Tradesight Market Preview for 11/1/11

The ES gapped below the 200dma and then lost more ground to close on the lows down 32 on the day. Price is still above the 10ema and as long as it remains so is still short-term bullish. One bearish feature was that price settled below the low closes of both March and June 2011.

The NQ futures settled right at the midpoint of the trend channel and also above the 10ema. Keep a close eye on the active static trend line which continues to be bull repellent.

A funny thing happened on the way to the best performing October in decades…….it moves so fast that the 10-day Trin never had a chance to record an overbought reading! The NYSE Trin is closer to an oversold rather than overbought reading. Good news for the bulls.

The put/call ratio is neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow Transports rallied exactly to the prior breakdown and 200dma and found failure. This is not unusual and doesn’t mean that the advance has terminated it is typical of price action that is extended and testing a major level.

The SOX declined back to the September high. This is key near-term support.

The XAU is midrange and otherwise featureless.

The BKX was much weaker than the broad market and retreated back to the very important 40 level. It is very important for this leading index to hold the 38 level. If this cannel low is lost the market is truly sick and heading lower.

The OSX is still working in a very complex pattern. The most important part of the puzzle will be taking out the down sloping overhead DTL.

Gold was a little lower on the day. Look to the live angle to hold price in the very short term.

Oil is trapped between the 200dma and the 4/8 Gann level.


Stock Picks Recap for 10/31/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
We only had long ideas in the report, so nothing triggered there.
In the Messenger, Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich's GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His MS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 of them worked great.


Forex Calls Recap for 10/31/11

Another nice winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat this evening. Other than the move we caught, it was a fairly slow session with the snow issues back East.
Here is the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and locked in about 80 pips to the final exit at C:


Stock Picks Recap for 10/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
NTGR triggered long (with market support) and initially just worked enough for a partial, then would have probably stopped you out, but the trade sure worked great after that:

In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX call at the open triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great:

YOKU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

BIIB triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work initially:

GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, and 1 didn't.


Stock Picks Recap for 10/28/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
NTGR triggered long (with market support) and initially just worked enough for a partial, then would have probably stopped you out, but the trade sure worked great after that:

In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX call at the open triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great:

YOKU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

BIIB triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work initially:

GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, and 1 didn't.


Forex Calls Recap for 10/28/11

Closed out the EURUSD from the prior session for 250 pips, and then we had a loser and a winner in the GBPUSD. See both sections below. European sessions have been flat this week, hope that isn't something regular now.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we'll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then glance at the US Dollar Index below.
Time change this weekend in Europe and then next weekend in the US.
EURUSD:
Stopped second half of prior day's long under LBreak at A for 250 pip winner:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at B, hit first target at C, closed final at end of chart at D:


Stock Picks Recap for 10/27/11

With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, all four long ideas gapped over their triggers, no plays on any.
ATHN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

IDCC triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:

In the Messenger, Rich's AKAM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:

RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's PCLN triggered short (with market support) and worked for two points, although it reversed very quickly:

His GMCR triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich's CF triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough:

In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, all 6 of them worked. Perfect day.


Forex Calls Recap for 10/27/11

There's a nice session. Even though the GBPUSD stopped for a small loss, the EURUSD worked great and is still going, almost 300 pips in the money as I write this. See both sections below.
US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening to wrap up the week.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, which looks like a blip now, still holding with a stop under the black line, way in the money:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and was looking good to start but stopped for 20+ pips just barely at B. Note that it then turned up and ran straight to R1 at C...to the pip:


Tradesight Market Preview for 10/27/11

The ES bounced back 13 handles to settle higher on the day but below the key 1250 level. As expected the market is “working” the 1250 area. Expect more of this in the days to come.

The NQ futures ended little changed with a small gain on the day. Price tested but held the 200dma. Keep a close eye on the MACD which is just beginning to look vulnerable. It takes time for the momentum indicators in the daily time frame to change character so let the chart develop and be open minded to both sides of the tape in the next few candles.

The multi sector daily chart shows relative strength developing in the XAU again.

The 10-day NYSE Trin is getting closer to the 1.35 oversold threshold again.

The OSX may be developing strength vs. the underlying oil futures which would be bullish for the sector. This is still a very immature divergence but one very worth monitoring.

The OSX was the top gun on the day, closing at a new high on the move and setting up for a move towards the 50% fib retracement.

The BKX posted an inside day, still below the key 40 level.

The SOX was little changed and remains below the September highs.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day. Price settled above both the 10 and 50 period moving averages and is still in the same range.

Gold broke bullishly broke back above the defining trend line. Keep a close eye on how price interacts with the 50dma just overhead.

Oil was lower on the day but held above the 90 near term support level.


Stock Picks Recap for 10/26/11

A great day of trades!
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, WCRX triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:

NDAQ triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In the Messenger, Rich's BIIB triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:

His GMCR triggered short (with market support) and worked:

RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AIG triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich's PCLN triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

Rich's BP triggered long (without market support) and worked some:

His FSLR triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His UA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:

AAPL triggered long late in the session (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not. We had some big winners.