Tradesight Seeker Example on Daily JCOM

I've been doing daily highlights this week of the Seeker tool in action in our Market Blog. The last two were about the Seeker in Forex on a 5-minute chart.Based on rapid gowth in the LED lighting stocks, in particular LED Hut,best place to buy led ceiling lights (one FX pair, and one the US Dollar Index).
Today, I wanted to back the tool out a bit and show it on a longer term timeframe, which is the daily chart. We'll use JCOM, which is a short idea today from a breakdown perspective, but already did a lot of great work with the Seeker.
Let's start back in August when a new Seeker upward count began. Here it is only 2 bars in so far:

Now, we achieved 9-bar status 7 days later:

The red line is thus the "Static Trendline" of the Setup count, which means that it is the lowest point during the setup phase, and it can be a "trade to target" if the stock reverses. The red line is $27.18.
Another note is that even though we got the 9, the lookback criteria for the setup phase continued for two more bars. Once that fails, the tool draws a dashed box around the whole Seeker setup, what I call "box completion":

The concept from here is that potentially, the high of the range of the box with a Setup complete is resistance. Energy has run out. You're looking to get short up in that area. There are a variety of methods to pick the exact entry (wait for a retest of the highs, go short if the stock breaks the low of a prior day, etc.). Any of these gets you short up in this area, and the stock continued to find resistance up there for two weeks:

Finally, it starts to rollover:

Note that in the process, a 9-bar setup to the DOWNSIDE is forming, which means that if we are short, a place to cover might be if we get the 9 bar down move, which would then suggest exhaustion to the downside:

What's amazing and shows the precision of the tool is what happens in the next few bars. The 9 count completes, and the stock reaches down to $27.20, two cents above the red Static Trendline, before bouncing:

Talk about a "trade to target."


Stock Picks Recap for 9/29/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LNCR gapped over the trigger, no play.
ADTN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

In the Messenger, Rich's GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His JPM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AIG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

His YOKU triggered short (with market support) and worked:

KLAC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's CMG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked for a point:

His DECK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GS triggered short (with market support) and did not work:

In total, that's 13 trades triggering with market support, 10 of them worked, 3 did not.


FOREX Calls Recap for 9/29/11

Lots of winners in the session, including additional calls for the European session since our first call went early. See GBPUSD and EURUSD below.
US Dollar Index intraday with market direction (once again, check out the Seeker counts and their predictive power):

New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target to the pip at B, raised stop and it stopped in the morning at C:

GBPUSD:
Second half of short from prior day stopped in the money at A. New trade triggered long at B, hit first target at C, closed second half right under entry at D in the morning:


Another Tradesight Seeker Tool Example

I've talked to a lot of people lately who are impressed by the Value of the Tradesight Seeker tool. Although it is ultimately the red 13-bar counts that give solid buy and sell reversal signals, the reality is that you can often find key market inflection points from the green 9-bar setup phase.
Let's talk about the US Dollar Index. If you are trading Forex pairs, it's typically useful to watch the US Dollar Index. Our courses teach a variety of tools to watch the Index and monitor it's direction, which offers a "top-down" look at what to expect from USD-based Forex pairs at the time.
But how does the Seeker tool work on the US Dollar Index intraday, let's say on the 5-minute timeframe, which is my most-used timeframe? Let's have a look at the price action from Tuesday night going into Wednesday on it with our Seeker tool (and market directional tool, which are the various green and red lines):

Remember, green numeric counts, which must be in sequential order, are the Setup phase of the process. If you don't meet the look back criteria for all 9 bars, the count is erased, so on that chart, you only see the completed setup phases for the session. There were three.
At point A, the market had bounced a bit off of lows and approached the mid-point (red line) of the session. That completed count was exactly a top.
At point B, we had extended sharply to new lows. That completed count was exactly the bottom.
There were no more completed counts for seven hours until late in the Forex trading day around 11 am PST (charts in PST). Then we had another 9-bar setup count, which topped at C and was the high.
It is extremely hard to suggest that this tool isn't something that can put money in your pocket when you see it work like this on so many symbols in all asset classes and all timeframes.


Tradesight Market Preview for 9/29/11

The SP posted a very weak day losing 20 handles. Price settled below the midpoint of the trading range and the CCI could be on its way to confirming a lower high.

The NQ tanked by 35 handles and closed below the midpoint of the regression channel. Bearish activity to be sure but not yet a change in trend. The CCI is very close to breaking and qualifying a lower high. A technical lower high is defined as a lower high followed by 2 lower lows. This technique weeds out pauses in a healthy trend.

Multi sector daily chart shows the rapid reversal of the XAU moving from relative strength to relative weakness.

The put/call ratio recorded a climatic reading of 1.33 which implies that enough protection has been acquired short-term to allow for upside in equity prices.

Intermarket charts:
The NDX continues to bullishly lead the SPX:

The OSX is trailing oil futures on a relative performance basis which is bearish for oil.

The SOX is bearishly lagging the NDX100. This is a classic bearish divergence.

The XAU is badly lagging gold futures which is negative for gold.

The SOX was the least bad major sector down 3% on the day. Note that using the Seeker countdown qualifier, price will have to drop to 339 to record the buy signal.

The BTK underperformed the Naz and settled right at the 2/8 Gann level. Note that this was the lowest close of the month

The BKX was lower by 3.5% and remains trapped in the same range.

The XAU matched the YTD low and recorded a new low close.

The OSX was last laggard on the day. This is a new low close on the move but not quite a new absolute low.


Tradesight Market Preview for 9/29/11

The SP posted a very weak day losing 20 handles. Price settled below the midpoint of the trading range and the CCI could be on its way to confirming a lower high.

The NQ tanked by 35 handles and closed below the midpoint of the regression channel. Bearish activity to be sure but not yet a change in trend. The CCI is very close to breaking and qualifying a lower high. A technical lower high is defined as a lower high followed by 2 lower lows. This technique weeds out pauses in a healthy trend.

Multi sector daily chart shows the rapid reversal of the XAU moving from relative strength to relative weakness.

The put/call ratio recorded a climatic reading of 1.33 which implies that enough protection has been acquired short-term to allow for upside in equity prices.

Intermarket charts:
The NDX continues to bullishly lead the SPX:

The OSX is trailing oil futures on a relative performance basis which is bearish for oil.

The SOX is bearishly lagging the NDX100. This is a classic bearish divergence.

The XAU is badly lagging gold futures which is negative for gold.

The SOX was the least bad major sector down 3% on the day. Note that using the Seeker countdown qualifier, price will have to drop to 339 to record the buy signal.

The BTK underperformed the Naz and settled right at the 2/8 Gann level. Note that this was the lowest close of the month

The BKX was lower by 3.5% and remains trapped in the same range.

The XAU matched the YTD low and recorded a new low close.

The OSX was last laggard on the day. This is a new low close on the move but not quite a new absolute low.


Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ACXM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work, actually only went a penny passed the trigger:

In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked for about a point:

ERTS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, although it clearly worked later:

BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn't work, although it did work when the market rolled:

NTES triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

SOHU triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's VFC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) late in the day and didn't work:

In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.


Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ACXM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work, actually only went a penny passed the trigger:

In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked for about a point:

ERTS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, although it clearly worked later:

BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn't work, although it did work when the market rolled:

NTES triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

SOHU triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's VFC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) late in the day and didn't work:

In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.


Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/11

Interesting session with lots of Seeker signals of use. I'm going to write up the US Dollar Index separately and post to the Blog tonight for discussion, but here it is with market direction lines and the Seeker:

Losers and a winner (still going) in the GBPUSD, see below.
New calls and Chat tonight. Rosh Hashanah holiday starts tomorrow, which can slow things down a bit.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early at A (just barely, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them both back in the morning and long triggered at C and stopped, but the better trade was the short as I said last night. That triggered at D, went EXACTLY to the VAL target at E (and bottomed out on a Seeker 9-bar setup) and still holding the second half:


Profitable GBPUSD Seeker Sell Signal

We've had a lot of interest in our Seeker tool lately, so I wanted to take some time to walk through a 13-bar Signal on today's GBPUSD 5-minute chart to show how the tool can be used.
We'll start with a look at the GBPUSD around 6:00 am PST / 9:00 am EST this morning (charts are PST). It is currently 7 bars into the SETUP phase of the Seeker tool, which are the green numbers. Once you get to 9 (see recent course for the count methodology); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES the setup is complete and in place:

A few bars later, we get the 9, so the Setup is in force. The red count is the actual Seeker Countdown using a non-sequential 2-bar look back from close of the bar to low of the bar two bars back. Note that the red count begins as soon as the green 9 is complete:

Also, understand that the 4-bar look back count that is used to generate the 9-bar green setup phase can actually continue beyond the 9th bar. Although you don't need those additional bars (i.e. they are not labeled 10, 11, etc.) for the red Countdown to begin, our tool draws a box around the setup count once the 4-bar look back is broken. So in this case, the Setup count methodology continued for four bars after the 9, and then the box is drawn:

Moving forward, we now see the red count underway. Remember that this count does NOT need to consecutive. Also the red line D is the Static Trendline of the setup count, which is the low of the range of that count:

Seeker signals are a test of patience. This one proceeds fairly quickly but still takes over an hour to get to the 10th red count. 3 to go at this point:

Finally, we get our 13 signal, which is a sell signal by default. You'll also see that the pink risk line begins to draw after that. Basically, the trade is to sell short at the 13 (or if you want to be conservative, sell when you break the low of a 5-minute bar after the 13) with a stop over the risk level:

The risk line is F, and the GBPUSD starts to roll without touching it:

Over the next 30 minutes, it works nicely as we shuffle into the end of day:

Ends up being about a 50 pip winner at that point. Hard to complain, and very easy to follow if you have time to watch. Note that this tool works on all asset classes and all timeframes equally.