Posts Tagged ‘value areas’

A Value Area Walkthrough

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

A Value Area play is a trade based on the “market memory” of the prior day’s trading activity. It is a specific range from the prior day’s action that the market uses in a certain method with a high percentage of success. One of the main ways that we use the Value Area is to look for wide open Value Areas where a pair starts outside the Value Area, then enters the Value Area or breaks through a key support/resistance point just inside the Value Area, and then targets moving across the Value Area without breaking back outside of it.

On Wednesday, we had a Classic Value Area play on the GBPJPY. We focused in the Trading Lab on the break under the LBreak, which was just under the line blue (cyan) Value Area High line. The dark blue Pivot was also right there. So the goal was to go short under LBreak with a stop over VAH (in case it came back outside the Value Area) and a target of the cyan VAL. It triggered short at A, retested EXACTLY the VAH at B and didn’t stop out above it, and hit VAL target at C for a perfect Value Area trade:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/10

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Mixed session again and not much excitement, although some Value Areas did trigger. Ranges were light and that might about wrap it for the year.

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A and stopped. Triggered at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped:

GBPUSD:

If you properly stagger orders at the triggers, one third of the trade entered at A and stopped. We use order staggering to prevent us from getting into trades for full size that barely sweep the entry level:

EURJPY:

Note the Value Area here, which worked:

GBPJPY:

Note the Value Area here, which worked, high of the session was the Value Area High:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/22/10

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

The streak continues, and November is now officially a great trading month for us. Two new winners, very clean, to start the short week. See GBPUSD below in particular. Most pairs exceeded average daily range, which is good.

Here’s EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long nicely at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under Pivot at C unless you were awake to adjust (I wasn’t). Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half with a stop over LBreak red line:

AUDUSD:

Check out the clean Value Area play (from top light blue line to lower one):

GBPJPY:

Value Area worked here as well:

EURJPY:

And another Value Area that worked:

Why The FX Day Starts at 5 pm EST

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

It is very important when trading Forex to understand the importance of the “start of the day” even though it is essentially a 24-hour market. In the equity and futures worlds, when you calculate key indicators such as the Pivot series and Market Profile (Value Areas); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES you use the prior day’s data from start to finish. In order to do the same in Forex, you have to establish what point is the end of the day and start of the next day so that you properly use the data from the trailing 24 hours.

Many charting platforms can be misleading because they allow people to set the timeframe axis of their chart up for their own timezone, and then they end up with calculations that are based on “midnight to midnight” in their zone. Many people also force their charts onto EST, which does not provide a good “midnight to midnight” day in Forex. If you do it that way, you’re splitting the day in half.

The proper time for end of session/start of session is global rollover, which is 5 pm EST. Asia has not yet started, Europe is asleep, and the US banking day is over. This is the point of the lowest volume. It is also the point that banks in the intermarket system shut down to “settle” their trades from the prior 23 hours and 55 minutes or so. When you realize that technical evaluations and calculations need to be based on fixed factors such as a “day” of data, it becomes very important to recognize that this specific point is the start/end of a day. It also means that Forex can really be mapped into 5 clean daily bars as it opens at 5 pm EST on Sunday and closes at the same on Friday.

Tools that you use need to be able to make this adjustment to be valid. For example, we have an Average Daily Range tool that plots a range each day that is the six month average on each of our key Forex pairs. For those of us on the West Coast of the US, we need to be able to set that tool to start at 2 pm, which is 5 pm EST. By doing so, the tools starts drawing at that point and goes for 24 hours.

The chart below shows you today’s GBPUSD with the Average Daily Range lines. The top line anchors to the high of the session since 5 pm EST (2 pm PST) because we’re in the lower half of the day’s range. The lower red line is the Average Daily Range target, which is often a key support point in the market. As you can see, during the “day” when you start this tool running at the right time, the GBPUSD moved exactly to that lower line and bounced:

GBPUSD ADR

Had you used a different start of day, one that has less technical meaning to the market, the tool wouldn’t have worked.

You can follow us on Twitter for more details by clicking here, or take a free or full trial to our various trade calling and education services here. Our next 20-hour Forex course starts in June.

2