Stock Picks Recap for 2/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, FMCN and PRXL gapped over their triggers, no plays.
In the Messenger, GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.


Tradesight Market Preview for 3/1/11

The SP was higher by 7 on the day, settling between gap below from Thursday and the gap above from Tuesday. Price interacted with the near term DTL (green) and found buyers. Note on the chart that the MACD is still in a sell condition.

Naz was higher by 5, badly lagging the broad market as many of the high beta index members saw proactive selling. The Seeker exhaustion sell signal is still active for the NQ futures. The high from 2/22 will be a very key area this week so be sure to set an alarm for 2366.

The daily multi sector chart shows the pronounced strength of the current leadership from the energy names.

The 10-day Trin remains neutral, hovering around the 1.0 baseline.

The put/call ratio never recorded a climatic high where institutions were rushing for put protection. This could be unfinished business.

The defensive XAU index was top gun, closing at the high of the current bounce. Monday’s close exceeded the 50% retracement which implies that further upside is probable.

The OSX recorded a new high on the move and a new closing high. Keep an eye on the 100% measured move target.

The BTK remains range bound:

The BKX was lower on the day and is close to a zero line break in the already negative MACD. A close below the zero line could kick in downside momentum.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day. The Seeker exhaustion signal is still active,

Oil closed near the low of the day:

Gold was little changed on the day and is 9 bars up which completes a Seeker setup phase.


Forex Calls Recap for 2/28/11

Let's start by taking a look at the US Dollar Index intraday chart with our directional tool from the start of the session (5 pm EST which is 15:00 in my time zone):

Note that the direction was up early, and then we broke to downward direction when we crossed the midpoint at A and never went back. Note also how specifically it failed at B and C, both of which would have flipped back to positive direction if it had gone above the line.
Unfortunately, our trade on the GBPUSD barely stopped before what would have been a nice winner. See that section below.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A after setting the trigger perfectly, and unfortunately, stopped at B on that little spike down under the Pivot, which then reversed and the trade worked great to C and beyond:


COT 2-25-11

Hi Traders,
An awesome Saturday morning to you! For some reason, I was up at 7:15, today. I have no idea why, but I'm not complaining! Nope, I have tons to do, including preparing this week's COT report for you guys. So, I better get busy ;-)
This week's COT charts are here
Gold and silver climbed this week, with silver hitting highs. Who's buying? The small guys and specs. Hmmm... what does that tell ya? It tells you the commercials, those groups with more money than the Fed can print in a month, are selling. They're selling gold, too, while the small traders are buying it up like my ex-mother-in-law used to by Beenie Babies (she had boxes of those things... don't ask me why).
So, are these to shiny metals at a top? If you look at the gold chart, not the specs (green line) and commercials (orange line) were 180-degrees out not too long ago, which often presages a turn-around. Silver isn't showing the same thing, however. Instead, there's plenty of room before the "180-degree" indication comes into play. So, keep watching.
When it comes to the commodity currencies, the CAD is at extremes, which, as you know, is a heads up (see above explanation). The aussie isn't at extremes, and is sort of treading water. AUDUSD keeps hovering around parity and it appears the specs and small traders aren't sure where to go next. I mean, it's sort of a game of "Do or Dare". It makes sense to; after all, after such strong run-up to parity, do you want to be the guy who bets the aussie will go EVEN higher... before a correction, that is? NZD is has the specs and commercials at a standstill. With all the bad news there, lately, a longer-term "watch and see" attitude just seems prudent. Not exactly rocket science.
The pound is coming off extremes between the commercials and specs. As I mentioned last time, we might see another push north to the 1.64 area (GBPUSD); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES although it's really struggle at current resistance. Based on the COT reading, whether prices move higher or not, a change of direction is in the air.
Nothing new to report on the yen or euro, BUT a look at the US Dollar Index shows the commercials and specs are 180-degrees apart. As I've said before, there's a better than good chance, in my opinion, that USD will gain strength as we head deeper into the year.
"Huh?", say some. "But what about all the bad press and crazy stuff the gov't is doing... you know, the out-of-control" spending and budget cuts and lay-offs and, and, and...."
Well, as you might have observed, whenever sentiments are at extremes, this is usually when markets turn. Remember internet stocks and real estate?
Okay, that's it for now. I hope your weekend is rockin'.
Be well and live large!
Clay


Stock Picks Recap for 2/24/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, the top short SEIC triggered short (with market support) and ended up not working as the market reversed:

ONXX triggered short (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked for a partial, but too hard to get:

CGNX triggered short (with market support) and did not work:

In the Messenger, COST triggered long (with market support) and did not work:

NFLX triggered long on two separate trade calls from the same area (both with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES the first didn't work and the second did:

Mark's SWKS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

EBAY triggered long (with market support) and didn't work enough to count before it ran out of time, so neither a gain or loss:

In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 4 did not. I believe that is the first day of 2011 with under 50% winners.


GBPUSD Breakout Projection Using MOB

MOB (Make or Break) Projection for GBPUSD Breakout
There is a lot of focus right now on the fact that the US Dollar Index looks extremely weak and is breaking some key technical indicator levels that threaten a potentially big downside move. One part of that equation is that weakness in the US Dollar would likely lead to a breakout of the cup and handle formation over 1.6299 on the GBPUSD, which is a multi-month and clean cup and handle formation, as seen here:

If we look at the chart with our 9-bar Seeker energy counting mechanism, we see a few key points. First, the beginning of the cup formation starts back at point A, which was a 9-bar move to the upside that topped the GBPUSD:

Second, on that same chart, the low is formed at B at the end of a 9-bar move down from the Seeker calculation. Third, the pair paused at C, another 9-bar top. So we have to say that the GBPUSD daily chart is very in tune with the 9-bar counting mechanism. What does that mean for now, where a cup and handle is set up at the end of that chart above at D, but we are 7 bars up on the daily? Is the breakout looming or should we pause after we get a 9 bar top signal?
Our analysis suggests that we could easily pause here ahead of that breakout and still meet the objectives of the breakout. If we draw a MOB (Make or Break) line in Elliott Wave theory from the last top, we get this line:

The most likely point of hitting the line is between the black vertical points, which means that we are still early. That means that we could get a 9-bar count, then pause for a bit to absorb that energy, and still breakout and hit that MOB line in the right place. Just something to focus on.
Take a trial of our services in your asset class here. Have a look at our Video Lesson of the Day on the home page here. Follow us on Twitter here.


Forex Calls Recap for 2/24/11

Couple of losers for us finally after a decent last two weeks. EURUSD one way and GBPUSD the other as the two diverged overnight and didn't trade much range anyway. See both below.
New calls and Chat tonight. Second look at GDP in the morning is not usually a big deal.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A early (half size) and stopped at B:

To view the full report, take a trial of the service.


Market Preview for 2/24/11

NDX lost 20 points on 2.3 billion NASDAQ shares, which is even heavier than the prior day's volume:

S&P lost 8, but it is barely holding the main trendline that I follow:

SOX lost 8 and broke the key trendline:

NBI lost 7 and is cracking a base:

Oil continues to be the story, hitting over $100:


Stock Picks Recap for 2/23/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AEIS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:

OVTI gapped under the short trigger, no play.
ONNN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

AKAM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

BRCM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work if you kept a stop to $0.15 or so, but otherwise, it did (we will count it as a loser):

DNDN triggered short (with market support) and did not work:

MIPS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

LEAP triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

Meanwhile, in the Messenger, AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

AIG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

GS triggered long (market direction was dead neutral at the time); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES worked a bit, I sold it flat, we won't count it:

In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, only 2 did not.


Forex Calls Recap for 2/23/11

Another winner in the GBPUSD as we came close to that daily chart breakout called in the Sunday report (don't miss!). See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight. Ranges were average, which is fine.
EURUSD:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C, raised stop and stopped at D: