Stock Picks Recap for 9/30/14

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.

From the report, SMCI triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

CSOD triggered short (with market support) and worked:

IRBT triggered short (with market support) and the market started curling back up so I posted a close just above the entry:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked nice:

In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 I closed early for a dime loss.


Futures Calls Recap for 9/30/14

No futures calls for the last day of the quarter, although Value Area players could have made an easy gain on the NQ when it opened above the VA. The markets gapped up small, filled the gaps, then the ES headed up to fill the prior session's gap, and that was the high. We closed about even as was expected for end of quarter window dressing on 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. Free to move again tomorrow.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.


Forex Calls Recap for 9/30/14

Basically a wash as we had a loser and a winner but at least we got some movement and saw some range as the Forex market looked more like it used to. See GBPUSD section below.

Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped out of the second half over the entry at D:


Stock Picks Recap for 9/29/14

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.

From the report, BRCD triggered long (with market support) and didn't go far enough either way to count, closed right around the trigger:

SONC triggered long (with market support) and had the same issue:

SINA gapped under the short trigger, no play.

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FDX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Mark's GILD triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not. GILD and SONC never went $0.20 against and closed at their triggers, but I closed them long before the end of the session for minor losses when they didn't go anywhere.


Futures Calls Recap for 9/29/14

A nice winner with a Value Area Play in the ES. See that section below. The markets gapped down and made their way back up, with the NQ filling the gap and the ES not quite getting there. We are in end of quarter window dressing mode. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.5 billion shares.

Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.

As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1964.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop twice and stopped at 1965.75:


Forex Calls Recap for 9/29/14

A late trigger in the GBPUSD didn't work. See that section below.

Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:


Tradesight August 2014 Futures Results

Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Tick Results for July 2014

Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 66.7%
Net ticks: +17.5 ticks

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.

2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Tick Results for August 2014

Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 60%
Net ticks: -9.5 ticks

August is usually slow with summer in full swing, and this one was particularly poor, with market volumes dropping off sharply after the first week and staying in the gutter through the end of the month and Labor Day. It should be pointed out that we were green the first week of the month while there was volume, but then ended up with a small loss for the month once volume dropped off and the markets were just stuck and immobile day after day after day. It got so bad in the last day of the month that we stopped making calls. September is already much-improved, however.


Tradesight August 2014 Forex Results

Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for July 2014

Number of trades: 18
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 55.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +60 pips

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for August 2014

Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 61.9%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: -20 pips

August is almost always the slowest month of the year for Forex, and this one was no exception. We had several days where no trades triggered, and even though the win ratio was a solid 61.9%, the problem was that the biggest winners were only 40 pips total (once) and then 25 (twice). That's because there was no follow-through. Things are already improving in September though.


Stock Picks Recap for 9/26/14

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.

From the report, nothing triggered.

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, CELG triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

Mark's CAT triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.


Futures Calls Recap for 9/26/14

A boring session on light volume to start with the ES stuck in the Value Area, but we broke out and ran (on no volume) in the afternoon anyway and got a nice winner out of it for 40 ticks to the final exit. See ES section below. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.5 billion shares.

Net ticks: +23 ticks.

As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1969, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop a few times and closed at 1979 for 40 ticks: