Tradesight September 2012 Futures Results

Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from August can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2012

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 54.8%
Net ticks: +6.5
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2012

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Net ticks: +17.5
September started out strong after Labor Day, but there were still a lot of flatter, light-volume days. In fact, we only had 16 days in the month that a trade triggered. However, our total number of trades was up for the month (35), so there is some activity picking up. The first week of the month looked strong out of the gate, and I thought we might be back to a more normal environment, but everything after that thinned out a bit.
We closed the month with 17.5 ticks in net gains, which is nice but nothing spectacular. Our system continues to reflect a good, low-risk strategy though. We won about 55% of our triggered trades, and our stop-loss management system doesn't let anything get too far out of control to the downside. The issue remains that less than 6 trading days this month saw ranges above the 6-month average daily range (ADR), which isn't enough for some of the bigger winners to play out.
We look forward to October and November, which are typically two of the better trading months of the year, to see if volume and range comes back like it started to at the beginning of September.


Tradesight September 2012 Futures Results

Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from August can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2012

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 54.8%
Net ticks: +6.5
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2012

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Net ticks: +17.5
September started out strong after Labor Day, but there were still a lot of flatter, light-volume days. In fact, we only had 16 days in the month that a trade triggered. However, our total number of trades was up for the month (35), so there is some activity picking up. The first week of the month looked strong out of the gate, and I thought we might be back to a more normal environment, but everything after that thinned out a bit.
We closed the month with 17.5 ticks in net gains, which is nice but nothing spectacular. Our system continues to reflect a good, low-risk strategy though. We won about 55% of our triggered trades, and our stop-loss management system doesn't let anything get too far out of control to the downside. The issue remains that less than 6 trading days this month saw ranges above the 6-month average daily range (ADR), which isn't enough for some of the bigger winners to play out.
We look forward to October and November, which are typically two of the better trading months of the year, to see if volume and range comes back like it started to at the beginning of September.


Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/12

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ARUN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's QCOR triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:

His GOOG triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial):

His IBM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's CAT triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

His CLF triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His ALXN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

His FB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 7 did not. Easily the worst trigger to win ratio of the year, and no surprise on end of quarter.


Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/12

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ARUN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's QCOR triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:

His GOOG triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial):

His IBM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's CAT triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

His CLF triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His ALXN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

His FB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 7 did not. Easily the worst trigger to win ratio of the year, and no surprise on end of quarter.


Futures Calls Recap for 9/28/12

Not an exciting ending to the month, although we expected that since it is also end of quarter. There were a total of 5 trades that triggered on the ES. Two winners and three losers. See that section below.
Net ticks: -11 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:


ES:
My call for the gap fill triggered long at 1436.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. Mark's short at 1429.50 triggered at B and stopped for 7 ticks, and then again at C and stopped for 7 ticks. The long triggered again at D, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped the second half under the entry (if you took it in the middle of lunch). After basing under that level, it triggered again at E, hit first target for 6 ticks, and raised the stop to finally close at 1438.25:


Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/12

Another sweep session as expected to almost wrap up September (Sunday's calls will count for September) and what will probably be our one negative month of the year. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (nothing specific to note this week), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Crossed the Value Area perfectly. Triggered short at B and stopped:


Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/12

Another sweep session as expected to almost wrap up September (Sunday's calls will count for September) and what will probably be our one negative month of the year. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (nothing specific to note this week), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Crossed the Value Area perfectly. Triggered short at B and stopped:


Stock Picks Recap for 9/27/12

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, IDCC triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

ALTR triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

NTAP triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.


Futures Calls Recap for 9/27/12

One stop out and one bigger winner from Mark in the ES today for net gains. See that section below. Volume dropped sharply from what we were seeing earlier in the week, but that's no surprise considering we're heading into the end of the quarter on Friday. NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion.
Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:


ES:
Mark's short triggered at 1431.00 at A and stopped. His long triggered at 1434.75 at B, hit first target at B, and raised stop a few times and stopped the final piece 1440.00 at C for 21 ticks:


Forex Calls Recap for 9/27/12

Surprise! Today, after months of testing and weeks of work, we rolled out our revised FX Levels service. This includes additional levels on the market, including the Pressure Thresholds that have worked so well in futures. We now have:
Break Levels
Value Area
Pressure Thresholds
4 Tri-Star Levels
Expanded Pivot Series (R4 through S4)
The existing eSignal tool will not work going forward. The newest version of the tool can be downloaded from the website by going to the About Us menu and eSignal tools when you are NOT logged in. The fastest thing to do is to close eSignal, uninstall the Tradesight Installer Suite from Control Panel, and then install the new one from the website. All of your studies should still work, except you'll have to remove the FX Levels 1.3 from each chart and add the FX Levels 1.4 tool.
As you can see in the charts below, the Value Areas are now shaded, which is a very useful visual indicator as many people have commented about the Futures tool (which has had this since March). In addition, you can turn on/off each level if you don't want some.
And finally, there is now backtesting built into the tool. If you right click on the chart and go into Edit Studies for the tool, you can put in a date in the first field and hit OK. The Levels will be redrawn on your chart for that date, so you can see how they lined up that day (or use Bar Replay mode to make it play out live). Any date prior to today's will only show the starred levels, Breaks, and Value Areas.
We will be adding a segment to the Forex course soon regarding the Pressure Thresholds and their use.
Meanwhile, another day of no action and stop outs in the EURUSD. See that section below as we head into Friday and wind up Q3.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped overnight (note the use of the UPT). Triggered short at B and stopped: