Posts Tagged ‘gbpusd’

Forex Calls Recap for 5/21/13

Tuesday, May 21st, 2013

Not an exciting session. We stopped out of the GBPUSD from the prior session in the money, and had new triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short very early (half size) in the Asian session and A and stopped. Triggered short again in the normal session at B, never made it to the first target, and closed out just over the entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Closed the second half of the prior day’s trade for 40 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/20/13

Monday, May 20th, 2013

A winner in the GBPUSD for the session, and we’re still holding the second half. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

There was a very early trigger that might have gotten you into a piece of your half size early entry and stopped. Meanwhile, triggered long at A, hit first target hours later at B without stopping, and we’re holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/17/13

Saturday, May 18th, 2013

Another winner to close out the week. See the GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target eventually at B, and stopped the second half at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/14/13

Tuesday, May 14th, 2013

Nothing triggered again overnight and then we had a small winner on the GBPUSD, which I closed out because it hadn’t gone far. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, closed at B for end of session about 15 pips in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/10/13

Friday, May 10th, 2013

A new EURUSD trade that closed out for about a 75-pip winner, and we still had the second half of the GBPUSD from the prior session, which we closed out the final piece of for 200 pips.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Once again, nothing major to see in the daily charts.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week (which was a nice close as it moved back up after):

GBPUSD:

Came into the session still short from 1.5530, lowered stop a few times, and stopped finally at A at 1.5330 for 200 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/9/13

Thursday, May 9th, 2013

A loser and a nice winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below as the US Dollar finally moved nicely.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t quite get to first target, and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, still holding about 100 pips in the money on the second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/8/13

Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

A nice clean winner on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Ranges were better, about 120 pips on the GBPUSD and EURUSD, so we should have decent levels spacing for tonight’s new calls.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/3/13

Friday, May 3rd, 2013

A crazy session with the NFP data, which is why we go half size ahead of that data. Ended up with three triggers, including one on that data that might not have filled. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. For the third weekend in a row, nothing to see in the daily charts for patterns or for Seeker/Comber signals.

GBPUSD:

The long triggered early at A, didn’t stop out, triggered again at B if you missed it, went over halfway to the first target but didn’t get there (note the 9 bar setup) and then stopped on the economic data spike. The short triggered at C on the data (still half size, and frankly, if you are awake, you should cancel ahead of data), but hit first target if you got a fill. Lowered stop in the morning and stopped over the entry at E. Then, with the data behind, back to full size and triggered long at F, hit first target at G, and stopped out at the same level as G on the way back down to close the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/30/13

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

ere’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

The long from yesterday stopped at A just around the original entry. New short triggered at B, gave you hours to setup and take, but then stopped:

GBPUSD:

Set the Pivot triggered perfectly at A, triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, raised stop and stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/26/13

Friday, April 26th, 2013

A loser and a flat trade to close out a flat week. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B and did nothing at all, bouncing off of UBreak at C, D, and E, but I finally closed at the entry price at F for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/23/13

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013

A winner for the session on the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you hours until B to enter, hit first target at C, and went lower, but by the time we were up, stop had to be moved over the entry and the second half stopped at D. Note the low was the LBreak at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/22/13

Monday, April 22nd, 2013

A disappointingly narrow 50 pips of range on the GBPUSD for the main session led to not much for us to start the week. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. 50 pip range for the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/12/13

Friday, April 12th, 2013

A winner, but one that didn’t even make it to the full first target. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

There are no patterns for breakout nor any Seeker/Comber signals looming on the daily charts. The US Dollar Index completed 9 bars down for a setup on Thursday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, didn’t get to first target, never stopped overnight, and I finally closed at B in the money a little for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/9/13

Tuesday, April 9th, 2013

We’re changing the formats of the charts for the reports officially. Starting today, all screenshots will be taken with eSignal 11, which has a slightly different look/feel to it. In addition, I’ve shifted my charts to EST for consistency in all asset classes.

We closed out the second half of a winner on the GBPUSD for the session, and then had an early trigger loser and a later trigger winner on the EURUSD. See those sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long very early (half size) at A and didn’t quite make it to the first target. Eventually stopped and was back under the trigger well ahead of the European session. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and stopped final piece under the entry at D:

GBPUSD:

The second half of the short from the prior session stopped in the money at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/8/13

Monday, April 8th, 2013

A loser and a retrigger that worked and is still going. See the GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short overnight at A and barely stopped out at B. Triggered again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over LPT:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/5/13

Friday, April 5th, 2013

More winners on the GBPUSD to close out the week, including a carryover from the prior session. We also had a stop out on the EURUSD. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Came into the session long from the prior day wiht a stop under 1.5200, which didn’t stop. The new long triggered at A, hit first target at B, and closed all of our GBPUSD at C for end of week, including a 150-pip winner on the final exit from the day before:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/4/13

Thursday, April 4th, 2013

Two winners for the session. See the GBPUSD below. Still holding half of the long position.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, kept going overnight. Note that the low was a 13 Comber buy signal at the S2 level at C. New call triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under R2. Note that right at the end of the chart, we got a Comber 13 sell signal, so that’s probably the high of the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/3/13

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013

Another interesting session with narrow range. The EURUSD bounced off our trigger and the GBPUSD triggered (just barely) and didn’t go anywhere. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Our short was under S1, but it didn’t get the 2-pip spread under that level to trigger:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t stop or go anywhere, finally closed just under the entry at B for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/19/13

Tuesday, March 19th, 2013

Technically no triggers for the session, or you might have taken one leg of the GBPUSD long. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Under our order staggering rules, if you used the bid, then no trigger at A, but if you used the ask, you might have been put into one out of three legs of the trade, which didn’t work. Overall, our short entry was the low and our long entry was the high as the market did nothing again:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/18/13

Monday, March 18th, 2013

Despite the craziness in the equity markets based on news out of Europe, there wasn’t as much action in Forex again. The EURUSD gapped out of the gate, one of the bigger gaps we have seen, and it eventually headed back toward Friday’s close, although didn’t get there. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD was stuck in a narrow 70 pip range. See both sections below.

The action was so limited that we didn’t even get a single Seeker or Comber signal on the EURUSD or the GBPUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

I was excited about the GBPUSD early as it set the UBreak exactly at A right after the open. However, it ended up triggering long at B and stopping for 25 pips. The range was only 70 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/15/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

We were only looking to go half size in primetime ahead of the CPI (and triple expiration), so there were two triggers, one early for quarter size and one for half size, both on the GBPUSD. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of the ten pairs that we cover with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into next week (no signals or chart patterns at ALL), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early (quarter size) at A and stopped. Note the Comber buy signal at the low after that, then retriggered at B, hit first target at C. Adjusted the stop in the morning under 1.5100, but should have closed at D for end of week when Europe shut down:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/14/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

One trade that came within 3 pips of the first target and a winner on the EURUSD. See that section below. Also see the GBPUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, came within 3 pips of the first target (LBreak) at B, which should have gotten you out of at least a piece of the trade under our order staggering rules. Lowered the stop in the morning and stopped at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under the black line at 1.3000:

GBPUSD:

We talked last night in the Lab about taking a scalp on the GBPUSD over the Pivot, and you have to love how it triggered and went EXACTLY to the UBreak/VAH. Quite remarkable:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/11/13

Monday, March 11th, 2013

As I mentioned, the first day or two after the time change can be fairly flat as the volume of the Forex pairs changes slightly since the hours aren’t synced the same. This led to 40 pips of range in the EURUSD for the session. Our GBPUSD trade triggered, see below. Hopefully, we shake this off and get back to ranges immediately. Note that my charts are now on Pacific Time.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We had a long over the Pivot, but it triggered too late in the session (just as I was taking screenshots):

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, retested the trigger perfectly at B, and then didn’t quite get to the first target. The trade took hours to play out, so in the morning, I lowered the stop just over VAL for little risk and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/5/13

Tuesday, March 5th, 2013

Our GBPUSD trigger from late yesterday hit the first target after the report was posted and was closed in today’s session about 60 pips in the money. EURUSD triggered and stopped. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

After hitting the first target yesterday, we adjusted the stop twice including once Tuesday morning under 1.5137, and that stopped in the money by almost 60 pips at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/4/13

Monday, March 4th, 2013

A loser and a trade still going on the GBPUSD to start the week. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B pretty late in the session, we’ve moved a stop under the Pivot and holding to see what happens:

Tradesight February 2013 Forex Results

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325

Any way you look at it, this was a great month. If you had four of these a year, you’d be set. The win ratio was high, and even the max losing streak of 2 in a row was something we hadn’t seen for a while. And, it didn’t just come down to one or two plays. We had several trades that finally carried over between days and went for bigger gains, which makes sense when you look at the US Dollar Index and the movement that it finally saw. This is what Forex trading should be like.

In general, ranges have expanded, and while I wouldn’t say that we are back to the GBPUSD seeing 150 pips and EURUSD seeing 130 pips that we expect on average over time, it’s still much better than the EURUSD getting 75 pips or so every night. There really haven’t been too many nights outside of Holidays where ranges were that horrible. Let us hope that this continues into March.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/1/13

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Nice session to close out the week and month. Our EURUSD short from the prior week stopped in the money. A new call on the EURUSD stopped, but the GBPUSD worked big if you got filled. See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then we will glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Our short from the prior session stopped over the Pivot at A, and the new call triggered long at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece over S3 in the morning at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/26/13

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013

Another sideways night that didn’t produce anything. Three triggers, see EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short again in the morning at B, eventually closed around the entry at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/25/13

Monday, February 25th, 2013

A winner and a loser for the session. See GBPUSD below. Gaps remain on several pairs from the open on Sunday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped second half over S1 entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/22/13

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

One trade if you were able to get any on a news spike. See GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Been a while since we’ve seen a spike like this on news that perhaps made it so that you didn’t get any or all of the pieces of your trade executed, depending on where your orders and limits were at. In terms of the raw trade, triggered long at A, hit first target at B (in the same 5 minute bar) and stop was moved under the entry. Also went again in the morning from C to D:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/21/13

Thursday, February 21st, 2013

Closed out a 125 pip winner on the EURUSD and had another winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See both sections below. Back to flat.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We were short from the 1.3355 area from the prior session. Adjusted the stop twice and stopped the final piece over the new S1 at A for about 125 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over the entry and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/12/13

Tuesday, February 12th, 2013

More winners as we locked in a big gain on the GBPUSD from the prior session, added another GBPUSD winner in this session, and added two winners on the EURUSD for today, which we are still carrying the second half of. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half (without adjusting as it was overnight) at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half:

GBPUSD:

Came into the session short from the prior day at 1.5775 area. New trade triggered short at A, it did go 21 pips against so you might have stopped one leg of the trade if you staggered exactly over the 20 pips. Also gave you until B to take it. Hit first target at C, lowered stop on both day’s trades and stopped at 1.5625 at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/11/13

Monday, February 11th, 2013

Nice winner…over 100 pips and still going…for the session. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over VAL and still holding second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/5/13

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

Almost a trifecta as we closed out a winner from the prior session on the EURUSD for over 100 pips, then had another winner on the EURUSD, but also a stop out on the GBPUSD, which triggered again later and worked perfect. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

After lowering the stop a couple of times, we stopped out the final piece of the short from the prior day at A for about 110 pips. The new call triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and I closed the final piece at the entry at D in the morning:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. If you woke up in time, the re-entry at B would have worked extremely well:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/13

Friday, February 1st, 2013

Closed a winner and ended the month of January with another nice winner (that at least pushed us green for the month). See GBPUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see NZDUSD and GBPJPY in particular), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

We stopped out of the second half of the long trade from the prior session in the money just above A, then the new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and after lowering the stop twice, I closed the final piece at C for over 100 pips for end of week and with a Comber 13 buy signal:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/13

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

We closed out the second half of a winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, then stopped out of a new GBPUSD trade, and then took it again and are carrying the second half in the money. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We stopped the second half of the prior day’s trade at A, in the money:

GBPUSD:

Set the R1 triggered perfectly at A, then triggered at B and stopped. Came down exactly to set our short trigger at C. Triggered long again in the morning at D, hit our first target at E, and holding second half with a stop under R1 (entry):

Forex Calls Recap for 1/30/13

Wednesday, January 30th, 2013

A loser on the GBPUSD and a winner on the EURUSD, which is still going. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and still holding with a stop under R2:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/29/13

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

Clean winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop up and stopped at C in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/24/13

Thursday, January 24th, 2013

A loser on the EURUSD, and a winner on the GBPUSD (still going). See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped, would have worked later:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/22/13

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

A disappointing session, as one trade that ultimately worked perfectly to its first target got stopped first on some news. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A on the news. Also, in the morning, at least a leg or two of the trade triggered at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, ended up stopping on the plunge down on news (which triggered the EURUSD short). Note that if you were awake, the retrigger at B worked perfectly to our target at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/15/13

Tuesday, January 15th, 2013

A stop out on the GBPUSD and a EURUSD trade that came right to the stop area depending on how you staggered your exit. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A. The stop was 20 pips plus spread, and the high at B was 22 pips (Note: Since that was LPT at 22 pips back, you can also just go above that). Either way, you may have stopped part of the trade if you used our order staggering properly, then hit first target at C, and holding whatever is left with a stop over S2:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long over the Pivot at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/11/13

Saturday, January 12th, 2013

A stop out on the new GBPUSD trade, but we closed out a 270 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session. This was our first week back to full size, and it looks like a good call so far.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then take a look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We had adjusted the stop up on the existing call Thursday evening, then raised it under 1.3325 Friday morning, and I finally closed it at 1.3360 for end of week at A. You could also have held that one over, but I’m good with the close out for almost a 270 pip winner to the final exit:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/9/13

Wednesday, January 9th, 2013

Two losers for the session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped completely for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, didn’t hit the first target, but we moved the stop directly over LBreak in the morning and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/8/13

Tuesday, January 8th, 2013

A winner on the GBPUSD for the session, still holding a piece over. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

One leg of the trade triggered at A and stopped at B, the rest triggered at C and took a partial at the tri-star level at D, still holding the rest with a stop over LPT:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/7/13

Monday, January 7th, 2013

A loser to start the week on the GBPUSD, although if you follow our order staggering rules, you should have gotten a piece off in the money. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and never really came back until the middle of the European session to give you the chance to enter unless you set Limit orders. This is one of those cases where we came within 5 pips of the first target and you should have had your orders staggered and gotten at least a leg of your trade off, but we will count it as a loser for simplicity. Stopped at B:

Tradesight Forex End of 2013 Summary and Results

Friday, January 4th, 2013

Let’s start with the results for the year, and then we will layer how the market behaved on top of it. First, let’s clarify that the trading system that we teach in our courses is something that you can apply and use to develop many more trades than just the ones that we call each day. Using the system, we try to target 50-60% winning trades, and we keep our losses very tight (25 pips max) with no exceptions. The system works better when the pairs are trading good average daily ranges, and we certainly saw a drop off in ranges in 2012, especially in the second half of the year. In the prior year, 2011, we netted almost 3100 pips for the year with about a 51% win rate. 2012 was not that year, but it was still respectable, and certainly, I’d take the average of the two years each year and be happy.

In 2012, we had 337 triggers off of our main trade calls (again, if you have taken the courses, you can find much more to do, including trading some of the pairs beyond the EURUSD and GBPUSD, using Value Areas, etc.). 160 were winners. That’s at 47.5% win ratio, which is slightly below our targeted range of 50-60%, but if there was going to be a year where that happened, it would be 2012 with the bad ranges. I haven’t seen anything like that since 2007.

Separately, these results don’t account for the fact that we told our subscribers to go half size late in the summer as range dropped. This is something that we typically do around August if the summer doldrums present themselves, but we move back to full size shortly after when ranges resume. This year, since ranges didn’t resume, we are still half size at the end of the year. The net pip gains for the calls was exactly 700 pips, and again, that doesn’t account for the fact that the last four months of the year were half size. Three of those months gave us negative results (although December was a return to gains with 185 pips locked in).

If you take the 12 months in order, here were the pip gains or losses: +330, +70, +100, +125, +10, +275, +150, +100, -130, -100, -45, and +185.

Every year has one losing month with our system, often during the summer doldrums. The Tradesight Forex service launched in 2005. A couple of the years since (including 2007, which was really slow), we saw two losing months, although never back to back. We had 3 months in a row here with net losses in 2012. That’s how bad the market got.

Keep in mind, however, that even with those months, we had net gains for the year, and our system prevented major harm from being done as we keep our losses very tight. If you adjust the last four months to half size, the net gain was really +785 (might have been even bigger exception December was a decent month).

One other way to look at it, and I’m happy to see this because it fits with the “system” that we want, is that most of those 700 pips were locked in during the first six months of the year, and then the last six months, which were as narrow as I’ve seen, were basically a wash. It’s hard to have a problem with a trading system that essentially gives you no gain or loss when the worst environment for the system presents itself.

You can browse the net results of each month by clicking here and scrolling down.

So let’s put the year into perspective with some charts, but we will keep it to a few as we also have a separate end of year report for all markets.

Let’s start by taking a look at the most commonly traded pair out there, the EURUSD. I’ve drawn a flat black line on each of these charts from the start of the year so you can see if we net gained or lost:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What you’ll notice in that chart is that even though it traded 1400 pips from high to low, which sounds like a lot, most of the moves were in the boxes that I’ve drawn, where we made good money. Too much of the year was spent in flat action, and we only ended up 200 pips higher than we started the year. I should also point out the the prior year saw 2000 pips of range in the EURUSD, but we saw a full move up the 2000 pips and then back, which is a lot more movement.

Here’s the GBPUSD, which has a nice cup and handle formed for a potential breakout in 2013:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here we saw only 1000 pips of range, and it still had the same few months with the best action. Note that ALL THREE Seeker 13 signals during the year (1 buy, 2 sells) were very timely. But here, the net gain for the year was 650 pips.

Keep in mind that both the EURUSD and GBPUSD rose during the year, which is negative for the US Dollar. However, the USDJPY told the opposite tale, breaking out of a nice cup formation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So against the JPY, the US Dollar got much stronger. Unfortunately, even with that action, the daily ranges in the USDJPY have been crippling from a trading perspective since the nuclear incident in 2011.

So the net of all of that is that the US Dollar itself barely changed for the whole year of 2012. Here’s the index:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notice that we did move up mid-year, then came back a bit and went flat as the Fiscal Cliff situation approached. The election had little to no impact.

I’ve drawn three boxes, however, that show just how stuck and boring the US Dollar was for big sections of the year.

In the end, it wasn’t the type of year that we’ve seen in the past, but you can’t expect every year to be exciting. No, it doesn’t mean that the Forex market is dying. Too many people blame regulation for killing the Forex market, but my opinion is that that plays a tiny sliver of a role. We saw ranges dip in 2007 for a while, but they were ridiculously big in 2008 with the banking collapse and great in the years after (until 2012). With Japan’s currency seemingly being controlled post-nuclear incident, Europe in trouble, the world in a SPENDING recession (which aren’t helped by austerity moves), and the US creating a useless (I’ll go ahead and say it…complete stupid and unnecessary) amount of uncertainty with the Fiscal Cliff, there just wasn’t a lot of currency moving. It will move again, but our system is designed to protect you in the slow periods (obviously, if they last for years, it would be bad), which it did. Here’s to 2013.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/2/13

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

A winner in the GBPUSD to start 2013. Always nice to start the year with a winner. See that section below for the recap.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under the entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/31/12

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

A loser and a bigger winner, both on the GBPUSD, to close out the year. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

No calls or Levels tonight for the New Year’s Holiday. New calls and Chat tomorrow after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece for 50 pips at D at end of the chart. Didn’t want to hold through the Holiday:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/3/12

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

A nice start to the month as we got a clean trigger and nice move on the GBPUSD. See that section below, and we’re still long as we end the session. It even traded average range finlly.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding the second half with a stop under R2. Note that the high was the tri-star level and the Average Daily Range boundary:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/29/12

Thursday, November 29th, 2012

Almost a dead flat trade for the session as we again had contained ranges, although the EURUSD was about 100 pips so there will be decent Levels spacing for tonight’s last day of the month. See GBPUSD below for last night’s review.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, never stopped because that would have been under the Pivot at B, didn’t quite hit the first target at C, and adjusted the stop in the morning just under the entry and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/13/12

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012

Still no ranges, still half size, and two stops (and the EURUSD exactly set the short entry again but didn’t retrigger). See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after the Levels are posted.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Note how it hit S2 again in the morning:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/23/12

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

A loser and a winner (still going) on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Better ranges too, but we have a Fed announcement tomorrow.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C at S2, still holding the second half with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/2/12

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012

Our EURUSD trade from the prior session stopped 45 pips in the money, but we had a loser in the GBPUSD in this session. See both sections below. Ranges remain light.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Raised stop twice and stopped final piece of prior day’s trade at A:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long again at B, raised stop when it hadn’t gone anywhere by late in the session, and stopped at C for 10 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/18/12

Tuesday, September 18th, 2012

I keep getting emails from subscribers asking when we are going to go back to full size. The answer is the same every year. August is typically a slow month, and then the big traders tend to get back to work at some point after Labor Day. Just because we get a one-day spike due to a Fed announcement doesn’t mean that ranges are back to normal. I want to see 2-3 days of good ranges that aren’t just because of a news spike. Until then…have a look at the GBPUSD this session. Basically, 40 pips of range. Who wants to be trading heavy in that? See that section below for today’s trigger.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A, but gave you chances all session at B, C, D and more to enter, and finally stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/12/12

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

Basically a wash of a night with a loser on the EURUSD and a winner on the GBPUSD. See both sections below. Still half size with the Fed announcement tomorrow and CPI on Friday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A on a spike down on news and stopped for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C at R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/10/12

Monday, September 10th, 2012

A night of basically 30 pips of range on the EURUSD during the European session didn’t produce much for results. One trade triggered and stopped (see GBPUSD below).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/31/12

Friday, August 31st, 2012

A nice winner to close out the week and month. See GBPUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action for Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing interesting), and then look at the US Dollar Index (something interesting there).

FX Levels will be posted for Sunday but no calls will be made due to the US Holiday. We resume Monday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s play in the money. Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/30/12

Thursday, August 30th, 2012

A winner and a loser (the winner is still going) for the session.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A or the next move, hit first target at B, holding with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/13/12

Monday, August 13th, 2012

Boring session again with no movement during European or US hours. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A and gave you all the way to B to take, then stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, never stopped or hit first target, finally closed at B for end of session down 15 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/9/12

Thursday, August 9th, 2012

A winner and a loser for the session with the short GBPUSD still in play as I right this. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hasn’t hit first target yet but we lowered stop over the tri-star level at 1.5625 (B) in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/8/12

Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

A much slower week than last week with just two stop outs and one night without a trigger. This time, the GBPUSD short stopped, see that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, did not quite make it to the first target, and stopped for 25 pips at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/31/12

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

An interesting session. We had a short idea in the GBPUSD that worked and a long idea in the EURUSD that worked. See both below, and we are still long the EURUSD.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but we remain half size ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you hour to take at that price, never went 20 pips plus spread against, hit first target at B, and holding the second half with a stop under the red line at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B (and bottomed out exactly on a Seeker 13 buy signal), and closed the final piece over the entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/27/12

Friday, July 27th, 2012

Closed out a 170 pip winner on the GBPUSD from the prior session, but had a trigger and stop out on the EURUSD overnight. See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see AUDUSD and NZDUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

Calls resume Sunday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Closed second half of the trade from the prior day at A for 170 pips or so:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/26/12

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

A nice winner in the GBPUSD, and we’re still carrying the second half of the trade. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, kept going, and holding with a stop under line at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/24/12

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

One stop out on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Fairly slow session with light range.

New calls and Chat tonight. Slow week so far.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Usually, when the market addresses both our short and long entries, it breaks one or the other and we end up with a winner. You know you have the right triggers when the market comes up and tests them. In this case, the GBPUSD tested our long entry at A, then went down to test our short entry (under 1.5485) at B exactly. Unfortunately, in this case, we then triggered long at C and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/17/12

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

Nice session. Stopped out of the second half of the GBPUSD long from the prior session in the money and had a winner in the EURUSD. See both sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market direction lines:

EURUSD:

We were half size overnight ahead of CPI, but nothing triggered, and then in the morning after the CPI data (so full size), EURUSD triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped second half over entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Stopped second half of long trade from the prior session under LBreak at A for 40 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/16/12

Monday, July 16th, 2012

One loser and one winner in the GBPUSD to start the week, and we’re still carrying the second half of the long idea. See that section below.

New calls and Chat this afternoon, although they might be closer to 8 pm EST.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (just barely, and note the Seeker 13 buy signal right there) and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop under 1.5660 (the black line):

Forex Calls Recap for 7/13/12

Saturday, July 14th, 2012

Nice GBPUSD trigger, perfect setup and test of the level and then triggered and worked for 100 pips to the final exit. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (note the GBPUSD comments there below), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the index with our market directional lines:

I will be on the road through next week. Calls and reports will still all go up, but could be a little later on any given day. I may not do Opening Comments each day from the road, depending on my schedule and location.

Levels will be posted on time each day by Mark. Have a great week.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A perfectly, hit first target at B (note the Seeker 13 sell signal at that point), closed final piece at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 07/12/12

Thursday, July 12th, 2012

Clean trigger and winner in the GBPUSD, see that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight to close out the week. I will be on the road all of next week. Levels will go up as usual, reports might be a little late from time to time, and the calls could be late certain days, but I will notify in advance through the Messenger. There might be a couple of nights without opening comments as well.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over S2 and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/11/12

Wednesday, July 11th, 2012

A waste of time session with just a 5-pip plus spreads loser in the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. Back to normal size, but this has not been exciting so far.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, did not stop or hit first target overnight, raised stop to 5 pips under UBreak and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/5/12

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

We were half size for the Holiday week, but would have been half size anyway with the ECB and BoE rate announcements, and the BoE one stopped us out of the trade (which is why we go half size for those). See GBPUSD below.

One more day and then back to a better environment.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, still half size, also have NFP/Unemployment in the morning.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, just barely stopped at B on the rate announcement news, which was unfortunate because then it worked after that:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/20/12

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

The session was a little unique in that the Forex pairs usually either do nothing after a Fed announcement or pick one direction and stick with it. In this case, the initial move was strong in favor of the Dollar, then we reversed even stronger, and then came back to par. As usual, we’re half size on triggers ahead of the Fed and full size after (give it about 10 minutes to settle). We had three triggers, two half size losers and a full size winner, all in the EURUSD. We also stopped the second half of the prior day’s GBPUSD long in the money.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, back to normal size. All flat at the moment.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight for half size and eventually stopped at B ahead of the Fed announcement. Triggered short on the announcement at C and stopped. With that behind us, the full size trigger was the long at D, hit first target of 50 pips at E and stopped the second half under the entry:

GBPUSD:

Stopped the second half of the prior day’s long under LBreak at A in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/19/12

Tuesday, June 19th, 2012

A loser and a winner on the GBPUSD, see that section below, and we are still long the second half of the trade.

New calls and Chat tonight, but we will be half size ahead of the Fed announcement.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you all the way until B to enter, then stopped. Triggered long at C in the morning, hit first target at D, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/18/12

Monday, June 18th, 2012

Winner to start the week in the GBPUSD after a gap in the markets from the vote in Greece. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over entry level and just barely stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/8/12

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Another winner to close out the week. Five for six for the week in total. Nice stuff, and the ranges have been back up, Hopefully, this holds.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, then discuss the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday from Friday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (half size), hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/1/12

Friday, June 1st, 2012

Some winners and a loser in the GBPUSD to close out the week and month of May. Glad it is over.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

From the perspective of the Seeker and Comber, there is a lot going on for once, all of which suggests a likely reversal to the downside of the USD and to the upside on the EUR. That might not make sense to many given the news, but the technicals are saying so. We shall see.

US Dollar Index intraday from Thursday/Friday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday afternoon.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A (half size night ahead of NFP), but gave you hours to enter all the way to B without stopping. Hit first target at C, lowered stop and stopped at D. Triggered the long at E and stopped. Triggered short again at F, hit first target at G, and closed out the final at the end of the chart for the end of the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/23/12

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

Another winner, plus the EURUSD short from the prior session continues to work and is now 100 pips in the money. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Lowered stop twice during the session from the short from the prior day. Stop now over the line at A:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A overnight, hit first target at B exactly to the pip, and closed in the morning at C, as we would have lowered stop over the entry overnight if we had been there once it hit the first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/17/12

Thursday, May 17th, 2012

A stop out in a new EURUSD call, but our GBPUSD short from the last two days finally stopped out 250 pips in the money. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, options expiration tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Lowered stop two more times on the GBPUSD and finally stopped over S2 at A for a 250 pip gain from the call earlier in the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/16/12

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

Two new triggers that didn’t work out, and our GBPUSD short continues and currently about 150 pips in the money. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you another chance to enter, and stopped at B. Triggered short at C on news out of Greece on a spike, stopped at D:

GBPUSD:

Still short from prior session at 1.6050 with a stop over the S1 here:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/15/12

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

Another winner, this one short the GBPUSD and still holding the second half of the trade. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stop currently over black line on the second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/14/12

Monday, May 14th, 2012

Nothing at all through the Asian and European sessions, and then we finally moved in the North American session and triggered a winner in the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still long second half with a stop under Pivot (entry):

Forex Calls Recap for 4/30/12

Monday, April 30th, 2012

That was a very slow session for Forex. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD barely traded 40 pips of range during the European session. We eventually had a trigger, but closed it out around the entry. See GBPUSD below. Tonight’s calls are the last official calls of April.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New Calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Finally triggered short at A, closed at B just over entry for end of session after it went nowhere:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/26/12

Thursday, April 26th, 2012

Wow, that was flat trading. Market is waiting at least for the first look at GDP for Q1, which comes out Friday morning. See GBPUSD for our trigger for the day.

New calls and Chat this evening, but we will be half size ahead of the GDP.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B. No action at all. Hit the trigger again in the morning exactly but didn’t get through:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/23/12

Monday, April 23rd, 2012

Slow session to start the week with one tight stop out in the GBPUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

A 2-day Fed meeting begins Tuesday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, never went enough overnight to matter, and I tightened the stop to 10 pips in the morning and it stopped at B:

 

Forex Calls Recap for 4/20/12

Friday, April 20th, 2012

Closed out two winners to end what was a surprisingly decent week despite continued bad ranges. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (not getting near any 13 signals, but note the GBPUSD daily chart below), then look at the US Dollar Index, which isn’t indicating anything new.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:

GBPUSD:

Finally stopped second half of trade from Wednesday under LBreak at A, which was only a 60 pip gain since ranges have been bad:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/19/12

Thursday, April 19th, 2012

Two new trades worked exactly to their first targets. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below, plus we are still long GBPUSD from the prior session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but no news on Friday and we have options expiration, which might slow things down.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C just over entry:

GBPUSD:

We came into the session long the second half of the trade from the prior day with a stop under LBreak. New trade triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the second half at C overnight, but never broke LBreak. We then adjusted the stop on the piece from the prior day under UBreak and continue to hold, which would be stopped under the line at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/18/12

Wednesday, April 18th, 2012

Loser and a winner (still going) on GBPUSD, see that section below.

Ranges were improved, let’s hope it continues.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop under R1, which will be adjusted when we get the new Levels:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/10/12

Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

Another boring session with 70 pips of range on the EURUSD. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below for trade recaps.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped at B. Triggered short in the morning at C, should have stopped at least some pieces of your trade under our order staggered methods at D. Triggered short again at E, closed at F as it hadn’t hit first target or stop by end of session (again):

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size) and stopped. Additional call in the morning never triggered but looked good:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/9/12

Monday, April 9th, 2012

Half size night for me as I said in the opening comments as Europe was entirely on vacation for Easter, even though the US was not. Basically got what we should have expected out of such a session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls tonight and hopefully back to work with the world open.

EURUSD:

All trades were half size. Triggered short at A and stopped (note the 13 for a bottom). Triggered short at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, closed at B at entry as we ran out of time:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/4/12

Wednesday, April 4th, 2012

Another dead session but a winner for us in GBPUSD, see that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap the short week.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A early (half size) but gave you hours to enter (and get to full size) through B, hit first target at C, stopped slightly in the money on the second half after adjusting stop in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/29/12

Friday, March 30th, 2012

Not much for results. Basically a loser, a winner, and a flat trade. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, dead flat after, never hit first target or stop, closed at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered long in the morning at B, closed at C in the money as it hadn’t hit first target or stop:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/22/12

Thursday, March 22nd, 2012

Loser and a draw as the market headed one way, went a little bit the other, and ended up back where it started yet again.

See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up what has been one of the slowest weeks in a while.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, went 40 pips but didn’t quite reach first target, lowered stop in the morning over entry, might have stopped you at B or else just sitting there at entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/15/12

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Took a while to play out, but we have a nice winner going from the session in the GBPUSD finally after a slow week. See that section below for the recap.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning, so half size.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stop under VAH and holding:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/14/12

Wednesday, March 14th, 2012

Another slow session. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A overnight and stopped. Put back in in morning and triggered short at B and stopped again:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/8/12

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

One trigger, a winner, in the GBPUSD, and we still have the second half of the long trade. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance and NFP in the morning means half size for me.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop twice, currently under R2, and holding into the next session the second half of the trade:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/7/12

Wednesday, March 7th, 2012

Not a great session. We closed out the second half of the GBPUSD short from the prior day well in the money (see below), but then got stopped a few times on new EURUSD calls (see below).

New calls and Chat tonight as we head toward a bunch of news Thursday night/Friday morning globally.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, eventually stopped at B. Put trades back in the morning, triggered short at C and stopped. Triggered long at D and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Closed second half of prior day’s short in the money on the sweep over VAH at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/6/12

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

Nice winner in the GBPUSD (see below) and the trade is still going, holding into the next session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop twice and currently have a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/23/12

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

Another very dull session, and so far, probably the dullest week of the year, even though it is a short one. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

See GBPUSD section below for our trade recaps. New calls and Chat tonight, no major news tomorrow.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. If you put it back in late in the session, a piece of the trade (not the whole trade under our order staggering rules) triggered long at B and then the rest at C, and then closed at the end of this chart at D since the session was over and we didn’t get to first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/15/12

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

A very interesting lesson for some in the session. We had trades trigger in GBPUSD and EURUSD. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight as we head into options expiration and a 3-day weekend.

EURUSD:

Triggered short very early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop over 1.3100:

GBPUSD:

This trade shows you a little about how our Advanced Forex course can help you make adjustments on the fly. Triggered long at A. First target was VAH, which was right at the top of the screen at 1.5741 (you can’t quite see the line). We came within 5 pips, so if you stagger your orders correctly as we teach in the main course, you could have gotten a piece off. However, we got a Seeker 13 sell signal (the red 13 on the chart) right up there too, which I pointed out in the Messenger, which should make you take a piece off if your price hadn’t hit. Second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/9/12

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Another slow session, two in a row. See GBPUSD below. We have Trade Balance in the morning, which is one of our Big Three each month, so half size ahead of it, and then we’ll see again if there are additional calls to make in the morning after the data for end of week.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

et the trigger nicely and then triggered at A, but stopped at B on news:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/8/12

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

Wow, 50 pips of range on the EURUSD. Ouch, what a session. GBPUSD stopped well in the money from yesterday, but a new call triggered short and stopped. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Second half of yesterday’s long idea stopped in the money for around 45 pips at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/7/12

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

Slow overnight and then some movement finally for the US session. Stopped out of the second half of the EURUSD long from the prior day in the money, then two stops, then a new winner that is still in play.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Second half of the trade from the prior day stopped in the money under the LBreak (lower red line). New trade triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long overnight at A and stopped. Put it back in in the morning and triggered at B (or the second attempt, either one) and hit first target at C, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Tradesight January 2012 Forex Results

Sunday, February 5th, 2012

Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for December 2011

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 41.9%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (last week of the year)
Net pips: +20

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2012

Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (around January 4-8 and again late in month)
Net pips: +330

The market shook off the Holidays quickly and got active out of the gate. Despite 2 Holidays during the month, we had 32 triggers, which was more than December. The win rate sits exactly at 50%, and the winners were spread over the month, so you didn’t have to catch one or two key trades to do well. But it was also a month of swings as we went through several periods where we saw days in a row with nice trades and then days in a row with tight stop outs. But I’ll take a month like this any time. The net pip count was 330, which is a good start to the year. You can go back through the Blog or reports to view each trade by clicking here.

The interesting bit is that average ranges dropped quite a bit. The trailing 6 month average daily range on the EURUSD coming into the month had been 167, but it closed at 160. GBPUSD dropped as well from 146 to 139. Cross pairs dropped also. That’s a very interesting stat as December had been quite slow. For ranges to dip that much and have us still have a great month means that trading was a little unique, but it still points to the power of our strict system about stops and moving on. It’s a good start to the year either way.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/23/12

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Boring session to start the week. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but we are heading into a 2-day Fed meeting.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. If you follow the order staggering rules, at least part of the trade triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at C and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/20/12

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Closed out the GBPUSD from two days ago finally for 75 pips or so. EURUSD trade stopped out overnight, and a short in the EURUSD didn’t quite make it to the first target and I finally gave up on it as the week was winding down.

See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber for each pair (that 13 buy signal on the GBPUSD from last weekend worked perfectly); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

A full week ahead, including a Fed meeting. Calls resume Sunday evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B. Triggered short at C, didn’t quite hit the first target at D, and closed at the end of the chart for end of week and 15 pips loss:

GBPUSD:

Last half of the trade from Wednesday stopped out at A for 75 pips:

Nice week overall.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/19/12

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

GBPUSD barely drifted higher but still hasn’t stopped us out of our long from yesterday. I’ve adjusted the stop, see below. Meanwhile, new trade in EURUSD worked, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Set the trigger perfectly at A as discussed in the Lab. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, raised stop under UBreak entry in the morning and we’ll say it stopped at D, although if you staggered your exit per the rules, you should still have some because it only went 3 pips under:

GBPUSD:

Barely 60 pips of range for the night, but we’re still long from the other day with a stop now under UBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/18/12

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

A loser and a winner that is still in play. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but half size for me with CPI in the morning. Also, we have options expiration on Friday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long overnight at A and stopped. Put them back in in the morning, triggered long at B, hit first target at C, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/17/12

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

A winner to start the short week. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Told everyone to put full size in early as we usually do on the first day back from a long weekend. Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop under entry in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/12/12

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

Loser and a winner still going. At least we got some action finally. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. Half size for me ahead of Trade Balance and also a long weekend.

EURUSD:

An unusual situation. Could have triggered part of the trade early at A (and half size for early entry); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES put the rest of the orders in heading into the European session, the initial piece would have stopped at B if you got it, then the rest triggered at C and hit first target at D, still going with a stop under 1.2800:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A or B and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/10/12

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Boring day again. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Nothing else worth calling as nothing ever happened:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/9/12

Monday, January 9th, 2012

Slow start to the week with narrow ranges. See GBPUSD below for trade call reviews.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size if you were ready) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/3/12

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

We ended the year on a positive note and started the year on a positive note. As I said with the calls last night, it’s best to get full size in early coming back from a 3-day weekend. Can’t even tell you how many times that has worked well. See EURUSD below for the winner which we are still holding, but also see the comments on GBPUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and currently have stop under R3 and holding over:

GBPUSD:

Note how precisely on the move up the GBPUSD stopped at the green tri-star level at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/30/11

Friday, December 30th, 2011

Winner to close out the year in the GBPUSD, see that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts (see GBPJPY); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index and that’s about it.

Look for new entries into the Blog and Messenger in the next week to sum up December and 2011 (separately) and comment on our Forex trading in general for the year.

Happy a Safe and Happy New Year’s. Thanks for being the best subscribers in the world, and we look forward to a lot of new things in 2012.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A. Under our order staggering rules taught in our courses, you probably stopped out of one leg of the three at B, hit first target at C, closed final piece at D to end the year on a positive note:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/28/11

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

Dead session for the European session, but a big move in the US session that started just before I got back to my desk to take advantage. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again short at C, which would have been valid again and worked for 200 pips, but it happened about 15 minutes before I was back at my desk in the morning, unfortunately:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/27/11

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

Dead session for the European session, but a big move in the US session that started just before I got back to my desk to take advantage. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again short at C, which would have been valid again and worked for 200 pips, but it happened about 15 minutes before I was back at my desk in the morning, unfortunately:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/20/11

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Nice winner for 120 pips to the final exit in GBPUSD, see below. It’s rate that the R3 and S3 levels come into play, but they did here.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight as we rush toward Christmas.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long clean at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/19/11

Monday, December 19th, 2011

One early trigger and winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. Also, see EURUSD discussion:

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A, gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C, stopped above entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/16/11

Friday, December 16th, 2011

Stopped out of a GBPUSD trade for half size ahead of CPI and triple expiration, then cancelled everything early as the market rarely moves on triple expiration.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts (with a new twist, read on) below, then glance at the US Dollar Index at the bottom.

Due to the popularity of the Seeker/Comber tools, I’ve decided to add a component to the Sunday Forex reports. Typically, I show the daily charts just with the Seeker tool and we point out key macro-setups on the daily patterns. Now, I’m going to give two daily charts for each pair, one with the Seeker and one with the Comber, so we can discuss from that perspective.

On to the last two weeks of the year, which aren’t usually super-exciting.

New calls and chat Sunday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/14/11

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

Winner and a loser for the session, basically a wash on a dull night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/13/11

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

A dead night ahead of the Fed, half size trades for me ahead of that news, and nothing happened after the Fed. We did close out the EURUSD short from the prior day for a 150 pip gain. See both sections below.

US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the final piece of the EURUSD from the prior day’s short over UBreak at A for 150 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size anyway ahead of Fed) and gave you a chance to take it later at B, but stopped either way. Triggered short at C and stopped. I noted in the Messenger not to put them back in with Fed ahead:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/9/11

Sunday, December 11th, 2011

Winner and a loser to wrap up the week, and we ended up net nothing for the session again on the USD stuff.

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual, on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts for the new week (nothing to see) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Next week is triple expiration, so Friday will probably be slow even for Forex.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped at D. Both trades were valid again in the morning but neither triggered:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/8/11

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Couple of winners on the session in GBPUSD, and we’re still short and in the money. See below. New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our Big Three each month, so half size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, might have stopped one leg but nothing more at B as it only went exactly 3 pips under the stop level. Hit first target at C and closed final piece under entry. Triggered short at D, hit first target a E, and still have the position short with a stop over the line at F:

Tradesight November 2011 Forex Results

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for October 2011

Number of trades: 43
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 53.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (around October 25)
Net pips: +600

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for November 2011

Number of trades: 33
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 48.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (around November 28)
Net pips: +75

It was a much tamer month. We had two Holidays plus the Friday after Thanksgiving, so less trading days and 10 less calls that triggered that October. There was a lot of back and forth and we essentially won half of the trades, which is fine and sometimes all you get. Having said that, we still netted out around 75 pips in the pure data including partials, stops, and final exits. Nothing like the last two months, but nothing to complain about. One more month and then we will put the entire year into perspective.

The ranges stayed very average, with almost none of the pairs changing their six-month average daily ranges by more than a couple of pips. AUDUSD was the only pair that posted a gain here of 7 pips, which is nice. Because of the wider ranges in the AUDUSD, I have been looking at it for trade setups as well, but haven’t seen a ton that I like. We also had some key Value Area plays during the month.

Have a great last month of the year and Happy Holidays to all!

On to December…

Forex Calls Recap for 12/2/11

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Typical overnight ahead of the NFP data with no real action. That’s why we use half size. Nice winner after that for normal size. See GBPUSD below for all of it.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday from Thursday night/Friday with our market directional lines. Note that the key point was the change in the trend at A when two lines went green:

New calls and Chat Sunday as we wind down the year.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped ahead of the NFP data. Both of those were to be half size ahead of the data. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, closed final at E after hitting average daily range line with no time left for 70 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/1/11

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Not a very exciting night. One winner and one loser, see below on GBPUSD.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

Unemployment and NFP in the morning, so half size, new calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, moved stop and stopped second half at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/30/11

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

One of those rare events where it’s unlikely you could get a fill in Forex as the market leapt on news that the global central banks were moving to help Europe. This caused a huge spike in the EURUSD. We did have the GBPUSD hit first target, but the EURUSD trade probably didn’t get you a fill. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, but on major global news and a spike that was probably not something you could get executed in. If you did, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning, stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/29/11

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

Not as good as the prior night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening as usual.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES might have stopped you out at B, although it went only 2 pips under the stop level and if you followed our order staggering rules, you should have still had a piece. Hit first target at C if you had any left, but still got back to the stop out point at D overnight:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short very early at A (half size) and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/28/11

Monday, November 28th, 2011

One early stop out and then a couple of winners in the European session to bring us back from the Holiday. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below, including the perfect Value Area move on the GBPUSD. Classic.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B in the European session, hit first target at C, raised stop in the morning and stopped at D:

GBPUSD:

Look at this perfect Value Area play, bouncing above the VAH/R1 in the Asian session, then triggering short into the Value Area at A, hit the Value Area Low EXACTLY at B, and stopping the second half at C:

That’s definition of a Value Area move.

Forex Calls Recap for 11/22/11

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

Amazingly flat session on most of the pairs, although the GBPUSD was rude enough to trigger both of our trades and then wind up back where it started. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but Japan on Holiday (not that the JPY moves anymore) and we’re heading into the busiest travel day of the year.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/21/11

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Nice winner to start the week in the GBPUSD, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short clean at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C for about 80 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/16/11

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

Early movement meant that I had to make additional calls later in the evening, as the EURUSD short triggered very early. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below for main calls. It was a half size night anyway with the CPI data in the morning. Back to normal tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

The original call triggered too early at A, although it gave you until B to enter and worked to first target at C. I didn’t take that trade as it was too early and ahead of CPI. Meanwhile, the additional call triggered long at D, hit first target at E, and I still have part of the trade with a stop under the black line:

GBPUSD:

Additional call due to early movement triggered short at A and stopped (note that we had a 13 Seeker buy signal right when it triggered short…never a good combo):

Forex Calls Recap for 11/14/11

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Loser in the GBPUSD by a couple of pips, but it worked later. Looks like e-Signal had an issue with about an hour of data from MB as well, so there are gaps in the charts.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped by just a couple of pips at B before working great. If you were awake, could have taken again, but that doesn’t fall into our official timeline for trading:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/8/11

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

A winner and a loser in another not-so-stellar session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under entry at C (just barely):

Forex Calls Recap for 11/2/11

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Half size night ahead of the Fed, but a winner in the GBPUSD. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Back to normal size.

Here was the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

This was a half size night, but there was a short trigger on the EURUSD before the Asian session even started, which would have been quarter size under our rules if you even took it that early. Triggered short at A, came within five pips of first target, and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A but gave you until the European session open at B to get in without ever stopping. Hit first target at C, closed final piece at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/1/11

Tuesday, November 1st, 2011

Another nice winner to officially close out the month of October. See GBPUSD below, which behaved perfectly technically. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but half size for me ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you all the way to B to take it, hit first target at C, lowered stop in the morning and stopped final piece at D for 100 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/31/11

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Another nice winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat this evening. Other than the move we caught, it was a fairly slow session with the snow issues back East.

Here is the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and locked in about 80 pips to the final exit at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/28/11

Friday, October 28th, 2011

Closed out the EURUSD from the prior session for 250 pips, and then we had a loser and a winner in the GBPUSD. See both sections below. European sessions have been flat this week, hope that isn’t something regular now.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then glance at the US Dollar Index below.

Time change this weekend in Europe and then next weekend in the US.

EURUSD:

Stopped second half of prior day’s long under LBreak at A for 250 pip winner:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at B, hit first target at C, closed final at end of chart at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/27/11

Friday, October 28th, 2011

There’s a nice session. Even though the GBPUSD stopped for a small loss, the EURUSD worked great and is still going, almost 300 pips in the money as I write this. See both sections below.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening to wrap up the week.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, which looks like a blip now, still holding with a stop under the black line, way in the money:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and was looking good to start but stopped for 20+ pips just barely at B. Note that it then turned up and ran straight to R1 at C…to the pip:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/26/11

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Another very dull overnight session, but a great move in the US session got us a clean winner for about 45 pips. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but first look at GDP for Q3 in the morning is a quarterly number that we trade half size ahead of.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Under our order staggering, the GBPUSD went only 1 pip above the trigger level above A on the chart, which might have triggered 1 piece of your trade (or not); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, closed second half on a lowered stop at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/25/11

Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

What a horrible session in every way! About the narrowest ranges I can recall in a day, and just a choppy mess that ignored anything technical. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Closed out the second half of the trade from the prior session for a 40 pip winner, but the new calls did nothing. Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B asnd stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight and stopped. If you were awake to put it back in in the morning, triggered at B and hit first target at C and reversed just as quickly:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/19/11

Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

Early trigger in the GBPUSD led to a winner, but no additional calls ahead of CPI. See GBPUSD section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early (half size or even less as we were half size for the night ahead of CPI) at A, hit first target at B, stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/18/11

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

A winner in the GBPUSD that triggered early, so I adjusted the stop after it hit the first target and made new calls in the EURUSD, one of which triggered and worked too. See both sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three each month, so half-size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

EURUSD:

These calls were added ahead of the European session after the GBPUSD went early. Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and then lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C (could have gone lower overnight if you were awake):

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop and stopped second half at C. I canceled the short idea in favor of the EURUSD calls, but it ironically still triggered at D and hit first target at E:

Tradesight Twelve Month Forex Calls Track Record

Monday, October 17th, 2011

We recently posted the net results of our trade calls for September. At this point, we have officially posted monthly results for 12 months. Our forex service launched in 2004, and we have all of our trades archived, which are still available to subscribers, but they were not broken down monthly for net results.

You can now review every day of trading for the last year by clicking on this link and scrolling down as you go. These blog summaries don’t include our full forex reports for each day, but they recap our official trade calls that we gave for the session.

In addition, you can view the twelve separate one month summaries by clicking here and scrolling down as you go.

Today, I’ve put together net results of the service, and I wanted to make some comments about what it means for our methodology. Let’s start with a couple of different looks at the data.

For the year, we had 427 calls THAT triggered. That means we likely had about 700 official calls in total. Our win ratio on those 427 calls was 52.46%. That means we lost on 203 out of 427 calls. Our goal is a 50-60% win ratio, so we fell into that range, even if it was on the low side of the range.

We had only one month of negative results, and that was January 2010. Our win ratio there was only 34.29% and we lost 40 pips net.

The other 11 months were positive, and our win ratios in those months ranged from 42.5% through 70.0%.

The total net gain in pips accounting for stops, partials, and final exits was approximately 3446 pips. That’s a pretty solid number for a year.

Our system doesn’t rely on you magically catching one or two trades that accounted for most of those pips. In fact, there probably were no winners over 150 pips net (partial and final) in the year. But, it shows the importance of a net strategy of maintaining tight stops and letting the winners ride. Even though we only won 52.46% of our trades, the gains speak for themselves. And yes, you can have losing months. We had one. We also had three months where the net gains were barely over 100 pips, including August, which is typically the slowest month of the year. None of this analysis accounts for adjusting size to account for slow periods, holidays, or news. These are just the raw numbers.

When we get through October, November, and December, we will post net numbers for 2011, but it isn’t likely that the average overall will vary much. I think it demonstrates clearly that the Tradesight Forex system works and does not require a lot of time. This is not our active trading service that we teach separately where you need to monitor the market. This is our “set and forget” strategy where you get the calls in the evening, put them in, and check at key times of day to make adjustments. It requires about 30 minutes of your day, and I think it’s worth the time.

Forex Calls Recap for 10/14/11

Friday, October 14th, 2011

A nothing night to end the week. See GBPUSD below for triggers.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the trades from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see) below.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and chat Sunday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, went 40 pips which is just short of the 45-50 pip target, raised stop under UBreak and stopped tight at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/12/11

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Very nice winner. See GBPUSD below, and still holding.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our big three each month.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B and much more, currently holding with a stop under the line:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/5/11

Friday, October 7th, 2011

An interesting night with very little range. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below for triggers.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long over red UBreak line and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A and gave you hours to entry before finally stopping overnight. Triggered short at B in the morning, note the 13-bar buy signal that was the low, and eventually closed at C for a few pips gain with time running out:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/4/11

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

A terrific session. We closed out a 100 pip winner from the prior day and had two more clean winners. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market direction lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

First, the second half of the short from the prior session stopped at A for 100 pips. Then, new trade triggered long at B, hit first target at C, note the specific use of VAH and R1 at D, raised stop under entry and stopped final piece at E:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, finally hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped final over entry at C:

FOREX Calls Recap for 9/29/11

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

Lots of winners in the session, including additional calls for the European session since our first call went early. See GBPUSD and EURUSD below.

US Dollar Index intraday with market direction (once again, check out the Seeker counts and their predictive power):

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target to the pip at B, raised stop and it stopped in the morning at C:

GBPUSD:

Second half of short from prior day stopped in the money at A. New trade triggered long at B, hit first target at C, closed second half right under entry at D in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/11

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Interesting session with lots of Seeker signals of use. I’m going to write up the US Dollar Index separately and post to the Blog tonight for discussion, but here it is with market direction lines and the Seeker:

Losers and a winner (still going) in the GBPUSD, see below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Rosh Hashanah holiday starts tomorrow, which can slow things down a bit.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A (just barely, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them both back in the morning and long triggered at C and stopped, but the better trade was the short as I said last night. That triggered at D, went EXACTLY to the VAL target at E (and bottomed out on a Seeker 9-bar setup) and still holding the second half:

Profitable GBPUSD Seeker Sell Signal

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

We’ve had a lot of interest in our Seeker tool lately, so I wanted to take some time to walk through a 13-bar Signal on today’s GBPUSD 5-minute chart to show how the tool can be used.

We’ll start with a look at the GBPUSD around 6:00 am PST / 9:00 am EST this morning (charts are PST). It is currently 7 bars into the SETUP phase of the Seeker tool, which are the green numbers. Once you get to 9 (see recent course for the count methodology); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES the setup is complete and in place:

A few bars later, we get the 9, so the Setup is in force. The red count is the actual Seeker Countdown using a non-sequential 2-bar look back from close of the bar to low of the bar two bars back. Note that the red count begins as soon as the green 9 is complete:

Also, understand that the 4-bar look back count that is used to generate the 9-bar green setup phase can actually continue beyond the 9th bar. Although you don’t need those additional bars (i.e. they are not labeled 10, 11, etc.) for the red Countdown to begin, our tool draws a box around the setup count once the 4-bar look back is broken. So in this case, the Setup count methodology continued for four bars after the 9, and then the box is drawn:

Moving forward, we now see the red count underway. Remember that this count does NOT need to consecutive. Also the red line D is the Static Trendline of the setup count, which is the low of the range of that count:

Seeker signals are a test of patience. This one proceeds fairly quickly but still takes over an hour to get to the 10th red count. 3 to go at this point:

Finally, we get our 13 signal, which is a sell signal by default. You’ll also see that the pink risk line begins to draw after that. Basically, the trade is to sell short at the 13 (or if you want to be conservative, sell when you break the low of a 5-minute bar after the 13) with a stop over the risk level:

The risk line is F, and the GBPUSD starts to roll without touching it:

Over the next 30 minutes, it works nicely as we shuffle into the end of day:

Ends up being about a 50 pip winner at that point. Hard to complain, and very easy to follow if you have time to watch. Note that this tool works on all asset classes and all timeframes equally.

Forex Calls Recap for 9/26/11

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Two winners to start the week, one on the EURUSD and one on the GBPUSD, see below. Interestingly, the US Dollar index ended up right where it started again anyway. Here’s the Index with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (so half size) at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long new calls at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped (just barely) at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/23/11

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

Fairly dull session with a winner for us on the GBPUSD, see below. As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action on all pairs from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (not much new to see); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Speaking of, here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you all the way to B to enter without stopping, hit first target at C, raised stop twice, note the bounce off VWAP at D, and closed for end of week at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/21/11

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

Strange action, and the US Dollar got stronger after the Fed announcement. Triggers in both the GBPUSD and EURUSD, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Amazing how these levels get used. If you follow our order staggering, part of the long trade triggered at A and stopped at B. Interestingly, the same exact price hit at C, so part of the trade might have triggered and stopped, but the rest triggered after that, hit first target at D, stopped under entry at E:

GBPUSD:

Meanwhile, a clean trade here, triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C for almost 100 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/14/11

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

Interesting session that went just about nowhere in the end again. Two winners and a loser for the session. See GBPUSD and EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but we go half size ahead of CPI in the morning.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

I added calls in the EURUSD ahead of the European session because the GBPUSD short triggered early. Here, we triggered long at A and stopped at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, adjusted stop in the morning and stopped at C just over entry. Same trade re-entered in the morning, same result, short at D, partial at E, closed last piece at F:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/13/11

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

Not a very interesting night, but a learning trade in the GBPUSD based on order staggering, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Our system teaches an order staggering methodology where your entries and exits are spread out over several pips. Stops should be “20 pips plus spreads” based on the spreads for the pair that is being traded. In this case, the GBPUSD triggered short at A, went only “20 pips plus 1″ against at B, so might have stopped a leg of your trade if that was where you had the stop. Also could have re-entered for the European session as that potential stop occurred before midnight my time. Re-entry would have been C, or whatever pieces you still had on, hit first target at D, lowered stop over entry in the morning and stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/12/11

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Loser and a winner in the GBPUSD, basically a wash in a narrow session. See GBPUSD section below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, stopped at B. Triggered short again in the morning at C, closed at D as it hadn’t stopped or hit first target by end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/9/11

Friday, September 9th, 2011

Interesting close to the week and mostly flat until the US session. US Dollar Index broke out strongly in the end. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will review the action from Thursday night/Friday (loser and winner in GBPUSD); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look through the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index daily chart, which broke a key level this week.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Came back in the morning just in time to re-enter at B, hit first target at C, closed final piece at D for about a 60 pips average winner after a 25 pip average loser:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/7/11

Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

A very flat session for the Dollar Index. Here’s a look with our market directional lines:

Winner in the GBPUSD, see below. New calls and Chat this evening, but we have Trade Balance in the morning, so I will be half size (along with rate announcements out of UK and ECB).

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/6/11

Tuesday, September 6th, 2011

The excitement was on the CHF-based stuff, although probably not to the extent that you could get any on the spike. Meanwhile, we had a loser and a winner, see GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here was the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A but gave you hours all the way to B to enter, then stopped. Triggered long perfectly at C then accelerated quickly to first target at D and stopped second half at E. The short triggered again and worked nice, but too early for me to get in:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/2/11

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

Another small winner to end the week in the GBPUSD, which was good to us this week.

No calls or Levels Sunday for the Labor Day holiday here in the US. Back to work Monday night.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll have a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special to see); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then discuss (briefly) the US Dollar Index.

The rest of the report is available for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap from 9/1/11

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

New trade on the GBPUSD stopped, but the second half of the prior day’s short closed out for 125 pips or so. See below.

New calls tonight and Chat, but we have NFP data in the morning, which is one of our big three each month, so I’m less than half size for it. Might get a setup for end of week bank closeout heading into the long weekend in the morning, unless they already left.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines as we track them:

GBPUSD:

Came into the session still short half of a position from the prior day and moved the stop over the UBreak, which was the red line at A. New trade triggered short overnight at B and unfortunately stopped me out at C by a few pips before working. However, the other short was still in place and I lowered the stop twice in the morning, finally stopping out over S2 at D for 125 pip gain to the final:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/31/11

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

An incredibly flat session, as we can clearly see in the intraday chart of the US Dollar Index with our market directional tools:

End up with our trades triggering a few times with not much reward until the last one, which I’m carrying over as I write this. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight. One more day after that until the long weekend and summer starts to set behind us.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. I had put the long back in before I went to bed, this triggered again at C and eventually stopped. Put the short back in in the morning, triggered at D, hit first target at E and holding the other half with a stop over LBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/30/11

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

Another nice winner and a decent week so far as we try to wrap up the month, and leave Summer and the August doldrums behind us soon. See GBPUSD below for the trade summary that worked.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

First, we stopped out of the second half of the trade from the prior session slightly in the money under the Pivot at A. Then we triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered the stop twice in the morning and stopped out at D for about 80 pips of gain:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/29/11

Monday, August 29th, 2011

We ended up with narrow ranges from a combination of August doldrums, the storm keeping people home on the east coast, and a UK Holiday, but still pulled off a clean winner in the GBPUSD of all things. See below for the review, and we still have the trade.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under entry (UBreak red line) and holding, stop is under C, which it bounced off of. Will probably stop, but you never know:

Forex Calls Recap 8/25/11

Friday, August 26th, 2011

Another mixed session that didn’t go far on the US Dollar Index. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below for summaries, as we closed out a nice winner on the GBPUSD from the prior session.

New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, came within 3 pips of first target at B, so whehter you got a leg off depends on how you stagger your orders. I closed it at the entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Stopped out of last piece of short from prior session at A for about a 100 pip winner. This was also the long trigger for the session, which stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/24/11

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Losers on the EURUSD but a nice winner still running on the GBPUSD, see both below. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Put it back in in the morning, triggered long at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Clean triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop a few times and currently have stop 1.6400 at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/22/11

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

A really dull session, with about pips of range on the EURUSD, which ended up right where it started again. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t hit first target, moved stop under entry at and stopped at B in the morning:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short under LBreak and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/17/11

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

Winner and loser for the session, nothing special. August continues.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and raised stop on second half and stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

This is a little more interesting and requires a discussion. Our courses teach an order staggering method for getting into trades over a few pips at the entries. In the case of this trade, at point A, it went 4 pips under the trigger line, which could have triggered some (or all if you were really aggressive) of the staggered entries. Those would have stopped. Then, it triggered again at B, so if you still had pieces of your trades that hadn’t triggered the first time, they would have fired at B, However, here, it was on a quick news spike, and if you used Stop-Limit orders correctly, you might not have been filled at all (which is fine). It then hit the first target at C and reversed hard. For tracking purposes, we’re just going to count this as a regular loss/stop-out, but in reality if you followed the rules, it might have been a little more complicated:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/12/11

Friday, August 12th, 2011

Not a great week at all, which feels like what we usually see out of August, even though you would think it would be fine with everything going on in the world. Another day with stop outs, our worst string in months. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. I will be sticking with half size as it appears we are in the usual August doldrums without quite as narrow ranges. If things shift about, I’ll return to full size. On a typical year, I’m half size for 5-6 weeks around this period anyway.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls Sunday and Chat to start the week.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index below.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Barely 100 pips of range. Note the use of Pivot (point B) and VAH (point C); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES but that doesn’t really help us in that scenario:

GBPUSD:

After setting the Pivot twice, clean trigger short at A, but only went about 30 pips and stopped. Note that the breakout over UBreak ran straight to R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/11/11

Friday, August 12th, 2011

Very interesting that with all of the volatility in the stock market, the forex market is fairly flat. We did get good range in the session, but EURUSD ended up right where it started. In fact, this whole week has been fairly flat on the US Dollar Index in general, which is a little unexpected. I will say, however, that this is August. August is generally the slowest month of the year for Forex, but based on everything going on globally, it seemed like it was going to be more volatile than usual. So far, my thoughts on this are mixed as we’re definitely seeing a slowdown in action versus what we say in the last two months. If the ranges start to narrow (as they did two days this week); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES we may do our usual August thing and drop to permanent half size until they come back in September.

Winner on the GBPUSD call and loser on the EURUSD, half size ahead of Trade Balance, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional levels:

New call and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Added a later call here since the GBPUSD went early, triggered long at A and stopped. Also triggered in the morning at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/10/11

Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

Unusual trade last night that demonstrates how precise what we do actually is. Two pips made a difference. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

We stagger entries for a reason. Two pieces of my trade triggered at A and stopped, then the rest went through at B. Note that we moved exactly to the first target to the pip at C, which closed me out of what I had without the other pieces. If you were awake, could have also taken the trigger at D and hit the first target at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/8/11

Monday, August 8th, 2011

Forex trading was actually fairly stable after the news of the weekend. There was a gap early, which messes up the Levels, but the GBPUSD for example ended up right about where it closed Friday. I kept trading light given the environment, and you can read the recap below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Very early short triggers at A and B both stopped. On the main session, triggered long at C and stopped. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, closed final piece at F:

Tradesight July Forex Results

Friday, August 5th, 2011

Before we get to June’s numbers (which were huge); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for June 2011

Number of trades: 42
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 59.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26-27)
Net pips: +645

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for July 2011

Number of trades: 41
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 56.1%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (July 30-31)
Net pips: +410

After a huge month of June that I believe set a near record for gains for us, July wasn’t too shabby either. We netted out 410 pips. After a while, you should see the pattern emerging if you go back and look at that results going back several months. We almost always average between 50 and 60 percent winners. The one month of the year that we were significantly under that at 37% (January of 2011) was a negative month. However, all of the other months averaged right in that range (one month was higher as well). That’s about exactly where our system is meant to land, with the losers then being kept to a very specific small amount and the winners being allowed to run when they do. I’ll be doing a complete summary of all of 2011 at the end of the year, but right now, I can tell you that our win ratio for the year is about 55%. Some people think you need to be higher to win at forex, but I don’t agree. I think systems that have higher win ratios have to take on more risk per trade, and that’s the secret to success.

Not much to say about the ranges this month. The six month Average Daily Range of almost all of the pairs stayed relatively stable, which means that our ranges this month were not extremely high or low. Obviously, things got wider in the last few days of the month, but overall, it’s right where we like to see it. We had 6 trades during the month that led to over 100 pip winners to the final exit, so it wasn’t that you had to catch one of two specific trades to make most of the gains, as has happened a couple of times.

Looking ahead, August is typically the slowest Forex trading month of the year, but obviously there is a lot going on in the world, and this August might be the exception. I usually drop to half size trading when the ranges drop in August, but we haven’t seen that yet, and I’m not going to do that until it happens.

Forex Calls Recap for 8/5/11

Friday, August 5th, 2011

Winner and a loser to close out the week. See GBPUSD below. Our FX results for July will be posted to the Blog this weekend. It was a good month.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

After a flat night, triggered long just barely at A and stopped at B. Re-entered and gave you two chances in the US session just before C to take it. Hit first target at D and closed final piece at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/28/11

Friday, July 29th, 2011

Holy Cow! What was that? The narrowest non-Holiday ranges in over 270 trading days (I checked). GBPUSD in a 60 pip range. This is why we’re half size now as the market is clearly waiting for resolution from Washington. Do these clowns not get that they have been holding up the markets with this nonsense? Stock market volume has been down for almost two months now (until this week when it picked up heading lower as it starts to get worried). 60 pips of range on the GBPUSD. Unreal.

See EURUSD and GBPUSD below for recaps.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

EURUSD:

Triggered short way early at A (so quarter size for me) and stopped. Triggered short again at B and stopped. Second half of the trade from the prior day stopped out at C over UBreak for an 80 pip winner. Too bad for the trigger at B because it triggered again at D and worked to E if you were awake:

GBPUSD:

Amazing. 60 pips of range. Triggered long at A, at least pieces of your trade depending on how you staggered the entries. It got 4 pips past the number, and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/21/11

Thursday, July 21st, 2011

A winner and a loser unfortunately, mostly because the later trigger overnight on the GBPUSD long worked great even though the first one stopped, and I wasn’t awake yet for the second one.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped, which is unfortunate because this was a nice breakout setup, and it triggered again in the morning at B (but before the time that we count them again at 9 am EST) and ran 150 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/20/11

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Two stopouts, the first time in a while we’ve seen that. Ranges were very narrow and contained all of the sudden. The Value Area on the GBPJPY, which I focused on in the Lab yesterday evening, worked perfect, so see that section below as well as the GBPUSD for the stop outs.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional levels:

New calls tonight and Chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (one leg might have triggered just before that on the first test of that level) and stopped at B. Triggered long at C, stopped at D. Triggered long again at E but closed flat at F as session ran out of time and we weren’t going anywhere:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/19/11

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

More winners and a stop out, see EURUSD and GBPUSD below. We also closed the second half of the prior day’s short in GBPUSD in the money.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. No major data overnight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Stopped final half of prior day’s trades at A for 20 pip gain. This also was the new long entry, but it gave you hours and hours all the way to B to enter. Hit first target at C, raised stop and stopped final piece at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/18/11

Monday, July 18th, 2011

A loser and a winner to start the week. New calls and Chat tonight. Ranges in the European session were dead, partially due to a bank Holiday in Japan, but they picked up in the US session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional levels:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped at B. Put back in the orders for the US session, triggered short at C and hit first target at D, holding with a stop over S1 (entry):

Forex Calls Recap for 7/13/11

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

Average session until after Bernanke gave his opening comments to Congress. See GBPUSD below for the trade review.

US Dollar Index intraday with market direction tools:

GBPUSD:

There was a really early trigger at A that stopped but I was on the road. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped at D. Triggered again in the morning at E, hit first target at F, holding with stop under G:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/6/11

Wednesday, July 6th, 2011

Another interesting session as our EURUSD trade continued, and we added a winner and loser in the GBPUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight, but we have rate announcements out of Europe and the Bank of England overnight. NFP data Friday morning too.

EURUSD:

Our prior day’s short came up to hit our UBreak stop at A and B but never got through enough for the stop. Lowered stop several times during the session and currently holding with stop a few pips over 1.4525:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/5/11

Tuesday, July 5th, 2011

Nice start to the week. Winners in EURUSD and GBPUSD, although we also had one stop out on GBPUSD. See both sections in the report below for the review.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight with only three days left for the week.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, holding position with stop over S1:

GBPUSD:

Calls for the European session triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, raised stop under Pivot and stopped at D:

Tradesight June Forex Results

Friday, July 1st, 2011

Before we get to June’s numbers (which were huge); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here.

Tradesight Pip Results for May 2011

Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (May 16-19)
Net pips: +266

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for June 2011

Number of trades: 42
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 59.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26-27)
Net pips: +645

Just a stellar month with several calls leading to triple-digit pip gains. It was a month where the market behaved very technically and reaching first targets was more common, increasing our win rate to almost 60% of triggered trades. One key here is that average daily range on the EURUSD has moved ahead of GBPUSD in the last few months, and we made more calls in the EURUSD this month. Additionally, the EURUSD 6-month Average Daily Range increased by 4 pips to 145 during the month of June, which means that we had a lot of days above that average to bring the 6-month number up. GBPUSD dropped to 136 pips of range per day. The JPY-based pairs continue to see less activity, with the USDJPY pair in particular being almost untradeable many days with 35 pips of range. Have to stay away from that pair for now.

Hopefully, July will continue to impress, as we know that August is, on average, the lightest month of the year for Forex ranges, but you never know.

Forex Calls Recap for 7/1/11

Friday, July 1st, 2011

Winner and losers to wrap up the week and month here. Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

See GBPUSD below for recap of calls. With the Fourth of July Holiday here in the US on Monday, there will be no Levels or calls Sunday and no report on Monday. Levels and calls will resume Monday after 5 pm EST. Have a great weekend.

The June summary of trades will be posted to the Blog today.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (early, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered short at C, hit 50 pips for first target at D, stopped second half at E. Triggered long at F and did nothing, closed even at G, no end of week bank closeout move:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/30/11

Thursday, June 30th, 2011

More winners for the session, see EURUSD and GBPUSD summaries below. Here’s the US Dollar Index with our market directional tool for the session:

New calls and Chat tonight to end the month of June and head into the long weekend. There will be no calls Sunday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A (early) but gave you plenty of time to enter through B without stopping, hit first target at C, stopped second piece at entry at D:

GBPUSD:

I added an additional call ahead of the European session short under red UBreak which swept at A and stopped unfortunately (worked later). Our other call triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped final piece just over entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/29/11

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

Another winner for the week in the EURUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market direction levels:

New calls and chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop to entry and stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

Added an additional call long at A which didn’t get going, closed even:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/23/11

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

Got some good action finally as the US Dollar got stronger for the session, we got big ranges in the GBPUSD and EURUSD, and we ended up with about 100 pip winners on both (see below).

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up the great week.

EURUSD:

This was an additional call made ahead of the European session, triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stopped the final piece for 100 pips at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A but gave you until European open at B to take without stopping, hit first target at C, stopped final in the money at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/21/11

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

One winner and one loser as the ranges narrowed a bit and not much happened. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. Initial calls were in EURUSD, but I added new calls in GBPUSD ahead of the European session as we had an early move that set some new Levels.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but we complete the 2-day Fed meeting tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed second piece at C and entry in morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/16/11

Thursday, June 16th, 2011

Closed out the final piece of the EURUSD trade from the prior session for 250 pips or so, and also a new winner on the GBPUSD that worked clean (see both sections below). In addition, take a look at the perfect USDJPY Value Area entry below.

New calls and Chat tonight heading into triple options and futures expiration, which is usually dull even for Forex because of all of the implications of those expirations.

Here’s the US Dollar intraday with market directional tool:

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the final piece of the prior day’s trade for 250 pips:

USDJPY:

Set the VAH perfect at A and then broke in at B short and worked:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and closed final piece at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/14/11

Tuesday, June 14th, 2011

Not a very exciting night. See GBPUSD and EURUSD for a winner and a loser, and there wasn’t much for additional setups. Also, see NZDUSD below for the scalp call review.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tool:

CPI in the morning is one of our Big Three data pieces each month, so half size. New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A early (half size) and didn’t work, stopped for 20 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, raised stop under UBreak entry and stopped second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/13/11

Monday, June 13th, 2011

Actually, a decent session for everything but the EURUSD, which was fairly contained. I was half size for the session due to the European Bank Holidays, which obviously played a role. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight, back to normal size until the CPI Wednesday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Added a call in the morning, triggered long at B, but it was very late, made a little move, and closed at C, right at entry:

GBPUSD:

On the other hand, the GBPUSD made a nice move through the UBreak level:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/9/11

Friday, June 10th, 2011

One winner and that was it. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, back to normal size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tools:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long over red UBreak line, hit first target at R1, second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/8/11

Wednesday, June 8th, 2011

A news spike triggered the new trade that might not have made a fill possible. See GBPUSD below. Also, we closed out the final half of the EURUSD from the prior session in the money.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our big three.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s long at A for about 80 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (but this was a major news spike and a rare example where you might not have been filled); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, closed last piece at C if you got any:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/7/11

Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

Stopped out of the prior day’s trade well in the money, then entered an early trigger and stopped, then entered a new trade that worked great again. Nice start to the month. See GBPUSD and EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of second half of prior day’s short at A. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, still holding with a stop under the black line at 1.4660:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) and at A and stopped at B:

Tradesight May Forex Results

Friday, June 3rd, 2011

Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here.

Tradesight Pip Results for April 2011

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row (twice)
Net pips: +140

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for May 2011

Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (May 16-19)
Net pips: +266

I much better return to form as we had 10 more trades trigger in May than April and things went pretty well and were spread out again. The interesting thing is that the Average Daily Ranges (6 month) dropped 2-4 pips on most of the pairs (except the AUDUSD and NZDUSD) during May, which is again a pretty sharp drop on a number based on six months worth of data when only 23 days are new. Still, the system works because holding winners into the next session pays off, and this time, there were several nice gainers scattered throughout the month. We ended up with a total net gain of 266 pips, which is much better than the last few months. As long as at least 3-4 months of the year are 250 pips or higher, we’re in good shape since we keep such tight stops.

It would be more interesting to see the average ranges gain for the first time in a while, which should only provide us with better results. Late summer isn’t the usual time to see that, but you never know, and we have early summer to deal with first. On to June…

Forex Calls Recap for 6/3/11

Friday, June 3rd, 2011

Closed out the week with two winners on the GPUSD, one for small size ahead of NFP data, but the second came after the data in the morning, so thus, full size. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tools for the session:

As usual with the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index.

May results will be posted to the Blog and Messenger over the weekend.

New calls and Chat Sunday with Levels.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (early, so partial size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES gave you a chance to take right at my midnight at the European session start, hit first target at B, closed second piece at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, closed final piece to end the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/25/11

Wednesday, May 25th, 2011

Nice night with two winners, one still going in the GBPUSD. See below (also EURUSD). New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding with stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/19/11

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Another dull session, but this one with the narrowest ranges of the week. Almost went another day without a trigger. See GBPUSD and NZDUSD below.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls tonight. No major news due, and tomorrow is options expiration, which doesn’t directly affect Forex except at the quarterly expiration, but it can still mean the major players are…paying less attention.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

NZDUSD:

Mentioned in the initial comments the two-day base against UBreak for a scalp entry. That triggered at A and worked:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/18/11

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

For the first time in months, neither trade triggered as we split the calls between the EURUSD and GBPUSD. The usual GBPUSD setup did trigger and worked, but the call in that direction was on the EURUSD, which set the trigger beautifully but never triggered. See both below.

Here’s the US Dollar index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Short trigger call was under VAH, which it hit exactly at A and never broke, nice setup if it had gone. Note that the range was contained to basically between the R1 and Pivot, which is light:

GBPUSD:

The trade for weakness in the USD was the GBPUSD over UBreak, which it approached at the highs but never got to. Meanwhile, following our system, the short in the GBPUSD would have been under LBreak, which worked to S1 from A to B. Sometimes, it is worth doing both:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/16/11

Monday, May 16th, 2011

The Dollar got weaker overnight, but it didn’t carry the GBPUSD far, so we had a stop out. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Re-entered in the morning and triggered again at B, eventually moved stop to the entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/12/11

Thursday, May 12th, 2011

More winners as the EURUSD trade from the prior session closed out in the money and the GBPUSD triggered short and worked. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three, so half size.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of final piece at A for a nice winner, you could have also lowered the stop several times overnight if you wished:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stopped final piece at C in the morning:

The Importance of Ranges and Volatility in Forex

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

I get asked all of the time what the secret is to making money trading. The answer is simple, though not something people typically want to hear. If I had to pick one thing to teach new traders, I would say this: “Markets ebb and flow, but you need range, volume, and volatility to make money. The secret to success is that you have to stick around for those periods.”

When it comes to Forex, there isn’t really a true volume measure, but we can look at daily ranges to understand whether people are trading. We look for certain averages. When those averages occur, then things are good. It’s easier to make money, for example, when the GBPUSD moves 180 pips in a night than when it moves only 110. At 110 pips, by the time you spot a setup, a support or resistance point, and an entry, once that triggers, you don’t really move far enough to make good things happen. The reality is, you don’t make money in Forex trading for 20 pips. You have to look for something bigger, and that requires range.

Last June and July were great for ranges. Last October (late in the month) and November were great for ranges. In those months where ranges are good, you need to make good money, because the reality is that in average months, you’ll tread just above water, and in poor months, if you miss just a few trades that end up being the big winners for the month, you’re in trouble.

This is why we push so hard on the 6-month average daily ranges that we calculate. It’s important to understand that if the GBPUSD’s six month average daily range is 160, then that means that over the last six months, it’s traded above and below that level, but that your expectation can be around 160 pips. If that runs up to 200 pips, then the GBPUSD ranges have expanded wildly, almost to the point of being too crazy on some days. On the other hand, if it drops to 130 or 140 pips, you’ve got trouble because the market isn’t moving. That probably means that you have days where the GBPUSD is trading under 100 pips of range. No matter what anyone wants to believe, there is no success in a 100 pip range, especially if it ends up meaning 100 pips per day and 200 pips per week. That means you aren’t moving in one direction either.

But you can’t expect markets to be exciting all of the time. Granted, the drop-off that we have seen in Forex the last two months is pretty bad. I haven’t seen it like this since 2006. But there will be more exciting times ahead. Just remember, you make your money in those more volatile times, and you hopefully have a system that treads water or doesn’t crush you when everyone takes a break.

Tradesight April Forex Results…

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2011

Number of trades: 37
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 51.3%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (twice)
Net pips: +190

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for April 2011

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row (twice)
Net pips: +140

This was a pretty straight-forward, clean month, although certainly nothing exceptional as the ranges have dropped sharply. We never had more than 2 losses in a row, which is pretty minor. We had less trades trigger than usual because we had a couple of global bank Holidays and other days where no trades triggered. We won slightly more than half of the trades, but we had plenty of clean winners that triggered and got adjusted in the money. One thing of note…we didn’t have any major trades that turned into several-hundred pip winners as we usually do at some point in the month. The biggest two winners, after you account for partials and final closes, were closed within two days and added up to 70 pips. Having said that, the net results of the month were only 140 pips total, so missing two trades like that would have had quite an impact on your net numbers. We really need to see better ranges.

Speaking of which, back at the beginning of April, the six-month trailing average on the EURUSD for range was 150 pips per day. It closed out April down at 143 pips. A 7-pip drop to the six-month average in one month is the biggest that we have seen, and it means quite a bit about how bad ranges were. The GBPUSD went from 146 to 140 in the month. That’s also quite a drop. AUDUSD dropped 6 pips on average as well. The cross pairs picked up a bit, with the GBPJPY going from 143 to 151. Unfortunately, not everyone likes to trade the cross pairs due to liquidity and spread issues, but it seems that even though the US Dollar broke to new 1-year lows this month, it didn’t create a lot of excitement in those pairs.

The US Dollar remains at a critical point here and a move either way will likely start to see the ranges improve. We shall see. On to April…

Forex Calls Recap for 5/5/11

Thursday, May 5th, 2011

Half size session ahead of all of the rate announcements, so not much for me here, but one trade worked and one didn’t. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early at A but gave you a chance to enter at B just ahead of the European session, hit first target at C, second half stopped. Triggered short overnight at D and stopped. That trade triggered again and worked, but I wasn’t awake yet to take it:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/2/11

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

Very narrow action and not much to do. The narrow Levels spacing and early trading action made me wait to make calls until later than usual. Then we had a loser and a winner which adds up to not much in very narrow ranges.

Here’s the US Dollar Index with market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Set the short trigger exactly at A but never got through. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them back in in the morning and triggered long at C, hit first target at D, and closed final at E:

The reviews of the other pairs are available to subscribers and trial members only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/27/11

Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

One winner on the GBPUSD ahead of the Fed (half size). See below. Meanwhile, here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in morning and stopped at C, all ahead of the Fed:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/20/11

Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

US Dollar got weaker again during the session. Here’s the index with our market directional tool, negative all the way through:

Two nice winners in the GBPUSD (one from this session and one carryover from the last session). See below.

New calls and chat tonight for the last trading day of the week.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target for 50 pips at B, stopped second half at C. We still had the second half of the prior day’s trade on with a stop overnight at 1.6300, which didn’t stop, and then raised it in the morning and stopped at D for over 100 pips:

The summary of the other pairs is available to subscribers and trial members only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/19/11

Tuesday, April 19th, 2011

US Dollar declined overnight, here’s the index with market directional tool lines:

GBPUSD stopped twice and worked in the morning. Carrying over a piece (see below). New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Said in the Messenger to put them back in in the morning. Triggered long at C, hit first target exactly at D, still holding second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/18/11

Monday, April 18th, 2011

Despite the S&P downgrade of US Debt, the Dollar got stronger for the session and used the midpoint as support most of the way:

We had a winner in the GBPUSD, see below. New calls and chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped, all before the craziness:

The rest of the pairs are available to subscribers and trial members only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/15/11

Friday, April 15th, 2011

Exactly what you would expect ahead of one of our Big Three numbers (CPI in this case) and the reason that we do half size ahead of those data points. See GBPUSD below. On to next week…

Here’s the US Dollar Index with market directional tool:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (check out NZDUSD) and then look at the Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and long at B, both stopped in a narrow session, both were half size ahead of the data. Put them back in for full size in the morning after the data, triggered short at C, didn’t reach first target quite, closed at D for end of week:

The rest of the report is available to members and trial users only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/14/11

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

We continue to trade winners and losers on a flat week with little range. Today was a winner on the GBPUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index with the market directional lines:

New calls tonight and chat, but will be half-size ahead of CPI.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped at C in the money overnight:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/12/11

Tuesday, April 12th, 2011

An early trigger that worked (see GBPUSD below) and that was it. US Dollar declined during the session. Here’s the index with the market directional tool:

New calls and chat tonight for subscribers.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, lowered stop and most likely stopped at C overnight:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/11/11

Monday, April 11th, 2011

I can count on my two hands the number of days in 7 years of making Forex calls that I haven’t been able to find setups that I liked, and this was one of them. Not surprisingly, the market didn’t do anything, so when the market doesn’t give you setups you like, don’t expect much, which is why I used half size on the calls I did eventually make.

Here’s the Dollar index intraday with market directional lines, not much movement:

See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/8/11

Friday, April 8th, 2011

Another winner to close out the week and we’re back to flat, which is probably the place to be.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday from Friday with the market directional tool…obviously red most of the session:

Winner was in the GBPUSD. As usual, for the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing to see) and then look at the US Dollar daily chart.

EURUSD with our Levels:

GBPUSD with our Levels:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped in the morning under the entry at C:

The rest of the report with our recaps on ten pairs, preview of the daily charts of those pairs, and discussion of the US Dollar Index is available for subscribers and trial members only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/5/11

Tuesday, April 5th, 2011

Been a while, but we had a trigger hit on a major news spike that may have prevented most from getting an execution. See GBPUSD below. That is something that can happen in Forex.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, but on a big spike where your broker may or may not have filled you (or with bad slippage if you just used a stop); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at C, and should have raised stop later to D if you got any:

Tradesight March Forex Results…

Monday, April 4th, 2011

Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report can be found here.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2011

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 12
Winning percentage: 60%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (February 16-18)
Net pips: +235

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2011

Number of trades: 37
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 51.3%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (twice)
Net pips: +190

Although we had more winners than losers, three of the trades for the month were +75, +55, and +55 pips after partial and final exit. That about totals the whole gain for the month. As usual, the strategy works fine even when the number of losers rises a bit if you end up letting some of the trades play out.

Ranges, however, continued to drop in the month, which has been the story. We had more days under average range, and the EURUSD and GBPUSD both dropped 4 points of average daily range during the month, which is a lot when you consider that we’re taking six months of data into those averages. We did, however, see slight increases in ranges for pairs like the GBPJPY and EURJPY. Not everyone likes to trade the cross pairs, but they have been slightly more interesting on average.

The US Dollar remains at a critical point here and a move either way will likely start to see the ranges improve. We shall see. On to April…

Forex Calls Recap for 4/4/11

Monday, April 4th, 2011

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool (very narrow session overall):

GBPUSD trade triggered, see below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Only 70 pips of range for the session, which is horrible. Triggered long at A, came within a couple of pips of the R1 first target at B and C, so depending on where you had your order, you might have been taking out of a piece, otherwise, it eventually stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/1/11

Friday, April 1st, 2011

Half size ahead of NFP, and this was a good example of why. Both the long and short triggered and stopped. However, after NFP, back to full size and a nice winner to close the week and wrap the calls from March. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market direction tools:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and short at B, both half size ahead of NFP, and both stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, closed final piece at the end of the chart:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/31/11

Friday, April 1st, 2011

Half size ahead of NFP, and this was a good example of why. Both the long and short triggered and stopped. However, after NFP, back to full size and a nice winner to close the week and wrap the calls from March. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market direction tools:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and short at B, both half size ahead of NFP, and both stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, closed final piece at the end of the chart:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/30/11

Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with the market directional tools:

GBPUSD, one winner after two early trigger losers and once again ended up near where we started. See below. New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (partial size) and stopped. Same on the short side at B. Main trade triggered at C after setting the level, hit first target at D, closed final at E in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/29/11

Tuesday, March 29th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index with market directional lines where the midpoint and opening level ended up being about the same, and we closed right above that level:

No new progress again. See GBPUSD for trade results.

New calls tonight and chat. All of the markets feel extremely slow this week.

GBPUSD:

One leg of the long triggered at A and stopped (the other two legs did not under our rules). Short triggered at B, reached down to within a couple of pips of the first target at C, and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/28/11

Monday, March 28th, 2011

Pretty narrow activity but a winning trade for us in the GBPUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index 5-minute chart for the session with our market directional tool:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B for that 45-50 pip range, second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/24/11

Thursday, March 24th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index with our market directional tool for the session:

Another clean winner and we stopped out of the final piece of the prior day’s trade for a 150-pip gain. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C. Also stopped out of the short from the prior day here for 150 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/23/11

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2011

US Dollar got stronger during the session eventually. Here’s the Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

Meanwhile, the nice EURJPY Value Area play that we called never triggered, and there was some activity on our GBPUSD, see below. New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Stopped out of the last piece of the prior day’s long and then triggered short under Pivot early (half size) at A. That stopped, then we triggered short at B, might have stopped a piece of your trade, which is supposed to be a staggered exit above 20 pips plus spreads and it went 21 pips, and then hit first target at C and beyond, lowered stop and still holding final piece with stop over D:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/22/11

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

Another day, another winner in the GBPUSD, and this time, it’s still going. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and chat tonight. Seems like a very tame, yet organized, week.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding last piece long with stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/21/11

Monday, March 21st, 2011

A fairly flat session. Here’s the US Dollar Index with our market directional lines:

Very slow night on a lot of the pairs, such as the EURUSD (see below). However, our GBPUSD still managed to be a winner despite the range issues. See below. New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

Very flat action all night:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C in the money. Note the use of the VWAP:

FOREX Calls Recap for 3/17/11

Thursday, March 17th, 2011

US Dollar Index with our market direction tool:

We had the perfect trade setup in the GBPUSD (if you’ve taken the course, you should have been drooling) and it triggered during the European session, which is ideal for that pair, and worked perfectly. See below.

New calls tonight and chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long into the Value Area over A, hit first target at B, covered the Value Area, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/15/11

Tuesday, March 15th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index for the session, with the Fed announcement late in the day that did very little:

Winner on the GBPUSD, see below.

Back to normal, new calls and Chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/14/11

Monday, March 14th, 2011

Not too exciting of a session despite all that is happening in the world. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday:

New calls tonight and Chat, but the Fed meeting tomorrow should keep things slow.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, barely missed the stop, hit first target at C and beyond, still holding with a stop under R2:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/11/11

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Pretty dull session after a pretty exciting one. Locked in over a 100 pip winner on the last half of the trade from the prior day, and then the new trade barely stopped us out by a couple of pips before working fine. See GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week. US Dollar got weaker Friday. Here’s the intraday action on the Index with our market directional tool:

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Last piece of prior day’s trade closed at A for about 115 pips. Triggered short overnight at B and stopped by a couple of pips at C before triggering again (if you were awake, I wasn’t) at D and hitting first target at E:

Take a trial or join our services for the rest of the report and the outlook for the new week.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/10/11

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index, which was nothing but green and up all day using our measurements:

Nice winner in the GBPUSD, still carrying some. New calls tonight and Chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B, gave you chance to take again at C or just after, hit first target at D, lowered stop in the morning and carrying rest over with a stop over E:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/10/11

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index, which was nothing but green and up all day using our measurements:

Nice winner in the GBPUSD, still carrying some. New calls tonight and Chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B, gave you chance to take again at C or just after, hit first target at D, lowered stop in the morning and carrying rest over with a stop over E:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/9/11

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

The last half of the GBPUSD shorts from the last two days stopped in the money overnight, but new trades didn’t work. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here was the US Dollar Index intraday.

New calls tonight and Chat but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our Big Three, plus lots of European data overnight, including BoE rate announcement.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A and gave you all evening to enter, stopped at B. Triggered long at C and stopped. Re-entered in morning and triggered at D and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Stopped out of remainder of last two day’s short trades at A for gain:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/8/11

Tuesday, March 8th, 2011

Doesn’t look like much, but in fact, it was a good session as our GBPUSD short continues to work from the prior day, plus the new trade triggered short and hit the first target, so we have two trades in the same direction carrying forward with their second halves.

Meanwhile, here’s the US Dollar Index intraday, with nothing but strength using our measuring tool from the European open:

New calls and Chat tonight. Trade Balance Thursday morning.

GBPUSD:

Bounced off the trigger but did not enter at A, triggered at B, hit first target at C, and stop on both trades from both days now over LBreak at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/7/11

Monday, March 7th, 2011

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday…despite all of the movement, the net result was barely ending up above where it started:

Having said that, we ended up with two winners, with both trades on the GBPUSD triggering and hitting first target cleanly. One trade (the short) is still active. Also, note the AUDUSD Value Area below on the North American session.

New calls tonight and Chat.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long cleanly at A, hit first target at B, stopped at C (if you were awake overnight, stop should have been moved right under entry instead when it hit first target). Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, carrying second half with a stop over 1.6220:

AUDUSD:

Note the clean Value Area move from A to B on the North American session:

GBPUSD Target Update and US Dollar Index Analysis…

Friday, March 4th, 2011

Time to analyze the US Dollar Index, as we are getting to a “make or break” point here conceptually. While the chart certainly looks weak overall, it is important to recognize that from an energy perspective, it is sitting right on a static trendline (red line) of the last 9-bar move up, which could be support as these often serve as trade targets:

If that breaks, it isn’t far to the lows of the year, and if that breaks, look out. Meanwhile, let’s review what this means to our GBPUSD wave analysis conversation from last week, which you can read here. Here’s the updated daily chart:

The comment we made was that even though a breakout looked like it could be pending, the MoB line (blue and pink) target represents the likely goal of the move, and typically, you would expect to get it between the black lines at A and B.

Notice that because it took its time, the GBPUSD is now on a path to hit the MoB between the black lines, right on target. This suggests that, at least in the short term, the US Dollar Index will break lower.

Tradesight February Forex Results…

Friday, March 4th, 2011

Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report can be found here.

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 34.3%
Worst losing streak: 8 in a row (January 6-14)
Net pips: -40

January was our first losing month in years. February rebounded nicely even though the ranges died down. More on that below.

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2011

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 12
Winning percentage: 60%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (February 16-18)
Net pips: +235

Considering the biggest trade of the month was only a 65-pip net winner and only two trades total carried over into a second day, we’re pretty pleased with the results of the calls. It’s a nice rebound from the January loss and it wasn’t particularly difficult even though it wasn’t particularly exciting either.

I think the real concern here, though (and the thing to focus on) is the drop in ranges. Have a look at the various pairs. The first number is where their 6-month average daily range stood February 1 and the second number is where it ended the month. Remember that with six months of data, a shift of even 5 points in either direction is pretty meaningful because you have to bring the AVERAGE down.

EURUSD 153/152

USDJPY 77/73

GBPUSD 150/149

USDCAD 97/91

AUDUSD 118/114

NZDUSD 95/92

GBPJPY 143/137

EURJPY 132/125

Ranges matter. The US Dollar Index was fairly flat for the month as well. The EURUSD and GBPUSD held up, but everything else lost considerable range in the month. Higher ranges usually leads to better results. The USDJPY in particular is seeing too many days that are virtually untradeable due to their lack of range. We will continue to monitor.

On to March…

Forex Calls Recap for 3/3/11

Thursday, March 3rd, 2011

Pretty flat and contained night until the rate announcement out of Europe. Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index with market directional:

Small winner going in GBPUSD, see below. Several Value Area plays worked too, as discussed below.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of second half of prior day’s carryover trade under LBreak for a gain:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A. Stop was 20 pips plus spreads, which didn’t quite hit at B. Covered half at C even though it didn’t quite get to first target because the day was ending. Carrying second half with stop over Pivot (entry):

USDCAD:

Note the Value Area entry in the US session (has to be during that timeframe for this pair) that was heading down to VAL cleanly):

AUDUSD:

Value Area here was suggested under the Pivot, which was a short at A and was working:

NZDUSD:

Clean Value Area play from A to B:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/2/11

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2011

Here’s a look at the USD with market directional, including the only switch to negative at A:

Winner in the EURUSD that is carried over, smaller loser in the GBPUSD.

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, note how specifically it hit R2, and we have a stop on the remaining piece at R1:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/1/11

Tuesday, March 1st, 2011

All you have to do is look at the chart of the US Dollar Index for the session to see that this was a messy day that went nowhere. We crossed the opening level and the midpoint several times and closed around there too:

Meanwhile, we did have a winner in the GBPUSD to close out February. See below. New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A but gave you all the way until B to take the trade, never stopped, hit first target at C overnight, raised stop in the morning and stopped at D. Note the weird use of LBreak, which never cracked:

GBPUSD Breakout Projection Using MOB

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

MOB (Make or Break) Projection for GBPUSD Breakout

There is a lot of focus right now on the fact that the US Dollar Index looks extremely weak and is breaking some key technical indicator levels that threaten a potentially big downside move. One part of that equation is that weakness in the US Dollar would likely lead to a breakout of the cup and handle formation over 1.6299 on the GBPUSD, which is a multi-month and clean cup and handle formation, as seen here:

If we look at the chart with our 9-bar Seeker energy counting mechanism, we see a few key points. First, the beginning of the cup formation starts back at point A, which was a 9-bar move to the upside that topped the GBPUSD:

Second, on that same chart, the low is formed at B at the end of a 9-bar move down from the Seeker calculation. Third, the pair paused at C, another 9-bar top. So we have to say that the GBPUSD daily chart is very in tune with the 9-bar counting mechanism. What does that mean for now, where a cup and handle is set up at the end of that chart above at D, but we are 7 bars up on the daily? Is the breakout looming or should we pause after we get a 9 bar top signal?

Our analysis suggests that we could easily pause here ahead of that breakout and still meet the objectives of the breakout. If we draw a MOB (Make or Break) line in Elliott Wave theory from the last top, we get this line:

The most likely point of hitting the line is between the black vertical points, which means that we are still early. That means that we could get a 9-bar count, then pause for a bit to absorb that energy, and still breakout and hit that MOB line in the right place. Just something to focus on.

Take a trial of our services in your asset class here. Have a look at our Video Lesson of the Day on the home page here. Follow us on Twitter here.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/24/11

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Couple of losers for us finally after a decent last two weeks. EURUSD one way and GBPUSD the other as the two diverged overnight and didn’t trade much range anyway. See both below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Second look at GDP in the morning is not usually a big deal.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A early (half size) and stopped at B:

To view the full report, take a trial of the service.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/23/11

Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

Another winner in the GBPUSD as we came close to that daily chart breakout called in the Sunday report (don’t miss!). See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight. Ranges were average, which is fine.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C, raised stop and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/22/11 (with Seeker Educational Comment)

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

Nice winner to start out the week. Let’s keep track in 2011…so far, we’re 2 for 2 getting an early move coming back from a 3-day weekend. You have to get those full sized orders in at the start of the session after a Monday holiday here in the US.

See GBPUSD for the trade review and an extra educational section. New calls tonight and chat with three days left in the short week.

EURUSD:

After a big move down, recovered back to even overnight:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B, and then went flat for the European session and stopped me out of final piece at C. Note the retest of the entry exactly at D and then it rolled over to the tri-star level at E:

Now, let’s discuss this for a minute. At point E on that above chart, I had stated in our Trading lab that we were 9 bars down on the Seeker tool with a big move and hitting the tri-star level, so that would probably be it for the day. Here’s a screenshot about an hour later:

Note that we bottomed out right at that green tri-star level and the Seeker box completed (the box is drawn when it completes) and that was the bottom, just after I had pointed it out. A later attempt to make new lows failed. This is a proper use of the Seeker tool to measure energy exhaustion against key levels.

FX Analysis for the Week

Friday, February 18th, 2011

Let’s examine the market and see what the power might be behind the GBPUSD breakout play mentioned in our weekend report.

First, here’s a look at the play, which is a clean breakout of a cup and handle on the daily chart:

What does that mean? Well, to make it simple, what it means is that if the US Dollar breaks lower, that trigger should hit and go. So the important thing is that we analyze what the prospects are for the US Dollar Index here and add that to the discussion. And what does it look like? Let’s start here, with the daily chart, which now shows an inverted cup and handle formation against this major uptrend line:

If that breaks and then the GBPUSD breaks out, you should be all over it. Note that on that chart, we’re only 3 bars into the 9-bar count, so there is plenty of energy.

Meanwhile, go to a weekly chart on the US Dollar Index and you get this:

Here we see a significant 2 year trendline. If that breaks, that is the most significant sign that the USD is in trouble. Having said that, we are now, in projection mode, 6 bars down on the weekly chart, which means that we don’t have a ton of energy left to expend breaking that trendline. It will be hard to break lower, so be careful about assumptions here. Have a good weekend.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/18/11

Friday, February 18th, 2011

A winner to close out the week. No calls Sunday for the US Holiday on Monday. As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll have a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then we will look at the daily charts heading into the new week (GBPUSD is the one not to miss); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then we’ll glance at the US Dollar Index chart.

Have a great long weekend.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped second half at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/16/11

Wednesday, February 16th, 2011

A loser and a winner on a day that saw some range in the market, even if it couldn’t stick to one direction. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three. Also, Friday is options expiration, which has some impact on Forex these days (slows it down); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES but we’re also heading into a three-day weekend.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and closed final piece at D:

To view the rest of the report, take a trial of our services for $2.99 for two full weeks.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/14/11

Monday, February 14th, 2011

Happy Valentine’s Day.

A winner and a loser to start the week. Ranges weren’t great. New calls and Chat tonight. Remember that tomorrow is the last day to sign up for our new session of our FX course and mentoring package. And for those that want to take both the regular and the advanced FX courses together, we’re doing this for only $2197, which is $700 off. That deal ends Tuesday.

EURUSD:

Triggered short under S1 at A, hit first target at S2 at B, stopped second half at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long over UBreak at A, stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/11/11

Friday, February 11th, 2011

Winner that triggered early ahead of the Trade Balance number, so quarter size for me, but it worked great. See GBPUSD below.

As usual, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see GBPJPY); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then look at the US Dollar Index.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B or C depending on exactly what number you used, went lower, lowered stop in the morning, stopped out of the last piece at D for a nice winner:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/10/11

Thursday, February 10th, 2011

Couple of nice calls. See EURUSD Value Area below and GBPUSD below. New calls tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our big three each month, so half size.

EURUSD:

Value Area that we focused on triggered short at A and moved to the VAL target at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early (so half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, adjusted stop in the morning and stopped final half at D. Triggered long at E, hit first target at F unless you really tucked it up there, and should have closed final piece at G:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/7/11

Monday, February 7th, 2011

Early trigger and winner in the GBPUSD, and then things settled back to even and went nowhere.

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped second half at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/4/11

Friday, February 4th, 2011

Another winner to close out a great week. See GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special to note); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then this time, we’ll have a more in-depth discussion of the US Dollar Index.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stopped last piece at C:

Rest of report available to subscribers.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/2/11

Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011

Winner to start the month in the GBPUSD. See below. New calls tonight and Chat as we head toward NFP on Friday.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A but gave you until B to enter. Hit first target at C, stopped last piece at D:

Tradesight January 2011 Forex Results

Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011

Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report can be found here.

Number of trades: 34
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 47.0%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (Dec 26-28)
Net pips: +315

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2011

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 34.3%
Worst losing streak: 8 in a row (January 6-14)
Net pips: -40

2011 starts off with our first negative month in almost three years. On the surface, the first part of the month should have been better than the second part, but that’s not how it worked. We had a couple of unlucky stop outs that barely happened early that would have improved the month, and we managed to catch three nice moves in the last eight days to bring things back a bit (including 50-, 20-, and 70-pip winners to close out the month in the last three days). We also had a near record 8 losers in a row, which is really where the problem area was. Ranges didn’t move much, although a couple of days late in the month brought the averages back up. GBPUSD was 151 pips per day heading into January on average over the last six months and 150 after January. EURUSD was about the same.

Still, from time to time, you have to expect a series like this. What’s clear is that the month ended up being barely negative in the end despite a 2-to-1 losers-to-winners ratio. That’s critical. You system, as we teach, always needs to focus on keep losses small even when you go through a string of them so that a few winners can bring you back quickly. It’s a disappointing start to the year, and the activity in general did surprise me given that there should be a lot going on in the world, but after making 512, 218, and 308 pips respectively each of the last three months, things are still working fine. It’s important to focus on what we teach, which is that a system isn’t based on trying something for a couple of weeks. We’re trading to put together a year of results. Sometimes, that gets a little tough for newer trades to focus on, but think about the risk management numbers that we cover in the course and I think that will make more sense now.

On to February…

Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/11

Tuesday, February 1st, 2011

Another nice winner on the last day of the month as we now move to February. See the GBPUSD below. The trade from the prior day carried to a nice winner as well.

New calls tonight and chat.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

The final piece of the trade from the prior session ended up being a 160 pip winner when we exited everything at D. Meanwhile, the new call triggered early at A but gave you hours until B to enter, then hit the first target at C, and final exit after some adjusted stops in the morning was D also for about 95 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/11

Monday, January 31st, 2011

Winner to start the week in the GBPUSD, although pieces of the staggered entry went once and stopped before the rest of the trade triggered if you follow our order entry guidelines. See GBPUSD below, which I’m carrying a piece of long still into the new session.

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Our system teaches staggering orders over 3 or more prices to prevent sweeps, and this is one example of how that helped. At most, 2/3rds of your entry would have triggered at A, stopped at B. The rest triggered at C (or if you were awake, you re-enter anyway); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at D, and I have a stop on the rest under the black line at E (1.5990):

Forex Calls Recap for 1/28/11

Friday, January 28th, 2011

Closed the week out on a winning note with two half-sized stop outs overnight ahead of the GDP data, and then a full-sized 40 pip winner. Slightly green day wrapping up a slightly green week that is about to end a red January, our first net negative month in almost three years. Good example for people of why sticking with a system matters statistically.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Half size overnight ahead of GDP (which, strangely, didn’t do anything to the market anyway). Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Back to normal size after the data. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, closed out final piece around the same area two hours later:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/26/11

Wednesday, January 26th, 2011

Unexciting as expected, even after the Fed announcement, which is barely an announcement any more (no surprises). Light range on most of the pairs. We’ll see if there’s room for some trading tonight before the market gets fixed on Friday’s GDP data.

EURUSD:

Barely 80 pips of range:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B on a spike and stopped. Entered again in the morning at the trigger at C, closed at D as it had not reached first target or stop by end of day, even after the Fed:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/25/11

Tuesday, January 25th, 2011

Nice to finally get back to work with a good winner. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat, but Fed announcement tomorrow.

MB Trading made a major announcement today that I will be discussing in a Blog later this week.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece in the morning at C for about 170 pips:

Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/19/11

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

A winner and a loser on the extra replacement call. See EURUSD and GBPUSD. Ranges were a little less than the prior day (first day back from a 3-day weekend is usually great).

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A. This was an additional call since the GBPUSD call triggered early. Stopped at B:

USDJPY, nice Value Area move:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B exactly, stopped last piece even at C:

Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/18/11

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

Nice start to the week with two winners, one early and one later, on the GBPUSD. As we teach and I noted both Friday and last night, when you have a 3-day weekend, you want to get those orders in early as the banks come back and make up for lost time. See GBPUSD below.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop last night and in the morning and stopped at E. Additional call (for European session due to early trigger) triggered long at C, hit first target at D, also stopped final piece at E:

Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/12/11

Wednesday, January 12th, 2011

Early trigger on the GBPUSD that worked, not much else set up, although it triggered again overnight and worked again, better the second time. See GBPUSD below.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target at B, raised stop to entry and stopped at C. Note that the short idea was under the Pivot, which hit exactly but did not trigger at D. Triggered long in the morning at E, hit first target at F and beyond:

New calls tonight, but key data the next two days.

Tradesight Forex Calls Recap for 1/10/11

Monday, January 10th, 2011

With Japan closed, there was a fairly slow start to the week again. We have one trade still going from the calls. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat. All pairs were under average daily range.

EURUSD:

Barely 80 pips of range here:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, moved stop under the entry and holding. Hasn’t hit the first target yet:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/4/11

Tuesday, January 4th, 2011

Losers and winners with a carryover trade in the GBPUSD.

New calls tonight and Chat as ranges are doing just fine now that the new year is underway. The GBPUSD exceeded average daily range, as you can see with the dashed green and red lines on the chart.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (all pieces, but half size) and stopped out. That’s a pure sweep, which typically makes the next trigger through that Level even better. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, and on to R2 at E. Holding second half with a stop under R1:

GBPJPY:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/3/11

Monday, January 3rd, 2011

One winner to start the year in the GBPUSD, although it didn’t add up to much. See below. Ranges were decent so the Levels should be spaced fine going forward.

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and closed the final piece at the entry at C in the morning. It’s possible that one piece of your staggered entry triggered short and stopped before the rest triggered:

Tradesight December 2010 Forex Results

Monday, January 3rd, 2011

Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report can be found here.

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 70.0%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (Nov 8-9)
Net pips: +512

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for December 2010

Number of trades: 34
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 47.0%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (Dec 26-28)
Net pips: +315

An unusual month that proves that our strategy works. This was the first month in a while where we lost more trades than we won. However, three big winners that went almost 300, 200, and 150 pips to their final exits helped boost the results. Although our measurements don’t account for this, I was trading half size for much of the month due to the Holidays. Keep in mind that the total pip gain of 315 is accounted for in three trades, so if you didn’t let your winners play out, you didn’t do so great in December, which is why we teach that so hard as part of our strategy. You can actually win less than 50% of your trades and still do fine if you let that happen. The worst losing streak was only four stop outs in a row in the last week of the year, which isn’t really shocking given the Holiday environment. Things should get back to normal in January.

One final note. Average Daily Ranges from November to December stayed almost exactly the same, with the EURUSD at 152 pips still and the GBPUSD at 152, down from just 155.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/29/10

Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

We locked down the second half of the winner from the prior session in the EURUSD, and then a loser and a winner that is still on for the new session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat, but we’re winding down the year. I won’t be trading Thursday night, but we will have Levels and Calls.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s trade over the new VAL:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long on a sweep overnight at A and stopped. Triggered long in the morning at B, hit first target at C, still holding second half with a stop under 1.5440:

The rest of the pairs were unexciting as we wind down the year.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/10

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

Mixed session again and not much excitement, although some Value Areas did trigger. Ranges were light and that might about wrap it for the year.

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A and stopped. Triggered at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped:

GBPUSD:

If you properly stagger orders at the triggers, one third of the trade entered at A and stopped. We use order staggering to prevent us from getting into trades for full size that barely sweep the entry level:

EURJPY:

Note the Value Area here, which worked:

GBPJPY:

Note the Value Area here, which worked, high of the session was the Value Area High:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/16/10

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Another winner, plus we closed out the shorts from the last two days for a few hundred pips net. New calls and Chat tonight, but triple expiration tomorrow doesn’t get me excited.

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you some time to take it. Hit first target at B overnight. Raised stop in the morning and stopped final half at D. Also, the shorts from the prior session stopped at C well in the money by a few hundred pips:

Using The 24-hour VWAP Tool for Forex Trading

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

There are a variety of ways to use the 24-hour VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) as we teach it. This is a unique tool to Tradesight in the FX arena (although commonly used in stocks and futures). The importance of the VWAP level as it moves throughout the session can never be overstated.

One of the ways to use the tool is to wait for the market to start to get a move and have it bounce once or twice off of the VWAP. Once that happens, you know that the market has addressed the VWAP for the evening and is using it. This happened last night fairly early on the GBPUSD. Keep in mind that these charts are MST time zone, so two hours earlier than EST.

As you can see here, the GBPUSD got two bounces precisely off of the purple VWAP line at point A, just as it was starting to curl up:

From this point forward, each TOUCH of the VWAP can be traded by then buying if the pair trades above the high of the 5-minute bar that touched the VWAP or shorting if the pair trades below the low of the 5-minute bar that touched the VWAP. So, here’s the next touch of the VWAP an hour later, and I’ve drawn black lines at the high and low of that bar:

In this case, it turns up, and the buy point is the black line, but you can see how it played out, running up about 30 pips and stalling at the Value Area Low level:

About an hour later, we roll back to the VWAP and get another “touch” bar, and I’ve marked off the high and low again:

The next move takes out the high of that bar:

And that leads to…another run up just over the highs of the prior push and another winner:

SIX HOURS later, the GBPUSD comes back down to the VWAP and touches it. This charts shows the “touch” bar and then the next bar, which triggers to the short side by moving under the black line:

This leads to about a 25-pip move downward to the LBreak level. Note that we get a 9-bar Seeker setup on that move down against the LBreak red line, which coils the spring for the move back up:

And that move back up looks like this:

Very technical action all night on the GBPUSD despite light ranges.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/15/10

Wednesday, December 15th, 2010

Everything was in the GBPUSD, so we’ll just post that review here.

Finally, a carry over trade that kept going. The GBPUSD trade from yesterday is still going, currently almost 300 pips in the money. In addition, a new winner on the GBPUSD for 200 pips. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat as we head into triple expiration.

Triggered short at A, note that it did not stop at B if you followed the proper rules as the highest bid was exactly 20 pips above the LBreak and stop should be over that. Hit first target at C and beyond. Currently, this trade is 200 pips in the money with a stop over 1.5600, and we’re still short from the prior session almost 300 pips in the money, same stop on all of it now:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/14/10

Tuesday, December 14th, 2010

A better-than-expected night of activity ahead of the Fed announcement. Two triggers, one worked (and still working); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES one stopped for 25 pips. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three.

None of the Value Areas that were set up triggered, so this came down to just the GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, still short with a stop over the entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/13/10

Monday, December 13th, 2010

You just never know when a trade is going to trigger. I had a long call in the GBPUSD and a short call in the EURUSD going into the session. They both went in the opposite directions overnight, so it looked like there would be no triggers. Then the GBPUSD triggered and worked. See GBPUSD below, and also the USDJPY and GBPJPY Value Areas.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

Perfect Value Area move in US Session from A to B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, currently holding with a stop under R1:

GBPJPY:

Perfect Value Area move in European session from A to B:

Nice day, but tomorrow is the Fed announcement.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/08/10

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010

Two winners, although one triggered early. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and Chat.

Triggered short at A (early for half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, lowered stop and stopped last half at C, just over entry. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, raised stop and stopped at F:

Forex Calls Recap 12/06/10

Monday, December 6th, 2010

We started the week with some winners. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight. Several rate announcements this week, so check your economic calendar.

EURUSD:

We pointed out the Value Area trade and it worked perfectly from A to B for almost 150 pips:

GBPUSD:

My initial call triggered short at A, but that was a little early for some, so I added another call in the Messenger. This triggered short at B, hit first target at C overnight, and I lowered stop in the morning and stopped at D. If you took the entry at A, you did even better:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/01/10

Wednesday, December 1st, 2010

Closed out the month with another winner. I will be writing up the November summary in the next day or two and post to the site’s Blog. Will note in the Messenger when that happens, but November was a great month any way you slice it.

New calls and Chat tonight as we head into NFP on Friday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped final piece at C:

USDJPY:

Perfect Value Area move:

GBPUSD:

The call for strength in the USD was a short under Pivot, which hit (but didn’t break to trigger) at A exactly to the pip:

USDCAD:

Nice use of VWAP:

Forex Recap for 11/29/10

Monday, November 29th, 2010

EURUSD made a bigger move than the GBPUSD, but we still had a winner with nice use of the Levels and more. See GBPUSD below. Very technical use of the Levels in general.

New Levels will be out after 5 pm EST.

EURUSD with Levels, exceeded average daily range (dashed lines represent average daily range or ADR):

GBPUSD:

Very nice the way that it came up and hit the long trigger (which was over the Pivot) exactly at A without breaking through, then triggered short at B, never stopped quite at C (note the use of VWAP, but stop was over 1.5599); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target finally at D, and still holding with stop over LBreak:

USDCAD, classic Value Area move from one light blue line to the next:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/22/10

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

The streak continues, and November is now officially a great trading month for us. Two new winners, very clean, to start the short week. See GBPUSD below in particular. Most pairs exceeded average daily range, which is good.

Here’s EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long nicely at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under Pivot at C unless you were awake to adjust (I wasn’t). Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half with a stop over LBreak red line:

AUDUSD:

Check out the clean Value Area play (from top light blue line to lower one):

GBPJPY:

Value Area worked here as well:

EURJPY:

And another Value Area that worked:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/18/10

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

Back to decent ranges, and we had some great technical activity. I’ve reviewed several of the pairs below, including our call that worked in the GBPUSD. New calls tonight and Chat, but it could be a little light due to options expiration and Friday.

EURUSD:

Notice the use of the VWAP with the R1 retest around 1 am my time on the chart. There was also a Seeker 9 bar box completion right there to the downside, and the resulting bounce topped out exactly at the upward box completion:

USDJPY:

Not much here to discuss, spiked through the Value Area on US news:

GBPUSD:

Classic trade here. Our call yesterday evening was to go long over the R1 level, hit R2 as a first target. It came up perfectly and addressed the R1 level at A, triggered at B, hit first target at C, and we raised our stop and stopped out at D for a 45 pip or so total winner. Also, it later extended up to E, which was exactly the Average Daily Range move. All very technical behavior:

USDCAD:

AUDUSD:

NZDUSD:

Note the perfect use of VWAP and R2:

GBPJPY:

EURJPY:

One thing we see with the VWAP is that if you get some movement early so that the VWAP is heading up or down and then bounce off of the VWAP, if the next move takes out the high or low, you usually get a run, and you did exactly that here between midnight and 1 am:

Next week, we will have Levels and calls Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights only.

Forex Recap 11/16/10

Tuesday, November 16th, 2010

Every night, we call two primary trades. Last week, we were 5 for 6, although none of the trades really extended out to big winners as the market was narrowly-contained. We started Sunday night with a winner, but Monday night was much better. Unfortunately, the long triggered completely at A and stopped, no chance to work, so that cost 25 pips.

However, the short triggered at B, hit first target at C, and I’m currently holding the stop at D for at least an 80 pip winner, but we are more like 150 pips in the money at the moment:

Our system is designed to try to keep half of these positions on when they occur. Note that in the short-term time frame, we had a 13-bar buy signal at the S2 level at the low of the session, but that doesn’t mean we can’t head lower tonight, and we’re going for a multi-hundred-pip winner.

Forex Calls Recap for 11/10/10

Wednesday, November 10th, 2010

No complaints so far about this week. Two triggers this session, two clean winners. Be even better if one would keep going, but we’ll take it. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

We will post Levels and calls tonight, but keep in mind that France, Canada, and the US have Bank Holidays tomorrow, so there isn’t much chance of a move.

EURUSD

Triggered short under LBreak (a key Gann Level in this case) at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at C:

GBPUSD

Triggered long over UBreak (a key Gann Level) at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped at C:

For a complete look at all ten of the pairs that we cover and how the Levels played out against them, take a trial of our Forex service.

Today’s GBPUSD Calls…Why You Need Plays in Both Directions

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

One of the main things we teach at Tradesight is that it isn’t our job to guess which way the market is going to go. It’s our job to find the best technical setups either way and be prepared to take advantage. Last night’s action was particularly interesting in this regard as the GBPUSD calls were 80 pips apart (long entry for weakness in the USD versus short entry for strength in the USD). Both were using the “FX-aligned Pivot series,” or to be precise, a long over R1 and a short under S1. Ultimately, the long entry was tested to the pip but never triggered, while the short play, over 80 pips away, triggered a short time later and worked. Not only did it work, but the first target on the play was S2, which hit to the pip. So in a window of a couple of hours, the GBPUSD move from R1 to S2, about 120 pips, and address one entry without triggering while later using the other precisely.

Here is a recap from today’s report:

After inching up and stopping right at the long trigger at A, the GBPUSD dropped sharply and actually triggered the short at B, hit the first target at C exactly, and stopped the second half at D. Quite a use of the Levels:

Again, not our job to judge, just our job to spot key entries.

Also, I’d like to welcome everyone to our new website. Have a look around.

Tradesight Forex Pick Review for 10//27/10

Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

Not too many triggers off of our calls today, but here is the review from the Tradesight Forex report of the GBPUSD short, which triggered twice:

Triggered short at A, went 45 pips exactly to B and reversed. We tend to take our partial at the 45-50 pip area if there is that much room between the Levels, so you might have covered a piece depending on where you put the order. But, for counting purposes, we’ll say that it just stopped. I then said to re-enter in the morning, and it triggered at C and hit first target at D and more. Holding short with stop over LBreak at the moment:

Tradesight Forex Calls Recap from 10/25/10

Monday, October 25th, 2010

Now THAT’S what we like to see!

Including the three Value Area plays that we pointed out in the Messenger yesterday, we had five winning trades to start the week just as we went back to full size. That’s good stuff. See GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPCHF, and USDJPY below. All Value Areas triggered at the correct time for the pair.

New calls tonight and Chat. Still working on the last pieces of the new site to get everything connected.

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

Clean Value Area in the Asian session from A to B, entry was under the Pivot (dark blue line) which was just under VAH:

GBPUSD:

Main call triggered early at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped higher, but all of that was pre-European session. I therefore made additional calls and the short triggered at C, hit first target at D, lowered stop in the morning and stopped last piece at E, right over the entry:

USDCAD:

AUDUSD:

NZDUSD:

GBPJPY:

EURJPY:

Value Area worked here from A to B on the European session for about 30 pips, and look how precisely it hit the VAL:

GBPCHF:

Same here, very precise, right at the start of the European session from A to B for 50 pips:

Forex Trade Recap 10/20/2010

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

EURUSD:

Perfect Value Area in the European session triggered at A and crossed to the Value Area High at B for 120 pips:

GBPUSD:

This one is unfortunate. There was a very early short trigger at A. Then after B but before C, we stopped out of the last half of our short from the prior session for 150 pip winner. Then the new long call triggered at C, and unfortunately stopped out on the dip to D (which also triggered part of the short again). This is unfortunate because without the dip to D, the long would not have stopped, and the trade ended up working beautifully for almost 200 pips. If you were awake, you could have retaken, but I was not:

NZDUSD:

Value Area triggered at A and almost covered Value Area to B:

Tradesight Forex Calls Summary for October 19, 2010

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

Nice night. See AUDUSD, EURJPY, and GBPUSD below for winners. Only thing that didn’t work was the NZDUSD Value Area. Still short GBPUSD with at least a 125 pip winner working.

New calls tonight and Chat. Great week so far AND ranges have been average or better two days in a row. If this continues, we’ll be moving back to normal size next week finally.

24 Hour EUR/USD
24 Hour USD/JPY
24 Hour GBP/USD
Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and lowered stop several times, currently short with stop a few pips over S2 which is being used as resistance at D:

24 Hour USD/CHF
24 Hour USD/CAD
24 Hour AUD/USD
Value Area worked nicely from A to B:

24 Hour NZD/USD
This is the Value Area that didn’t work:

24 Hour GBP/JPY
24 Hour EUR/JPY
Value Area worked PERFECTLY, no risk, from A to B:

24 Hour GBP/CHF

To receive these reports daily and the trade calls that led to over 200 pips in winners tonight, take the $2.99 trial of our service (two weeks) or sign up for the Forex package today. Prepare for the launch of the new Tradesight website this week!

Tradesight September 2010 FOREX Results

Friday, October 1st, 2010

One of the things that I have resisted in the past is “track record” type of stuff, especially in the FOREX market where so much is dependent on which hours you have available to focus on the market. It’s not real fair, in my opinion, for you to try to match my trades if I’m staying up until 3 am your time and you have to go to bed at 11 pm. That’s why we prefer to teach people how to trade rather than just to have them follow the trades.

However, at some level, there has to be evidence that the calls that we make each day in the Messenger using the Levels create a working system, even if the idea is that you should tweak that system to work on your own time.

So, I spent a lot of time thinking about what would be a fair way to track the results. When you do tracking, it is important to lay out the exact methodology of how you are tracking the results so that someone can look back going through the reports and come to the same number. At first, I was considering factoring in everything about trade size and time of day, but again, that starts to factor in items that mean that some people might not be able to follow directly.

And then I came to a very basic statistical conclusion. In the end, what we just want to do here is count pips with the LEAST complex set of parameters. Conversations about trade size, etc., is all important and should be overlaid into these results. But without making everything a matter of “well I was full size on this one but you should have been half size,” we can start by just saying “What would have happened if you would have taken all of these calls, sold half at the first target, kept the stop where it should be, and adjusted based on what is in the Messenger?”

And once I stopped trying to make it complicated, well, it got uncomplicated.

Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Each month, I will copy those instructions, then give a basic breakdown, and then discuss the specifics. We also will include a “worst losing streak” number. This month, we had a period late in the month losing 5 in a row. I always focus on that because people need to understand that when figuring out their trade size. 5 losers in a row = 125 pips that you are underwater out of the gate if those were the first trades you did.

Tradesight Pip Results for September 2010

Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 57.8%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (September 27-28)
Net pips: +308

One other thing we want to consider in reviewing the calls each month is the overall environment, and we have a very easy way to consider this, which is to look at the ADR (Average Daily Range) changes during the month. Remember that the ADR takes the daily range (high minus low) and averages that over each day for the last six months or so. Whether the ADR moved up or down during the month tells us whether ranges were, on average, better than average or not.

For example, on August 1, the ADR on GBPUSD was 173 pips. By the end of August, the ADR on GBPUSD was 167. A 6 pip drop in the ADR over one month when you are averaging six months of data is pretty significant. That makes sense given that August ranges were the worst of the year, as expected.

So how did ranges fare in September? At the end of the month, average ranges were all within 3 pips of where they started the month. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD, for example, moved up 2. So basically, we can read into this that ranges were slightly better than they had been in August, but not noticeably so. This fits with the fact that I haven’t yet adjusted my size back up because we never really saw even a week where the pairs traded above ADR 3 out of 5 days. In many ways, this activity still feels like summer volume activity, maybe just a little bit better.

One of the reasons that I decided to start tracking this is that I know once we have several months of these logged, there will become some obvious statistical relevance to the data. For example, I would anticipate that in a month where ranges improved, our win/loss ratio will push up closer to 65% (might even get higher sometimes) over September’s 57% and our net gains should be higher.

Remember that trading systems aren’t based on luck, they are based on doing as close to the same thing over and over that you can based on a system that works and letting it play out. A winning system nets you money not just because of what happens in one week or one month, but what happens over an extended period of time that covers good and bad environments for the market.

And now, on to October and the last quarter of 2010.

A Night of Scalping…

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Lots of little winners on calls and scalp calls based on what I said up front were pretty limited setups for the night. See GBPUSD, USDCAD, and NZDUSD below.

I put a note in the Messenger today, but I will repeat here. As we draw closer to the launch of the Tradesight 4.0 website, you will start to see some promotional emails and newsletters go out. There are two price changes on the new site (Swing and Forex). The main Forex service is going up $20 per month to $149. This will NOT affect current subscribers at all. You will continue to get the $129 rate indefinitely, as will anyone that signs up before the new site is in place (sometime before Halloween). Also, the Total FX package (the one that includes the Seeker/Comber for advanced active traders) will also go up $20 to $219. If you are currently an FX subscriber ($129 per month) and later want to bump to the Total FX, we will still allow that upgrade to the existing $199 price (instead of the new $219). No rush. This is not about current subscribers. This is related to some new relationships and items that Tradesight has recently entered going forward. We like you guys just the way you are. ;-)

New calls and Chat tonight.

24 Hour EUR/USD

EURUSD

24 Hour USD/JPY

USDJPY

24 Hour GBP/USD

Triggered long very early at A, hit first target at B and beyond. Added additional call later, triggered short at C, hit first target at D, second half stopped:

GBPUSD

24 Hour USD/CHF

USDCHF

24 Hour USD/CAD

Perfect Value Area move from A to B:

USDCAD

24 Hour AUD/USD

AUDUSD

24 Hour NZD/USD

Scalp Idea in the Messenger early yesterday evening triggered over UBreak at A, hit R1 exactly at B. Although that’s about all you want out of a scalp, just note how well it later used R2 at C:

NZDUSD

24 Hour GBP/JPY

GBPJPY

24 Hour EUR/JPY

EURJPY

24 Hour GBP/CHF

GBPCHF

GBPUSD Winners in Both Directions

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

At Tradesight, there is a reason that we make two calls every night. It isn’t our job to guess whether the US Dollar is going to get stronger or weaker. We should have trades in place for either option. This worked to our benefit last night as we collected over 100 pips (and still going on one trade) without having to watch the market. Here’s the summary from our daily report:

A nice night based on our calls in the GBPUSD. First, it triggered short early at A, which would be for half size due to the time of day, but it came back, never stopped (stop was over black line); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES gave you another entry chance at B, and hit the first target at C. We adjusted our stop to breakeven on the second half and that stopped overnight. The long call triggered at D, hit first target at E, and we still have the second half with a stop under 1.5525, which is holding nicely in the money:

GBPUSD

A Tale of Two MoBs

Friday, May 28th, 2010

One of the tools that we follow closely is the Make or Break projection lines in e-Signal. This tool can be used to give you powerful targets on any trading symbol based on the most recent swing high and swing low. The tools plots price and time targets that are support or resistance if they are achieved.

Sometimes, you can have MoB lines in both directions that are spaced far enough apart that both can hit. Let’s take the example of the GBPUSD back in March. In this daily chart, I’ve drawn the MoB lines off of the swing high at A, which projects out as you can see, and the swing low at B:

GBPUSD MoBs in March

In this case, it is potentially possible that both lines could be hit. The ideal calculation is that the price will hit during the bar itself (not before or after); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES with a real focus between the two black lines. Since these lines are spaced out, it would be possible, though certainly not necessary, that both could hit. Remember that the point of a MoB is a “potential” target if the market heads that way, not a likelihood that it will head that way.

As we moved into April, take a look at where price went:

GBPUSD MoB April

GBPUSD smacked right into the MoB between the two black lines, as projected. And as the month continued, it used that line as specific resistance:

GBPUSD April 2

The question becomes, will that resistance point finally break, or will the trend resume? It is also important to note that the lower MoB was a thicker, making it a stronger projection. Here’s the movement in May:

GBPUSD May MoB

Right to the lower MoB…and…during the ideal time target between the black lines. Very interesting when you consider all of the news over the last month that a level projected in March could be hit so precisely.

The rest of the month through today was spent using that MoB as support:

GBPUSD May 2

So now that we have new swing highs and lows, where are the new MoB projecting going forward? This is a little more interesting of a story. Have a look:

GBPUSD MoB Projections May

This time, both of the projections play out against the same timeline. The LOWER projection is much smaller and shorter, and obviously easy to hit. The upper line in general could be hit and would represent a change in trend if it were over the longer haul. But it isn’t likely possible (although it is theoretically possible) to hit both in their ideal time projections, which makes this a battle.

We also are on the verge of a 13-bar sell signal on the US Dollar Index, which would be a powerful reversal signal if it fires in the next week or so. That would definitely increase the odds of a change in trend and point to that upper line hitting. We will continue to monitor.

You can follow us on Twitter for more details by clicking here, or take a free or full trial to our various trade calling and education services here.

Why The FX Day Starts at 5 pm EST

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

It is very important when trading Forex to understand the importance of the “start of the day” even though it is essentially a 24-hour market. In the equity and futures worlds, when you calculate key indicators such as the Pivot series and Market Profile (Value Areas); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES you use the prior day’s data from start to finish. In order to do the same in Forex, you have to establish what point is the end of the day and start of the next day so that you properly use the data from the trailing 24 hours.

Many charting platforms can be misleading because they allow people to set the timeframe axis of their chart up for their own timezone, and then they end up with calculations that are based on “midnight to midnight” in their zone. Many people also force their charts onto EST, which does not provide a good “midnight to midnight” day in Forex. If you do it that way, you’re splitting the day in half.

The proper time for end of session/start of session is global rollover, which is 5 pm EST. Asia has not yet started, Europe is asleep, and the US banking day is over. This is the point of the lowest volume. It is also the point that banks in the intermarket system shut down to “settle” their trades from the prior 23 hours and 55 minutes or so. When you realize that technical evaluations and calculations need to be based on fixed factors such as a “day” of data, it becomes very important to recognize that this specific point is the start/end of a day. It also means that Forex can really be mapped into 5 clean daily bars as it opens at 5 pm EST on Sunday and closes at the same on Friday.

Tools that you use need to be able to make this adjustment to be valid. For example, we have an Average Daily Range tool that plots a range each day that is the six month average on each of our key Forex pairs. For those of us on the West Coast of the US, we need to be able to set that tool to start at 2 pm, which is 5 pm EST. By doing so, the tools starts drawing at that point and goes for 24 hours.

The chart below shows you today’s GBPUSD with the Average Daily Range lines. The top line anchors to the high of the session since 5 pm EST (2 pm PST) because we’re in the lower half of the day’s range. The lower red line is the Average Daily Range target, which is often a key support point in the market. As you can see, during the “day” when you start this tool running at the right time, the GBPUSD moved exactly to that lower line and bounced:

GBPUSD ADR

Had you used a different start of day, one that has less technical meaning to the market, the tool wouldn’t have worked.

You can follow us on Twitter for more details by clicking here, or take a free or full trial to our various trade calling and education services here. Our next 20-hour Forex course starts in June.

Some Basic Pointers on Stops for GBPUSD

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

One of the things that we like to focus on is something called Market Direction. We utilize a tool in Forex, Stocks, and Futures that measures three levels of market direction for the day, starting with the open of the market. In Forex, the open is considered 5 pm EST, or global rollover. From that point forward, we compare where the market is compared to the opening price, the midpoint of the session so far, and a 10 EMA. We end up with three lines. If we are above two, we consider market direction to be green. If we are below two, we consider market direction to be red.

Today, we had a short entry on the GBPUSD under a key Gann level at 1.5425. This triggered heading into the European session (charts here are in Pacific Standard Time) at point A. We covered half of the trade approaching S1 at B and kept the second half on, looking to adjust our stop for later:

GBPUSD

By then monitoring the US Dollar Index with our market directional tool as described above, we can see the point in the trade where we would want to exit the final piece of the GBPUSD. Here’s the US Dollar Index on a 5-minute:

US Dollar Index

Note how it was approaching the midpoint around 7:30 am PST at A. A move under that line would flip market direction to red, thus signaling us to exit the GBPUSD trade and lock in the gain. That would have occurred around the 1.5360 on the GBPUSD chart above, which I’ve drawn with a black line.

The midpoint on the US Dollar did not break, and thus we did not stop out of the trade. This kept us in the trade for the next spike, which was a news spike based on debt downgrades. Very important to use logical stops in your trading and not just exit because you feel like things might be reversing. Take a top down approach and let the market be your guide.

You can follow us on Twitter for more details by clicking here, or take a free trial to our daily FOREX trade calling and education service here.

A Classic Value Area Example on GBP/USD

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

For today’s Blog commentary lesson/review, we wanted to show off a key play from last night’s action that works about 70-80% of the time on a proper setup, which was the Value Area play on the GBPUSD. The main component here is that the pair started above the Value Area during the European session start (this chart is PST, but you can see volume as to when the European session started). Here is the 5-minute chart. The lines that we care about for this discussion are the light blue (or cyan) Value Area High and Value Area Low:

GBPUSD Value Area

What you can see is that the pair came down to the Value Area High at A, which provides a short entry and a 70-80% chance that a move to the Value Area Low will occur. In this particular case, based on the prior day’s ranges and the Levels as provided, we crossed 30 pips to the Value Area Low at B perfectly, and there was some initial support around that area.

Value Area plays are extremely easy to spot with the right tools and provide a simple strategy for traders with a basic stop entry and t/p target. Risk level should be half of the Value Area range.

Think that one was just a coincidence? How about the same concept on the NZDUSD last night, which triggered into the Value Area at A and crossed to the VAL at B for a perfect trade:

NZDUSD Value Area

Note that the NZDUSD stopped right at the VAL at that point TO THE PIP. The market knows these numbers.

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