Stock Picks Recap for 1/6/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TRMB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
SNCR triggered short (with market support) and worked but would have been hard to get, went fast:
KERX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His FB triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
SINA triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Mark's BABA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
The second SINA call triggered short (with market support) and worked:
LNKD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Mark's AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 10 trades triggering with market support, 9 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/6/15
Two small winners and a loser, plus some opportunities again with the Opening Range plays, which are included below. See the ES section. The markets were very choppy on light volume early, but eventually picked up a downside bias and volume held up so we closed at 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range:
NQ Opening Range:
ES Institutional Range:
NQ Institutional Range:
ES:
Triggered long at 2020.75 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered long again a few minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry. Mark then had a short trigger at B at 2013, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stop the second piece at the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/6/15
Another winner, this one still going, on the GBPUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over the yellow line at 1.5210:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/5/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TIVO triggered short (with market support) and worked a little, but not enough to count either way:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn't work the first time, worked later:
NTAP triggered short (with market support) and worked:
WYNN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/5/15
Once again, the Opening Range plays and Institutional Range plays worked great on the ES and NQ, so I will show them below. There was no need to make additional calls beyond those. Volume was much better than last week but still lighter than we'd like to see, and so the futures action was choppy after the first hour or so. Anything else I might have been considering wouldn't have worked.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
Opening Range play worked on the ES, triggered short at A after setting the range in the first 2 minutes and triggering short at A:
Same with the NQ:
Institutional Range play worked on the ES after setting the range for the first 15 minutes and triggered short at A:
Same with the NQ:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/5/15
A small winner to start the week. The pairs all gapped on the open, which is fairly unusual, and messed up my original call ideas. I posted new ones, but the session was awkward due to the gaps. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, the first target should have been LPT and not S2 as I posted, but I ended up posting to close at B for 15 pips or so, which ended up being the right thing:
Tradesight Forex End of 2014 Summary and Results
One of the things that I preach when it comes to trading is that it doesn’t matter what you do in a day, or a week, or even a month. You’re putting together a year. If you can’t make money in a year, then your system isn’t working. But even a good system is going to come up against an environment for a while that it isn’t ideally suited for. And we’re now 9 years into our Forex service, and I have always said that each year, I would expect one or two months of losses, and if it is August or September, don’t be surprised, because those are typically slow months.
Our goal is to target a win ratio between 50-60 percent for the YEAR. Our system already keeps stops tight and let’s winners run if they want to.
In 2014, we had 264 triggers off of our main trade calls (again, if you have taken the courses, you can find much more to do, including trading some of the pairs beyond the EURUSD and GBPUSD, using Value Areas, the Seeker/Comber etc., but this is just about the main calls that we make in the Messenger/Twitter feed). 150 were winners. That’s at 56.8% win ratio, which is in the high side of our targeted range of 50-60%, and almost exactly the same as the prior year (57.2% winners in 2013).
If you take the 12 months in order, here were the pip gains or losses: +155, +50, -125, +70, +115, +90, +60, -20, +30, +80, +255, and +180. As you can see, the year picked up in the last three months once the US Dollar finally broke out of a narrow 11 month range. We had over 500 pips of gains just in the last 3 months.
The net gains for the year were 940 pips!
You can browse the net results of each month by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight December 2014 Forex Results
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2014
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 7
Winning percentage: 66.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +255 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2014
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 56.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +180 pips
Despite the Holidays, this was a pretty solid month for us in closing out 2014. There was one run at triple expiration where 4 trades in a row stopped out, and that cost us 100 pips at a time that we usually trade half size because the Forex markets die off for triple expiration in December. However, the rest of the month was still solid, and we had a solid last two weeks. Ranges continue to expand, and we look forward to 2015 looking more consistently like the last two months of 2014.
Tradesight December 2014 Futures Results
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2014
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 45%
Net ticks: -32 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2014
Number of trades: 17
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 52.9%
Net ticks: +3.5 ticks
December is always awkward. Our Opening Range plays continue to work almost daily in the ES and NQ, but we didn't even post any official calls for most of the last two weeks of the month (and year) because volume dropped off as usual with the Holiday. Back to work in January. We still met our usual win criteria for the month, but not much followed through.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/2/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no calls.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, WYNN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 0 trades triggering with market support, and the only call that we did take worked great. Always nice when the first trade of the year is a winner.