Posts Tagged ‘fx’

Forex Calls Recap for 5/23/13

Thursday, May 23rd, 2013

That is some slow-moving Forex stuff. See EURUSD section below for our winner on the session, but it sure took a long time to get there.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, never stopped, finally hit first target at B, holding with a stop under UPT at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/22/13

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

A wild session, mostly due to Bernanke’s testimony to Congress. This took the US Dollar down and back again for the session. See EURUSD section below for our trade triggers.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A early and stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at B, hit first target at C, and lowered stop under UPT, which stopped at D. Amazingly, the reversal caused the short to trigger late in the session at E, and I closed it out at F for 10 pips as it had come a long ways to get there. It ended up working to the first target. Could have just moved a stop over the entry level:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/21/13

Tuesday, May 21st, 2013

Not an exciting session. We stopped out of the GBPUSD from the prior session in the money, and had new triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short very early (half size) in the Asian session and A and stopped. Triggered short again in the normal session at B, never made it to the first target, and closed out just over the entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Closed the second half of the prior day’s trade for 40 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/20/13

Monday, May 20th, 2013

A winner in the GBPUSD for the session, and we’re still holding the second half. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

There was a very early trigger that might have gotten you into a piece of your half size early entry and stopped. Meanwhile, triggered long at A, hit first target hours later at B without stopping, and we’re holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Tradesight April 2013 Forex Results

Monday, May 20th, 2013

Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013

Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for April 2013

Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 51.7%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +65

Things were fairly flat for most of April, so the results weren’t quite as good as the prior two months, but the Forex market continues to perform better than the back half of 2012. Ranges have been holding steady. We came into the month with the EURUSD 6-month average daily range at 97 and the same for the GBPUSD at 95. We closed the month with those numbers at 102 and 105, respectively. 5 pips of range added to a 6-month average is actually a good improvement and makes a big difference in trading. Our final numbers fell into the ranges that we like, which is that we target 50-60 percent winning trades, and we won 51.7%. However, there were more trades than usual that we closed around the entry due to lack of movement. There were really only a couple of big winners for the month. The last week or so really knocked about 50 pips off the total for the month, but as long as ranges continue to improve, there is no reason to go light on the Forex markets. I’ve been full size since around the start of the year and continue to be, minus the usual adjustments for key data, etc. What we would really like to see now is more directional movement as the month was fairly flat for the US Dollar Index overall.

Forex Calls Recap for 5/17/13

Saturday, May 18th, 2013

Another winner to close out the week. See the GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target eventually at B, and stopped the second half at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/15/13

Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

Another winner in the EURUSD. We’re still holding the second half. Ranges were decent, and the EURUSD traded average range.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop a few pips over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/14/13

Tuesday, May 14th, 2013

Nothing triggered again overnight and then we had a small winner on the GBPUSD, which I closed out because it hadn’t gone far. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, closed at B for end of session about 15 pips in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/13/13

Monday, May 13th, 2013

Even though the triggers weren’t that far apart, neither trade call on the EURUSD triggered to start the week. The long trigger was a couple of pips from the high of the session. See EURUSD below, and we’ll try again tonight.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/10/13

Friday, May 10th, 2013

A new EURUSD trade that closed out for about a 75-pip winner, and we still had the second half of the GBPUSD from the prior session, which we closed out the final piece of for 200 pips.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Once again, nothing major to see in the daily charts.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week (which was a nice close as it moved back up after):

GBPUSD:

Came into the session still short from 1.5530, lowered stop a few times, and stopped finally at A at 1.5330 for 200 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/9/13

Thursday, May 9th, 2013

A loser and a nice winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below as the US Dollar finally moved nicely.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t quite get to first target, and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, still holding about 100 pips in the money on the second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/8/13

Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

A nice clean winner on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Ranges were better, about 120 pips on the GBPUSD and EURUSD, so we should have decent levels spacing for tonight’s new calls.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/7/13

Tuesday, May 7th, 2013

Strange night. Take a look at the down and back on the US Dollar Index below. And see the EURUSD section for the trade recap.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

So early on, part of our entry under our order staggering rules triggered at A and stopped, then the rest would have triggered at B on the news spike if you got a fill, hit first target at C, and stopped the second piece under D:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/6/13

Monday, May 6th, 2013

Almost no movement overnight in the EURUSD, and then in the US session, the short triggered and didn’t do much. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short finally at A, but didn’t hit first target or stop and closed at B for 10 pips of loss for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/3/13

Friday, May 3rd, 2013

A crazy session with the NFP data, which is why we go half size ahead of that data. Ended up with three triggers, including one on that data that might not have filled. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. For the third weekend in a row, nothing to see in the daily charts for patterns or for Seeker/Comber signals.

GBPUSD:

The long triggered early at A, didn’t stop out, triggered again at B if you missed it, went over halfway to the first target but didn’t get there (note the 9 bar setup) and then stopped on the economic data spike. The short triggered at C on the data (still half size, and frankly, if you are awake, you should cancel ahead of data), but hit first target if you got a fill. Lowered stop in the morning and stopped over the entry at E. Then, with the data behind, back to full size and triggered long at F, hit first target at G, and stopped out at the same level as G on the way back down to close the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/2/13

Thursday, May 2nd, 2013

Crazy night on the ECB rate announcement. This is why we go half size ahead of key data, which was really about the Trade Balance number but also the ECB announcement. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short on the spike at A, which stopped, and is unfortunate because it would have later triggered at B and worked, although that was another spike and who knows how the fills would have gone:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/1/13

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

One last winner to close out the month of April. See the EURUSD below. The Fed announcement didn’t do much to the pairs.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, woke up in the morning and adjusted the stop to C in the money. Note that the Fed announcement late in the session didn’t expand the range:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/30/13

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

ere’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

The long from yesterday stopped at A just around the original entry. New short triggered at B, gave you hours to setup and take, but then stopped:

GBPUSD:

Set the Pivot triggered perfectly at A, triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, raised stop and stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/29/13

Monday, April 29th, 2013

See EURUSD section below for the recap as we continue to hold a trade in the money.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Our call triggered long at A and only went about 40 pips at the high, so not quite to our first target. It used the R2 as support all night and morning, and we’re still holding with a stop under the entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/26/13

Friday, April 26th, 2013

A loser and a flat trade to close out a flat week. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B and did nothing at all, bouncing off of UBreak at C, D, and E, but I finally closed at the entry price at F for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/25/13

Thursday, April 25th, 2013

A winner in the EURUSD and that’s it. Came back to the starting point again. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, but gave you several places to take that entry through B without stopping, hit first target at C, and closed the rest in the morning under the entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/24/13

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

The EURUSD and GBPUSD spent the sessions in 50 pip ranges, which are useless. One partial swept trigger in EURUSD and that’s it. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

The EURUSD call was long over the UBreak, which is the red line. That swept by 2.3 pips at the highs, which would have put you into part of the trade based on our order staggering system, and that partial stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/23/13

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013

A winner for the session on the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you hours until B to enter, hit first target at C, and went lower, but by the time we were up, stop had to be moved over the entry and the second half stopped at D. Note the low was the LBreak at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/22/13

Monday, April 22nd, 2013

A disappointingly narrow 50 pips of range on the GBPUSD for the main session led to not much for us to start the week. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. 50 pip range for the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/19/13

Saturday, April 20th, 2013

A small winner to close out the week in the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. There really isn’t much to see there.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, just missed stopping out, hit first target at B, and closed final piece under the entry at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/18/13

Thursday, April 18th, 2013

What in the world is with the colors on the charts? There is a method to the madness, believe it or not. Let’s just focus for this report on the fact that FOREX charts at Tradesight from now on should have the green right and lower scale background. Futures will be blue and stocks will be black.

A slow session with the EURUSD in a 60 pip range. One trigger and I finally gave up and closed it out for going nowhere. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A in the morning finally (no triggers overnight in a horrible range) and never did anything, so I closed it out at the end of the chart at B, which wasn’t even our 25 pip stop. Note how it had come up earlier than that to hit the Pivot (our entry) and stalled on a 9-bar setup:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/17/13

Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

One loser and a better winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, barely stopped at B. Triggered short again at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/16/13

Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

A perfect setup led to a nice move, but after we got stopped out. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, stopped out unfortunately at B. If you were awake, you go again at C and it works fine. Sometimes, it happens:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/15/13

Monday, April 15th, 2013

A loser on the AUDUSD and a winner on the EURUSD. See those sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you a chance to take it at B if you missed it (remember, these are EST charts now, so that’s the start of the European session), hit first target nicely at C (note the Comber 5 minute buy signal) and lowered stop in the morning (after it had already been back above the Pivot and come back down) and probably stopped you at D just over the entry:

AUDUSD:

A nice Value Area setup that triggered early (half size) at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/12/13

Friday, April 12th, 2013

A winner, but one that didn’t even make it to the full first target. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

There are no patterns for breakout nor any Seeker/Comber signals looming on the daily charts. The US Dollar Index completed 9 bars down for a setup on Thursday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, didn’t get to first target, never stopped overnight, and I finally closed at B in the money a little for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/11/13

Thursday, April 11th, 2013

Two triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped overnight. Triggered long again in the morning at B, never hit first target, finally closed it out for end of session at C just around the entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/10/13

Wednesday, April 10th, 2013

Guess we had our triggers right. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Very interesting. We had a long over the UBreak/R1 level, which hit exactly but never triggered at A. We had a short under LBreak, which almost hit exactly overnight at B, then finally triggered at C. I closed it at the end of the chart as it hadn’t gone anywhere and the session was over (breakeven). Also, the US Dollar Index 5-minute chart had a Comber 13 sell signal:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/9/13

Tuesday, April 9th, 2013

We’re changing the formats of the charts for the reports officially. Starting today, all screenshots will be taken with eSignal 11, which has a slightly different look/feel to it. In addition, I’ve shifted my charts to EST for consistency in all asset classes.

We closed out the second half of a winner on the GBPUSD for the session, and then had an early trigger loser and a later trigger winner on the EURUSD. See those sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long very early (half size) at A and didn’t quite make it to the first target. Eventually stopped and was back under the trigger well ahead of the European session. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and stopped final piece under the entry at D:

GBPUSD:

The second half of the short from the prior session stopped in the money at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/8/13

Monday, April 8th, 2013

A loser and a retrigger that worked and is still going. See the GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short overnight at A and barely stopped out at B. Triggered again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over LPT:

Tradesight March 2013 Forex Results

Friday, April 5th, 2013

Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013

Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185

It isn’t quite as good as last month, but it fits our system and shows what works in a market that is still a little light in the action but moving enough that we can get things done. We had a nice range of trades, including several (not just one or two that made the whole month) that carried over session to session. We prefer to see a win ratio in the 50-60% range and we came in right down the middle of that. I would say two extra trades working beyond the first day and we’d be thrilled. Still, it is two months of back to back decent gains, which represents a huge shift over the slowness of last year at the end.

In terms of ranges, there was no improvement on the 6 month daily averages from February to March, but it didn’t get worse either. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding right around 100 pips per day on average, which is a nice bump from the 70 or so pips we were seeing late last year. No complaints here about Forex right now.

 

Forex Calls Recap for 4/5/13

Friday, April 5th, 2013

More winners on the GBPUSD to close out the week, including a carryover from the prior session. We also had a stop out on the EURUSD. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

GBPUSD:

Came into the session long from the prior day wiht a stop under 1.5200, which didn’t stop. The new long triggered at A, hit first target at B, and closed all of our GBPUSD at C for end of week, including a 150-pip winner on the final exit from the day before:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/4/13

Thursday, April 4th, 2013

Two winners for the session. See the GBPUSD below. Still holding half of the long position.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, kept going overnight. Note that the low was a 13 Comber buy signal at the S2 level at C. New call triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under R2. Note that right at the end of the chart, we got a Comber 13 sell signal, so that’s probably the high of the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/3/13

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013

Another interesting session with narrow range. The EURUSD bounced off our trigger and the GBPUSD triggered (just barely) and didn’t go anywhere. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Our short was under S1, but it didn’t get the 2-pip spread under that level to trigger:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t stop or go anywhere, finally closed just under the entry at B for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/2/13

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013

Well, sometimes nothing happens. The Levels were spaced better on the EURUSD than the GBPUSD, so I made the calls there, but the EURUSD didn’t do anything for the session and nothing triggered.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/1/13

Monday, April 1st, 2013

After looking at the opening few hours of play, it was clear that with banks closed around the world (except in the US since we did it Friday), the action was going to be limited, so I didn’t make any calls. GBPUSD and EURUSD in about a 50 pip range overnight, so that was a good thing. There was a nice breakout on EURUSD over UBreak in the US session.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Note the breakout over UBreak in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/28/13

Saturday, March 30th, 2013

A loser in the EURUSD to close out the week, but check the review of it below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips. Note that the market exactly covered the Value Area from B to C overnight. Also, if you had been awake to re-enter at D, it worked to the first target at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/27/13

Thursday, March 28th, 2013

A clean trigger that used the LBreak on a retest perfectly so that we didn’t get stopped on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, retested the LBreak exactly at B (stop was above it), and hit first target at C. Closed final piece in the money at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/26/13

Tuesday, March 26th, 2013

From a day with two winners and a carryover to a day with no triggers at all. See EURUSD for the final exit of the prior day’s trade about 55 pips in the money. About 50 pips of range today on the EURUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Our short from the prior session’s Pivot stopped out just barely in the morning over the VAL here for about 55 pips, the ONLY Level that the EURUSD even touched in a very narrow day. Strange to see:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/25/13

Monday, March 25th, 2013

A nice session to start the week with two winners on the EURUSD (and some good range). Still holding the second half of the short. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A and hit first target at B, second half stopped. Triggered short a much better setup at a better time at C, hit first target at D, lowered stop several times and holding the rest with a stop over the black line at 1.2900:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/22/13

Friday, March 22nd, 2013

A winner to close out the week. See the EURUSD section below.

We have a new format here to the report. I got rid of the trend boxes as they don’t apply to what we do anymore. I’m separating this recap section from the section below, which will give you details of the next session calls and when they will be posted.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and closed second half at C for about 50 pips for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/21/13

Friday, March 22nd, 2013

Another day of narrow ranges and the market doing very little. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/20/13

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

Make sure you look at the GBPUSD for what a wild and crazy ride Forex can be (and dangerous). Along those lines, our EURUSD trade triggered and stopped just barely before working perfectly. Sometimes it happens. See both sections below.

There was no real reaction to the Fed announcement today.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We were half size ahead of the Fed announcement as little is expected on those nights. Our long triggered at A, but stopped just barely at B (bouncing off the VWAP) before working perfectly to our first target at C. Oh well, sometimes it happens:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/19/13

Tuesday, March 19th, 2013

Technically no triggers for the session, or you might have taken one leg of the GBPUSD long. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Under our order staggering rules, if you used the bid, then no trigger at A, but if you used the ask, you might have been put into one out of three legs of the trade, which didn’t work. Overall, our short entry was the low and our long entry was the high as the market did nothing again:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/18/13

Monday, March 18th, 2013

Despite the craziness in the equity markets based on news out of Europe, there wasn’t as much action in Forex again. The EURUSD gapped out of the gate, one of the bigger gaps we have seen, and it eventually headed back toward Friday’s close, although didn’t get there. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD was stuck in a narrow 70 pip range. See both sections below.

The action was so limited that we didn’t even get a single Seeker or Comber signal on the EURUSD or the GBPUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

I was excited about the GBPUSD early as it set the UBreak exactly at A right after the open. However, it ended up triggering long at B and stopping for 25 pips. The range was only 70 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/15/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

We were only looking to go half size in primetime ahead of the CPI (and triple expiration), so there were two triggers, one early for quarter size and one for half size, both on the GBPUSD. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of the ten pairs that we cover with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into next week (no signals or chart patterns at ALL), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early (quarter size) at A and stopped. Note the Comber buy signal at the low after that, then retriggered at B, hit first target at C. Adjusted the stop in the morning under 1.5100, but should have closed at D for end of week when Europe shut down:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/14/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

One trade that came within 3 pips of the first target and a winner on the EURUSD. See that section below. Also see the GBPUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, came within 3 pips of the first target (LBreak) at B, which should have gotten you out of at least a piece of the trade under our order staggering rules. Lowered the stop in the morning and stopped at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under the black line at 1.3000:

GBPUSD:

We talked last night in the Lab about taking a scalp on the GBPUSD over the Pivot, and you have to love how it triggered and went EXACTLY to the UBreak/VAH. Quite remarkable:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/13/13

Wednesday, March 13th, 2013

A loser and a winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, closed second half at D on a stop:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/12/13

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

A winner on the EURUSD and some better action as we put the time change sync behind us. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, crossed the Value Area perfectly to B, second half stopped. Note the high is R1 at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/11/13

Monday, March 11th, 2013

As I mentioned, the first day or two after the time change can be fairly flat as the volume of the Forex pairs changes slightly since the hours aren’t synced the same. This led to 40 pips of range in the EURUSD for the session. Our GBPUSD trade triggered, see below. Hopefully, we shake this off and get back to ranges immediately. Note that my charts are now on Pacific Time.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We had a long over the Pivot, but it triggered too late in the session (just as I was taking screenshots):

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, retested the trigger perfectly at B, and then didn’t quite get to the first target. The trade took hours to play out, so in the morning, I lowered the stop just over VAL for little risk and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/8/13

Friday, March 8th, 2013

Closed out the winner from the prior session on the EURUSD, and then a new winner and loser to wrap up the week.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing new to see for setups), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and exited for end of week at D at 1.2980:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/7/13

Thursday, March 7th, 2013

We closed out the final piece of the prior day’s EURUSD trade in the money and then had another nice winner. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Stopped the final piece of the short from Wednesday at A about 20 pips in the money. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and raised the stop twice and currently holding with a stop under 1.3100:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/6/13

Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

Nothing overnight, but a clean trigger in the morning on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B (came within 4 pips, but we got a Comber buy signal, so I posted to make sure everyone took the partial there), and holding second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/5/13

Tuesday, March 5th, 2013

Our GBPUSD trigger from late yesterday hit the first target after the report was posted and was closed in today’s session about 60 pips in the money. EURUSD triggered and stopped. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

After hitting the first target yesterday, we adjusted the stop twice including once Tuesday morning under 1.5137, and that stopped in the money by almost 60 pips at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/4/13

Monday, March 4th, 2013

A loser and a trade still going on the GBPUSD to start the week. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B pretty late in the session, we’ve moved a stop under the Pivot and holding to see what happens:

Tradesight February 2013 Forex Results

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325

Any way you look at it, this was a great month. If you had four of these a year, you’d be set. The win ratio was high, and even the max losing streak of 2 in a row was something we hadn’t seen for a while. And, it didn’t just come down to one or two plays. We had several trades that finally carried over between days and went for bigger gains, which makes sense when you look at the US Dollar Index and the movement that it finally saw. This is what Forex trading should be like.

In general, ranges have expanded, and while I wouldn’t say that we are back to the GBPUSD seeing 150 pips and EURUSD seeing 130 pips that we expect on average over time, it’s still much better than the EURUSD getting 75 pips or so every night. There really haven’t been too many nights outside of Holidays where ranges were that horrible. Let us hope that this continues into March.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/1/13

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Nice session to close out the week and month. Our EURUSD short from the prior week stopped in the money. A new call on the EURUSD stopped, but the GBPUSD worked big if you got filled. See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then we will glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Our short from the prior session stopped over the Pivot at A, and the new call triggered long at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece over S3 in the morning at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/28/13

Thursday, February 28th, 2013

A loser and a winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below. One last night of trades for February.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A overnight and stopped. Triggered short at B in the morning, hit first target at C, and still holding with a stop over LPT:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/27/13

Wednesday, February 27th, 2013

A winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B (Comber 13 sell signal right there) and closed out the final piece at the entry under letter C on the chart in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/26/13

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013

Another sideways night that didn’t produce anything. Three triggers, see EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short again in the morning at B, eventually closed around the entry at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/25/13

Monday, February 25th, 2013

A winner and a loser for the session. See GBPUSD below. Gaps remain on several pairs from the open on Sunday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped second half over S1 entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/22/13

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

One trade if you were able to get any on a news spike. See GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Been a while since we’ve seen a spike like this on news that perhaps made it so that you didn’t get any or all of the pieces of your trade executed, depending on where your orders and limits were at. In terms of the raw trade, triggered long at A, hit first target at B (in the same 5 minute bar) and stop was moved under the entry. Also went again in the morning from C to D:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/21/13

Thursday, February 21st, 2013

Closed out a 125 pip winner on the EURUSD and had another winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See both sections below. Back to flat.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We were short from the 1.3355 area from the prior session. Adjusted the stop twice and stopped the final piece over the new S1 at A for about 125 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over the entry and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/20/13

Wednesday, February 20th, 2013

Two stop outs and then a big winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, never quite got to the first target, and eventually stopped overnight. Triggered short at B and stopped. Re-entered at C, hit first target at D, and kept going on the release of the Fed minutes, which tanked the EURUSD. We are still short about 80 pips in the money with a stop over the S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/19/13

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013

When you put one call on the EURUSD and one on the GBPUSD, you run the risk that neither triggers, but that was where the better layouts were. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/15/13

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013

Nothing special for the last day heading into the 3-day weekend here in the US. See EURUSD below for the triggers. The second half of the prior day’s trade stopped out well in the money.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

We will have levels posted Sunday but no calls due to the US Bank Holiday on Monday. Calls and everything else resume Monday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped. Note that we exactly hit the Pivot again at D but didn’t trigger:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/14/13

Thursday, February 14th, 2013

Another nice winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop over 1.3350 (black line):

Forex Calls Recap for 2/13/13

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013

Closed out a winner from the prior session, and then a new partial trigger with stop out on the EURUSD. We had calls in the EURUSD and GBPUSD, and the pairs went in opposite directions of our calls. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We were long from the prior session and moved stop under 1.3440 at A, then raised in the morning to B and stopped in the money. 2/3rds of the short under the Pivot triggered at C using our order staggering, and this stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/12/13

Tuesday, February 12th, 2013

More winners as we locked in a big gain on the GBPUSD from the prior session, added another GBPUSD winner in this session, and added two winners on the EURUSD for today, which we are still carrying the second half of. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half (without adjusting as it was overnight) at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half:

GBPUSD:

Came into the session short from the prior day at 1.5775 area. New trade triggered short at A, it did go 21 pips against so you might have stopped one leg of the trade if you staggered exactly over the 20 pips. Also gave you until B to take it. Hit first target at C, lowered stop on both day’s trades and stopped at 1.5625 at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/11/13

Monday, February 11th, 2013

Nice winner…over 100 pips and still going…for the session. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over VAL and still holding second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/8/13

Friday, February 8th, 2013

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s trade in the money, and then triggered short a new trade and stopped. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index, which is interesting to look at currently.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

The second half of the short from the prior session stopped in the money at A, just barely. The new short triggered at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/7/13

Thursday, February 7th, 2013

Closed out the second half of the prior day’s short at the entry, and then had a new winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Closed the second half of the trade at the entry from the prior session at A, went up and stopped just before the long trigger (over R1), then rolled hard, triggered short at B and hit first target at C, currently holding with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/6/13

Wednesday, February 6th, 2013

A winner on the EURUSD, still going, and that was it for the session. Amazing how the GBPUSD goes from over 200 pips Tuesday to just 45 on Wednesday. You can’t even see a Level line looking at the 24 hour chart on the GBPUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and holding second half with a stop over the Pivot into the new session:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/5/13

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

Almost a trifecta as we closed out a winner from the prior session on the EURUSD for over 100 pips, then had another winner on the EURUSD, but also a stop out on the GBPUSD, which triggered again later and worked perfect. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

After lowering the stop a couple of times, we stopped out the final piece of the short from the prior day at A for about 110 pips. The new call triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and I closed the final piece at the entry at D in the morning:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. If you woke up in time, the re-entry at B would have worked extremely well:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/4/13

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

A nice session to start the week with a clean winner on the EURUSD that is still going. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop twice and holding with a stop over LBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/13

Friday, February 1st, 2013

Closed a winner and ended the month of January with another nice winner (that at least pushed us green for the month). See GBPUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see NZDUSD and GBPJPY in particular), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

We stopped out of the second half of the long trade from the prior session in the money just above A, then the new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and after lowering the stop twice, I closed the final piece at C for over 100 pips for end of week and with a Comber 13 buy signal:

Tradesight January 2013 Forex Results

Friday, February 1st, 2013

Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for December 2012

Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 64%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (during the Holiday week)
Net pips: +185

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10

 

Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/13

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

We closed out the second half of a winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, then stopped out of a new GBPUSD trade, and then took it again and are carrying the second half in the money. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We stopped the second half of the prior day’s trade at A, in the money:

GBPUSD:

Set the R1 triggered perfectly at A, then triggered at B and stopped. Came down exactly to set our short trigger at C. Triggered long again in the morning at D, hit our first target at E, and holding second half with a stop under R1 (entry):

Forex Calls Recap for 1/30/13

Wednesday, January 30th, 2013

A loser on the GBPUSD and a winner on the EURUSD, which is still going. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and still holding with a stop under R2:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/29/13

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

Clean winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop up and stopped at C in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/28/13

Monday, January 28th, 2013

The GBPUSD traded average range, which was good, but the EURUSD traded only 40 pips of range for the session and didn’t trigger either of our calls.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Neither our short nor long triggered or came close in very narrow range:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/24/13

Thursday, January 24th, 2013

A loser on the EURUSD, and a winner on the GBPUSD (still going). See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped, would have worked later:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/23/13

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

What looked like a boring night with no triggers finally moved a bit but turned into nothing anyway, sweeping one piece of our short entry. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

One piece of out of three would have triggered at A if you follow our order staggering rules as it didn’t even get 3 pips beyond the S1 level. This is a good example of why we stagger trades, as a big news move like that still stalled right at the level, but you can’t expect it to stop to the pip:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/22/13

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

A disappointing session, as one trade that ultimately worked perfectly to its first target got stopped first on some news. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A on the news. Also, in the morning, at least a leg or two of the trade triggered at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, ended up stopping on the plunge down on news (which triggered the EURUSD short). Note that if you were awake, the retrigger at B worked perfectly to our target at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/17/13

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

A nice clean trigger and winner still going on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding second half currently with a stop under the R2 level:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/16/13

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

A very narrow session, and we were half size for the CPI. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped eventually. At B, it went not even 2 pips over the entry level, so at most you might have triggered a leg of your trade from an order staggering perspective:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/15/13

Tuesday, January 15th, 2013

A stop out on the GBPUSD and a EURUSD trade that came right to the stop area depending on how you staggered your exit. See both sections below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A. The stop was 20 pips plus spread, and the high at B was 22 pips (Note: Since that was LPT at 22 pips back, you can also just go above that). Either way, you may have stopped part of the trade if you used our order staggering properly, then hit first target at C, and holding whatever is left with a stop over S2:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long over the Pivot at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/14/13

Monday, January 14th, 2013

One stop out to start the week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/10/13

Saturday, January 12th, 2013

A stop out on the new GBPUSD trade, but we closed out a 270 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session. This was our first week back to full size, and it looks like a good call so far.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then take a look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We had adjusted the stop up on the existing call Thursday evening, then raised it under 1.3325 Friday morning, and I finally closed it at 1.3360 for end of week at A. You could also have held that one over, but I’m good with the close out for almost a 270 pip winner to the final exit:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/9/13

Wednesday, January 9th, 2013

Two losers for the session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped completely for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, didn’t hit the first target, but we moved the stop directly over LBreak in the morning and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/8/13

Tuesday, January 8th, 2013

A winner on the GBPUSD for the session, still holding a piece over. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

One leg of the trade triggered at A and stopped at B, the rest triggered at C and took a partial at the tri-star level at D, still holding the rest with a stop over LPT:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/7/13

Monday, January 7th, 2013

A loser to start the week on the GBPUSD, although if you follow our order staggering rules, you should have gotten a piece off in the money. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and never really came back until the middle of the European session to give you the chance to enter unless you set Limit orders. This is one of those cases where we came within 5 pips of the first target and you should have had your orders staggered and gotten at least a leg of your trade off, but we will count it as a loser for simplicity. Stopped at B:

Tradesight Forex End of 2013 Summary and Results

Friday, January 4th, 2013

Let’s start with the results for the year, and then we will layer how the market behaved on top of it. First, let’s clarify that the trading system that we teach in our courses is something that you can apply and use to develop many more trades than just the ones that we call each day. Using the system, we try to target 50-60% winning trades, and we keep our losses very tight (25 pips max) with no exceptions. The system works better when the pairs are trading good average daily ranges, and we certainly saw a drop off in ranges in 2012, especially in the second half of the year. In the prior year, 2011, we netted almost 3100 pips for the year with about a 51% win rate. 2012 was not that year, but it was still respectable, and certainly, I’d take the average of the two years each year and be happy.

In 2012, we had 337 triggers off of our main trade calls (again, if you have taken the courses, you can find much more to do, including trading some of the pairs beyond the EURUSD and GBPUSD, using Value Areas, etc.). 160 were winners. That’s at 47.5% win ratio, which is slightly below our targeted range of 50-60%, but if there was going to be a year where that happened, it would be 2012 with the bad ranges. I haven’t seen anything like that since 2007.

Separately, these results don’t account for the fact that we told our subscribers to go half size late in the summer as range dropped. This is something that we typically do around August if the summer doldrums present themselves, but we move back to full size shortly after when ranges resume. This year, since ranges didn’t resume, we are still half size at the end of the year. The net pip gains for the calls was exactly 700 pips, and again, that doesn’t account for the fact that the last four months of the year were half size. Three of those months gave us negative results (although December was a return to gains with 185 pips locked in).

If you take the 12 months in order, here were the pip gains or losses: +330, +70, +100, +125, +10, +275, +150, +100, -130, -100, -45, and +185.

Every year has one losing month with our system, often during the summer doldrums. The Tradesight Forex service launched in 2005. A couple of the years since (including 2007, which was really slow), we saw two losing months, although never back to back. We had 3 months in a row here with net losses in 2012. That’s how bad the market got.

Keep in mind, however, that even with those months, we had net gains for the year, and our system prevented major harm from being done as we keep our losses very tight. If you adjust the last four months to half size, the net gain was really +785 (might have been even bigger exception December was a decent month).

One other way to look at it, and I’m happy to see this because it fits with the “system” that we want, is that most of those 700 pips were locked in during the first six months of the year, and then the last six months, which were as narrow as I’ve seen, were basically a wash. It’s hard to have a problem with a trading system that essentially gives you no gain or loss when the worst environment for the system presents itself.

You can browse the net results of each month by clicking here and scrolling down.

So let’s put the year into perspective with some charts, but we will keep it to a few as we also have a separate end of year report for all markets.

Let’s start by taking a look at the most commonly traded pair out there, the EURUSD. I’ve drawn a flat black line on each of these charts from the start of the year so you can see if we net gained or lost:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What you’ll notice in that chart is that even though it traded 1400 pips from high to low, which sounds like a lot, most of the moves were in the boxes that I’ve drawn, where we made good money. Too much of the year was spent in flat action, and we only ended up 200 pips higher than we started the year. I should also point out the the prior year saw 2000 pips of range in the EURUSD, but we saw a full move up the 2000 pips and then back, which is a lot more movement.

Here’s the GBPUSD, which has a nice cup and handle formed for a potential breakout in 2013:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here we saw only 1000 pips of range, and it still had the same few months with the best action. Note that ALL THREE Seeker 13 signals during the year (1 buy, 2 sells) were very timely. But here, the net gain for the year was 650 pips.

Keep in mind that both the EURUSD and GBPUSD rose during the year, which is negative for the US Dollar. However, the USDJPY told the opposite tale, breaking out of a nice cup formation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So against the JPY, the US Dollar got much stronger. Unfortunately, even with that action, the daily ranges in the USDJPY have been crippling from a trading perspective since the nuclear incident in 2011.

So the net of all of that is that the US Dollar itself barely changed for the whole year of 2012. Here’s the index:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notice that we did move up mid-year, then came back a bit and went flat as the Fiscal Cliff situation approached. The election had little to no impact.

I’ve drawn three boxes, however, that show just how stuck and boring the US Dollar was for big sections of the year.

In the end, it wasn’t the type of year that we’ve seen in the past, but you can’t expect every year to be exciting. No, it doesn’t mean that the Forex market is dying. Too many people blame regulation for killing the Forex market, but my opinion is that that plays a tiny sliver of a role. We saw ranges dip in 2007 for a while, but they were ridiculously big in 2008 with the banking collapse and great in the years after (until 2012). With Japan’s currency seemingly being controlled post-nuclear incident, Europe in trouble, the world in a SPENDING recession (which aren’t helped by austerity moves), and the US creating a useless (I’ll go ahead and say it…complete stupid and unnecessary) amount of uncertainty with the Fiscal Cliff, there just wasn’t a lot of currency moving. It will move again, but our system is designed to protect you in the slow periods (obviously, if they last for years, it would be bad), which it did. Here’s to 2013.

Tradesight December 2012 Forex Results

Friday, January 4th, 2013

Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for November 2012

Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (end  of the month)
Net pips: -45

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for December 2012

Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 64%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (during the Holiday week)
Net pips: +185

Although we only count the raw numbers, we continue to be at half size now for the last four months due to the horrible Forex ranges (which may be improving finally). This was a much improved month that wiped out much of the losses of the last three months while still being half size. Our winning percentage jumped considerably, as you can see in the numbers above. 64% is well above the expectation for winning trades, and it certainly makes for better months. We saw slight improvement in ranges in all of the pairs from prior months (EURUSD back up to 100 pips for the month or so, an improvement on November’s 80 pips). With the fiscal cliff deal done (although another dumb battle looming), hopefully ranges will continue to improve, and we can get back to full size in early 2013 finally.

I have a separate end of year summary report for Forex going up behind this one, so I’ll just leave this as is.

 

Forex Calls Recap for 1/4/13

Friday, January 4th, 2013

A winner to close out the week. See the EURUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you many opportunities for entry, including in the European session, and didn’t quite stop at B, hit first target at C. Adjusted stop over entry and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/3/13

Thursday, January 3rd, 2013

Got stopped out of an early trigger on the EURUSD, and then it triggered later and worked if you were up. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped for 25 pips before the European session began. Should have re-entered the trade under our rules, but I didn’t post it to the Messenger, so we won’t count it. Triggered short at B and hit first target at C if you did:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/2/13

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

A winner in the GBPUSD to start 2013. Always nice to start the year with a winner. See that section below for the recap.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under the entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/31/12

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

A loser and a bigger winner, both on the GBPUSD, to close out the year. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

No calls or Levels tonight for the New Year’s Holiday. New calls and Chat tomorrow after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece for 50 pips at D at end of the chart. Didn’t want to hold through the Holiday:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/28/12

Friday, December 28th, 2012

Two stop outs and a winner so almost a wash to close out the week and almost the quarter and year (one more session of calls Sunday).

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

The schedule will be the same this week as last. Levels and calls Sunday, although low expectations to close out the year unless the Fiscal Cliff is resolved. No Levels or calls Monday as most Forex brokers are closed from rollover to rollover Monday to Tuesday. New Levels and calls Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday to start the year.

As we do every year, there will be a lengthy end of year report posted recapping the markets for the year (stocks, futures, and forex).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/27/12

Friday, December 28th, 2012

We closed out a 40 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, and the new trade triggered and ended up stopping just under the entry. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We came in long from the 1.3216 area from the prior session with a stop under that (which was the new Pivot). We ran up and hit the first target from that trade, and also triggered long at A the new trade over R1, then moved the stop under R1 on all of it in the morning and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/26/12

Wednesday, December 26th, 2012

Better ranges than I would have thought, and we had a stop out on the EURUSD and then it triggered again and was working as I post this. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped (note the 13 Comber sell signal right at the trigger). Triggered long at B, didn’t quite hit the first target of R2 just off the top of the screen. Still holding with a stop under the R1 entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/12

Friday, December 21st, 2012

A loser and a small winner to close out the week. See EURUSD below.

As usual with the Sunday reports, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see EURUSD and GBPUSD in particular) and then discuss the US Dollar Index.

Last reminder: Levels and Calls Sunday (not expecting much), Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Nothing Monday as the Forex markets are closed.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A just barely and stopped. Triggered short again at B and closed at end of chart for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/20/12

Thursday, December 20th, 2012

Another winner in the EURUSD, see that section below.

Tonight is likely to be slow, as we have triple expiration Friday ahead, which includes currency futures. Less than half size.

Levels will go up every day next week, and we will have calls on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but with low expectations. Tuesday is a US bank holiday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under UPT and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/19/12

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

Clean winner for the session in the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped under the R1 entry in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/18/12

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

A small winner late in the session after a flat overnight. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Finally triggered long at A, and I closed it at B 20 pips in the money because we were getting late in the session and I was heading out (usually not a reason, but good enough in this environment):

Forex Calls Recap for 12/17/12

Monday, December 17th, 2012

None of our calls triggered as the EURUSD was amazingly flat for the session. I’ll just recap the charts below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/14/12

Friday, December 14th, 2012

A stop out and then a bigger winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (look at breakouts on the EURUSD and AUDUSD) with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see there).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggerd long at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece at D for 50 pips and the end of the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/13/12

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

Closed out two winners carried from the last two days at gains, and then got stopped out of a new short in the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the winners from the prior two sessions under the Pivot for 85 and 20 pip winners to final exit. New trade triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/12/12

Wednesday, December 12th, 2012

Another winning trade on the EURUSD, plus we’re now over 100 pips in the money on the trade from the prior session. It really feels like Forex is starting to improve, even if the ranges aren’t great yet. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We came in long from the prior session with a stop under LBreak that never hit. Triggered long a new trade at A, hit first target at B, and still carrying both longs with a stop under R2:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/11/12

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

Another winner in the EURUSD, this one still going. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

You have to love trades that exactly hit the trigger before they move through. We were looking to go long over R1, and we hit it first at A and B exactly, then triggered at C, hit first target at D, and moved the stop twice. We are currently holding with a stop under R2:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/10/12

Monday, December 10th, 2012

And back to limited ranges. The EURUSD triggered long but never hit the stop or first target. I finally closed it just a little in the money for the end of the session. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, closed at end of chart for end of session just barely in the money:

Tradesight November 2012 Forex Results

Sunday, December 9th, 2012

Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for October 2012

Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 33.3%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: -100

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for November 2012

Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (end  of the month)
Net pips: -45

Last month we set a record by having two months in a row of negative returns from our Forex calls, although we lowered our size to half in late August and have maintained that size. November didn’t improve the situation as we net lost 45 pips in November, the third month in a row (and the first time in 7 years of 3 months of negative returns), but we continue to be half size (and the only time since 2007 that we have been half size this far into the post-summer months). Frankly, it’s just a mess, but it won’t stand forever, and the fact that we have been half size in the first 3-month period of net losses shows that the system works. Also, having said that, we think things will pick up soon as the ranges have dropped to intolerable levels unseen in a decade.

It should also be noted that losing only 45 pips at half size is minor, and we only had 21 trades trigger (a record low) due to Hurricane Sandy and other factors (Thanksgiving and more). In other words, our system continues to protect our subscribers from bad environments.

Forex Calls Recap for 12/7/12

Sunday, December 9th, 2012

Closed out a 120 pip winner and had another winner for the session to end a decent week. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber heading into the new week (no specific counts to look at), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We came in short the second half of the trade from the prior session from 1.3040 or so with a stop over 1.2980. Our new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and we lowered the stop over S1 in the morning and stopped both trades, with the trade from the prior session 120 pips in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/6/12

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

A nice winner on the EURUSD which is still working to the downside. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop over the black line at 1.2980:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/5/12

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

One stop out and that’s it on the EURUSD. See that section below.

GBPUSD in a 30 pip range now. Ouch.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A early, gave you until the European session to take it, then stopped for 25 pips at B. The short never triggered, although it came close:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/4/12

Tuesday, December 4th, 2012

Very interesting. After one day of good range and a nice easy winner for us, we go back to 40 pips of range on the GBPUSD and no triggers from our calls.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Trigger was long over R1, never hit:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/3/12

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

A nice start to the month as we got a clean trigger and nice move on the GBPUSD. See that section below, and we’re still long as we end the session. It even traded average range finlly.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding the second half with a stop under R2. Note that the high was the tri-star level and the Average Daily Range boundary:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/30/12

Friday, November 30th, 2012

Two more stops to close out a miserable week. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/29/12

Thursday, November 29th, 2012

Almost a dead flat trade for the session as we again had contained ranges, although the EURUSD was about 100 pips so there will be decent Levels spacing for tonight’s last day of the month. See GBPUSD below for last night’s review.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, never stopped because that would have been under the Pivot at B, didn’t quite hit the first target at C, and adjusted the stop in the morning just under the entry and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/28/12

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

Not much of a session again. A trigger on the EURUSD that took forever, and then we were able to move the stop to keep it tight after it took too long.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, started to work but took hours and never hit S2 first target. Adjusted the stop over LBreak for a much tighter stop and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/27/12

Tuesday, November 27th, 2012

Another dull session, although the EURUSD at least traded 100 pips of range, so the Levels spacing will be better there tonight. We had one very early trigger for less than half size, and that’s it. See EURUSD below. GBPUSD trade never triggered in a narrow range.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early in the Asian session at A, so would be less than half size, and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/26/12

Monday, November 26th, 2012

Interesting first day back. Our Forex triggers weren’t very far away, and yet, neither triggered as all pairs were fairly flat. EURUSD was barely 35 pips, the smallest range I can remember. Seems odd considering even Friday saw 100 pips.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/21/12

Wednesday, November 21st, 2012

Three winners for the week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target exactly at B, second half stopped over entry. Note that we set the long trigger exactly at C (stopped right at UBreak):

Forex Calls Recap for 11/20/12

Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

Another winner despite narrow range and an early move that took us under the LBreak on the EURUSD before the Asian session. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, stop would have been under the black line so it never stopped, and you had plenty of times to enter. Hit first target at B, moved stop under the entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/19/12

Monday, November 19th, 2012

Ranges improved AND we got a perfect technical setup, trigger, and move in the EURUSD. One day doesn’t prove anything, but let’s hope it is the start of something. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Hit the trigger perfectly at A to set the level, triggered long at B, hit first target perfectly at C, and still holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/16/12

Friday, November 16th, 2012

Another day with nothing. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see GBPUSD), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B, hit the tri-star level exactly at C (but not the S2 first target), and I stopped over the entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/15/12

Thursday, November 15th, 2012

A dead even trade on the EURUSD, but some interesting notes to comment about there. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Finally triggered long at A, didn’t quite make it to the first target of R2 (top of the image below), and I eventually closed at the entry at B for an even trade. Note that the high and low of the session are basically the Pressure Thresholds:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/14/12

Wednesday, November 14th, 2012

No triggers again on a dull session. I’ll just run through the charts.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 11/13/12

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012

Still no ranges, still half size, and two stops (and the EURUSD exactly set the short entry again but didn’t retrigger). See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after the Levels are posted.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Note how it hit S2 again in the morning:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/12/12

Monday, November 12th, 2012

No Forex calls for the US Veteran’s Day bank holiday (and no movement either, only 40 pips of range on the EURUSD).

Calls resume tonight.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Tradesight October 2012 Forex Results

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for September 2012

Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 28.1%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: -130

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for October 2012

Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 33.3%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: -100

A record for the Tradesight service. Two months in a row with negative returns on Forex. This has never happened before, but I also like the fact that although the raw data doesn’t reflect it, we have remained half size the last two months. This is an extraordinary time for the markets and certainly things are duller than we have ever seen them. Ranges continue to diminish across the board, but I do think that the fiscal cliff situation will be resolved and help with getting these markets back together. In the meantime, I’d rather be limited in size and trading less (only 24 triggers in October versus 36 in September) when things are light. Let’s get through the next month or two and then things should improve.

Forex Calls Recap for 11/9/12

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

A stop out and a flat trade (see EURUSD), but at least for the second time this week, we saw signs of life with volume, and that is important. Hopefully it bodes well for the coming week.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (not much to see, but look at EURJPY), and then glance at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see there).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

riggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, didn’t quite make it to the first target, and stopped over the entry at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/8/12

Thursday, November 8th, 2012

From a night with big range immediately back to a night of no range. In fact, it was so bad that nothing triggered.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/7/12

Thursday, November 8th, 2012

There we go. Signs of life. More than average range, enough to get us two triggers and two winners. Let’s hope that is representative of what is to come.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, currently holding with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/6/12

Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

A winner and a loser on the EURUSD for almost a wash again as the markets did nothing ahead of today’s election in the US.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Retriggered at B and closed at C for almost as much as we lost on the first:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/5/12

Monday, November 5th, 2012

A nothing night again. The trade triggered on the EURUSD, but 8 hours later it was holding at the entry and I closed it. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, did nothing for hours, closed at B, maybe a pip or two in the money but we just call that a wash:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/2/12

Monday, November 5th, 2012

A nice winner on the EURUSD to close out the week. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (check the GBPUSD), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece for 70 pips at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/1/12

Thursday, November 1st, 2012

It’s amazing how stable the Forex markets can be during huge natural disasters and international events. The EURUSD barely traded 60 pips again. We had one stop out. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at least part of the trade at A and the rest at B and stopped. Was close to triggering again at the end of the chart, but not the Comber 13 buy signal (lined up with S1 level):

Forex Calls Recap for 10/31/12

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Lost 10 pips on a new trade and closed out the second half of the prior day’s trade for a 50 pip gain. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

We came into the day still long from around 1.2940. That didn’t stop overnight. The new long triggered at A, ran into a wall at the UPT exactly, and then I raised the stop in the morning for all of it and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/30/12

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

A winner despite the light activity. See EURUSD below. We are still long the second half of the trade as well.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/26/12

Friday, October 26th, 2012

No calls for the night ahead of the GDP data as there were no great setups based on the Levels spacing. This ended up being a good thing as GBPUSD and EURUSD were basically stuck in 50-60 pip ranges even with the data. So, we close out the week with a rare day with no calls.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (check the GBPJPY), and then glance at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see there).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 10/25/12

Thursday, October 25th, 2012

Another day, another 80 pip range on the EURUSD that tried both directions. One stop out. See that section below.

I will be less than half size tonight ahead of the first look at GDP for Q3.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/24/12

Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

Closed out the second half of the GBPUSD short from the prior session in the money in the afternoon yesterday. One new trigger on the EURUSD triggered short and stopped, see that section below. Boring session as expected, even after the Fed.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/23/12

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

A loser and a winner (still going) on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Better ranges too, but we have a Fed announcement tomorrow.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long very early at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C at S2, still holding the second half with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/22/12

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

Another non-event session. See the EURUSD section below for the trade recaps. However, note the EURJPY and GBPJPY Value Area moves below that I pointed out in the early calls Sunday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long in the morning at C. This would have stopped under the black line D and never did, but I closed it for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/19/12

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing specific nearby on any of them), and then glance at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see there).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B and eventually closed in the money for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/18/12

Thursday, October 18th, 2012

Wow, 50 pips of range on the EURUSD. No new triggers, but we closed out our EURUSD long from two days ago finally over 100 pips in the money. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Finally stopped out of the long trade from two nights ago at A for just over 100 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/17/12

Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

An interesting session. The EURUSD, which we were long coming in, spiked up really early (before the Asian session). I did have a short entry I liked if it headed back down, but not much to the upside once it got extended, so instead of forcing a new call, I ended up just holding the piece we had and raising the stop. See that section below for how it went. Technically, I could have turned to the GBPUSD over the UBreak, and that would have worked too, but the GBPUSD has been very narrow lately. See that section below as well for a conversation.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

See that early move right after the Levels were posted? We never came back from that, and the rest of the session range was only about 45 pips, which wouldn’t have gone well for us on a new trade. Instead, we’re still long and about 150 pips in the money with a stop a few pips under the 1.3100 black line at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/16/12

Tuesday, October 16th, 2012

A clean winner in the EURUSD for the session. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding with a stop under R2 on the second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/15/12

Monday, October 15th, 2012

One very early trigger on the EURUSD stopped, and other than that, the session was spent in a narrow range. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/12/12

Monday, October 15th, 2012

Our call from the prior session continued and eventually closed 50 pips in the money. A new call triggered and stopped out at an adjusted stop for 20 pips. See EURUSD section below.

As usual with the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Came in long from 1.2910 area, stop was under that level, never stopped, new call triggered at A over R1 (right on a Comber 13 sell signal), and in the morning, I moved the stop for all of it under 1.2960 which stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/11/12

Thursday, October 11th, 2012

A winner (still going) and a loser overnight on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and holding with a stop under the entry. Note the 13 Comber sell signal right at the high of the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/10/12

Wednesday, October 10th, 2012

Wow, 70 pips of range on the EURUSD again. Barely swept one of our triggers after a long overnight session doing nothing. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Early on, it looked like we might head down and trigger the short under S1, but that didn’t happen. After a slow, meandering session overnight, we swept the long trigger over the Pivot at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/9/12

Tuesday, October 9th, 2012

Closed out a nice winner and then two stop outs for the new session. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

The second half of our short from the prior session stopped at A and that also triggered out new long very early, which eventually stopped for 25 pips. Also, triggered short at B and stopped. This retriggered and worked, but too early for us:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/8/12

Monday, October 8th, 2012

A winner to start the week on a Holiday session. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD;

Triggered short at A under S1, hit S2 first target at B, holding second half with a stop over S1:

Tradesight September 2012 Forex Results

Friday, October 5th, 2012

Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling dow

Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012

Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: +100

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Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for September 2012

Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 28.1%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: -130

There is a reason that we moved to half size in August as ranges died down for the key summer vacation month and remained half size through September. The ranges just haven’t come back yet, although September started with a nice week (after Labor Day) with two big 100 pip winners. But, the lack of range and action led to a lot of stop outs. Typically, our win ratio is between 50-60%. September fell off a cliff, with only 9 winners out of 32 trades, or 28.1% wins. That only happens each year when ranges get this bad.

This gives us our first negative month of the year, with 130 pips of net losses. Our pip totals don’t reflect the fact that our trading was half size. We just count net pips. We will continue to be half size until we see better ranges for a few days at some point here.

The six month average daily range on the GBPUSD dropped under 100 pips for the first time I can recall in seven years of trading this stuff. There really isn’t much to say. The market needs to start moving, and it will at some point.

Forex Calls Recap for 10/5/12

Friday, October 5th, 2012

Closed out a nice winner from the prior session on the EURUSD and then had another winner to end the week. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see GBPUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Unfortunately, the second half of our trade from the prior session stopped just barely at A under LBreak before the EURUSD turned back up. It then triggered our new long at B, hit first target at C, and closed the final piece under the entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/4/12

Thursday, October 4th, 2012

A nice winner on the EURUSD overnight, and we still are carrying the second half of the trade. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding the second half almost 100 pips in the money with a stop under 1.3000 at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/3/12

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

Ranges so bad, nothing triggered. See EURUSD below to see how bad it was.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 10/2/12

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012

Our EURUSD trade from the prior session stopped 45 pips in the money, but we had a loser in the GBPUSD in this session. See both sections below. Ranges remain light.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Raised stop twice and stopped final piece of prior day’s trade at A:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long again at B, raised stop when it hadn’t gone anywhere by late in the session, and stopped at C for 10 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/1/12

Monday, October 1st, 2012

A very early trigger on the EURUSD that stopped, and then a more normal trigger that worked and we are holding long. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short very early at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, note how it hit the new UPT at C and stopped there first, then first target at D, and we are holding the second half with a stop under UBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/12

Friday, September 28th, 2012

Another sweep session as expected to almost wrap up September (Sunday’s calls will count for September) and what will probably be our one negative month of the year. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (nothing specific to note this week), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Crossed the Value Area perfectly. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/27/12

Thursday, September 27th, 2012

Surprise! Today, after months of testing and weeks of work, we rolled out our revised FX Levels service. This includes additional levels on the market, including the Pressure Thresholds that have worked so well in futures. We now have:

Break Levels
Value Area
Pressure Thresholds
4 Tri-Star Levels
Expanded Pivot Series (R4 through S4)

The existing eSignal tool will not work going forward. The newest version of the tool can be downloaded from the website by going to the About Us menu and eSignal tools when you are NOT logged in. The fastest thing to do is to close eSignal, uninstall the Tradesight Installer Suite from Control Panel, and then install the new one from the website. All of your studies should still work, except you’ll have to remove the FX Levels 1.3 from each chart and add the FX Levels 1.4 tool.

As you can see in the charts below, the Value Areas are now shaded, which is a very useful visual indicator as many people have commented about the Futures tool (which has had this since March). In addition, you can turn on/off each level if you don’t want some.

And finally, there is now backtesting built into the tool. If you right click on the chart and go into Edit Studies for the tool, you can put in a date in the first field and hit OK. The Levels will be redrawn on your chart for that date, so you can see how they lined up that day (or use Bar Replay mode to make it play out live). Any date prior to today’s will only show the starred levels, Breaks, and Value Areas.

We will be adding a segment to the Forex course soon regarding the Pressure Thresholds and their use.

Meanwhile, another day of no action and stop outs in the EURUSD. See that section below as we head into Friday and wind up Q3.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped overnight (note the use of the UPT). Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/26/12

Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

Initially, I posted no calls for the session as all of the Levels were too bunched together from the poor ranges. I ended up putting up a EURUSD call after it set the S1 perfectly, and after 12 hours with it, it went nowhere. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Took the short under S1 at A after it hit the level just before that. Never hit stop or first target, finally closed at B a few pips in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/25/12

Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

Another dull session. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A very early (so less than half size) and stopped at B. Triggered long at C, held up a long time, finally rolled and we closed it at D before it even hit the stop for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/24/12

Monday, September 24th, 2012

Stopped out of our trade and then it worked after overnight. See EURUSD below. Ranges were still bad.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A, gave you another chance to enter at B, but then stopped at C right at the start of the European session, which was a bummer as it then proceeded down to our S2 target at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/21/12

Friday, September 21st, 2012

There’s an example of being right on track with a call and just barely getting stopped before it works great. But, there is a reason we use stops, so, it happens. See EURUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We came into the session short and in the money and that stopped over the UBreak. Then we triggered long at A, stopped by just a couple of pips at B on a little spike, right before the EURUSD turned up and ran exactly to our first target R1 at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/20/12

Thursday, September 20th, 2012

A winner in the EURUSD on the short side for us, see that section below. Ranges continue to be small.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, currently holding the second half of the trade with a stop over the black line:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/19/2012

Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

Another boring session that went nowhere, even if ranges were a little better. I’ll continue to stick with half size.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long at C and closed for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/18/12

Tuesday, September 18th, 2012

I keep getting emails from subscribers asking when we are going to go back to full size. The answer is the same every year. August is typically a slow month, and then the big traders tend to get back to work at some point after Labor Day. Just because we get a one-day spike due to a Fed announcement doesn’t mean that ranges are back to normal. I want to see 2-3 days of good ranges that aren’t just because of a news spike. Until then…have a look at the GBPUSD this session. Basically, 40 pips of range. Who wants to be trading heavy in that? See that section below for today’s trigger.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A, but gave you chances all session at B, C, D and more to enter, and finally stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/17/12

Monday, September 17th, 2012

Always no range to speak of, especially during the European session. A few triggers on the EURUSD, and neither worked.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Part of the trade triggered long early at A and eventually stopped. Short triggered at B and stopped. In the morning, we finally made a stab at a move, triggering long at C and stopping:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/14/12

Monday, September 17th, 2012

A nice winner (125 pips to final exit) in the EURUSD to close out the week. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday (remember the EURUSD 1.2824 breakout posted last weekend?), then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and closed the final piece at C for 125 pips after updating the stop a few times:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/13/12

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Flat overnight as expected ahead of the Fed announcement, and then some crazy spikes on the announcement before the market settled on moving against the US Dollar. The announcement was after we cancel trades for a session.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, finally stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/11/12

Tuesday, September 11th, 2012

One trade just barely stopped, see the EURUSD below. The move was really after Trade Balance. We remain half size all week as we have two days of Fed meeting and then the CPI ahead.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B just barely. Triggered long again at C and this would have worked great, but for our rules of counting, it was a little early (by about 15 minutes):

Tradesight August 2012 Forex Results

Monday, September 10th, 2012

Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for July 2012

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 46.4%
Worst losing streak: 7 in a row (Week of Fourth of July)
Net pips: +150 (+310 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012

Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle  of the month)
Net pips: +100

August on average is one of the slowest months of the year, as many of the big players out of Europe are on summer break. This was no exception, unfortunately, and we dropped to half size once the ranges contracted, as we do most Augusts. It was barely worth trying for much of the month, and we even had several sessions where none of our trades triggered due to the flat market. In fact, only 23 trades triggered during the month, the lowest number of the year.

The win ratio was still on target at just over 50%, but there weren’t many trades that continued further than the first target.

With the poor action, the 6-month average daily ranges of the major pairs dropped further, unfortunately. The EURUSD average lost 3 pips from 111 to 108 during the month. GBPUSD also lost a few. Even the USDJPY, which you wouldn’t think could drop further, lost 5 pips to 56 as an average.

There really isn’t much else to say. Four out of the last five Augusts have been bad (and one was spectacular). You just build that into your expectations for the year. The good news is that September has already started out much better just in the first week, and although we won’t go back to normal size until the ranges show more than a day or two of improvement, things usually improve fairly quickly.

Forex Calls Recap for 9/7/12

Friday, September 7th, 2012

A great two days for Forex trading, a great 2 days for the stock market as volume finally came back, but a poor day for the US Dollar itself.

We carried forward the second half of the trade from the prior day, which never stopped and continued with the new trade. The trade from the prior session closed out 190 pips in the money, and the trade from today worked nicely for about 150 pips. See EURUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss the US Dollar Index.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

We came into the session still long the second half of the prior day’s trade with a stop under LBreak, which never hit overnight. New trade call triggered long at A, hit first target at B, adjusted stop in the morning, and closed out both trades at C for end of week (+150 pips and +190 pips, respectively, to final exits):

Forex Calls Recap for 9/6/12

Thursday, September 6th, 2012

Strange night with two winners and a loser. See the EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you hours to enter. Hit first target at B, second half stopped. Triggered short at C and stopped. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, holding second half with a stop under UBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/5/12

Wednesday, September 5th, 2012

Another half-sized night without anything special. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B, stopped a piece of the trade at C, retriggered the rest and eventually closed at D for 12 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/4/12

Tuesday, September 4th, 2012

A non-event to start the month. See EURUSD below. We remain half size until we start to see ranges expand, and even with that, only part of the trade triggered.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

After a night spent mostly between our two triggers, the EURUSD swept the S2 level at 1.2559. Our staggered entries would be 1.2557, 1.2556, and 1.2555, the last of which never hit on the charts, so only 2/3rds of the trade (which was only half size anyway) triggered. It never stopped either, and I eventually closed at the end of the chart:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/31/12

Friday, August 31st, 2012

A nice winner to close out the week and month. See GBPUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action for Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing interesting), and then look at the US Dollar Index (something interesting there).

FX Levels will be posted for Sunday but no calls will be made due to the US Holiday. We resume Monday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s play in the money. Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/30/12

Thursday, August 30th, 2012

A winner and a loser (the winner is still going) for the session.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A or the next move, hit first target at B, holding with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/29/12

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

Another dull session. See EURUSD for trigger results below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

You know you have the right triggers when the market basically addresses both of them overnight. At A on the chart, we went 2 pips under the trigger line, which would have been your first of three entries using our order staggering method, and that was it. That stopped (so a third of half size). Meanwhile, in the morning we triggered short at B, never hit the target or stop, and I closed at C as the 13 Seeker buy signal was forming:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/28/12

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

A tiny winner on the EURUSD as ranges at least expanded out. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

After a move down that didn’t reach our short trigger, finally triggered long at A, but didn’t hit stop or first target and I finally closed for a 10 pip gain at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/27/12

Monday, August 27th, 2012

For the third time in six trading sessions, neither of our trades triggered, which is fine when the EURUSD is stuck in a 40 pip range for 24 hours. This was probably made worse by the UK Holiday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 8/24/12

Sunday, August 26th, 2012

A winning trade to close out a light week. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (no patterns, but see GBPUSD), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Next week should be light as we wrap up August and head into Labor Day weekend. I will be half size all week.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over entry and stopped at C somewhere on a news spike:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/23/12

Sunday, August 26th, 2012

Well, that’s a record. Two days in one week without one of our trades triggering as the market is so flat. Better that than triggering and stopping out.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

Forex Calls Recap for 8/22/12

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

Stopped out of the prior day’s trade in the money on the EURUSD, and then we had two partial sweeps of our entries, which I don’t know if I’ve ever seen before, but it let’s you know that you had the right entries. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s long under LBreak at A for 80 pips. Under our order staggering rules, triggered short for part but not all of the trade at B and stopped, and the same thing happened on the long side, triggered long and the same thing happened on the long side, triggered at C for part but not all and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/21/12

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

Nice winner on the EURUSD for the session after a no-trade day the prior session. Still holding part of the long. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, adjusted stop twice in the morning and still holding with a stop under the tri-star at C up 100 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/20/12

Monday, August 20th, 2012

60 pips of range on the EURUSD, so neither of our trade calls triggered for the entire session. We will definitely be sticking with half size through the end of August with ranges like this, as we do most Augusts.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

No trades triggered so no individual pairs to show.

Forex Calls Recap for 8/16/12

Thursday, August 16th, 2012

One early half-sized trigger stopped and then we triggered EURUSD overnight and it worked great. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long very early at A (half size if you were around to grab it) and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B overnight, hit first target at C, and holding now with a stop under the black line at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/15/12

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

Another slow session (GBPUSD 40 pips!), and we had to put the calls on the EURUSD beyond S2 on the short side because the Levels were so tightly bunched from the night before. See that section below. We were also half size ahead of CPI, which did nothing.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, didn’t stop or hit first target, closed at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/14/12

Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

A winner and a loser on the EURUSD for the session. Ended up at the same price level again, and the GBPUSD barely traded 40 pips overnight (yikes!).

See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you until B to take it, hit first target at C exactly, raised stop in the morning and stopped after D (actually the second move under UBreak there). Triggered short at E and stopped:

 

Forex Calls Recap for 8/13/12

Monday, August 13th, 2012

Boring session again with no movement during European or US hours. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A and gave you all the way to B to take, then stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, never stopped or hit first target, finally closed at B for end of session down 15 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/10/12

Friday, August 10th, 2012

Another slow session as the ranges were poor. One trigger and stop out on the EURUSD, see that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts coming into the new week (see NZDUSD for the only one that matters), and then glance at the US Dollar Index (not much to see here currently).

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/9/12

Thursday, August 9th, 2012

A winner and a loser for the session with the short GBPUSD still in play as I right this. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hasn’t hit first target yet but we lowered stop over the tri-star level at 1.5625 (B) in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/8/12

Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

A much slower week than last week with just two stop outs and one night without a trigger. This time, the GBPUSD short stopped, see that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, did not quite make it to the first target, and stopped for 25 pips at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/7/12

Tuesday, August 7th, 2012

An unusual session in that neither trade triggered on the EURUSD as the range was only 60 pips.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/6/12

Monday, August 6th, 2012

No range and a single stop out to start the week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Tradesight July 2012 Forex Results

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

Before we get to July’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for June 2012

Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 60.8%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26)
Net pips: +275

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for July 2012

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 46.4%
Worst losing streak: 7 in a row (Week of Fourth of July)
Net pips: +150 (+310 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)

July was an unusual month for trading in general. Volume and range continue to be less than average, but there was something else here. The Fourth of July Holiday was on a Wednesday to start the month. That pretty much ruins a week, especially during the summer, and makes it like the last week of the year between Christmas and New Year’s Day. No one trades when a Holiday is Wednesday in the summer, and we warned people as such to either skip the week or go to small size. However, these results are not “sized,” they are just raw data numbers based on the calls, and we make calls each day. We had seven losers and no winners during the first week of July, adding up to a 160 pip loss, so those that heeded our warnings and decided not to trade did much better.

Still, the rest of the month improved a lot and we had solid trading after that week. Without the Fourth of July week, we only had 21 trades trigger and 13 were winners (62%). We made 310 pips. With that first week, the net gains for the month were only 150 pip or so. That’s the difference between professionals and novices…knowing when to size your trades down…or not take them at all.

No complaints overall as the Forex markets remain stagnant with the concerns out of Europe and other issues around the globe.

After a slight rebound in average daily ranges last month, the six month average ranges remained pretty stable, mostly within a pip or two between the start and end of July. That’s actually a positive again, as the first week was very light and the rest of the month was better. August is typically the slowest month of the year in Forex, but then things tend to pick up in September, so we shall see.

Forex Calls Recap for 8/3/12

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

A nice way to end the week with a huge winner in the EURUSD. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts coming into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (subscribers only), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and kept going nicely. I closed the final piece at C for 190 pips for end of the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/2/12

Thursday, August 2nd, 2012

A strange session with the rate announcements out of Europe. We had a winner in the EURUSD, but it went much further and came back. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but half size ahead of NFP in the morning.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, spiked to R2 and more after the announcement, then came all the way back and closed out under entry at C in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 8/1/12

Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

As expected, a dead session ahead of the Fed. This is the one session where we trade later in the morning after the announcement if the trades haven’t triggered. We stopped out in the money on the prior day’s EURUSD trade. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

Back to normal size tonight for a session (before NFP Friday), but we have rate announcements out of UK and ECB, so it is questionable what we will get.

New calls and Chat this evening a little later.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s trade at D under Pivot for a gain. No triggers and flat action overnight, then we triggered short at A a bit after the Fed, closed half at B for 25 pips, and have a stop over the entry at C on the rest:

 

Forex Calls Recap for 7/31/12

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

An interesting session. We had a short idea in the GBPUSD that worked and a long idea in the EURUSD that worked. See both below, and we are still long the EURUSD.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but we remain half size ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you hour to take at that price, never went 20 pips plus spread against, hit first target at B, and holding the second half with a stop under the red line at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B (and bottomed out exactly on a Seeker 13 buy signal), and closed the final piece over the entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/30/12

Monday, July 30th, 2012

A non-event session as the EURUSD short triggered and didn’t even get to the first target or the stop. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but we start a 2-day Fed meeting on Tuesday.

EURUSD:

Triggered short under S1 at A and didn’t do anything. Finally gave up and closed it at the end of the chart:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/27/12

Friday, July 27th, 2012

Closed out a 170 pip winner on the GBPUSD from the prior session, but had a trigger and stop out on the EURUSD overnight. See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see AUDUSD and NZDUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

Calls resume Sunday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Closed second half of the trade from the prior day at A for 170 pips or so:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/26/12

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

A nice winner in the GBPUSD, and we’re still carrying the second half of the trade. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, kept going, and holding with a stop under line at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/25/12

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

We had a winner in the EURUSD, and stopped out of the second half of the trade well in the money. All flat again. We’re getting closer to that key look at Q2 GDP on Friday, which the market is going to care about a lot.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and stopped second half under R1 at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/24/12

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

One stop out on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Fairly slow session with light range.

New calls and Chat tonight. Slow week so far.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Usually, when the market addresses both our short and long entries, it breaks one or the other and we end up with a winner. You know you have the right triggers when the market comes up and tests them. In this case, the GBPUSD tested our long entry at A, then went down to test our short entry (under 1.5485) at B exactly. Unfortunately, in this case, we then triggered long at C and stopped for 25 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/23/12

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

The market gapped and I didn’t like the setups that I was seeing, particularly back for weakness in the USD. Fortunately, that wasn’t the direction that we headed anyway. I put in a short idea which triggered and stopped, see EURUSD below with some notes.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. Back to normal after the gap hopefully.

EURUSD:

Set the S1 level exactly at A, triggered short at B, stopped at C. Note that the high of the session was the Seeker 13 sell signal at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/20/12

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

One final winner to close out the week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week (see AUSDUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Calls resume Sunday evening, and I will be back in Phoenix.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week and almost 70 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/19/12

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

EURUSD:

Triggered long over R1 at A and stopped. One piece of the short triggered at V and stopped, but the rest triggered at C, hit first target at D, and stop was moved over entry and stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/18/12

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

An early half-size trigger that stopped and a normal session trigger that hit the first target, both on the EURUSD. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long very early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, final piece stopped over the entry at D. Remember that when the distance between the first target and entry level is greater than 50 pips, we’re only looking to stagger our exits in the 45-50 pip range per the course:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/17/12

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

Nice session. Stopped out of the second half of the GBPUSD long from the prior session in the money and had a winner in the EURUSD. See both sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market direction lines:

EURUSD:

We were half size overnight ahead of CPI, but nothing triggered, and then in the morning after the CPI data (so full size), EURUSD triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped second half over entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Stopped second half of long trade from the prior session under LBreak at A for 40 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/16/12

Monday, July 16th, 2012

One loser and one winner in the GBPUSD to start the week, and we’re still carrying the second half of the long idea. See that section below.

New calls and Chat this afternoon, although they might be closer to 8 pm EST.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (just barely, and note the Seeker 13 buy signal right there) and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop under 1.5660 (the black line):

Forex Calls Recap for 7/13/12

Saturday, July 14th, 2012

Nice GBPUSD trigger, perfect setup and test of the level and then triggered and worked for 100 pips to the final exit. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (note the GBPUSD comments there below), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the index with our market directional lines:

I will be on the road through next week. Calls and reports will still all go up, but could be a little later on any given day. I may not do Opening Comments each day from the road, depending on my schedule and location.

Levels will be posted on time each day by Mark. Have a great week.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A perfectly, hit first target at B (note the Seeker 13 sell signal at that point), closed final piece at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 07/12/12

Thursday, July 12th, 2012

Clean trigger and winner in the GBPUSD, see that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight to close out the week. I will be on the road all of next week. Levels will go up as usual, reports might be a little late from time to time, and the calls could be late certain days, but I will notify in advance through the Messenger. There might be a couple of nights without opening comments as well.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over S2 and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/11/12

Wednesday, July 11th, 2012

A waste of time session with just a 5-pip plus spreads loser in the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. Back to normal size, but this has not been exciting so far.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, did not stop or hit first target overnight, raised stop to 5 pips under UBreak and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/10/12

Tuesday, July 10th, 2012

A loser and a winner (not quite a wash) on the EURUSD. See that section below. Trade Balance tomorrow morning, so half-size tonight ahead of that.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

tell me how to import data and install.  I will probably need new templates

Forex Calls Recap for 7/9/12

Monday, July 9th, 2012

Partial entry stopped on EURUSD to start the week in a session where the range was only 60 pips on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

The EURUSD didn’t even go 2 pips past the VAL entry level at A and B, so only a piece or two of your trade should have triggered if you follow proper order staggering rules from our system. It did triggered long completely at C and closed at D at even:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/6/12

Friday, July 6th, 2012

Wrapped up what we knew would be a bad week coming in with a half-sized trade in the EURUSD ahead of NFP data. See that section below. Should be back to normal next week and I will be normal size in my trading again.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing to see), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New Levels and Calls Sunday afternoon.

EURUSD:

The Break levels were only 22 pips apart, but the EURUSD sat between them for most of the European session, although it did barely trigger the short at A, which stopped at B. Trade ended up working nice later:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/5/12

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

We were half size for the Holiday week, but would have been half size anyway with the ECB and BoE rate announcements, and the BoE one stopped us out of the trade (which is why we go half size for those). See GBPUSD below.

One more day and then back to a better environment.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, still half size, also have NFP/Unemployment in the morning.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, just barely stopped at B on the rate announcement news, which was unfortunate because then it worked after that:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/3/12

Wednesday, July 4th, 2012

Pretty much as expected. No range, so we stay half sized, two stop outs on EURUSD:

Levels will be posted tonight, but no calls for US Holiday. Calls resume tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, stopped at B. Triggered short at C, stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 7/2/12

Monday, July 2nd, 2012

And this is why we go half-size for a week with a strange Holiday layout like this one. The market ignored virtually all technicals for the session. See EURUSD below for the trade that triggered.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you all the way to B to enter, stopped at C:

Tradesight June 2012 Forex Results

Friday, June 29th, 2012

Finally, a much better month in Forex.

Before we get to June’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for May 2012

Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 36.1%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (May 20-25)
Net pips: +10

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for June 2012

Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 60.8%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26)
Net pips: +275

We finished the May Results report with the line “The turning point lies ahead.” Turns out, it was June 1.

For the first time in a while, Forex ranges were stable/improved for the month. Not a ton, but it does suggest a turn. We ended up with a few days where no trades triggered because the ranges were still small, so we only had 23 trades for the month, which is unusual. However, it was a really clean month. We had 3 losers in one day, and other than that, we only had 6 losing trades for the month, and many of the winners carried over a couple of days and led to bigger gains, which is what we like to see. Our system is built around small losses and letting winners play out when they do, and this definitely shows the value of that approach. Summer can be a slow time for Forex, especially June and July, but after months of a stagnant market waiting to see how Europe would dig out of its problems, the fact that the picture might be clearing up is positive for Forex trading.

The ranges didn’t expand enough to add more than a couple of pips to the 6-month average daily ranges on some of the pairs, so we can’t get too excited yet, but it does feel like maybe May was the turning point and end of the doldrums for now. If July stays good, then the outlook for the rest of the year is much improved from the first half.

On to July…

Forex Calls Recap for 6/29/12

Friday, June 29th, 2012

A nice 200-pip winner in the EURUSD to close out the week, month, and quarter. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week (everything is mid-range with no Seeker/Comber setups or breakout points), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

I WILL BE HALF SIZE ALL WEEK due to the Holidays. We have Levels all five days but no calls Tuesday night ahead of the Holiday Wednesday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for 200 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/28/12

Thursday, June 28th, 2012

A small winner in the EURUSD (hit first target and second half stopped at original stop overnight). See that section below. Market was dead flat after that, so nothing else to do.

New calls and Chat tonight as we close out Q2 and head into the Holiday week. I WILL BE TRADING HALF SIZE FOR THE FOUR TRADING DAYS NEXT WEEK.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and basically stopped the second half at C (in theory, if you staggered your orders enough, it might not have, but we’ll call it stopped):

Forex Calls Recap for 6/27/12

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

A clean winner for the session in the EURUSD on the short size, and we’re still holding the second half of that play as I write this. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short under LBreak at A, hit first target exactly at B, stop is currently over LBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/26/12

Tuesday, June 26th, 2012

Not a great session once again, just choppy back and forth action in a narrow range. See EURUSD for trade call summaries.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight as we head toward the end of the quarter and next week’s messy Holiday schedule.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you hours to enter, stopped overnight at B. Triggered short at C, stopped at D. Triggered short at E and stopped again. First time in a while with multiple stop outs in a session:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/25/12

Monday, June 25th, 2012

A winner to start the week on the EURUSD, see that section below. We’re currently still short, although the stop is near and could stop us out before new calls are made later today.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, currently holding with stop over 1.2510 (black line):

 

Forex Calls Recap for 6/22/12

Friday, June 22nd, 2012

Almost no range, no action, and no attention paid to technical levels on a drifting session. This one was of the narrowest and yet most meandering session I can recall in Forex. Watching it was painful. AUDUSD short triggered and stopped. EURUSD stopped second half of the prior day’s trade in the morning for 75 pips or so.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber tools separately heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

New calls resume Sunday evening. Remember that the FOLLOWING week is awkward because of the Fourth of July Holiday here in the US on Wednesday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s short at A for 75 pips:

AUDUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

The rest of the report, including the preview for next week, is available for subscribers and trial users only.

Forex Calls Recap for 6/21/12

Thursday, June 21st, 2012

One clean full size trigger and a nice winner out of it in the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD;

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/20/12

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

The session was a little unique in that the Forex pairs usually either do nothing after a Fed announcement or pick one direction and stick with it. In this case, the initial move was strong in favor of the Dollar, then we reversed even stronger, and then came back to par. As usual, we’re half size on triggers ahead of the Fed and full size after (give it about 10 minutes to settle). We had three triggers, two half size losers and a full size winner, all in the EURUSD. We also stopped the second half of the prior day’s GBPUSD long in the money.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, back to normal size. All flat at the moment.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight for half size and eventually stopped at B ahead of the Fed announcement. Triggered short on the announcement at C and stopped. With that behind us, the full size trigger was the long at D, hit first target of 50 pips at E and stopped the second half under the entry:

GBPUSD:

Stopped the second half of the prior day’s long under LBreak at A in the money:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/19/12

Tuesday, June 19th, 2012

A loser and a winner on the GBPUSD, see that section below, and we are still long the second half of the trade.

New calls and Chat tonight, but we will be half size ahead of the Fed announcement.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you all the way until B to enter, then stopped. Triggered long at C in the morning, hit first target at D, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/18/12

Monday, June 18th, 2012

Winner to start the week in the GBPUSD after a gap in the markets from the vote in Greece. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over entry level and just barely stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/15/12

Friday, June 15th, 2012

Third day with no trades as the EURUSD amazingly (despite the looming vote in Greece) sat still. Definitely flat for the vote.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index. There’s nothing in the daily charts new to see, so I have no comments in that section this weekend.

New calls Sunday, but expect a gap, so we might hold off the calls until later than usual.

EURUSD:

Neither trade call triggered.

Forex Calls Recap for 6/14/12

Thursday, June 14th, 2012

A new record: Two days in a row without one of our trades triggering, although yesterday was because the EURUSD and GBPUSD went in separate directions. Today was about narrow ranges. You do, however, know that you have the right triggers when they are basically the high and low of the session. See EURUSD below, which is just as important as any day that we have trades trigger.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but triple expiration tends to slow all markets.

EURUSD:

We were looking to go long over R1 or short under LBreak. Looks like we had the right points as the market stuck exactly between them:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/13/12

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

No new triggers as we had a EURUSD short idea and a GBPUSD long idea and both pairs went the other way. We did stop out of the second half of our existing EURUSD short in the money. See that section below.

CPI tomorrow means half size and low expectations.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the second half of the short from two days ago at A over UBreak for about 45 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/12/12

Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

One loser but we continue to carry the EURUSD short from the prior session in the money. See EURUSD section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

We came into the session still short half of the trade from the prior day and moved our stop over the new Pivot. New trade separately triggered long at A, gave you all the way until B to enter without stopping, didn’t stop at C because it didn’t go 20 pips plus spread under the entry line, and just missed the first target at D (Pivot was first target) and finally stopped at E, but this still leaves us short the other trade. First time we’ve had to net/hedge in a while:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/11/12

Monday, June 11th, 2012

We got a huge gap in the Forex pairs for the start of the week, which created a unique setup for trades. However, the gap ended up filling and we had a nice winner on the EURUSD in the process. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, currently carrying the second half short with a stop in the money at C, which is above the last static trendline:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/8/12

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Another winner to close out the week. Five for six for the week in total. Nice stuff, and the ranges have been back up, Hopefully, this holds.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, then discuss the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday from Friday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A (half size), hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/7/12

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Finally ended up with a stop out for the week after a nice run. See EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but half size ahead of Trade Balance in the morning.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B, unfortunately, as it did ultimately make the move to R1 exactly:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/6/12

Wednesday, June 6th, 2012

Another winner (and you really should have done it twice), see EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop under entry and stopped at C in the morning, and then technically retriggered at a time that you should have retaken under our rules at D, hit first target at E. I was helping some people out with a tech issue on our end, so I missed it and didn’t update it:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/5/12

Tuesday, June 5th, 2012

Two more winners to start the month and we closed out the second half of the long from the prior month in the money. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

New long triggered at A early (half size), hit first target at B, raised stop under the UBreak entry on that AND on the second half of the long from the prior day and stopped out at C, which was 50 pips in the money for the prior day’s trade. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, and stopped the second half over the entry at F:

Forex Calls Recap for 6/4/12

Monday, June 4th, 2012

A very flat session overnight (UK was on Holiday), but we got a clean winner in the US session on the EURUSD. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stop moved under UBreak:

Tradesight May 2012 Forex Results

Friday, June 1st, 2012

Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down

Tradesight Pip Results for April 2012

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 46.7%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (around the 8th)
Net pips: +125

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for May 2012

Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 36.1%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (May 20-25)
Net pips: +10

Forex continues to show us very boring ranges, despite the fact that the US Dollar Index finally broke out of a long base formation late in the month of May. With everything going on in Europe in particular, which is crushing the global economy, you would think there would be more action in Forex. We will discuss the ranges below.

In the meantime, this was our second-worst winning percentage for trade signals in two years at only 36%. 36 trades triggered and only 13 were winners. The good news is that we did end up with a couple of bigger winners that carried over a couple of days when the Dollar Index broke out, and that kept our net for the month at just around even. Trust me, this could have been the ugly negative month that we get once a year. If this is the worst that it goes, we’re OK. It also continues to show that our strategy works. Despite losing a bigger percentage of trades than normal, keeping the losers tight and letting the winners ride helped us out. You don’t usually expect things to pick up in the summer for Forex, but with the global situation, it is hard to say.

In terms of the ranges themselves, let’s see how they did in the month on the averages. Remember that the last couple of months saw the 6 month average daily ranges drop sharply. That trend continued in May, with the EURUSD dropping its ADR from 125 to 115 and the GBPUSD going from 115 to 107. These aren’t as big as the last two months, but keep in mind that even just three months ago, the EURUSD 6-month average daily range was 154. That’s a whopping 25% drop in 3 months.

The turning point lies ahead. Just a matter of when. On to June…

Forex Calls Recap for 6/1/12

Friday, June 1st, 2012

Some winners and a loser in the GBPUSD to close out the week and month of May. Glad it is over.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

From the perspective of the Seeker and Comber, there is a lot going on for once, all of which suggests a likely reversal to the downside of the USD and to the upside on the EUR. That might not make sense to many given the news, but the technicals are saying so. We shall see.

US Dollar Index intraday from Thursday/Friday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday afternoon.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A (half size night ahead of NFP), but gave you hours to enter all the way to B without stopping. Hit first target at C, lowered stop and stopped at D. Triggered the long at E and stopped. Triggered short again at F, hit first target at G, and closed out the final at the end of the chart for the end of the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/31/12

Thursday, May 31st, 2012

Another light session that tried both ways and failed on light ranges. See EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but we will be half size ahead of the NFP data.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/30/12

Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

An unfortunate session as we were stopped out just barely on a EURUSD trade that ended up working great after. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and then stopped just barely on the spike at B before heading down to where we would have wanted:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/29/12

Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

Not much action early despite coming back from a long weekend, but then things started moving in the US session. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered short in the morning again at C, hit first target at D, then hit S2 and currently holding the second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/25/12

Friday, May 25th, 2012

One loser to close the week as the big players were already out the door. There wasn’t even an end of week bank closeout Friday morning ahead of the long weekend. Just dead flat. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss the US Dollar Index. There are some things to discuss on the daily charts, so have a look.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped on narrow range:

Analysis for the week ahead is for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 5/24/12

Thursday, May 24th, 2012

A very flat session with the EURUSD and GBPUSD dropping to about 60 pips of range again. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

We also closed out the EURUSD short from the prior session for about 160 pips.

New calls and Chat tonight. Hard to say how tomorrow goes leading into a long weekend.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Stopped out of the final piece of the trade from the prior session at B for 160 pip gain, and also triggered our new long there, which stopped. Triggered part of the trade, but not all under our order staggering rules, at C and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/23/12

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

Another winner, plus the EURUSD short from the prior session continues to work and is now 100 pips in the money. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Lowered stop twice during the session from the short from the prior day. Stop now over the line at A:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A overnight, hit first target at B exactly to the pip, and closed in the morning at C, as we would have lowered stop over the entry overnight if we had been there once it hit the first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/22/12

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

Had a winning trade in EURUSD for the session, see that section below. Still holding the second half of the short.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, never stopped, gave later chances to take the same entry, hit first target at B, currently holding second half short with a stop over VAL at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/21/12

Monday, May 21st, 2012

Two half size losing trades to start the week as the market went nowhere. See EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long very early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered only part of the trade short at B under our order staggering rules and stopped:

 

Forex Calls Recap for 5/18/12

Sunday, May 20th, 2012

Loser and a winner to close out the week in the EURUSD. See that section below. New calls and Chat Sunday for the new week.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action on Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately (some Comber 13 signals getting close), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, should have closed out at D for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/17/12

Thursday, May 17th, 2012

A stop out in a new EURUSD call, but our GBPUSD short from the last two days finally stopped out 250 pips in the money. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, options expiration tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Lowered stop two more times on the GBPUSD and finally stopped over S2 at A for a 250 pip gain from the call earlier in the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/16/12

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

Two new triggers that didn’t work out, and our GBPUSD short continues and currently about 150 pips in the money. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you another chance to enter, and stopped at B. Triggered short at C on news out of Greece on a spike, stopped at D:

GBPUSD:

Still short from prior session at 1.6050 with a stop over the S1 here:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/15/12

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

Another winner, this one short the GBPUSD and still holding the second half of the trade. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stop currently over black line on the second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/14/12

Monday, May 14th, 2012

Nothing at all through the Asian and European sessions, and then we finally moved in the North American session and triggered a winner in the GBPUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still long second half with a stop under Pivot (entry):

Forex Calls Recap for 5/11/12

Friday, May 11th, 2012

50 pips of range on the EURUSD. Ouch. See that section below.

We close out another fairly dull week with a couple of winners and a couple of losers for the week. Very unexciting at the moment, as the action continues to be in stocks and futures.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately on them (nothing new to see), and then discuss the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you another chance to enter at B without stopping, then stopped at C. 50 pips of range, ouch:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/10/12

Thursday, May 10th, 2012

Closed out the short from the prior day on the EURUSD in the money. Lost on the GBPUSD short and closed out the second one just under the entry. See those sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Second half of the short from the prior session stopped at A over the new Pivot:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, eventually gave up and closed at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/9/12

Wednesday, May 9th, 2012

Early triggered stopped and then triggered during the European session and worked on the EURUSD. See the recap below. Slow session other than that.

New calls and Chat tonight as we start to get some economic data the next two days.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (half-size) at A and stopped at B. Triggered short again at C, hit first target at D, and holding second half with a stop over S1:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/8/12

Tuesday, May 8th, 2012

Our EURUSD long from the prior session stopped in the money, and then we had a new winner short on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Second half of the long from the prior day stopped at A. New trade triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/7/12

Monday, May 7th, 2012

We had a gap to open the week that jumped us beyond most of our key levels, and the session was spent heading back in the other direction (EURUSD still hasn’t quite filled). See EURUSD section below for recap.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market direction lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Under our order staggering rules, at least a piece of the trade triggered at A, and part of that might have stopped at B depending on how you place your stops (has to go under by the spread plus stagger, this didn’t even go three under). The rest triggered long at C, eventually hit the S1 first target at D, and we moved stop under S1, so at E, and holding:

Tradesight April 2012 Forex Results

Friday, May 4th, 2012

Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2012

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 56.7%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (start of the month)
Net pips: +70

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for April 2012

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 46.7%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (around the 8th)
Net pips: +125

I feel lucky to have squeaked out a winning month here as ranges continue to drop and we’re seeing no movement anywhere. As I pointed out in the Sunday Forex recap, the US Dollar Index has now been stuck in a small total range for about five months, and was even around the same level if you reached back seven months. This is the type of environment where we would usually have our one or two losing months of the year, but thanks mostly to a decent third week of the month, we came out ahead. But this sure isn’t how we like to see it.

In last month’s report, I commented that the EURUSD 6-month average daily range had dropped from 144 to 131 pips in a month, a 13-pip drop, which is quite a bit. Well, 30 days later, the EURUSD ADR is now down to 125 pips, down another 16, and down a whopping 29 pips of AVERAGE daily range in 2 months. Can’t remember the last time that I saw that.

As I discussed a couple of weeks ago in a piece that I wrote here about average daily ranges, we have seen environments like this in the past. It isn’t the end of the forex world. It just needs some global events to shake things up and get things moving. In the meantime, we’ll stick with our strict system and wait it out for the better gains later.

Forex Calls Recap for 5/4/12

Friday, May 4th, 2012

Loser and a winner to close out the week on the EURUSD. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts separately for each pair (nothing new to see and the GBPUSD Comber count didn’t get any further this week than last), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

I will also be posting the April net pip results from our calls this weekend. Check the Blog or Messenger.

We are probably less than two weeks away from our new Twitter integration, which we are very excited about, and then two months away from being able to listen to the Trading Lab from the road on your phone or tablet.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday afternoon.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A (half size ahead of NFP) and stopped at B. Triggered short again at C (normal size with NPF behind) and hit first target at D and closed final piece at E for end of week and 55 pips:

The rest of the pairs and the market analysis piece are available for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 5/3/12

Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

Here’s an example of why you don’t trade right at the moment of key interest rates announcements of the various banks. See EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but tomorrow is NFP, so half size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A on a spike right on the ECB rate announcement and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/2/12

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

There we go. Some movement and an easy winner in the EURUSD. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight as we head into the last couple of days of the week and the NFP data on Friday.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A, never stopped but gave you all the way to B and the European session to take or go full size, hit first target at C, lowered stop over S2 in the morning and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 5/1/12

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

Another dull session until the ISM data here in the US that caused a spike for 30 minutes. Strangely, the EURUSD and GBPUSD went in separate directions, both away from our triggers initially, although the news managed to hit the EURUSD short. See that section below.

New calls and Chat this evening.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short after a big move down on news at A, went exactly 20 pips against at B, closed at C for end of day again since nothing had happened:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/30/12

Monday, April 30th, 2012

That was a very slow session for Forex. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD barely traded 40 pips of range during the European session. We eventually had a trigger, but closed it out around the entry. See GBPUSD below. Tonight’s calls are the last official calls of April.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New Calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Finally triggered short at A, closed at B just over entry for end of session after it went nowhere:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/27/12

Sunday, April 29th, 2012

Winner and a tiny loser to close out the week, and we were trading half size for the GDP first look. See EURUSD below for the trade review.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts for each pair with our Seeker and Comber tools separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing new there).

New calls Sunday afternoon.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over entry and stopped overnight. Triggered long at C, closed at D for end of week and a 5 pip loss:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/26/12

Thursday, April 26th, 2012

Wow, that was flat trading. Market is waiting at least for the first look at GDP for Q1, which comes out Friday morning. See GBPUSD for our trigger for the day.

New calls and Chat this evening, but we will be half size ahead of the GDP.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B. No action at all. Hit the trigger again in the morning exactly but didn’t get through:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/25/12

Wednesday, April 25th, 2012

New trade in EURUSD stopped out (half size ahead of Fed), and then we stopped the second half of the prior day’s trade in the money. See that section below.

Pretty flat session before and after the Fed.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A (half size for session ahead of Fed) and stopped. Raised stop in the morning on the long from the prior session and stopped in the money at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/24/12

Tuesday, April 24th, 2012

A decent winner on the EURUSD, and we’re holding the second half still. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls tonight, and Chat, but half size ahead of Fed announcement tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target eventually at B without coming close to stopping, and currently have a stop under tri-star green line at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/23/12

Monday, April 23rd, 2012

Slow session to start the week with one tight stop out in the GBPUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

A 2-day Fed meeting begins Tuesday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, never went enough overnight to matter, and I tightened the stop to 10 pips in the morning and it stopped at B:

 

Forex Calls Recap for 4/20/12

Friday, April 20th, 2012

Closed out two winners to end what was a surprisingly decent week despite continued bad ranges. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (not getting near any 13 signals, but note the GBPUSD daily chart below), then look at the US Dollar Index, which isn’t indicating anything new.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:

GBPUSD:

Finally stopped second half of trade from Wednesday under LBreak at A, which was only a 60 pip gain since ranges have been bad:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/19/12

Thursday, April 19th, 2012

Two new trades worked exactly to their first targets. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below, plus we are still long GBPUSD from the prior session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but no news on Friday and we have options expiration, which might slow things down.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C just over entry:

GBPUSD:

We came into the session long the second half of the trade from the prior day with a stop under LBreak. New trade triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the second half at C overnight, but never broke LBreak. We then adjusted the stop on the piece from the prior day under UBreak and continue to hold, which would be stopped under the line at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/18/12

Wednesday, April 18th, 2012

Loser and a winner (still going) on GBPUSD, see that section below.

Ranges were improved, let’s hope it continues.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop under R1, which will be adjusted when we get the new Levels:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/17/12

Tuesday, April 17th, 2012

Closed out a 90 pip winner from the prior session and stopped out of a new trade. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

We had a short entry under the Pivot, and look how the EURUSD exactly hit and bounced off of it at A without triggering. We then triggered long at B, never went far enough to hit the first target, and I raised the stop on the trade from the prior day in the morning to match the new trade, which all stopped at C for 90 pips gain on the prior day’s trade and a usual loss on the new one. If you took the trade again later, it ended up doing nothing:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/16/12

Monday, April 16th, 2012

Two winners to start the week (one went early, so half size, the other we still have half on). See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A, hit first target at B, stopped in the money second half at C. C was also a long entry for an additional call, hit first target at D, still holding second half long with stop under LBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/13/12

Friday, April 13th, 2012

We closed the week out with a 90 pip winner on the EURUSD. See that section below. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index, which is doing nothing.

Even though we don’t have any Seeker or Comber signals pending, it is interesting to look at something like the USDJPY now, which gave solid sell signals a couple of weeks ago, and see how it played out.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for 90 pips for end of week:

The rest of the report and the analysis for next week is for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/12/12

Thursday, April 12th, 2012

A winner, but not anything special, and then it went further after the normal time for trading and movement is done. Strange environment.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

Half size again tonight ahead of the CPI in the morning, so nothing special to expect.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, did not stop, closed at B when it was stuck to the tri-star level, but eventually made a move to the first target at C after that:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/11/12

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012

A winner on the EURUSD and that’s about it as ranges remained narrow. See EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight but Trade Balance tomorrow morning and CPI Friday morning are two of our big three each month, so half size, which makes sense anyway in this environment.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and stopped at C in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/10/12

Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

Another boring session with 70 pips of range on the EURUSD. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below for trade recaps.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped at B. Triggered short in the morning at C, should have stopped at least some pieces of your trade under our order staggered methods at D. Triggered short again at E, closed at F as it hadn’t hit first target or stop by end of session (again):

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size) and stopped. Additional call in the morning never triggered but looked good:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/9/12

Monday, April 9th, 2012

Half size night for me as I said in the opening comments as Europe was entirely on vacation for Easter, even though the US was not. Basically got what we should have expected out of such a session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls tonight and hopefully back to work with the world open.

EURUSD:

All trades were half size. Triggered short at A and stopped (note the 13 for a bottom). Triggered short at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, closed at B at entry as we ran out of time:

A Discussion of Forex Ranges

Thursday, April 5th, 2012

I get a lot of questions about the bad ranges that we are experiencing in Forex right now and what that means and whether the Forex market is now dead forever because of the regulations that have come about in the last few years, some of which protect consumers, but others cut leverage and do things that some people believe affect the market negatively in terms of range.

Let me start by shooting down those theories.

1) All markets have dull periods and wild periods.

2) The Forex market moves based on global economic events and money flows. Just because the average retail daytrader can now only trade on 50:1 leverage instead of 100:1 doesn’t mean that the EURUSD can’t move. In fact, it will.

I hope by the end of this article, you’ll see that.

We track what we call “Average Daily Range” in the Forex pairs. Basically, we’re looking at the last six months of data on each pair. A “day’s range” is the high minus the low of the day. So let’s take the EURUSD. If the high is 1.3164 and the low is 1.3035 on a day (which it was Wednesday at 5 pm to Thursday at 5 pm EST), that’s 129 pips of range for the day. We then take that number for the last six month’s of trading days, add up the ranges, and divide by the number of trading days. This tell us the six month average.

It is VERY important to use 6 months and not less in these calculations. First of all, we use them as a trading support and resistance point when hit each day, and our research and backtesting showed that if you used less data, such as 2-3 months, the number swung more wildly and wasn’t used by the market. Anything over 6 months seems to have diminishing returns in terms of practical use.

So at this moment, the EURUSD 6 month ADR is 139 pips. That’s down from 168 pips, which was the 6 month trailing ADR at the end of 2011, just a mere three months ago. What does that mean in practical application? It means that in those three months, we saw a lot of days well under 139 pips that have brought the number down.

We make way more money when the market moves under our system, so lower ranges generally mean a few things:

1) Higher chance of stopping out of a trade
2) Less chance that even if a trade is profitable, it goes far or turns into a big winner

So, what’s the net importance? Periods of bad ranges mean lesser results from our trading. We’re going to make the most money when the ranges are good.

Now that we understand that dynamic, obviously it becomes important to know whether the Forex market is truly seeing worse ranges forever and is in a permanent decline or not. Even though the movement of the market is not about the leverage factor or how much retail money goes into daytrading, that seems to be a discussion among daytraders (who seem to give themselves too much credit for being the primary factor of market movement).

So let’s look at this graphically and see if we should be concerned.

Here are the last 12 months in the EURUSD, and I choose this because it is the most commonly traded pair:

I’ve boxed in two periods of a couple of months or so where the movement was limited, and thus the average daily ranges in there were smaller, bringing down the averages. Now, let me point out that even at the end of that first box, which is around September 1, 2011, the 6-month average range on the EURUSD was still 155 pips. So basically, even though there are 2-3 months of fairly flat activity there, the average for the first half or so of 2011 was 155, which is still 16 pips better than the current 139, and believe me, 16 pips off of a SIX MONTH average is a big deal. But, as I’ve already said, even after that cycle, we were back up to 168 pips on the average by the end of 2011.

2-3 months at a time of narrow ranges happens in Forex. It usually happens at least once a year. Also, a common time is July/August when the world is on summer break, especially out of Europe. Big decisions aren’t being made. Note that that first box in the chart above ended at the end of August, and remember that as we start going backward in time in a few paragraphs.

Now, let’s look at the same chart (last 12 months on the EURUSD) with boxes drawn around periods of good movement, which also raises average ranges by definition (it would be rare for the market to move over the course of a month in one direction fairly well, but for the range of each day to get worse in the course of that move):

What do we see here? I would say last May and into June had good range, and September through the end of January in general did, although I put a secondary box around three flat weeks, which was the end of year Holidays (also common, but you’ll see soon, not always the case).

If you go back and look at our results, we had some killer months in there. But those summer months were awful, and the current environment is even worse based on the ADR being 139 pips. And while it doesn’t correlate exactly, note that the EURUSD is exactly here at the start of April where it was at the start of October, six months ago.

Next, let’s start going back in time year by year, showing the full calendar year, starting with 2010, with boxes drawn around the periods where trading was good and ranges were good. That means that the areas between the boxes were dull. Here’s 2010:

What we see here is that mid-February through mid-April was boring, most of August was boring (on average, it’s the slowest month of the year), and December was slow, especially the back half (nothing unusual). So I would call 2010 a good year that saw less slow periods, and certainly nothing extended for more than about 6-8 weeks. The EURUSD cover 2500 pips that year.

2009:

2500 pips from high to low again, most of it in one direction. Three solid months (12 weeks) of doldrums in the summer. End of the year wasn’t bad. The funny thing here is that even with the movement, since July and August were so slow and the rest of the back half of the year wasn’t too wild, the ADR on the EURUSD at the end of the year was 132 pips…LOWER than it is right now!

By the way, you can log into our site and go to Forex Levels and go back to any date you want and see what the 6-month trailing ADR was at that time.

2008:

A great trading year. Some slowness in November for 4 weeks, and yet, still, we had a bad period from April through mid-July (strangely, the rest of July and August were great, so never STOP trading just because you hit August). The main point, though is that we saw a full 3 months of bad activity in 2008 also. I’m going to surprise you with the EURUSD ADR at the end of 2008 in a few paragraphs.

2007:

Another great trading year. Nothing to complain about except that period from mid-April to mid-June. This is really a dream year for traders. Trust me, there were no points where people were whining about the ranges being bad.

But here’s where the real point comes in. 2006:

While the back end of the year (starting the weekend of Thanksgiving if you were here and remember) and into 2007 were great, the prior 6-7 MONTHS were awful. The bulk of trading for that whole period was almost in a 200 pip range. I like days that hit that in a single session!

Trust me, everyone back then was proclaiming the death of Forex, which had really only come into the public eye about 4-5 years prior. People were saying “Everyone is trading Forex now, so the market can’t move” and “Now they are going to regulate it and ruin it.” Stuff like that. I had started trading Forex in 2005, but then again, I have been trading markets since 1989, so slow periods, I know, are part of the game, and we said that here at Tradesight at the time. Note the comment above the box on that 2006 chart. The ADR on the EURUSD on Thanksgiving Day 2006 was 91 pips! Today, we’re still at 139. And between here and there, scroll up and look back through all of those years and see all of the movement.

And then here’s the real doozy. What was the EURUSD ADR on December 31, 2008? 227 PIPS. That’s not a typo. Why? A little thing called the banking collapse of 2008. The markets went crazy…all markets.

So remember, in late 2006, everyone was proclaiming the death of Forex trading. Look at how 2007 went and 2008, and think about the change in ranges from that dull six month period in 2006 to the peak at the end of 2008 (227 pips of ADR is almost not tradeable from the other perspective…too much fast movement equals too much risk).

The driving factor of Forex isn’t regulation of the retail trading houses or lower leverage for the retail trader. It’s global economic forces, and believe me, maybe right this moment, with interest rates near zero globally and the problems we are still experiencing here from the real estate bust and banking collapse and the issues of debt in Europe…it’s a little bit frozen. But those are the reasons, and at some point, one way or another, something’s going to break. Could be a collapse of a country or someone starting to grow. Either one will get things moving.

Having said all of that, that’s why we trade stocks and futures here as well. They have trading just great even as Forex has gotten a little slow the last few months. But I don’t expect to go all the way through 2012 without some better periods for Forex too.

Have a great weekend.

Tradesight March 2012 Forex Results

Thursday, April 5th, 2012

Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2012

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 56.7%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (start of the month)
Net pips: +70

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for March 2012

Number of trades: 33
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 48.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (around the 6th)
Net pips: +100

The Forex markets continue to exhibit narrower than preferred ranges, which makes for poor trading opportunities. We only had one trade the whole month, I believe, where the final exit was more than 100 pips in the money. However, with good trade management, we still ended up ahead, and actually outperformed February despite lower win ratio. The good news is that it didn’t come down to any one big trade, where if you missed it, it ruined your month. The bad news is that these narrow ranges, which I will discuss in a separate blog over the weekend, continue to disappoint Forex traders (fortunately, futures and stocks have had great weeks).

What is really remarkable here is that the six month AVERAGE daily ranges dropped quite a bit further in March than where they were in February. The EURUSD dropped it’s average 13 pips to 141 pips per day over the last six months. That’s a big drop when thinking about an average. Really happy that we survived the way that we did. GBPUSD dropped about 7 pips off its trailing six month average too. The only thing steady is the USDJPY, which sadly only trades about 57 pips per day on average since the earthquake last year. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD also dropped about 10 pips on average during the month.

Forex Calls Recap for 4/5/12

Thursday, April 5th, 2012

A partial stop out and a nice winner to wrap the short week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

We will post Levels tonight for those that wish to trade, but there will be no calls due to the US Holiday on Friday. NFP comes out in the morning, so be careful.

EURUSD:

Part of a trade triggered long at A and stopped. Then the full trade triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop in the morning and closed final piece at D for 50 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/4/12

Wednesday, April 4th, 2012

Another dead session but a winner for us in GBPUSD, see that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap the short week.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A early (half size) but gave you hours to enter (and get to full size) through B, hit first target at C, stopped slightly in the money on the second half after adjusting stop in the morning:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/3/12

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012

Another boring session until way too late to matter. There was news around 2 pm EST, and the pairs spiked hard in favor of the USD.

See EURUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A, eventually stopped at B. Triggered short at C, stopped at D. Then came the big move at an odd time of day on the FOMC notes:

Forex Calls Recap for 4/2/12

Monday, April 2nd, 2012

Essentially no triggers overnight as the GBPUSD never went down to the trigger and the EURUSD never broke through the long trigger, although depending on how you staggered your orders, one piece of the EURUSD entry might have triggered, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

It’s possible that one leg of your long idea triggered at A under our order staggering rules, but it only went one pip beyond the number:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/30/12

Friday, March 30th, 2012

Totally flat session to end the quarter, which isn’t a surprise. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber counts separately (nothing new to see, but watch the continuation of last weekend’s conversation about USDJPY action), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, finally stopped at B, very flat:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/29/12

Friday, March 30th, 2012

Not much for results. Basically a loser, a winner, and a flat trade. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, dead flat after, never hit first target or stop, closed at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered long in the morning at B, closed at C in the money as it hadn’t hit first target or stop:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/28/12

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

The EURUSD and GBPUSD went opposite directions overnight, missing our triggers, and then the EURUSD finally triggered in the morning. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Finally triggered short at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/27/12

Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

A very dull session and one stop out on the EURUSD. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Dead night:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/26/12

Monday, March 26th, 2012

Two winners to start the week in the EURUSD, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B (never went 20 pips plus against the LBreak), second half stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, used R1 as support after that, closed the whole thing for 30 pips gain as it never hit first target or stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/23/12

Friday, March 23rd, 2012

A winner to close out the week in the EURUSD for a full 45 pips. See that section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (a few things to see on EURUSD and USDJPY) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Speaking of, here’s the Dollar Index intraday Thursday/Friday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C:

At least that trade washes two stop outs from this slow week. Still no continuation though.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/22/12

Thursday, March 22nd, 2012

Loser and a draw as the market headed one way, went a little bit the other, and ended up back where it started yet again.

See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up what has been one of the slowest weeks in a while.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, went 40 pips but didn’t quite reach first target, lowered stop in the morning over entry, might have stopped you at B or else just sitting there at entry:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/21/12

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012

Loser and a winner (still going) for the session in the EURUSD. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening. Ranges continue to be narrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, stop currently over red LBreak level on second half:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/20/12

Tuesday, March 20th, 2012

Closed out the second half of a nice winner from the prior session in the GBPUSD, but stopped out on a new trade in the EURUSD. See both sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, might have stopped a piece of your trade at B depending on how you staggered your stops based on our system (was exactly 21 pips over entry level), did not reach first target but went 40 pips, stopped at C in morning. Meanwhile the second half of the long from the prior session had stopped at D for a 50 pip gain:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/19/12

Monday, March 19th, 2012

Totally flat European session, but our EURUSD trade finally triggered in the US session and worked great on the long side (still holding half). See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/16/12

Friday, March 16th, 2012

A loser and a nice winner to close out the week on a positive note. Amazing how that happens when you actually get range, most of which came after the CPI data, no surprise.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with our Seeker and Comber counts separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index, which really has nothing new to say.

Calls resume Sunday.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional levels:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, NEVER WENT 20 PIPS AGAINST THE TRIGGER LEVEL, hit first target at C, and closed final piece for end of week at D:

The rest of the weekend analysis is available for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/15/12

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Took a while to play out, but we have a nice winner going from the session in the GBPUSD finally after a slow week. See that section below for the recap.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning, so half size.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stop under VAH and holding:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/14/12

Wednesday, March 14th, 2012

Another slow session. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A overnight and stopped. Put back in in morning and triggered short at B and stopped again:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/13/12

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

Ended up with both of our calls working on the EURUSD, which was nice to have them just close at the target ahead of the Fed instead of holding a piece. See that section below.

The US Dollar got a little stronger after the Fed, but not much.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and hit target (no partials, we were just selling the whole thing today) at B. Triggered short at C (didn’t break the level by enough an hour earlier to enter) and closed whole thing at target at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/12/12

Monday, March 12th, 2012

Since not all countries do the time change the same weekend anymore, we have seen an impact on trading the last couple of years when certain countries change their time zone over the weekend but others do not. Since Forex is the offset of two currencies and requires that both sides participates, the technicals of a pair can be thrown off by one country shifting their clocks by an hour when another does not. This then leads to a dull session for a day until the technical realign. We say that in this session, which was probably made worse by the fact that we have a Fed announcement tomorrow. So we ended up with about 60 pips of range in the EURUSD, 20 of that late in the session. See EURUSD section below for the recap.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but half size ahead of the Fed tomorrow.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped at B. Triggered long at C and stopped at D, put them both back in in the morning. Triggered long at E and closed at F for 20 pip gain as it hadn’t reached first target and the session was ending (and dull):

Forex Calls Recap for 3/9/12

Sunday, March 11th, 2012

Closed out the week with another nice winner, see EURUSD section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing new to focus on, but look at how the 13 sell signals on EURUSD and GBPUSD from last week nailed the turning points), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

New calls and Chat Sunday.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop twice and then closed at C for end of week for 120 pip gain:

Subscribers have access to the preview of the week ahead.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/8/12

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

One trigger, a winner, in the GBPUSD, and we still have the second half of the long trade. See that section below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance and NFP in the morning means half size for me.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop twice, currently under R2, and holding into the next session the second half of the trade:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/7/12

Wednesday, March 7th, 2012

Not a great session. We closed out the second half of the GBPUSD short from the prior day well in the money (see below), but then got stopped a few times on new EURUSD calls (see below).

New calls and Chat tonight as we head toward a bunch of news Thursday night/Friday morning globally.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, eventually stopped at B. Put trades back in the morning, triggered short at C and stopped. Triggered long at D and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Closed second half of prior day’s short in the money on the sweep over VAH at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/6/12

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

Nice winner in the GBPUSD (see below) and the trade is still going, holding into the next session.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop twice and currently have a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 3/5/12

Monday, March 5th, 2012

A nothing session to start the week. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. At least some pieces of the trade triggered long at B depending on how you followed our order staggering rules. This didn’t go anywhere and never broke under the UBreak to get stopped, so I closed it at C for the end of the session:

Tradesight February 2012 Forex Results

Sunday, March 4th, 2012

Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for January 2012

Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (around January 4-8 and again late in month)
Net pips: +330

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for February 2012

Number of trades: 30
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 56.7%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (start of the month)
Net pips: +70

February was not a great month for Forex. To start with, ranges dropped sharply. The 6-month average daily ranges on the EURUSD and GBPUSD dropped 10 pips each during the month. When you realize that you are averaging six months of data, a 10-pip drop is significant. Smaller ranges are bad for us as traders. This was also a short month (29 days with a Holiday), the shortest month of the year. In addition, we had FOUR trades during the month that triggered in the morning and that we closed at the end of the session because they were right around the entry, so they hadn’t stopped or hit the first target. This almost never happens.

That said, we did end up with a positive month, although nothing extraordinary compared to many other months. It still proves that the system works, as we won 56% of our 30 trades and kept the losers tight as usual. Not much else to say except that I hope the ranges expand again and we can get back to a more normal environment soon. It is somewhat shocking that we ended up nowhere with so much going on in Europe with the bailout.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/3/12

Friday, March 2nd, 2012

A nice ending to the week with a solid winner in the EURUSD and no stop outs. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week for all of the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately (lots to discuss there), and then look at the US Dollar Index.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed late in the day for end of week and +75 pips:

Here’s a sample of our analysis on the daily charts of the pairs, this one for EURUSD:

Note the Comber 13 sell signal three days ago at A, which creates the pink risk line. Also note that this occurred at the green static trendline, which is the high of the last 9 bar downward setup at A. That’s pretty much as technical as it gets. The green line is dashed, by the way, because we did get a day where the EURUSD closed a couple of pips over it, which doesn’t matter for the sell signal:

Rest of the pairs available for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 3/2/12

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

Boring session, one loser in EURUSD, and I didn’t put it back in in the morning (not that it triggered anyway).

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/28/12

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

Two winners (see EURUSD and EURJPY sections below) as the market again went mostly nowhere. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped final piece at C:

EURJPY:

Put in a scalp idea as the UBreak red line had been hit four times over the last two days. Long over A, ran nicely:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/27/12

Monday, February 27th, 2012

Clean winner (although with no follow through) to start the week. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening. No major news this week to slow us down.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over entry and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/24/12

Friday, February 24th, 2012

A nice winner to close out an otherwise useless week of narrow-ranged Forex trading. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with both the Seeker and Comber for each pair (several signals about to hit of note), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/23/12

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

Another very dull session, and so far, probably the dullest week of the year, even though it is a short one. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

See GBPUSD section below for our trade recaps. New calls and Chat tonight, no major news tomorrow.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. If you put it back in late in the session, a piece of the trade (not the whole trade under our order staggering rules) triggered long at B and then the rest at C, and then closed at the end of this chart at D since the session was over and we didn’t get to first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/22/12

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

An incredibly slow session except on the GBPUSD, but our calls were in the EURUSD. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short extremely early if you were ready (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long in European session at B and stopped. Put back in in the morning, triggered long at C, closed just over the entry at D due to time of day that the trade triggered:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/21/12

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

A news driven session as Europe announced the bailout of Greece Monday afternoon. This caused a spike on most pairs, and that move ended up being the range for the day in most. See EURUSD for trade recap.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at C, closed out at the end of the chart for just over a 10 pip loss as it never hit first target or stop loss:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/17/12

Friday, February 17th, 2012

Another winner to close out the week. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

Monday is a US Bank Holiday. Calls resume Monday afternoon/evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:

The rest of the report, including the forward look into next week’s action, is for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/16/12

Friday, February 17th, 2012

Closed out two winners and a flat trade in EURUSD, ending a week that closed better than it started. New calls tonight and Chat, but we have CPI in the morning, one of our big three each month, so half size, and also it is options expiration, which can be slow for all markets.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Came in short from 1.3120 from the prior session (second half of that trade). New trade triggered short at A, hit first target perfectly at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C for a winner there, plus closing out the prior day’s trade for almost 100 pips. Long triggered at D, but I closed it flat, too late in the session:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/15/12

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

A very interesting lesson for some in the session. We had trades trigger in GBPUSD and EURUSD. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight as we head into options expiration and a 3-day weekend.

EURUSD:

Triggered short very early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B, hit first target at C, currently holding second half with a stop over 1.3100:

GBPUSD:

This trade shows you a little about how our Advanced Forex course can help you make adjustments on the fly. Triggered long at A. First target was VAH, which was right at the top of the screen at 1.5741 (you can’t quite see the line). We came within 5 pips, so if you stagger your orders correctly as we teach in the main course, you could have gotten a piece off. However, we got a Seeker 13 sell signal (the red 13 on the chart) right up there too, which I pointed out in the Messenger, which should make you take a piece off if your price hadn’t hit. Second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/14/12

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

A better session than the last, but still no consistent movement in the pairs, and not a ton of range. See EURUSD for trade call reviews.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target exactly at C, second half stopped. Put both trades back in in the morning per the Messenger, triggered short at D and hit first target at E. Still holding second half with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/13/12

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Not much of a session to start the week. We got a move very early and had to make the calls a little different than usual as we were above UBreak on EURUSD and GBPUSD from the start almost. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, didn’t do anything, closed at C right at entry price for no net:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/10/12

Monday, February 13th, 2012

A nice winner (80 pips to the final exit) to close out the week. See EURUSD section below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday for all pairs, then look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber counts separately for all ten pairs (no 13 buy or sells on any symbol this week), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines from the session:

Calls resume Sunday for a full week, but the following Monday is a Holiday.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A early but gave you all the way to B to grab it, never stopped either way, hit first target at C, lowered stop in the morning and then closed final piece at D for end of week:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/9/12

Monday, February 13th, 2012

Another slow session, two in a row. See GBPUSD below. We have Trade Balance in the morning, which is one of our Big Three each month, so half size ahead of it, and then we’ll see again if there are additional calls to make in the morning after the data for end of week.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

et the trigger nicely and then triggered at A, but stopped at B on news:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/8/12

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

Wow, 50 pips of range on the EURUSD. Ouch, what a session. GBPUSD stopped well in the money from yesterday, but a new call triggered short and stopped. See GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Second half of yesterday’s long idea stopped in the money for around 45 pips at A:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/7/12

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

Slow overnight and then some movement finally for the US session. Stopped out of the second half of the EURUSD long from the prior day in the money, then two stops, then a new winner that is still in play.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Second half of the trade from the prior day stopped in the money under the LBreak (lower red line). New trade triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long overnight at A and stopped. Put it back in in the morning and triggered at B (or the second attempt, either one) and hit first target at C, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/6/12

Monday, February 6th, 2012

Early trigger that most probably didn’t take due to the Super Bowl, but a clean trigger in the morning that worked and still going. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (but with a gap) at A and gave you a couple of hours to enter if you weren’t watching the game. Hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C, but that was also a new call for a long that triggered at C, hit first target at D (note the perfect use of Pivot), currently holding with stop under 1.3100:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/3/12

Sunday, February 5th, 2012

Half size night ahead of the NFP data, and a slow session. We did spike on the news, which is why we usually like avoiding it. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday (see EURUSD), then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber signals separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.

Calls resume Sunday afternoon.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Could have put the short back in if you were awake, but it is outside of our timeframe for counting it:

Rest of the report is available for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 2/2/12

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

A really dull session overnight, and we barely triggered a trade heading into the US session. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

See EURUSD section below for the recap. New calls and Chat tonight but we have NFP in the morning so I’ll be half size and low on expectations.

EUURSD:

Set the trigger perfectly at A (ah the power of the Breaks), triggered short at B, and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/12

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

One new stop out, then we closed the second half of the prior day’s trade in the money, and then a new trade that worked. See EURUSD below for all of it. Nice week, and this is the end of month.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Came in still short and in the money on the EURUSD, second half of the trade from the prior session, with a stop over the new UBreak red line. New trade triggered short early at A, but gave you until B to take normal size without stopping, then stopped at C. Second half of prior day’s trade stopped in the money after that. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, and holding 70 pips in the money with a raised stop as I write this:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/12

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Two more winners, with one still going as I write this. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target (exactly 50 pips) at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, currently holding second half short with a stop over VAL:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/30/12

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Nice winner to start the week, see EURUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight as we head into the last trading day of January.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target cleanly at B, lowered stop over S1 in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/27/12

Friday, January 27th, 2012

A half-sized overnight session with a trigger on the EURUSD and then full-sized triggers on EURUSD and GBPUSD in the morning to close out what was mostly a boring, sub-average range week in Forex.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (there is a LOT to see, read below); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index, where there is also some key information.

A few weeks ago, we began including the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber tools overlaid on the Sunday reports. This weekend is a key example of why we do that, as the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and EURJPY all completed 9-bar setup phases on Friday. This can mean short term reversals on each, but it also means that we now have active Seeker counts and Comber counts. While the Seeker counts start from here, the Comber counts are retroactively counted from the start of the 9-bar setups, so we could potentially get to some 13′s there quickly. See way below for details and we will monitor this in the coming two weeks.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight (half size ahead of GDP) and came within 3 three pips of first target at B, so should have gotten a piece off under our order staggering rules. The rest stopped. Re-entered after GDP, triggered long at C, hit first target at D, closed final piece at tri-star level at E for just under 60 pips:

The rest of the report and market analysis is for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/26/12

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Came into the session still long half of the trade from the prior day in the EURUSD. New trade triggered and didn’t work (see below); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES but we closed the gain from the prior day.

New calls and Chat tonight, but first look at Q4 GDP tomorrow morning is a once a quarter big number and a half size night.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

New trade triggered long at A and stopped just barely at B, which was a disappointment since it later worked precisely to the first target at C. I should also point out that the high of the session at D is exactly a tri-star level from our list. Stopped second half of the trade from the prior session at E for a nice gain:

Forex Calls Recap 1/25/12

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

Better session, although we still got stopped out of one. Fed announcement days are typically light overnight, but you can see movement after the announcement. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and hit first target (tri-star magnet level) at C, lowered stop and stopped second half at D. Triggered long after announcement at E and hit first target at F, stop is moved up and holding over:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/24/12

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

Another dull night but this one without consequences to us as we started a 2-day Fed meeting. The announcement is tomorrow, so I will be half size overnight tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

See EURUSD below for trade trigger.

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Finally triggered short at A but didn’t go far, I gave up on it just over the entry at B late in the session and closed for a few pips loss:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/23/12

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Boring session to start the week. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but we are heading into a 2-day Fed meeting.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. If you follow the order staggering rules, at least part of the trade triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at C and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/20/12

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Closed out the GBPUSD from two days ago finally for 75 pips or so. EURUSD trade stopped out overnight, and a short in the EURUSD didn’t quite make it to the first target and I finally gave up on it as the week was winding down.

See both sections below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber for each pair (that 13 buy signal on the GBPUSD from last weekend worked perfectly); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

A full week ahead, including a Fed meeting. Calls resume Sunday evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B. Triggered short at C, didn’t quite hit the first target at D, and closed at the end of the chart for end of week and 15 pips loss:

GBPUSD:

Last half of the trade from Wednesday stopped out at A for 75 pips:

Nice week overall.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/19/12

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

GBPUSD barely drifted higher but still hasn’t stopped us out of our long from yesterday. I’ve adjusted the stop, see below. Meanwhile, new trade in EURUSD worked, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Set the trigger perfectly at A as discussed in the Lab. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, raised stop under UBreak entry in the morning and we’ll say it stopped at D, although if you staggered your exit per the rules, you should still have some because it only went 3 pips under:

GBPUSD:

Barely 60 pips of range for the night, but we’re still long from the other day with a stop now under UBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/18/12

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

A loser and a winner that is still in play. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but half size for me with CPI in the morning. Also, we have options expiration on Friday.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long overnight at A and stopped. Put them back in in the morning, triggered long at B, hit first target at C, still holding second half with a stop under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/17/12

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

A winner to start the short week. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Told everyone to put full size in early as we usually do on the first day back from a long weekend. Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop under entry in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/13/12

Friday, January 13th, 2012

So we ended up with a new small winner, closed out a 100 pip winner, and added another 120 pip winner (to final exit) to close out what started as a very slow week. See EURUSD below.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber overlaid for each pair (see GBPUSD in particular); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday with market directional lines:

We will have Levels Sunday but no official calls ahead of the Monday Holiday here in the US. Calls resume Monday evening.

EURUSD:

Came in long from the prior session. New trade triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop before I went to bed and stopped that under the entry. This also stopped the rest of the trade from the prior session for 100 pips. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, lowered stop and eventually closed at F for 120 pips to end the week:

The rest of the report is for subscribers only.

Forex Calls Recap for 1/12/12

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

Loser and a winner still going. At least we got some action finally. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight. Half size for me ahead of Trade Balance and also a long weekend.

EURUSD:

An unusual situation. Could have triggered part of the trade early at A (and half size for early entry); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES put the rest of the orders in heading into the European session, the initial piece would have stopped at B if you got it, then the rest triggered at C and hit first target at D, still going with a stop under 1.2800:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A or B and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/11/12

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

AUDUSD triggered short and stopped, nothing else triggered.

New calls tonight and Chat.

US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

AUDUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/10/12

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Boring day again. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Nothing else worth calling as nothing ever happened:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/9/12

Monday, January 9th, 2012

Slow start to the week with narrow ranges. See GBPUSD below for trade call reviews.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size if you were ready) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/6/12

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Closed out a 200 pip winner from the prior session to end the week, plus a new trade stopped out for half size ahead of NFP/Unemployment. See EURUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

As usual on the weekend report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

We have a full week ahead, but then another 3-day weekend for Martin Luther King next Monday.

EURUSD:

Had a stop on the existing short from 1.2920 over VAL. New trades were half size ahead of NFP. Triggered short at A and stopped overnight, but note that the pair exactly used the VAL at B and never stopped the trade from the prior session. If you were awake, triggered short at C, hit first target at D, but I just missed that. Closed final piece at E from prior day for 200 pip gain:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/5/12

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Another day in 2012, another winner, and this one is still going. See EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A but gave you all the way until B to take it without stopping out, hit first target at C, lowered stop twice in the morning and currently carrying the second half short with a stop at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/4/12

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

Another nice trade in 2012. See EURUSD below. We stopped out of the last piece of the prior day’s trade for a win as well.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Stopped final piece of prior day’s long for about 75 pips at A. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop twice and stopped final piece at D for another 80 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 1/3/12

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

We ended the year on a positive note and started the year on a positive note. As I said with the calls last night, it’s best to get full size in early coming back from a 3-day weekend. Can’t even tell you how many times that has worked well. See EURUSD below for the winner which we are still holding, but also see the comments on GBPUSD.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and currently have stop under R3 and holding over:

GBPUSD:

Note how precisely on the move up the GBPUSD stopped at the green tri-star level at A:

Tradesight December 2011 Forex Results

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for November 2011

Number of trades: 33
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 48.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (around November 28)
Net pips: +75

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for December 2011

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 41.9%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row (last week of the year)
Net pips: +20

As is often the case, the market got really slow during the end of year Holidays. In reality, we adjusted for this by going to half size for the end of the year, but under our rules for counting pips in our direct trade call results, we don’t reflect that in these numbers. This is just a raw pip count for the month.

We won a lower-than-normal percentage of trades in the month, which, again, isn’t shocking. The net results were only 20 pips of gains, our second worst month of the year. Average daily ranges mostly dropped in the month, with the EURUSD’s 6-month average range dropping 6 pips from the start to end of December. That’s a pretty sharp drop off in a six month number. Several of the days were incredibly thin trading, and I actually didn’t count two winning trades in these results because they occurred on spikes that were virtually impossible to get a fill in, something we didn’t see at any other point in the year.

I will be putting out a year-end Forex summary soon that analyzes the market action for the year and summarizes our trading results for the whole twelve months, which were great. Check back soon.

On to 2012…

Forex Calls Recap for 12/30/11

Friday, December 30th, 2011

Winner to close out the year in the GBPUSD, see that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber counts (see GBPJPY); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index and that’s about it.

Look for new entries into the Blog and Messenger in the next week to sum up December and 2011 (separately) and comment on our Forex trading in general for the year.

Happy a Safe and Happy New Year’s. Thanks for being the best subscribers in the world, and we look forward to a lot of new things in 2012.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A. Under our order staggering rules taught in our courses, you probably stopped out of one leg of the three at B, hit first target at C, closed final piece at D to end the year on a positive note:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/29/11

Friday, December 30th, 2011

Another uninspired session with the EURUSD trading half of normal range. See that section below for trades that triggered, one loser and one winner.

New calls tonight and chat, but not expecting much. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and stopped at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/28/11

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

Dead session for the European session, but a big move in the US session that started just before I got back to my desk to take advantage. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again short at C, which would have been valid again and worked for 200 pips, but it happened about 15 minutes before I was back at my desk in the morning, unfortunately:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/27/11

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

Dead session for the European session, but a big move in the US session that started just before I got back to my desk to take advantage. See GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again short at C, which would have been valid again and worked for 200 pips, but it happened about 15 minutes before I was back at my desk in the morning, unfortunately:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/23/11

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Pretty much as expected, the market was boring as everyone is away. I was half size and one stop out and cancelled the rest in the morning before they triggered as I really didn’t expect it to work.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

No calls Sunday for the Christmas Holiday (banks closed Monday). We resume Monday evening.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday. Then we will look at the daily charts for all ten pairs with BOTH the Seeker and Comber separately, as we started to do next week. Then we’ll look at the US Dollar Index.

Have a Happy Holiday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, didn’t make it to the first target, stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/22/11

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Feels like everyone is out shopping and done, doesn’t it? Two stops on EURUSD, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls tonight but half size for me. No calls Sunday with the Holiday, back to it Monday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/11

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

Two winners, one went early, on a back and forth session that ended up right where it started.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second piece under entry at C. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, lowered stop and stopped at F:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/20/11

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Nice winner for 120 pips to the final exit in GBPUSD, see below. It’s rate that the R3 and S3 levels come into play, but they did here.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight as we rush toward Christmas.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long clean at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/19/11

Monday, December 19th, 2011

One early trigger and winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. Also, see EURUSD discussion:

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A, gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C, stopped above entry at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/16/11

Friday, December 16th, 2011

Stopped out of a GBPUSD trade for half size ahead of CPI and triple expiration, then cancelled everything early as the market rarely moves on triple expiration.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts (with a new twist, read on) below, then glance at the US Dollar Index at the bottom.

Due to the popularity of the Seeker/Comber tools, I’ve decided to add a component to the Sunday Forex reports. Typically, I show the daily charts just with the Seeker tool and we point out key macro-setups on the daily patterns. Now, I’m going to give two daily charts for each pair, one with the Seeker and one with the Comber, so we can discuss from that perspective.

On to the last two weeks of the year, which aren’t usually super-exciting.

New calls and chat Sunday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/15/11

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Two losers for the session in the EURUSD, see below, as the Forex pairs remain narrowly contained. Half size tonight ahead of the CPI and triple expiration tomorrow.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/14/11

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

Winner and a loser for the session, basically a wash on a dull night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at entry at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/13/11

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

A dead night ahead of the Fed, half size trades for me ahead of that news, and nothing happened after the Fed. We did close out the EURUSD short from the prior day for a 150 pip gain. See both sections below.

US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Stopped out of the final piece of the EURUSD from the prior day’s short over UBreak at A for 150 pips:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early at A (half size anyway ahead of Fed) and gave you a chance to take it later at B, but stopped either way. Triggered short at C and stopped. I noted in the Messenger not to put them back in with Fed ahead:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/12/11

Monday, December 12th, 2011

Nice winner for at least 150 pips on the EURUSD (still going) to start the week. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

Triggered short under the trigger line at A but gave you all the way until the European open at B to take. Hit first target at C and kept going, currently over 150 pips in the money with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/9/11

Sunday, December 11th, 2011

Winner and a loser to wrap up the week, and we ended up net nothing for the session again on the USD stuff.

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual, on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts for the new week (nothing to see) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Next week is triple expiration, so Friday will probably be slow even for Forex.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped at D. Both trades were valid again in the morning but neither triggered:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/8/11

Thursday, December 8th, 2011

Couple of winners on the session in GBPUSD, and we’re still short and in the money. See below. New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our Big Three each month, so half size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, might have stopped one leg but nothing more at B as it only went exactly 3 pips under the stop level. Hit first target at C and closed final piece under entry. Triggered short at D, hit first target a E, and still have the position short with a stop over the line at F:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/7/11

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Winner and a loser on the EURUSD, so a wash under these circumstances as the pairs mostly ended up back where they started again. US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but rate announcements out of Europe.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C and second half stopped. Triggered short at the second A and stopped at the second B, didn’t go enough for first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/6/11

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

What a dead night in all markets. See EURUSD below for our one call that triggered, but nothing really moved. Even the stock market set a four year record for light volume as the markets await the final solution out of Europe. New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Even more interesting was how it rallied 80 pips and stalled out EXACTLY at our UBreak level at B. The red lines on the charts are the most important support and resistance points in the market:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/5/11

Monday, December 5th, 2011

Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries.

EURUSD:

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Tradesight FOREX pair trend outlook

Short Intermediate Long
EUR/USD Up Down Down
USD/JPY Up Up Down
GBP/USD Up Down Down
USD/CHF Up Up Up
USD/CAD Down Up Up
AUD/USD Up Up Down
NZD/USD Up Down Down
GBP/JPY Up Down Down
EUR/JPY Up Down Down
GBP/CHF Up Up Up
Market commentary
Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries.

24 Hour EUR/USD
Triggered long at A and stopped at B. If you could get a fill on the spike in the morning, triggered long again at C, stopped at D:

Must be a subscriber to view the rest of the pairs.

Tradesight November 2011 Forex Results

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for October 2011

Number of trades: 43
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 53.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (around October 25)
Net pips: +600

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for November 2011

Number of trades: 33
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 48.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (around November 28)
Net pips: +75

It was a much tamer month. We had two Holidays plus the Friday after Thanksgiving, so less trading days and 10 less calls that triggered that October. There was a lot of back and forth and we essentially won half of the trades, which is fine and sometimes all you get. Having said that, we still netted out around 75 pips in the pure data including partials, stops, and final exits. Nothing like the last two months, but nothing to complain about. One more month and then we will put the entire year into perspective.

The ranges stayed very average, with almost none of the pairs changing their six-month average daily ranges by more than a couple of pips. AUDUSD was the only pair that posted a gain here of 7 pips, which is nice. Because of the wider ranges in the AUDUSD, I have been looking at it for trade setups as well, but haven’t seen a ton that I like. We also had some key Value Area plays during the month.

Have a great last month of the year and Happy Holidays to all!

On to December…

Forex Calls Recap for 12/2/11

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

Typical overnight ahead of the NFP data with no real action. That’s why we use half size. Nice winner after that for normal size. See GBPUSD below for all of it.

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Here’s the Index intraday from Thursday night/Friday with our market directional lines. Note that the key point was the change in the trend at A when two lines went green:

New calls and Chat Sunday as we wind down the year.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped ahead of the NFP data. Both of those were to be half size ahead of the data. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, closed final at E after hitting average daily range line with no time left for 70 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 12/1/11

Thursday, December 1st, 2011

Not a very exciting night. One winner and one loser, see below on GBPUSD.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

Unemployment and NFP in the morning, so half size, new calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, moved stop and stopped second half at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/30/11

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

One of those rare events where it’s unlikely you could get a fill in Forex as the market leapt on news that the global central banks were moving to help Europe. This caused a huge spike in the EURUSD. We did have the GBPUSD hit first target, but the EURUSD trade probably didn’t get you a fill. See both sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, but on major global news and a spike that was probably not something you could get executed in. If you did, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning, stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/29/11

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

Not as good as the prior night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening as usual.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES might have stopped you out at B, although it went only 2 pips under the stop level and if you followed our order staggering rules, you should have still had a piece. Hit first target at C if you had any left, but still got back to the stop out point at D overnight:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short very early at A (half size) and stopped at B:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/28/11

Monday, November 28th, 2011

One early stop out and then a couple of winners in the European session to bring us back from the Holiday. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below, including the perfect Value Area move on the GBPUSD. Classic.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B in the European session, hit first target at C, raised stop in the morning and stopped at D:

GBPUSD:

Look at this perfect Value Area play, bouncing above the VAH/R1 in the Asian session, then triggering short into the Value Area at A, hit the Value Area Low EXACTLY at B, and stopping the second half at C:

That’s definition of a Value Area move.

Forex Calls Recap for 11/22/11

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

Amazingly flat session on most of the pairs, although the GBPUSD was rude enough to trigger both of our trades and then wind up back where it started. See GBPUSD section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but Japan on Holiday (not that the JPY moves anymore) and we’re heading into the busiest travel day of the year.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/21/11

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Nice winner to start the week in the GBPUSD, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short clean at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C for about 80 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/18/11

Friday, November 18th, 2011

Nice winner to close out a somewhat boring week in all of the markets. See EURUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will start by looking at the action from Thursday night/Friday in all of our pairs, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (while there are no patterns of note, there is something to read about on the EURUSD below); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then look at the US Dollar Index (also something to see there).

Next week is a short week with the Thanksgiving holiday. There will be no calls Wednesday night for the holiday. Thursday night/Friday usually doesn’t amount to anything either.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you a perfect chance later to take it if you missed it at B, hit first target at C, raised stop in the morning and stopped at D for about 70 pips winner:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/17/11

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

Dull night with a stop out on EURUSD, see below. New calls tonight and Chat. Friday is options expiration, which can have some impact on Forex trading as well.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B. Couldn’t get a clean move, which is a bummer because it exactly hit our first target at C to the pip:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/16/11

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

Early movement meant that I had to make additional calls later in the evening, as the EURUSD short triggered very early. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below for main calls. It was a half size night anyway with the CPI data in the morning. Back to normal tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

The original call triggered too early at A, although it gave you until B to enter and worked to first target at C. I didn’t take that trade as it was too early and ahead of CPI. Meanwhile, the additional call triggered long at D, hit first target at E, and I still have part of the trade with a stop under the black line:

GBPUSD:

Additional call due to early movement triggered short at A and stopped (note that we had a 13 Seeker buy signal right when it triggered short…never a good combo):

Forex Calls Recap for 11/15/11

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

Better session with a clean trigger on the EURUSD that worked (and still going). See below. New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you all the way to B to enter without stopping, hit first target at C, and lowered stop over S1 at D, still holding the position:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/14/11

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Loser in the GBPUSD by a couple of pips, but it worked later. Looks like e-Signal had an issue with about an hour of data from MB as well, so there are gaps in the charts.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped by just a couple of pips at B before working great. If you were awake, could have taken again, but that doesn’t fall into our official timeline for trading:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/10/11

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Closed out the EURUSD trade from the prior day for 220 pips, but not much for new trades. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

Levels will be posted tonight since today’s ranges were fine if you want to trade, but there will be no calls due to the US Bank Holiday.

EURUSD:

So we lowered the stop from the prior day’s short to above the new UBreak. New short triggered at A and stopped. Unless you lowered the stop again oon the existing short, it stopped at B for 220 pips. Long triggered at C and stopped at D. Triggered again in the morning at E and closed at F when it didn’t reach the first target for end of session:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/9/11

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

There’s a nice session with a huge winner still running, currently over 220 pips. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop several times and currently have stop over black line at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/8/11

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

A winner and a loser in another not-so-stellar session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under entry at C (just barely):

Forex Calls Recap for 11/7/11

Monday, November 7th, 2011

None of the pairs really came close to trading average daily range. We had a winner and a loser, see EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped overnight at C. Added a call in the morning that triggered long at D and stopped:

Tradesight October 2011 Forex Results

Friday, November 4th, 2011

Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for September 2011

Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 60.2%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (all on September 28)
Net pips: +410

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for October 2011

Number of trades: 43
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 53.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (around October 25)
Net pips: +600

A great month again, even better than the last by net results, including several trades that netted out big multi-day gains. Nothing to complain about with the results. We fell into our target 50-60% winning trades slot and had only 4 in a row losers, which is fine.

The bigger thing to focus on here is the average daily ranges, which helps explain the net gains. EURUSD six month average daily range jumped 10 pips just in the month, from 165 to 175 pips a day. That’s a big jump for an average. GBPUSD was also up. The USDJPY remains a useless pair with most days under 40 pips. However, and this is the interesting part, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have moved up to 150 and 125, respectively, for average ranges, which means that they rival the GBPUSD and EURUSD. That means you might start seeing our main trade calls fall into those pairs sometimes as the setups are nice.

On to November…

Forex Calls Recap for 11/4/11

Friday, November 4th, 2011

Another winner (after a dead European session) to close out the week. See EURUSD below.

Time change in the US this weekend. Typically leads to a slow start first day as the technicals are off a bit. No rush Sunday.

New calls and Chat Sunday. As usual in the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss an educational topic.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

After a flat overnight, triggered short in the morning at A, hit first target at B for 45-50 pips, then lowered stop twice and stopped in the money at C to close the week:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/3/11

Friday, November 4th, 2011

No net movement and mixed results on the EURUSD for the session. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat tonight, but NFP in the morning so half size.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early at A but gave you all the way until B at the European open to enter without stopping, hit over 45 pips for first target at C, second half stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, second half stopped overnight. Re-entry in the morning on the short triggered at F and only went 40 pips to G, then stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/2/11

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Half size night ahead of the Fed, but a winner in the GBPUSD. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Back to normal size.

Here was the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

This was a half size night, but there was a short trigger on the EURUSD before the Asian session even started, which would have been quarter size under our rules if you even took it that early. Triggered short at A, came within five pips of first target, and stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A but gave you until the European session open at B to get in without ever stopping. Hit first target at C, closed final piece at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 11/1/11

Tuesday, November 1st, 2011

Another nice winner to officially close out the month of October. See GBPUSD below, which behaved perfectly technically. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but half size for me ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you all the way to B to take it, hit first target at C, lowered stop in the morning and stopped final piece at D for 100 pips:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/31/11

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Another nice winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat this evening. Other than the move we caught, it was a fairly slow session with the snow issues back East.

Here is the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and locked in about 80 pips to the final exit at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/28/11

Friday, October 28th, 2011

Closed out the EURUSD from the prior session for 250 pips, and then we had a loser and a winner in the GBPUSD. See both sections below. European sessions have been flat this week, hope that isn’t something regular now.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then glance at the US Dollar Index below.

Time change this weekend in Europe and then next weekend in the US.

EURUSD:

Stopped second half of prior day’s long under LBreak at A for 250 pip winner:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at B, hit first target at C, closed final at end of chart at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/27/11

Friday, October 28th, 2011

There’s a nice session. Even though the GBPUSD stopped for a small loss, the EURUSD worked great and is still going, almost 300 pips in the money as I write this. See both sections below.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening to wrap up the week.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, which looks like a blip now, still holding with a stop under the black line, way in the money:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A and was looking good to start but stopped for 20+ pips just barely at B. Note that it then turned up and ran straight to R1 at C…to the pip:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/26/11

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Another very dull overnight session, but a great move in the US session got us a clean winner for about 45 pips. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but first look at GDP for Q3 in the morning is a quarterly number that we trade half size ahead of.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Under our order staggering, the GBPUSD went only 1 pip above the trigger level above A on the chart, which might have triggered 1 piece of your trade (or not); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, closed second half on a lowered stop at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/25/11

Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

What a horrible session in every way! About the narrowest ranges I can recall in a day, and just a choppy mess that ignored anything technical. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Closed out the second half of the trade from the prior session for a 40 pip winner, but the new calls did nothing. Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B asnd stopped:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A overnight and stopped. If you were awake to put it back in in the morning, triggered at B and hit first target at C and reversed just as quickly:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/24/11

Monday, October 24th, 2011

Two winners in the session, both the same long trigger on the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Good triggers here. Triggered long at A early (so half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, second half stopped overnight. Note how the pair came back and addressed our entries again, with the VAH long entry being tested perfectly at C and D and the short entry tested perfectly at G (without triggering). Long triggered again in the morning at E, hit first target at F, still long with stop under red UBreak:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/21/11

Friday, October 21st, 2011

After a decent week, not really anything great here. See EURUSD below.

As usual for the Sunday report, we’ll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see right now).

Here’s the Index with market direction lines from Friday’s session:

New calls and Chat Sunday.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A and stopped at B ahead of European session. Triggered short at C and stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped under R1:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/20/11

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

Another profitable session with at least two (three if you re-took the short) winners in the EURUSD. See that section below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up the week.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second half over entry at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped second piece at F. The short trigger at G was late enough to fit taking it again, and it worked to the first target also if you did, but I didn’t put it in the Messenger:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/19/11

Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

Early trigger in the GBPUSD led to a winner, but no additional calls ahead of CPI. See GBPUSD section below.

New calls and Chat tonight.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long early (half size or even less as we were half size for the night ahead of CPI) at A, hit first target at B, stopped at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/18/11

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

A winner in the GBPUSD that triggered early, so I adjusted the stop after it hit the first target and made new calls in the EURUSD, one of which triggered and worked too. See both sections below.

New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three each month, so half-size.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:

EURUSD:

These calls were added ahead of the European session after the GBPUSD went early. Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and then lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C (could have gone lower overnight if you were awake):

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop and stopped second half at C. I canceled the short idea in favor of the EURUSD calls, but it ironically still triggered at D and hit first target at E:

Tradesight Twelve Month Forex Calls Track Record

Monday, October 17th, 2011

We recently posted the net results of our trade calls for September. At this point, we have officially posted monthly results for 12 months. Our forex service launched in 2004, and we have all of our trades archived, which are still available to subscribers, but they were not broken down monthly for net results.

You can now review every day of trading for the last year by clicking on this link and scrolling down as you go. These blog summaries don’t include our full forex reports for each day, but they recap our official trade calls that we gave for the session.

In addition, you can view the twelve separate one month summaries by clicking here and scrolling down as you go.

Today, I’ve put together net results of the service, and I wanted to make some comments about what it means for our methodology. Let’s start with a couple of different looks at the data.

For the year, we had 427 calls THAT triggered. That means we likely had about 700 official calls in total. Our win ratio on those 427 calls was 52.46%. That means we lost on 203 out of 427 calls. Our goal is a 50-60% win ratio, so we fell into that range, even if it was on the low side of the range.

We had only one month of negative results, and that was January 2010. Our win ratio there was only 34.29% and we lost 40 pips net.

The other 11 months were positive, and our win ratios in those months ranged from 42.5% through 70.0%.

The total net gain in pips accounting for stops, partials, and final exits was approximately 3446 pips. That’s a pretty solid number for a year.

Our system doesn’t rely on you magically catching one or two trades that accounted for most of those pips. In fact, there probably were no winners over 150 pips net (partial and final) in the year. But, it shows the importance of a net strategy of maintaining tight stops and letting the winners ride. Even though we only won 52.46% of our trades, the gains speak for themselves. And yes, you can have losing months. We had one. We also had three months where the net gains were barely over 100 pips, including August, which is typically the slowest month of the year. None of this analysis accounts for adjusting size to account for slow periods, holidays, or news. These are just the raw numbers.

When we get through October, November, and December, we will post net numbers for 2011, but it isn’t likely that the average overall will vary much. I think it demonstrates clearly that the Tradesight Forex system works and does not require a lot of time. This is not our active trading service that we teach separately where you need to monitor the market. This is our “set and forget” strategy where you get the calls in the evening, put them in, and check at key times of day to make adjustments. It requires about 30 minutes of your day, and I think it’s worth the time.

Forex Calls Recap for 10/17/11

Monday, October 17th, 2011

Couple of losers and a winner that didn’t do much net for us. See EURUSD section below. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, moved stop in the morning and barely stopped at E in the money:

Basically a wash for the session.

Tradesight September Forex Results

Friday, October 14th, 2011

Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.

Tradesight Pip Results for August 2011

Number of trades: 40
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 42.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (twice, no big deal)
Net pips: +145

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.

2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.

5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Pip Results for September 2011

Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 60.2%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (all on September 28)
Net pips: +410

So while August is usually the slowest month of the year (and was); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES September came roaring back quickly with a huge win ratio for us and a big net gain for the month. Hard to complain at all. This wasn’t about one or two trades that you had to catch to be successful. We nailed it pretty consistently and the winners were spread out over the month. Winning over 60% is always nice and leads to great things, and we did have several that went more than one session, which our strategy prefers.

Another positive sign was that the 6-month average ranges went up, which we like to see. The EURUSD, in particular, went from 155 pips a day average from the six months trailing September 1 to 165 pips by October 1. That’s a whopping 10 pip gain on the six month average…huge. Makes for much better trading. Meanwhile, the poor USDJPY is almost becoming useless as it’s average dropped from 78 to 70 during the month, with several days in the 25-35 pip range. Ouch.

Not much else to say. Another good month to tack onto what we’ve accomplished this year.

On to October…

Forex Calls Recap for 10/14/11

Friday, October 14th, 2011

A nothing night to end the week. See GBPUSD below for triggers.

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the trades from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see) below.

Here’s the Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and chat Sunday.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, went 40 pips which is just short of the 45-50 pip target, raised stop under UBreak and stopped tight at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/13/11

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

One winner but it took forever to trigger and play out in the EURUSD. Here is a look at the US Dollar Index with market directional lines:

New calls tonight and Chat.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target of 45-50 pips finally at B, stop should then go over entry and stop at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/12/11

Wednesday, October 12th, 2011

Very nice winner. See GBPUSD below, and still holding.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight, but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our big three each month.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B and much more, currently holding with a stop under the line:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/11/11

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

Pretty flat session with narrow range as the US Dollar ended up about where it started. Here’s the Index with our market directional lines:

EURUSD winner, see EURUSD section below.

New calls and Chat this evening, but they will be late again as I am still on vacation. Back to normal Wednesday evening.

EURUSD:

Part of your trade may have triggered long at A and stopped if you follow our order staggering rules. Short triggered at B, hit first target at C, and moved stop over entry in the morning and stopped:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/10/11

Monday, October 10th, 2011

US Bank Holiday turned into a big move. See EURUSD below.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stop should currently be under R2:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/4/11

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

A terrific session. We closed out a 100 pip winner from the prior day and had two more clean winners. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.

Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market direction lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

First, the second half of the short from the prior session stopped at A for 100 pips. Then, new trade triggered long at B, hit first target at C, note the specific use of VAH and R1 at D, raised stop under entry and stopped final piece at E:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, finally hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped final over entry at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 10/3/11

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

Couple of losers but a winner that is still in play in the EURUSD. New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered long overnight at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Put them back in in the morning, triggered short at C, hit first target at D (look at how precisely those levels were used); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and holding second half with a stop over S2:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/11

Wednesday, September 28th, 2011

Interesting session with lots of Seeker signals of use. I’m going to write up the US Dollar Index separately and post to the Blog tonight for discussion, but here it is with market direction lines and the Seeker:

Losers and a winner (still going) in the GBPUSD, see below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Rosh Hashanah holiday starts tomorrow, which can slow things down a bit.

GBPUSD:

Triggered short early at A (just barely, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them both back in the morning and long triggered at C and stopped, but the better trade was the short as I said last night. That triggered at D, went EXACTLY to the VAL target at E (and bottomed out on a Seeker 9-bar setup) and still holding the second half:

Profitable GBPUSD Seeker Sell Signal

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

We’ve had a lot of interest in our Seeker tool lately, so I wanted to take some time to walk through a 13-bar Signal on today’s GBPUSD 5-minute chart to show how the tool can be used.

We’ll start with a look at the GBPUSD around 6:00 am PST / 9:00 am EST this morning (charts are PST). It is currently 7 bars into the SETUP phase of the Seeker tool, which are the green numbers. Once you get to 9 (see recent course for the count methodology); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES the setup is complete and in place:

A few bars later, we get the 9, so the Setup is in force. The red count is the actual Seeker Countdown using a non-sequential 2-bar look back from close of the bar to low of the bar two bars back. Note that the red count begins as soon as the green 9 is complete:

Also, understand that the 4-bar look back count that is used to generate the 9-bar green setup phase can actually continue beyond the 9th bar. Although you don’t need those additional bars (i.e. they are not labeled 10, 11, etc.) for the red Countdown to begin, our tool draws a box around the setup count once the 4-bar look back is broken. So in this case, the Setup count methodology continued for four bars after the 9, and then the box is drawn:

Moving forward, we now see the red count underway. Remember that this count does NOT need to consecutive. Also the red line D is the Static Trendline of the setup count, which is the low of the range of that count:

Seeker signals are a test of patience. This one proceeds fairly quickly but still takes over an hour to get to the 10th red count. 3 to go at this point:

Finally, we get our 13 signal, which is a sell signal by default. You’ll also see that the pink risk line begins to draw after that. Basically, the trade is to sell short at the 13 (or if you want to be conservative, sell when you break the low of a 5-minute bar after the 13) with a stop over the risk level:

The risk line is F, and the GBPUSD starts to roll without touching it:

Over the next 30 minutes, it works nicely as we shuffle into the end of day:

Ends up being about a 50 pip winner at that point. Hard to complain, and very easy to follow if you have time to watch. Note that this tool works on all asset classes and all timeframes equally.

Forex Calls Recap for 9/27/11

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Ranges were up a bit and after two false starts, we ended up with a winner on the EURUSD. See below. New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

EURUSD:

Triggered long early (so half size) at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Note the precise use of the Pivot at C and D, which would have been our short if it broke. Triggered long at E, hit first target at F, raised stop in the morning and stopped at G:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/26/11

Monday, September 26th, 2011

Two winners to start the week, one on the EURUSD and one on the GBPUSD, see below. Interestingly, the US Dollar index ended up right where it started again anyway. Here’s the Index with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short early (so half size) at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop and stopped at C:

GBPUSD:

Triggered long new calls at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped (just barely) at C:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/23/11

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

Fairly dull session with a winner for us on the GBPUSD, see below. As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action on all pairs from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (not much new to see); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.

Speaking of, here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:

New calls and Chat Sunday evening.

GBPUSD:

Triggered long at A, gave you all the way to B to enter without stopping, hit first target at C, raised stop twice, note the bounce off VWAP at D, and closed for end of week at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/22/11

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

Just barely stopped on a trade that otherwise worked. See EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight to wrap a nice week.

Here’s the US Dollar Index with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A, gave you all the way to European session start to enter, but then right under B is a spike that goes about 25 pips against the entry, which is probably enough to stop out under our rules unless you really stagger your stops:

Unfortunate, because the trade worked great otherwise.

Forex Calls Recap for 9/20/11

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Interesting session again. Two winners in EURUSD, but one went so early that we don’t officially count it (before Asian session start). See below for both, and in the end, we went nowhere and ranges were narrow.

US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

New calls and Chat this evening.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A very early on news out of Europe, hit first target at B if you took it. The call that counts was the additional call made for the European session, which was a Value Area play and worked perfectly from the entry at C to the first target and Value Area High at D, raised stop in the morning and stopped final piece at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/19/11

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Awkward session with a big gap that never filled and took us away from the key Levels. We don’t see that very often. I made some calls anyway, but it wasn’t based on the usual types of setups. See EURUSD below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:

New calls and Chat tonight.

EURUSD:

Triggered short at A and most likely stopped you (went 25 pips against the Level); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES which is a bummer because it ultimately worked to the first target:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/16/11

Friday, September 16th, 2011

What a great setup and clean winner on the EURUSD to close the week. See below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

We resume with new calls and Chat Sunday as triple options expiration is behind us. As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss the US Dollar Index, which is interesting for sure.

EURUSD:

It’s possible that a leg of your trade triggered very early at A (although the whole trade at that time would have only been half size in the Asian session) and stopped. But the main run was a clean trigger at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and might have stopped at you D on the spike depending on how close to the level you put it. We will call it stopped there, or you just close it out later for a weekend:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/15/11

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

A half-size night ahead of the CPI, but a winner that is still in play on the EURUSD. See below.

New calls and Chat tonight, back to normal size. Here is the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Early trigger (so quarter size since it was a half size night for CPI) at A that barely triggered and stopped. Didn’t trigger again (never even went 2 pips under the entry Level on the bid though it bounced along it nicely). Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, raised stop in morning twice, currently holding with stop under R1, which it bounced off of at D:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/14/11

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

Interesting session that went just about nowhere in the end again. Two winners and a loser for the session. See GBPUSD and EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but we go half size ahead of CPI in the morning.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

I added calls in the EURUSD ahead of the European session because the GBPUSD short triggered early. Here, we triggered long at A and stopped at B:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, adjusted stop in the morning and stopped at C just over entry. Same trade re-entered in the morning, same result, short at D, partial at E, closed last piece at F:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/13/11

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

Not a very interesting night, but a learning trade in the GBPUSD based on order staggering, see below.

Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight.

GBPUSD:

Our system teaches an order staggering methodology where your entries and exits are spread out over several pips. Stops should be “20 pips plus spreads” based on the spreads for the pair that is being traded. In this case, the GBPUSD triggered short at A, went only “20 pips plus 1″ against at B, so might have stopped a leg of your trade if that was where you had the stop. Also could have re-entered for the European session as that potential stop occurred before midnight my time. Re-entry would have been C, or whatever pieces you still had on, hit first target at D, lowered stop over entry in the morning and stopped at E:

Forex Calls Recap for 9/12/11

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Loser and a winner in the GBPUSD, basically a wash in a narrow session. See GBPUSD section below.

New calls and Chat tonight. Here’s the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:

GBPUSD:

Triggered short at A, stopped at B. Triggered short again in the morning at C, closed at D as it hadn’t stopped or hit first target by end of session:

Tradesight August Forex Results

Sunday, September 11th, 2011