Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling dow
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: +100
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2012
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 28.1%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: -130
There is a reason that we moved to half size in August as ranges died down for the key summer vacation month and remained half size through September. The ranges just haven’t come back yet, although September started with a nice week (after Labor Day) with two big 100 pip winners. But, the lack of range and action led to a lot of stop outs. Typically, our win ratio is between 50-60%. September fell off a cliff, with only 9 winners out of 32 trades, or 28.1% wins. That only happens each year when ranges get this bad.
This gives us our first negative month of the year, with 130 pips of net losses. Our pip totals don’t reflect the fact that our trading was half size. We just count net pips. We will continue to be half size until we see better ranges for a few days at some point here.
The six month average daily range on the GBPUSD dropped under 100 pips for the first time I can recall in seven years of trading this stuff. There really isn’t much to say. The market needs to start moving, and it will at some point.