? Remember, markets top on enthusiasm and there’s certainly a lot of that for both of these shiny metals. I say, keep an eye on momentum, which looks to be waning.
Go here to see this week’s charts:
That’s my take on the COT for 12-03-10, until next time…
Be very well,