The ES lost 2 on the day but there were some notable technical developments to talk about. Price made a new high but closed lower on the day. Also Tuesday’s candle engulfed the prior day’s which makes a better case for the bears. The only lacking ingredient was more volume. Note that the volume was higher than average but not decisive.
The NQ futures posted almost exactly the same day as the ES. The technicals are very similar and the rest of the week will be very important.
At key turning points it’s always useful to take a look at the DIA. This etf is a well traded basket that tracks the performance of the Dow Jones Industrials. At key turning points there is typically a surge in volume that is not always apparent in other trading vehicles. We don’t see one here.
The 10-day trin still has overbought energy:
The put/call ratio still has yet to record a super-climatic reading:
Multi sector daily chart:
The double top remains in place for both the Naz and broad market:
The SOX cross still has not followed through:
Longer-term traders always like to look at the Dow/gold cross. It has been moving in favor of stocks but hasn’t yet broken out. This will be the ULTIMATE buy confirmation.
The BKX continues to bearishly lag the SPX. There has been no higher high in the banks and it is holding back the broad market and keeping the double top in the conversation.
The bulls can point to the relative strength in the Ndx over the Spx. A higher high would be very bullish and a failure at the relative strength retest adds to the bear case.
Guess what, the defensive XAU was the top gun on the day. Surprise! Well, not rally, the XAU tracking GDX was one of our first long ideas and worked. Price closed above the active static trend line and when the June highs are taken out the 200dma and 8/8 Murrey math levels are in play.
The BKX was higher on the day but lost all of its relative strength intraday. Also intraday, the Seeker risk level was tested and it rejected the advance. The sell signal is still active and rallies should be sold until it is broken.
The SOX was exactly flat but did not break the 10ema. The 10ema is the deal breaker for the bulls.
The OSX posted a midrange outside day down:
Oil got stuffed by the 200dma.
Silver is attempting a saucer breakout: