Before we get to Joly’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2013
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 62%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +210
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2013
Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 56.7%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +135
The ranges died down again late in the month, but there was some action early. We usually look for a slowdown going into August, and we got it. Therefore, we have now adjusted our size down to half size moving forward as we anticipate the slow August season due to summer Holidays. We will adjust our size back up accordingly.
Note that the catalyst for lowering our size is to see a poor week play out, and we got that in the last week of July where we actually lost 25 pips, including 3 losers in a row (the only time in the month that happened) and it was the only week of the month with net losses.
Interestingly, the 6-month average daily ranges went UP in July, with the EURUSD going from 107 to 108 and the GBPUSD going from 116 to 121. This is more a result of poor ranges dropping off six months ago than increased ranges in July, however.
It is still possible for August to be a decent month in Forex. We have had good ones before. But, our experience tells us that when ranges lighten up and less people are trading, we lower our size and expectations and trade more cautiously.