Tradesight May 2019 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for April, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for April 2019
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 34
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (26.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 11 (32.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 14 (41.1%)
And for May?
Tradesight Stock Results for May 2019
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 56
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 18 (32.2%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 19 (33.9%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 19 (33.9%)
A better month, although the last day or two hurt a bit. We ended up with a net 66.1% win ratio, but at the end of the day, while that shows more losses than usual, there will still plenty of trades and a couple of big winners.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/31/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's TWTR triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
YELP triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
FB triggered short (with market support) and didn't go enough in either direction to count:
Rich's VEEV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, none of them worked, which is very unusual, but points back to not trading end of month days.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/29/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, INTU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Lots of other calls. Nothing else triggered.
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/28/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, JBHT gapped under the short trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's WDAY triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
BABA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/24/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no triggers.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's ADSK triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
PYPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/23/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SCVL gapped under, no play, unfortunately, big winner otherwise.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's URBN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AMBA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
WYNN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all of them worked. Good day.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/22/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no triggers.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, BABA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
In total, that's 0 trades triggering with market support.
Tradesight April 2019 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for March, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for March 2019
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 31
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 11 (35.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 9 (29%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 11 (35.5%)
And for April?
Tradesight Stock Results for April 2019
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 34
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (26.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 11 (32.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 14 (41.1%)
The market doldrums continue with a lot of narrow-range days. Only 34 trades triggered. Still, some nice winners, and overall, we had a 73.5% win ratio, which is fine. We're just not seeing the action we like to see, but sticking with the system keeps us out of trouble.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/21/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SFLY triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's COST triggered long (with market support) and worked to the Pressure Threshold as called in the room:
His TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked a little, but he specified that it would have been better after lunch:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/20/19
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no triggers.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, FSLR triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's PXD triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NVDA triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn't go enough in either direction to count.
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.