Hi Traders,
It’s “Brrr cold” here, in Tampa Bay: a balmy 44-degrees… and it’s not even 7:00 pm. Yes, it may be time for a move south. And, that’s about all I can say about that. Okay, let’s stop messing around and get to the COT.
Click on this link for the latest COT charts.
The US dollar has lost a little footing, but overall, the markets only look like they’re correcting, meaning, I believe the dollar will continue to move higher. From a fundamental view, while the US economy isn’t exactly on solid ground(the understatement of the year?); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES Europe, with Greece and Ireland having already been thrown a life jacket, Spain, Portugal and Italy are off the boat and furiously treading water. And, this is what everyone is looking at. So, the US is kind of “off the hook” for the moment, or at least not in the spotlight. Note the specs are selling the euro and the commercials are buying right now (this is not just euro vs. USD, but all other currencies).
Two commodity currencies (AUD and CAD) can’t really get traction, especially CAD, which is flummoxing, as neither the commercials nor specs appear certain about what to do. The aussie is a little less confused, but not much. After hitting parity with USD, and with little surprise, it moved south. Currently, though, the specs look like they’re gunning for the November highs. That said, it doesn’t look the same for the USD vs. CAD. The third commodity currency, NZD, has behaved perfectly. When the commercials and specs where 180-degrees apart, price reversed and the move has been very clean so far.
The swissie had turned, with the commercials buying and specs selling, but the current charts show a shift in sentiment. The yen while not as pronounced, is in the same position. The pound is another story; the specs are selling and the commercials are buying. pretty clear, according to the charts
Gold and silver are trying to move higher, though, with silver, the specs and commercials are holding right now. The chart shows the specs buying gold last week and the commercials selling it, and I’m watching to see if the last highs will be broken. The double top (November’s high and December’s high–so far); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES came with bearish divergence; so, momentum is declining as price approaches these highs, telling us that specs are skittish.
That’s it for now.
Stay warm, and trade to trade well,