Posts Tagged ‘es’

Futures Calls Recap for 6/17/13

Monday, June 17th, 2013

A winner on the ES in the afternoon and that was it as we had another 1.5 billion NASDAQ share trading session, this time with a gap up.

Net ticks: +9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

After adjusting the entry a few times as the market drifted higher in the morning after a gap up, we finally triggered short after lunch at A at 1634.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, adjusted the stop 3 times, and stopped the final piece at 1631.50 at B for 12 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/13/13

Thursday, June 13th, 2013

Couple of nice setups in the ES and NQ stopped out once and I chose not to re-enter due to extremely light market volume from quarterly options roll. They ended up re-triggering and working for huge gains, of course. See both sections below.

We are on the U3 contracts effective now.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1617.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered long at A at 2934.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/12/13

Wednesday, June 12th, 2013

Very light volume in the markets most of the session, although volume ticked up late and got us to 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES section for review.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1632.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. He didn’t put it back in, which is unfortunate because it turned around and worked exactly as it should have in the first place, all the way across the Value Area:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/11/13

Tuesday, June 11th, 2013

Nothing triggered from the calls after a big gap down session that actually tried to fill the gaps (didn’t quite get there) and then rolled to the VWAP for the afternoon on light volume of 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/10/13

Monday, June 10th, 2013

A winner in the ES to start the week on a light volume, narrow-ranged session.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1644.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half for 5 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/6/13

Thursday, June 6th, 2013

Two calls, one triggered, and we got a nice winner on the ES. See that section below. Volume lightened up and was only 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +13.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1605.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop repeatedly and stopped second half 21 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/4/13

Tuesday, June 4th, 2013

Same issue as the prior session, although Tuesday saw less volume in the markets (1.7 billion NASDAQ shares). We had a nice setup that swept once and stopped, then worked a little the second time. See ES below.

Net ticks: -1 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1640.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped at the same levels after we lowered the stop twice:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/3/13

Monday, June 3rd, 2013

Mark’s opening range call stopped once and worked the second time for about a wash. See the ES section below. Volume was good but the market was very choppy. We really didn’t address any of the Levels on the ES or NQ properly.

Net ticks: -1 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1630.25, stopped for 7 ticks, then he put it right back in and it worked to the first target for 6 ticks and stopped the final leg also at that price:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/30/13

Thursday, May 30th, 2013

Our NQ triggered heading into lunch, and after giving it a fair shot, Mark closed it down around the entry, which ended up being a good thing. Nothing else triggered. See that section below.

Net ticks: -1 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s call triggered long at 3016.50 at A, missed first target by a tick, and after another 20 minutes or so, Mark closed it under the entry by a tick heading into lunch:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/28/13

Tuesday, May 28th, 2013

Big gap days are not usually much fun. The markets gapped up big, with the ES clearing the R2 level and traded even higher in early action. We then formed an inverted cup and handle, which finally broke over lunch, sweeping us on one trade before it worked a little on the second entry. Ultimately, we filled the gap for the session in the afternoon. See ES below.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1664.00 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again shortly after, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped second half over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/26/13

Friday, May 24th, 2013

A winner on the ES to close out the week in what was a slow session as expected heading into the long weekend. Volume closed at 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares. We resume Monday.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at 1642.50 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/23/13

Thursday, May 23rd, 2013

Couple of winners on the ES and NQ for the session. See those sections below. The markets gapped down big and eventually rallied back up most of the way on volume of 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. There was a great YM Value Area setup (check below how it stopped right at VAL to the tick) but it never triggered.

Net ticks: +8 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1641.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s call triggered long at 2982.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half 5 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/22/13

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

Net ticks: +2 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1672.25 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. This was actually not the price I meant to enter, which was under the VAH after it set that level. Apologies:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s long triggered at A at 3038.00, hit first target, he adjusted the stop three times and stopped the final piece at 3044.00 at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/15/13

Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

Big winner in the ES for the session after what seemed like a ridiculously slow first hour (although it set the breakout level several times).

Net ticks: +20 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

After hitting the UBreak/VAH several times and looking frozen for the first hour, our call triggered long at A at 1648.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I raised the stop several times until the final exit for 34 ticks at 1657.00 at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/14/13

Tuesday, May 14th, 2013

A gap and run session that just kept going and never set any levels, then gave us Comber sell signals, and then couldn’t even retrace to the VWAP. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1643.00 and stopped for 7 ticks, did not re-enter:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2988.50 and stopped for 7 ticks, did not re-enter:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/13/13

Monday, May 13th, 2013

Our call did not trigger on a light-volume Monday with a lack of range. We retraced to the VWAP repeatedly.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Note the 9-bar setup against the UBreak was the stall out point over lunch:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/10/13

Friday, May 10th, 2013

A boring session with a small winner that only hit the first target and a late-day trigger. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares, and the ES stuck in a 6 point range for most of the session. See ES section below for the two recaps.

Net ticks: +3.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

The short triggered at A at 1622.75, hit first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry. The long triggered in the last half hour at B at 1629.25 and ended up closing for a tick given the time of day:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/9/13

Thursday, May 9th, 2013

A nice call swept and stopped once before working. Today was much slower than the prior two days in the market, although volume was back up to 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. We did see a drop late in the session on rumors about Bernanke.

Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1527 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece at 1525.75 at C:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/8/13

Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

A clean, single-direction move in the markets to the upside on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares gave us a nice winner for the session. See ES below.

Net ticks: +9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1621.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and after raising the stop 4 times, stopped 12 ticks in the money at 1624.75 at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/7/13

Tuesday, May 7th, 2013

Volume was much better early, although it really drifted off in the second half and only closed at 1.6 billion shares on the NASDAQ. We had a winner on the ES, see that below.

Net ticks: +3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1617.75, hit the first target for 6 ticks but didn’t get through so not everyone would have been filled. Because we had the gap below and were stalling out at R2, I closed at 1618.50. There was also a nice setup falling back under UBreak for the gap fill:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/6/13

Monday, May 6th, 2013

A loser on the NQ and a small winner on the ES. See both sections below.

This Friday, I will have a longer post to make about the current state of futures and how to handle what we’re seeing in this market with volume low. Today’s NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion shares, and the ES range was only 6 points.

Based on the results of the survey from the weekend (and thanks to those that filled it in), I’m going to get a little more detailed about the futures trading environment.

Net ticks: -5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered long at A, never stopped over lunch, finally headed up. It technically never traded at the first target, but I posted at B when I took the partial and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Nice setup that set the Break level early, Mark’s call triggered long at A but triggered on no volume and didn’t work. Technically, it worked on the retrigger, but because of the volume issues early, Mark called off taking it again:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/2/13

Thursday, May 2nd, 2013

One small winner that took forever and eventually would have been a big winner but took too long and stopped out the second half first. The market gapped up and never looked back, especially once it broke the UPT on the ES. Volume was 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Well, that’s pretty much an example of what’s wrong with the market recently. The ES call triggered long at A at 1586.50, hit first target for 6 ticks at B, which took long enough, and then we adjusted the stop on the second half under the entry and it stopped after another 30 minutes, and then finally shot up like we would have wanted in the first place and hit R2:

VWAP Discussion and ES and NFLX Examples

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is a powerful tool for traders, but you have to understand the implications of what it means to completely grasp it’s use. In the weeks ahead, we will be focusing several articles on the VWAP and how it can be a useful tool in a variety of ways.

If you don’t know, the VWAP ends up operating like a moving average, but it does so by weighting the price and size of each trade.

So for example, let’s say that we have three prices: 40, 41, and 42. An average of those three would be calculated by adding them up and dividing by 3. That would give you (40 + 41 + 42 = 123) / 3 = 41. A moving average keeps adding data in the form of price and dividing equally by the number of data points.

A VWAP, on the other hand, takes two pieces of information for each price into account before doing the math. It takes the price AND the number of shares for that print. So, now let’s say that we have three data points, which is 100 shares traded at 40, 200 shares traded at 41, and 900 shares traded at 42. Note that this is the same 3 prices that we had when calculating the average price example, but now we have size to go with each. What the VWAP does is take each price times size and divide by the total size.

So, we get:

40 x 100 = 4,000
41 x 200 = 8,200
42 x 900 = 37,800

Add those totals up (50,000) and divide by the total number of shares (1200) and you get 41.67, the VWAP. See how the number is far more skewed toward 42, which is where the much bigger print occurred?

So, what do we do with this?

Institutional traders would prefer to buy below the VWAP and sell above the VWAP. Why? Because it means that they got a better price buying or selling their big block of stock for the day than the average trader. A lot of times, that means that if a stock has been moving down and reverses to the upside, it will stall out right at the VWAP. Who wants to be the guy paying more than the average of everyone else? Of course, at some point, someone often does, but that in itself is confirmation that the dynamics of the stock have shifted for the session.

So, let’s take a look at today’s (Wednesday, May 1, 2013) action in the ES (S&P e-mini futures):

We gapped down for the session at A. The purple line is the VWAP of the day as we go along, starting with the open. Note that we opened right where the VWAP had been at the close of the prior session (even though the price late in the day had been much higher).

The market trades flat for the first 30-40 minutes and finally breaks lower on a pair of bad economic numbers. It doesn’t go far on the data, and in fact, after just 15 minutes, seems to be stalling. Keep in mind that this is an FOMC announcement day, which usually means that the market is slow early. So as the small move down fails and the market starts to head up, the ES comes back to the VWAP at B. It then gets blue to the VWAP for hours, really not leaving it either way.

Over lunch, the market starts to drop at C ahead of the Fed announcement. The sellers are banking on something pushing the market lower, and this time the move is bigger. The announcement comes out, and nothing surprisingly negative is in it. Those that were selling ahead of the announcement start to buy back, and it takes the ES once again back to the VWAP at D. Note that this time, the ES uses the VWAP very precisely as resistance and can’t close above it on two attempts. No one wants to pay over that price, and there is nothing compelling to make them.

Do individual stocks care about the VWAP? Sure, let’s take one of the current market trading favorites, NFLX. This stock sold off sharply today in the morning and spent most of the morning down quite a bit. As it starts to rise after the Fed, does any big trader want to be the first to pay over the VWAP? Let’s have a look:

Clearly not.

The VWAP has many terrific uses, but these two charts alone give you a starting point about its validity.

Futures Calls Recap for 5/1/13

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

Another nice setup, another trigger and fail. See ES below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1589.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. Couldn’t break the Pivot and fill the gap inside the Value Area:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/30/13

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

See ES and NQ’s below to close out the month. NASDAQ volume was strong at 1.8 billion shares, but the futures trading continues to be choppy, and we had one trigger on news. The one thing that did work yet again is that the Comber called the high of the day on the ES midday. See below.

Net ticks: -21 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Note the Comber 13 was the top out point midday.

Mark’s long triggered over lunch right at the 13 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Meanwhile, my short ended up triggering right before the Consumer Confidence number at A at 2856.00 and stopped on the news (you want to take less size or pass in the minutes before a big news item). Despite the fact that the number beat by a lot, the trade triggered again a few minutes later, came within a 1/4 point of the first target, and stopped. This is the 5th time this month that the NQ, which we use half points as ticks on, has come within a quarter point of the target. Unreal:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/29/13

Monday, April 29th, 2013

Mark’s call on the ES triggered long and he finally closed at even after an hour of no movement (it eventually would have worked). NASDAQ volume was horrible at only 1.3 billion shares. Three other calls did not trigger.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1586.50, and he closed it at the same price after almost an hour:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/26/13

Friday, April 26th, 2013

To show you how bad things are in futures right now, we have a perfect setup that combines essentially the Value Area, the opening range, and the gap fill and can’t even cover the 6 ticks to get there on a Friday. Unreal. See ES below. We ended up trying again in the afternoon and failed, then slipped back to the VWAP on 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Nice setup triggered at A at 1580.50, couldn’t even reach the 6 ticks up to the gap fill. Note that the Comber gave a 13 buy signal at the low:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/25/13

Thursday, April 25th, 2013

A loser on the ES, two small winners on the NQ. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -0.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1577.50 and stopped:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s long triggered at A at 2849.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry. My short triggered at B at 2844.00, and it was having trouble getting through the combination of the UPT, UBreak, and a TDST, so I closed for 4 ticks at 2842.00:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/24/13

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

A flat session after a flat opening. The ES stuck in just 7 points of range on 1.65 billion NASDAQ shares, and that was with AAPL trading about 20 million more than usual.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1572.75, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/23/13

Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013

Interesting use of a “flash crash” after a boring start to the session. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +11 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1567.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped on lowered stop at 1564.25 for 11 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 2816.50, also on the “AP Tweet Flash Crash” and hit first target for 6 ticks. Second half stopped over entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/22/13

Monday, April 22nd, 2013

Another awkward session for futures. Our ES call worked, although just enough to hit the first target initially. Then a similar setup on the NQ swept twice before working. See both sections below for a deeper recap.

Net ticks: -9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1550.25 at A and hit first target for 6 ticks. It then stopped the second half over the entry before proceeding to fill the gap and cross the Value Area:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2778.00 and stopped initially. Triggered again 5 minutes later and stopped again. Triggered again and hit first target for 6 ticks, then stopped the second half over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/19/13

Saturday, April 20th, 2013

A winner to start and then a double stop out on the ER (which worked after that). See both sections below.

Net ticks: -13.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1538.00, hit first target for six ticks, but couldn’t even reach down to fill the gap and stopped second half over the entry:

ER:

Triggered long at A at 903.30 and stopped for 8 ticks. Put it back in and it triggered ten minutes later again and stopped. Worked after that:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/18/13

Thursday, April 18th, 2013

What is with the colors? It will all make sense eventually. For now, just understand that at Tradesight moving forward, futures charts will have a blue right and bottom scale background (Forex will be green and stocks will be black).

A nice winner early in the ES and then a loser in the NQ that just missed the first target by a half tick (0.25). See both sections below.

Net ticks: -1 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1538.75 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final piece at the same 6 tick gain on a lowered stop:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short under LPT in the afternoon at A at 2731.00. First target was 2728.00, and it hit 2728.25 before reversing back to the stop inside of a minute:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/17/13

Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

A winner on the ER and a loser on the ES created a wash. See both below. Market volume picked up, but the afternoon action was dead flat, and that’s when the ES triggered.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Afternoon breakout triggered long at A at 1549.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

ER:

Triggered short under LPT at 909.40 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks and stopped second half 6 ticks in the money. After a bounce, the trade really worked, giving the move that I had originally hoped for:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/16/13

Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

Another light volume day in the markets with 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares traded. We had an initial stop out (swept the entry) before two winners. See ES below.

Net ticks: +4 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

The short triggered at A at 1556.50 and stopped, then triggered again at B, hit the first target, stalled at the Pivot, and stopped over the entry for the second half. The long triggered at 1563.00 at C, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I raised the stop a few times and finally stopped under the R1 level at D for 11 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/12/13

Friday, April 12th, 2013

A loser on the ES and a winner on the NQ as volume dropped off sharply again to only 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares (a Friday, plus everyone watching the Masters).

Net ticks: +2 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at 1581.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. He did not re-enter:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at 2840.50 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped the second half 12 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/10/13

Wednesday, April 10th, 2013

Volume picked up a bit, and the market gapped up and kept going early, then flattened out the rest of the session. See the ES below. NASDAQ volume did get to almost 1.7 billion shares, a big improvement over Monday and Tuesday.

Net ticks: -8 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

We got a Comber 13 sell signal on the ES and used it for a short entry at A at 1578.25, which stopped for 8 ticks. Never violated the risk line, but that was too much risk to show on a 15-minute timeframe. Meanwhile, we then got a 13 sell signal on the 5-minute chart below, which again was the high of the session (second day in a row), but we didn’t roll over much:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/9/13

Tuesday, April 9th, 2013

All charts for all asset classes in our reports have been shifted to eSignal 11 screenshots effective today. There is a slightly different (but cleaner) look to these charts. They also show as EST.

Not much market volume again. Took an ES short on a Comber sell signal that didn’t work, but we will discuss below. Volume was horrible again.

Net ticks: ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Note that when we make calls in the Messenger, we try to keep them to calls based on the Levels with 6 ticks of risk (plus one for the spread). We don’t typically make calls based on the Comber and Seeker signals because they often require a bit more finesse when it comes to the entry point (not usually a “fixed” number) and a stop (should go over the “risk” level). In this case, since volume was so bad and there wasn’t anything else to call, I made a call looking to roll over after the Comber 13 sell signal. It was a short at 1565.50. That triggered at A and stopped out for the 7 ticks, but as you can see on the chart, it used the risk line perfectly and never stopped out if you used that, which is really the stop you should use on any Comber/Seeker call:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/8/13

Monday, April 8th, 2013

One trigger on the ES. The other calls didn’t trigger. See that section below. Market volume dropped to its lowest yet, barely clearing 1 billion NASDAQ shares in the last 40 minutes.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1544.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/5/13

Friday, April 5th, 2013

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1539.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at the same price at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry just barely over lunch while retesting the VWAP:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/4/13

Thursday, April 4th, 2013

One call that worked, one that didn’t trigger. See ES below. The volume dropped off sharply in the markets again, back down to 1.35 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1555.25, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry. Note that the UPT/Value Area High was the high at B and the low was the LBreak to the tick:

Futures Calls Recap for 4/1/13

Monday, April 1st, 2013

No calls as the rest of the world was on Holiday and volume was therefore extremely light at only 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares. We resume Tuesday.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/28/13

Saturday, March 30th, 2013

One winner on another 1.4 billion share NASDAQ session to close out the week, month, and quarter. Have a good long weekend and then we’re back to work.

Net ticks: +3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1559.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half at the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/27/13

Thursday, March 28th, 2013

We got the day that we expected in terms of volume. The market gapped down and took all day to get back to even, with the S&P closing down less than a point, and NASDAQ hitting only 1.3 billion. A winner and a loser on the ES, but I was low size due to the situation (and will be tomorrow).

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

The nice setup into the Value Area over the LPT triggered long at A, but swept initially, then went again at B, hit first target for six ticks, inched higher to exactly the Value Area High at C, and then stopped the second half under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/26/13

Tuesday, March 26th, 2013

A trigger on news on the ES (see below), and then a later better trigger that didn’t work. Market volume, after improving yesterday, dropped quite a bit Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well for Wednesday and Thursday as we wind up the quarter and head into the long weekend.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at 1555.25, although the first trigger was on news (Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales) at A at 10:00 am EST. Generally don’t want to enter a trade on news, but the call was made 4 minutes before, so we will count it. Stopped, then triggered again 10 minutes later and stopped again. Ended up in a useless range with no volume:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/25/13

Monday, March 25th, 2013

Mark had a nice winner on the ES for the session as we finally got some better range. Volume was 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares, which is also a slight improvement from last week.

Net ticks: +8.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1553.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop several times and stopped finally at 1551 at A:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/21/13

Friday, March 22nd, 2013

The market continues to struggle in narrow range on little volume as things seems to take twice as long to happen. The ES gapped down, made an attempt to fill the gap, then dropped down to fill the gap from yesterday, then came back up to the current gap to the tick. See that section below.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1546.50 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and that was it. Almost took the short under the S2, but that also only went 6 ticks (to fill the gap from yesterday) before we reversed back up to fill the new gap:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/20/13

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

A loser and a winner on the flattest day we’ve seen yet. Holy smokes was that brutal until a bit after the Fed announcement. At one point, I couldn’t even see the VWAP or market directional lines on my charts because it was so flat!

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1550.50 for what should have been an easy slip toward the gap fill and stopped after a long 30 minutes of nothing. Mark’s call triggered long at B at 1553.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, then stopped second half under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/18/13

Monday, March 18th, 2013

We had a big gap down and no volume (1.4 billion NASDAQ shares total). The market recovered from the start. Called one ES trade that stopped, but didn’t re-enter due to market volume (the re-trigger worked). See ES below. We continue to hold our futures trading to limit calls as the market is just not showing the volume.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1546.00 and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/15/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

I was on the road for the session. Mark had one call, see ES below. There was a nice NQ setup too.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1552.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. He called off the retrigger, which worked nicely, as gaps tend to fill more frequently on Fridays. The gap filled also, and note that the Value Area High was the high of the session:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/14/13

Friday, March 15th, 2013

A trigger on the ES and a few on the NQ, one of which unfortunately stopped before it worked again. Overall, another narrow session, not even half of average daily range, and we really didn’t see an options unraveling move for triple expiration, which is unusual but par for the last two weeks. Volume was only 1.45 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: -6 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1553.00, missed the first target by a tick and stopped for 6 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark had a call and I had a call, which even confused me as I thought I had typo’d Mark’s call. So, since they were both their own calls, here we go.

Mark’s triggered short at 2801.50 at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the remaining at 2799.50. Mine was under the opening bar low and triggered short at C at 2800.50, hit first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half at 2799.50:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/12/13

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

A better day, but one false start again and an extremely flat opening hour. The ES filled the gap and then rolled hard. See that section below for the recap of the trades. Volume was 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares again.

Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Swept the trigger short at A at 1547.25, and I said to take a retrigger. Triggered long at B at 1549.75 and filled the gap, closed it for four ticks winner when the market seemed to be stalling at the gap fill after some time. Triggered short again at C (same short trigger), hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped in the money at 1545.00 at D:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/11/13

Monday, March 11th, 2013

Another day of light volume, bad range, and frankly just narrow bars in the futures. One call on the ES stopped and we didn’t do any more. It did set the UPT and then break it and work, but action was just too tame.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1542.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/8/13

Friday, March 8th, 2013

The Levels were very tightly spaced because of how flat Thursday was. We gapped up early and filled the gap quickly without setting any of the Levels, and you knew it wasn’t going to turn into much else after that. I posted one trade because the ES set the R2, but listed it as half size because I wasn’t expecting much. See that section below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1543.00 and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/7/13

Thursday, March 7th, 2013

We always come into the quarterly contract roll date with little expectations. However, we did have enough of a gap and an early setup to give one trade a try. In the end, the market did what it usually does on options contract roll day…nothing at all. Market volume was a horrible 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares to go with it.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

The opening bar set the UPT from above, so we took the short at A at 1541.75 breaking under that for the gap, but nothing happened. No re-entry as the market was clearly dead:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/6/13

Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

Well, another joke of a session with only 6 points of range on the ES on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares. Several triggers on the ES and YM, but both had a stop out before they ended up working. Wasn’t much to bother with after that as we spent the rest of the session near the VWAP. The ES gap did NOT fill (by a tick, of course).

Net ticks: -12 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1542.00, came within a tick of the first target but then reversed and stopped for 7 ticks (the move set the VAH). Second was the Value Area Plays, triggered short at B at 1540.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, I was late adjusting the stop (should have been over entry), so stop went over 1541.00:

YM:

Mark’s call was a nice Value Area setup after the YM bounced off of it early in the session. Triggered short (hit the entry) at A and stopped for 11 ticks. Re-triggered at B and hit first target for 10 ticks, but again, reversed right back up and stopped over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/5/13

Tuesday, March 5th, 2013

Nice setup on the ES stopped once, then triggered on news, which is never what we want to see. It was a lazy day overall, although volume hit 1.7 billion on the NASDAQ. See ES below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1536.50 after setting the R2 level, but stopped exactly to the tick for 7 ticks loss. I stated it was valid again, but it triggered in the next bar on the better than expected ISM data and faded back. When it hadn’t done anything for ten minutes, I closed it at the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/4/13

Monday, March 4th, 2013

A trade that we closed at the entry due to lack of market interest and volume, and that was it. See the ES section below.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A, but closed at B after 45 minutes of the market doing nothing over lunch on no volume. There was just no reason to trade or stick with it. The better entry would have been the long over UBreak at C, but since volume was so poor, we didn’t call it:

Futures Calls Recap for 3/1/13

Friday, March 1st, 2013

Nice winner to start the month in the ES. See that section below.

Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1503.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop a few times and stopped final at 1508.25 for 19 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/28/13

Thursday, February 28th, 2013

A day where Rich and I were plagued with Internet issues and volume was back up to 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares, but the market was very flat all morning, then drifted higher over lunch, then came back to the VWAP. The biggest bars of the day were the last two, where we sold off.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1520.00 and stopped (note that it triggered right on a Comber 13 sell). It based right under the UBreak again during lunch and we discussed taking it again, which worked, but my Internet was down:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/26/13

Tuesday, February 26th, 2013

Our Levels were spaced pretty wide because of the big range on Monday, so it took a while to get any setups, and we were heading into lunch when it did trigger. I went half size due to time of day, but we count the results equally here. See ES below. NASDAQ volume was only 1.7 billion shares.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at 1484.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/25/13

Monday, February 25th, 2013

Couple of winning trades on the ES that were called officially. See that section below. Also, note the Value Area play on the NQ.

Net ticks: +11 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered long at 1523.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry. Mark’s short triggered at B at 1518.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop twice and stopped at 1515.75 at C. There was also a nice Value Area setup here that worked that we discussed in the Trading Lab as it happened:

Futures Calls Recap for 02/22/13

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

A winner and a loser as the market traded very light volume and drifted most of the session again. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: -1 tick.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1503.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My call triggered short at A at 2724 and hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped at the same number 6 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/20/13

Wednesday, February 20th, 2013

Two winners, but a stop out first on one of them. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: +0.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at 1524.75 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece at 1523.75 at C for 4 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My call triggered short at A at 2777.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/15/13

Tuesday, February 19th, 2013

A dull session that gapped up, left the gap behind, and saw half of the day’s range covered in 10 minutes around the 20-minute mark of the session. See ES below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s ES call triggered long at 1525.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/14/13

Thursday, February 14th, 2013

Same problem as Wednesday. A very nice setup triggered and stopped once before triggering again and working. See ES below. Friday is options expiration heading into a long weekend, so we may not have any futures calls if the action looks flat early.

Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1515.50 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered long again 10 minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he revised the stop twice and stopped 5 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/13/13

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013

A nice setup on the ES for the gap fill that failed early, and then triggered again after the first hour for options unraveling and worked, so basically a wash.

Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1518.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final half at C at 1516.75:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/7/13

Thursday, February 7th, 2013

Volume is back. The NASDAQ traded 1.9 billion shares again, and we had another nice day in futures. Could have been a perfect week if the ER had gone an extra tick yesterday. See the ES section below for today’s recap.

Net ticks: +16.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Set the Pivot and then triggered short at 1505.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and then lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at 1498.25 for 27 ticks at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/6/13

Wednesday, February 6th, 2013

One trade that just missed the first target by a tick and then stopped (before working), and one trade that worked, leads to almost a wash for the session. See ES and ER sections below.

Net ticks: -2 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1505.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed out the final piece at B at 1507.50 near the Value Area High over lunch:

ER:

Triggered long at A at 902.40 and stopped for 9 ticks after just missing the first target by a tick:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/5/13

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

A clean winner on the ES for the session and nothing else. See that section below.

Net ticks: +6 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1502.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half at the same 6 tick gain:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/4/13

Tuesday, February 5th, 2013

A loser on the ES and a big winner on the NQ to start the week. See both sections below.

Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1501.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2739.50, hit first target for 6 ticks and then accelerated sharply to the downside. Moved stop over S2 and stopped at B for 33 ticks on second half:

Futures Calls Recap for 2/1/13

Friday, February 1st, 2013

One winner to start the month, which will hopefully be a better month than January turned out to be. Volume was a solid 2 billion NASDAQ shares, and we had a clean (though limited) winner in the ES. See that section below. Also, note the perfect Value Area play on the QM oil contract.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1504.25 over R2, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under entry:

QM:

Note the clean Value Area play from A to B:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/31/13

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

None of the calls triggered in a market that ended up with end of month behavior as expected, although NASDAQ volume was a solid 2.1 billion shares. There was a nice setup in the market late on the long side that didn’t materialize.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/29/13

Tuesday, January 29th, 2013

A winner and a loser on the ES in another session that saw narrow action for the first hour, although the broad market broke out over lunch despite the Fed meeting. NASDAQ volume was 1.9 billion shares.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1496.25, hit first target for 6 ticks at VAH, stopped second half under entry. Triggered short at B at 1493.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. No re-entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/23/13

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

Two stop outs on the ES as we continue through earnings season and a lot of dull activity (until the last part of the day when the rumors fly). See ES below. NASDAQ volume was 1.7 billion shares.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1486.50 and stopped, that would have worked on a retrigger but the range was too narrow at the time. Mark’s call triggered short into the Value Area at B at 1484.75 and stopped for 7 ticks, would have been valid again but never triggered:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/22/13

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

One stop out on a clean Value Area setup on the ES, and that was it to start the short week. Volume was decent earely but ended up around the usual 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. The futures spiked in the minutes after the close on some earnings.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call was a nice setup with the Pivot and Value Area High lined up at the same place. Triggered short under that at A at 1476.50 and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/17/13

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

A winner on the ER and a loser on the ES that washed exactly. See both sections below. Market volume was 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares again, and we ended up with a drift higher even though the initial direction for the options unraveling move looked lower. We also left a gap behind.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1470.75 and stopped for 7 ticks:

ER:

Triggered long at A at 884.30, hit first target for 7 ticks and stopped at the same in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/16/13

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

One winner, see ES below, on a day that we did NOT get the options unraveling move in the markets that we anted. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares.

Net ticks: +4 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1464.25, moved up a bit, and 30 minutes later it was stuck at the gap fill, so I did something unusual, which was to just close it out for 4 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/15/13

Tuesday, January 15th, 2013

One loss on the ES on a day with a gap and a mixed market as AAPL dragged down the NASDAQ but everything else did OK. Volume was 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1462.75 and stopped just barely for 7 ticks, then worked later exactly across the Value Area:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/14/13

Monday, January 14th, 2013

A loser on the ES and a winner on the NQ for the session. See both sections below as the market had a fairly flat session trading 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: -2 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1461.50 and stopped for 7 ticks (missed first target by a tick):

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My long triggered at A at 2728.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second piece 4 ticks in the money. The trade triggered on the DELL news:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/11/13

Saturday, January 12th, 2013

A horrible session on light volume covering only 5 points of ES range, but Mark pulled out a small winner in the morning. See ES below.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1465.00, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Futures Call Recap for 1/10/13

Saturday, January 12th, 2013

ES call triggered twice, stopped once and worked the other. See below.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s ES call triggered short at A at 1457.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. It retriggered at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/9/13

Wednesday, January 9th, 2013

Two triggers, two winners for the session. See ES and ER sections below.

Net ticks: +11.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at 1457.25 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped under the entry:

ER:

My long triggered at 875.90 over R1 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks, adjusted the stop twice and stopped at 876.90 for 10 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/8/13

Tuesday, January 8th, 2013

A nice setup against the Pivot that failed early, but a nice breakdown after that that worked, and that established the range for the day for the market. See ES section below.

Net ticks: +1 tick.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1455.00 and stopped. It spent 20 minutes above the trigger, so I don’t take that again. Mark’s call triggered short under LBreak at B at 1450.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and adjusted the stop twice and stopped 10 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/7/13

Monday, January 7th, 2013

Net ticks: -18.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1452.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. His long triggered at B at 1455.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. He took both again, with the long triggering at C and stopping again. The short triggered at D, finally hit a first target for 6 ticks, and stopped over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/4/13

Friday, January 4th, 2013

A trigger and a stop out on the ES. See that section below. This was a very slow trading session with little consistent movement, although NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion in the end. Always interesting when the NQ plays out the whole day under the Value Area, while the ES is mostly above it.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1459.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/3/13

Thursday, January 3rd, 2013

Four triggered total, two on the NQ and two on the ES, both swept their entries exactly the first time and worked the second late in the session. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A under the trigger at 1452.75 and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered in the afternoon at B and I closed for 4 ticks as it was getting too late in the session to have both trades on:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short into the Value Area at A at 2729.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for six ticks, lowered stop and finally exited at 2725.25:

Futures Calls Recap for 1/2/13

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

Not the best start to the year for futures as the market gapped up so big, we didn’t have much for Levels to use for setups. The same trade triggered three times, stopping twice, but working the third time. See ES below. Volume in the market was good though, so hopefully that holds and we can get back to normal trading.

Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1446.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again at B and stopped. Triggered again at C, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/20/12

Thursday, December 20th, 2012

Two winners on the ES, although no real follow-through once again as volume started to dip and we really didn’t get an options unraveling move, which is interesting. Doubtful that we will get one Friday, and there might not even be any calls.

Net ticks: +7.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered short at A at 1430.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final piece 4 ticks in the money. Mark’s long triggered at B at 1436.25, hit first target for 6 ticks eventually, and stopped second half under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/19/12

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

Three triggers on the ES, one worked and two didn’t. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -8.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1438.25 in the morning and stopped. A later call triggered short at B at 1436.50 and stopped quickly, then retriggered at C, worked to the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece also in the money by 5 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/18/12

Monday, December 17th, 2012

The ES was higher by 18 on the day. This was expected after our 10-day Trin recorded an oversold reading. Note that price is above all of the major moving averages.

The NQ futures were higher by 39 full handles on the day. Again price is back above all the major moving averages but needs to prove itself by clearing the 5/8 level.

The total put/call ratio recorded an extreme downside reading which is a serious cause for concern for the bulls.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is even more overbought and climatically reading that the overall market is out of upside gas.

The BKX was the top gun on the day, exploding past the recent high and decisively closing above the 4/8 level.

The OSX is still technically challenged and traded in-line with the market. Keep in mind that it is still below the DTL.

The BTK was higher on the day but did not make a new high on the move.\

The SOX lagged the NAZ and remains below the 200dma.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/17/12

Monday, December 17th, 2012

One loser on the ES and Mark chose not to take it again (second trigger worked).

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1417.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/14/12

Friday, December 14th, 2012

No calls on a Friday for the futures contract roll. This day every quarter tends to be very dangerous as the big players are just moving their trading to the new (H3 – March 2013) contract. Given that it is also a Friday in December, things were very dull. The ES traded in a 5-point range until the last hour when things finally slipped. You’ll note in the charts that we barely touched any key levels.

Net ticks: +0 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

Late in the day, we had a 9-bar setup move down to S1 that led to a bounce:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/13/12

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

Couple of triggers with various results. See ES and NQ sections below. Tomorrow, we start trading the H3 (March 2013) contracts, and the first day of trading a new contract is usually a little sketchy.

Net ticks: -2 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My short triggered at A at 1425.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Mark’s long triggered at B at 1430.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Both were cancelled in terms of further entries:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s long triggered at 2679.00 at A and hit the first target and more, closing the final piece on a stop at 2685.50 at B. His short triggered at 2665.50 at C and hit the first target, and the second half stopped over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/12/12

Wednesday, December 12th, 2012

Two winners and no losers for the Fed announcement. See ES and NQ below. Market volume was a little light at 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +10.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s ES triggered at A at 1437.75 after the Fed, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My short triggered at A at 2689.00 and hit the first target for 6 ticks and kept going. After adjusting the stop a few times, the final exit was 2684.00 for 10 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/12/12

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

The ES expanded the rally’s range gaining 11 on the day. The MACD is above the zero line and carrying positive momentum. The next challenge for the bulls will be the 8/8 level at 1437.

The NQ futures were higher by 35 on the day and finally may be losing their relative weakness. Pride is now back above all the major moving averages and the MACD is just above the zero line which opens the door for momentum. Expect that the 5/8 level will be very key since it terminated the bounce in November and was the origin of the exhaustion gap on 12/3.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

The cause for concern to the bulls is the 10-day Trin which is very close to recording the first overbought reading since mid September.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross continues to make progress and is a very good indication that the relative weakness in the NDX may be taking a turn for the better. The NDX tends to lead the SPX and within the NDX the SOX tends to lead. So continued relative strength in the SOX is bullish for the NDX and then by extension relative strength in the NDX is bullish for the broad market.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and have solidly broken out above the active static trend line. Keep in mind that as this key index has pushed higher, the 200dma will be a formidable level.

The BTK was almost as strong as the SOX and could drive up to the swing high in October.

The BKX has yet to get the key boost from the MACD crossing above the zero line…stay tuned.

The OSX was flat on the day and is still being pulled by the DTL.

The XAU was lower on the day serving as a source of funds. Price bearishly remains below all of the important moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/11/12

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

A loser and then a winner on the ES for net gains on a gap and go day that saw better volume than the prior session. We closed with 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares as we wait for tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

Net ticks: +3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1425.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. He put it back in again and it triggered shortly thereafter, hitting the first target for 6 ticks and, after 3 raised stops, finally stopping the final piece at 1428.50 for 13 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/11/12

Monday, December 10th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day by 4 handles, nominally expanding the upside of the recent range on a low volume day. While the day was unimpressive internally, this is the first session of the move that where the close settled above the open.

The NQ futures put in a similar relative performance to the SP but still have a very different technical setup as price remains below the 50 and 200dma’s. The Relative weakness in the NQ side will be discussed in more detail below. Keep a close eye on the key 4/8 Gann level just abovfe.

Multi sector daily chart:

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin remains neutral:

The NDX has had persistent weakness vs. the SPX side since mid-September. This is a clear warning sign and a classic intermarket divergence. This condition needs to be rectified or it will surely hold back the overall broad market. Note the attempt to break back into the trend channel and rejection.

While the NDX tends to lead the SPX within the NDX there is a key leading component the SOX. As described above the NDX has relative weakness but the SOX has been improving after not making a new relative low. If the SOX can get back above the trend channel, then the NDX will have its trend leading component in a bullish position of relative strength.

The BTK was the top Naz sector, once again challenging the active static trend line.

The XAU is bouncing off a short-term oversold condition.

The SOX has settled above the static trend line and is now on the north side of the 10ema and 50dma. The next challenge will be the 200dma if it can clear relatively minor 5/8 Murrey math level.

The OSX is still grinding in the area of the active DTL:

The BKX was a laggard and is still contained by the 50dma:

If oil moves just a bit lower it will record a Seeker exhaustion buy:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/10/12

Monday, December 10th, 2012

A very limited day in the market on light volume. Mark’s ES trade triggered twice, worked once. See that section below. NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion shares.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1419.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tradesight November 2012 Futures Results

Sunday, December 9th, 2012

Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here.

Tradesight Tick Results for October 2012

Number of trades: 39
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Net ticks: -27 ticks

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.

2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Tick Results for November 2012

Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.4%
Net ticks: -27 ticks

A very strange month. Volume was light. We had the Hurricane that killed off action early. The election played a role. We had another bank Holiday in Veteran’s Day. We had Thanksgiving. In the end, we only had 26 trades trigger, compared to 36 the prior month and more typically. It’s just a weird month. Market volume was light the whole month, so size should have been limited. We started out strong and were profitable until the last two days of the month and then got stopped out of several trades in a row that killed us. Hopefully, December is better.

Futures Calls Recap for 12/7/12

Sunday, December 9th, 2012

A winner and a loser to wrap up a decent start to December this week. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1414.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 2660.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/6/12

Thursday, December 6th, 2012

One call that worked, and that was it. Market had a small gap down and filled within ten minutes. Volume was decent at 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES below.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1410.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/6/12

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

The SP was higher by 3 on the day and really did very little technically. The day’s real body is almost exactly what yesterday’s was and price was little changed. The settlement remains pinched between the 10ema and 50sma. The range needs to be resolved and then new technicals will develop. Keep in mind that there is still a recent Seeker 9 bar setup that has just completed.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by a hefty 27 handles. This was undoubtedly because of the steep losses in AAPL which is the largest NDX member. It is what it is and this settled the futures below the 10ema which turns the chart back to short term negative. Another technical to beware of is the fact that price is now back below all of the important moving averages and 50dma may cross below the 200dma which some technicians believe accelerates the move. That’s not our technical perspective but moving average crosses are widely followed and can be a self-fulfilling event.

Multi sector daily chart:

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin is staging but has not yet recorded an overbought reading.

The NDX very weak vs. the SPX and this condition is always worrisome for the broad market bulls.

The BKX was the top gun on the day but was unable to break out of the recent trading range. Keep in mind that the 50dma is a key level.

The OSX was slightly higher and is approaching a major break out/resistnace level where the moving average meets the trend line.

The SOX was flat on the day with no new technical developments.

The BTK was inside yesterday’s candle and unchanged on the day.

The housing index, HGX, finally is feeling the effect of the Seeker. This break should have been expected and is likely just starting a move.

While the HGX got smashed, it was not the weakest sector on the day, that place was taken by the XAU. This broke the XAU to a new low, be sure to see the comments on gold futures below.

Oil:

Gold recorded a Seeker exhaustion signal and should find support. Keep an eye on the YG, GLD and XAU for signs of reversal.

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/5/12

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

A winner on the NQ and a loser and winner on the ES for the session. See both sections below.

Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1405.75 and stopped for 7 ticks and he did not re-enter. His long triggered at B at 1410.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My short triggered at A at 2652.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at 2646.50 at B:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/5/12

Tuesday, December 4th, 2012

The SP was little changed on the day still unable to get above the key 50dma. Price used the 10ema for support and the resolution of this mini-range should extra punch.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by 5 and has the same range condition as the SP side. Beware that the 4/8 Murrey math levels is the third strongest of the box.

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

10-day Trin:

The SPX/TLT ratio took a turn in favor of risk off and is still unable to challenge the upper half of the trading range.

The OSX was top gun on the day and closed at a new high on the move. Note that the 50 and 200dma’s will be strong overhead.

The SOX was notable stronger than the overall NAZ.

The XAU was flat on the day after recouping a big loss. This has the potential to be an important higher low.

The BTK is still contained by the active static trend line but above all the major moving averages.

The BKX was the last laggard on the day and has troubling looking construction. Note that there has been no 9 bar seeker setup buy to support it.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/4/12

Tuesday, December 4th, 2012

A winner in the ES on a narrow market day where volume dropped back off early. We traded only 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at 1406.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/4/12

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

The ES was lower by 8 on the day after completing the 9 bar Seeker setup on Friday. Price is still being rejected by the 50dma that we have been focusing on. Going forward this will be an important point of reference perhaps even more so than the intraday high that was put in place Monday. Note that the CCI has not yet crossed the zero line which is where lasting upside momentum lies.

The NQ’s were only down ½ as much as the SP side but the chart construction is identical. Price opened above the 50dma and as it should have failed. The MACD has the same condition with no penetration of the zero line. The ES, NQ and YM all have downside CPS signals.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is below the 1.00 level but not yet in the overbought area of 0.85-.

The total put/call ratio is still in the neutral zone.

The relative strength of the NDX/SPX cross has just turned back into the comfort channel. A little more penetration into the channel would be a nice bullish sign for the NDX

The SPX/TLT cross is stuck in the middle of the channel. This is the current midpoint of the risk-on/risk-off measure.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and continues to bearishly ride the 10ema lower.

The BKX is still pinching between the two big moving averages.

The SOX completed 9 days up in the Seeker and bearishly closed back below the 4/8 level.

The OSX was stronger than the broad market:

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 12/3/12

Monday, December 3rd, 2012

A nice start to the month and week with two clean setups on the ES and both worked. See that section below.

Net ticks: +11.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

We gapped over the UPT and used it as the low of the first bar of the day, so an easy call is short under that at A at 1420.25. We hit the first target for 6 ticks and then accelerated on news and eventually stopped the final piece at 1417.25 for 12 ticks at B. Mark then called the setup against the Value Area High and Pivot, short at 1414.25 at C, and this hit the first target for 6 ticks and stopped the final piece over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/30/12

Friday, November 30th, 2012

It’s end of month and Friday and the market was completely dead for the first hour. Despite my better judgement, I went ahead and put a breakdown short in the Messenger just in case. The results were predictable to close out the month. See ES below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1411.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/29/12

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

The ES was higher by 9 on the day racing back up to the top of the recent range. The bad news is that the range is still holding and has not yet been resolved.

The NQ futures tested the 200dma and settle up on the day by 19. Keep in mind that this is a key area of resistance at the 4/8 Gann level.

The 10-day Trin is getting very close to the overbought threshold of 0.85:

The put/call ratio remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross is getting close to bullishly challenging the former breakdown:

The broker-dealer index aggressively broke to a new high. Expect resistance at the 8/8 level.

The SOX was stronger than the overall NDX. Layered overhead begins at the 4/8 level.

The OSX is now 12 days down on the Seeker count.

The XAU recouped very steep losses mid-day to finish stronger than the overall market.

Oil:

Gold

Futures Calls Recap for 11/28/12

Wednesday, November 28th, 2012

A great trading session for futures, tarred only by the one stop out, but two nice winners beyond that as we finally got some action (even though NASDAQ volume was only 1.6 billion shares still).

Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1388.25, hit first target for six ticks, adjusted the stop a few times and finally stopped at B at 1385.25. Triggered long at C at 1391.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Re-triggered at D, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed final piece at 1394.25 heading into lunch (unfortunately, it shot up right after):

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/28/12

Tuesday, November 27th, 2012

The ES posted another inside day, losing a net 6 handles. The mini-pattern is still contained within Friday’s range expansion candle so the resolution of the range should have good punch.

The NQ side had a little relative strength vs. the SP side. As expected the dual overhead of the 4/8 Gann level and 200dma are going to give the trend at least some initial trouble.

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

The SPX/TLT cross has rebounded back into the trend channel but the posture remains risk-off until the ratio crosses back above the upper channel boundary.

The SOX was the top major sector on the day but left a gravestone doji on the chart. The intermediate trend remains neutral until the trend line is broken.

The OSX was lower by 2 and used the 10ema for support.

The BKX was much weaker than the broad market and settled below the 10ema.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/27/12

Monday, November 26th, 2012

The ES was lower on the after posting an inside day. The light volume advance on the shortened Friday session likely kept trader’s wallets in their pockets to measure off the half session. The resolution of the inside day should have some punch, especially it is to the upside and keeps short from the initial breakaway gap trapped. The next important level is the 50dma overhead.

The NQ’s had relative strength vs. the broad market all session on the strength of mega-member AAPL. The Naz was higher by 12 on the day, which unlike the SP side, was range expansion rather than a measuring day. There is a big level overhead where the 4/8 Gann line meets the 200dma.

Keep a close eye on the 10-day Trin which is quickly approaching an overbought reading.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross is still bearishly below the breakdown level. The overall market will not find confirmed upside momentum until this level is reclaimed by the NDX coming on with sustained relative strength.

With the strength in AAPL it’s no surprise that the Computer Hardware index was the top gun on the day. Expect overhead at the 4/8 level.

The SOX will have overhead where the 50dma, 4/8 level and trend channel meet.

The XAU was mid-range performance wise. Note the 4/8 level just overhead.

The BTK posted an inside day. Price is back above all of tte major moving averages. The active static trend line is the next upside level.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day. Price touched but didn’t break below the 10ema. If price crosses back below the 10ema it will turn the chart back to short-term negative and be in position to complete the unfinished Seeker buy countdown.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/26/12

Monday, November 26th, 2012

As expected, market volume was incredibly light starting back up from the Thanksgiving weekend, and the futures were barely ticking most of the session. One nice setup in particular did nothing, showing how bad it was. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1396.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. His long, which was a beautiful setup against the Pivot, triggered at B at 1402.25, but stopped for 7 ticks. Most days, that would have worked:

Tradesight Market Overview for 11/21/12

Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

The ES was higher by 4 on the day after posing a measuring day. Probability favors a continuation tomorrow.

The NQ was higher by 8 on the day:

Total put/call ratio:

NYSE 10-day Trin:

The BTK outperformed the broad market:

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/20/12

Tuesday, November 20th, 2012

I thought we might get one good trading day, but instead, volume dropped sharply, only hitting 326 million NASDAQ shares after an hour, and closing at only 1.5 billion. So, nothing worked. See ES below.

Net ticks: -10 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A under LBreak at 1378.50 and stopped for only 3 ticks based on the call as typed. Set the UBreak at B and then triggered long at 1385.25 and stopped:

Tradesight Market Overview for 11/20/12

Monday, November 19th, 2012

The ES gapped higher and added onto the gains to close up 23 handles. Price is now above the 10ema which changes the short-term trend to positive. The advance today also cleared the 4/8 Murrey math level which is also bullish. Since the NYSE Trin closed around 0.50 a measuring day rather than more range expansion is likely.

The NQ futures were higher by 56 on the day. Though the levels are different the technical setup is very similar to the ES. As it should, the chart pattern found initial support at the 0/8 level. If the chart follows through either Tuesday or Wednesday then the 4/8 level that is coincident with eh 200dma will be in play.

The total put/call ratio has moved back to the neutral area but is well away from overbought.

The 10-day Trin still has plenty of room before it recorded a reversal signal.

Multi sector daily chart:

On the strength of AAPL the NDX/SPX cross has blasted back into the comfort zone of the trading zone.

The BKX had a very strong session showing good relative strength vs. the overall broad market SPX. If the relative strength can persist it will be very bullish for the overall market.

The OSX was the top sector on the day, nicely closing above the 10 ema.

The US$ was weak on the day and the XAU took a healthy reflexive bounce. Price remains below all of the major moving averages.

The BKX banking index was stronger than the broad market and NAZ. Keep in mind that this has been one of the stronger sectors on the day and in the larger time frames still bullishly has the 200dma below.

The SOX traded in line with the Naz.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day and is back into the heart of the recent range.

Oil:

Gold:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/19/12

Monday, November 19th, 2012

We had a big gap up and then a little push early with a winning ES trade and then things went flat for the rest of the session, which isn’t uncommon on the first day of a new options cycle.

Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1373.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and after raising the stop, stopped the second half 7 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/16/12

Friday, November 16th, 2012

Well, I have to apologize for this one. I made a mistake in the entry and didn’t notice until after the trade triggered. See ES below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

On the chart, I liked the way that the ES was basing just over S1 from Thursday into Friday (basically the Thursday low was Friday’s S1 blue line). I wanted to go short under that (1345.00), which worked to the 6 tick partial. However, I put the numbers into the Messenger to go short under LBreak (1343.25 at A), which was a little lower and triggered and stopped. Anyone that took the course should have recognized the difference (the S1 was both calculated and conventional charting combined, as we teach), but I blew it. Never done that before, so I apologize:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/15/12

Thursday, November 15th, 2012

A stop out and then the same trade triggered again and worked on the ES from Mark. See that section below. Range was back and forth and we closed flat, but volume has been improved this week nicely, hitting 2 billion shares on the NASDAQ again today. Friday should be dead for options expiration, so there might not be much to do.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

ES never even touched a level today, wow.

Mark’s call triggered short at 1348.25 at A, stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again at B, hit the first target, and stopped over the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/15/12

Wednesday, November 14th, 2012

The ES lost 18 handles on the day and recorded a new low on the move. Price has broken below the 4/8 Murrey math level but is close to recording an oversold reading of -200 on the CCI. Next support is 1343.75.

The NQ futures also made a new low on the move, losing 31 on the day. The chart has broken below the 1/8 level and should find support at the 0/8 level in the 2500 area. Like the SP side, the CCI is very close to an oversold reading.

The total put/call ratio is close to an oversold reading but not quite yet…stay tuned.

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral range.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross chart is still in the trading range:

The Dow/gold ratio remains in a bearish trend with the hard asset favored over equities—weekly chart below.

The SOX was the top sector on the day. Note the key Murrey math level that is again being used for support.

The OSX traded in-line with the broad market but did make a new low on the move.

The BTK continues to game the 200dma so nothing new technically. Keep in mind that it still has relative strength.

The banking index broke below the key 200dma but expect it to at least find short term support here. The 200dma tends to be gammed when first tested.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day. Next important support will be the active static trend line.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/14/12

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012

The ES lost 7 on the day which made a new low on the move and matched the low close. Average prices are lower over the course of the expiring option cycle so traders shouldn’t be surprised by the lack of bids. Wednesday is the key day this week ahead of Friday’s expiration and be sure to be ready for a move after 60mins into the day and respect the direction of the move.

The NQ’s were weaker then the broad market futures and decisively made a new low on the move. Keep in mind that both the SP and NQ’s settled above the open which puts in place a camouflage buy condition.

Total put/call ratio:

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

SPX vs. NDX daily comparison chart:

The relative performance chart still shows bearish action from the NDX side.

The BTK was the top performer on the day after recording a flat session.

The OSX posted and inside day with a small gain. Price remains bearishly below all of the major moving averages.

The SOX was weaker than the broad market. Keep a close eye on the MACD for a positive cross above the zero line which would be a game changer for the chart.

The BKX made a new low on the move. Key support is just below at the static trend line and 200dma. Option expiration could take price down to either level.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/13/12

Tuesday, November 13th, 2012

A nice winner on the ES as the market gapped down and set the S2 from underneath in the opening 2 minutes of play, so we took a long moving back through that and it worked quite well. See ES section below.

Net ticks: +15 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1369.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and we adjusted the stop five times and finally stopped at 1375.25 at B:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/13/12

Monday, November 12th, 2012

The ES was higher by 2 on the day after trading in a wide range. Price is feeling the pull of the 200dma, setting right at it. Expect more 200dma gaming until the expiration will force decisions.

The NQ futures were flat on the day after gapping up and attempting higher prices. Price was contained within the prior day’s range so the resolution of the pattern will have some punch.

The total put/call ratio has retreated to neutral after recording climatic over sold reading.

The 10-day Trin has pulled back to the neutral area.

Multi sector daily chart:

The bright point within the Naz universe is that the SOX is showing relative strength but until the range is broken it’s just a reflex move.

BTK was the top gun on the day:

OSX was stronger than the broad market.

The BKX was flat:

The SOX was also flat:

The HGX housing index was the last laggard on the day. Monday it bearishly settled below the 50dma and could be ready to turn lower. Keep a close eye on the MACD for the cross of the zero line which will accelerate the downside momentum.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight October 2012 Futures Results

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here.

Tradesight Tick Results for September 2012

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 54.8%
Net ticks: +6.5

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.

2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Tick Results for October 2012

Number of trades: 39
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Net ticks: -27 ticks

This has been a horrible time for the markets in terms of volume and range, and our futures calls have finally registered their first negative month because of it. This includes Hurricane Sandy, which meant a couple of days without trades at the end of the month due to the markets being closed. It is an exceptional time for trading, something we have never seen before, and I remain satisfied that our system encourages tight stops and less trading when volume and ranges are bad. These results don’t reflect the fact (in the raw numbers) that our system suggests smaller size when ranges are bad.

Here’s hoping November and December see some improvement as we work to resolve the fiscal cliff.

Futures Calls Recap for 11/9/12

Sunday, November 11th, 2012

A little disappointing considering the volume was up at 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. We won 1 and lost 3. See ES, NQ, and ER below.

Net ticks: -15 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered long at A at 1375.25 and stopped immediately on news, then triggered again shortly after, hit first target for six ticks, and finally stopped the second half in the money by 8 ticks. Mark’s separate ES long entry into the Value Area triggered at B at 1377.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Re-entry would have worked:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

NQ short under the LBreak never triggered (hit it exactly):

ER:

Triggered long at A at 795.50 and stopped for 8 ticks (we use more on the ER because it is wild):

Futures Calls Recap for 11/8/12

Thursday, November 8th, 2012

Two attempts to break the early lows swept and stopped and that was enough, although the third attempt would have worked. See ES below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1387.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. Retriggered shortly after at the same price and stopped again:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/6/12

Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

A nice winner on the long side of the ES. See that section below. Market volume was back up after Monday’s light session.

Net ticks: +15 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Set the UPT perfectly and then Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1420.25 moving through it, got a partial for 6 ticks, and after a few stop adjustments, stopped at B at 1426.25:

Futures Call Recap for 11/2/12

Monday, November 5th, 2012

Mark’s ES call about an hour in worked, see that section below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at 1427.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped final piece 5 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 11/1/12

Thursday, November 1st, 2012

A nice winner on a gap-and-go day. Check the ES section below. The market gapped up (over the UPT, which is key for the gap-and-gos) and pushed up early. The afternoon was a bust again as we clung to the VWAP. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion.

Net ticks: +10 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered long at A at 1414.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised the stop a couple of times, and finally stopped at 1417.75:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/31/12

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

The volume was heavy early on, but we knew that trading would be sketchy at best with most of New York still reeling from Sandy. I tried one ES short into the Value Area that stopped and I nixed taking it a second time (would have worked). This could be a little slow until Monday, and maybe even after Tuesday’s election.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1410.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

:

 

Futures Calls Recap for 10/25/12

Thursday, October 25th, 2012

Two calls, two winners on the ES. See that section below.

Net ticks: +9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1412.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half two ticks over the entry. Triggered short at B at 1409.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and lowered stop twice and stopped 8 ticks in the money:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/25/12

Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

The ES logged a pretty flat day but expanded the downside range and made a second close below the static trend line which will now break it. Key support remains at 1406.

The NQ futures were lower by 10 on the day settling right at the key 200dma. Keep in mind that the 200dma tends to get gamed when first tested so be prepared.

The 10-day Trin is still carrying oversold energy.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX vs. SPX shows the troublesome relative weakness in the NDX. There is some separation in the chart and traders should be prepared for a window where the SPX has some relative weakness while the Naz side uses the 200dma for support. This won’t change anything but after this window closes then the relative behavior again becomes front and center.

Copper, affectionately known as the PhD of commodities, has broken decisively below all major moving averages. In the chart of the copper tracking JJC etf, there is now no noticeable support until the Seeker static trend line at 43.75. Careful examination of the chart patter will show a multi month island in place.

The HGX housing index was the top gun on the day. The pattern has had a very nice run and is only one strong day away from a Seeker 13 exhaustion signal.

The BKX was lower on the day but outperformed the NDX. Price has yet to violate the Sep low and the 50dma—this is the key area.

The BTK is breaking with the 200dma in sight. Note that the MACD is in a very bearish position with downside momentum gathering.

The SOX index has bearishly made a new low on the move asd is now to the last real area of support before the prior lows.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market and is back down to key support.

The XAU was the last laggard and has settled below the low of the recent trading range. Keep a close eye on the key 175, 4/8 level for the next area of support.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/24/12

Wednesday, October 24th, 2012

Two losers early after two nice setups, and a winner after the Fed announcement later in the session. All of it on the ES, see that section below.

Net ticks: -10 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1414.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. That was an opening bar trade, which I usually don’t do, but it was a nice breakout over yesterday’s action. Triggered short at B after setting the Value Area High at 1410.25, which also stopped for 7 ticks. I didn’t re-enter because it spent 10 minutes in the Value Area, but the re-trigger would have worked. Also triggered short at C at 1404.75 after the Fed, hit first target for six ticks, and closed the final at 1404.25 as it got late in the session:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Tradesight Market Overview for 10/24/12

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

As we talked about yesterday, the small bounce in the ES was relatively meaningless because it did not penetrate the upper half of Friday’s steep decline today’s price action was more notable. Two key things happened because the static trend line was undercut and 9/5/12 breakaway gap was filled. The technical damage already seen in the NDX side of the market is now present in the SPX side.

The NQ was much more contained than the SP side because of the 3 key levels that are converging. The 4/8 Murrey math level, the active static trend line and the 200dma provided support to arrest the slide in the NQ. Although the NQ lost 27 on the day it greatly outperformed the SP side and the Naz should find support enough to either consolidate or put in a short-term reversal here.

The total put/call ratio has put in a multi month high but didn’t yet record a climatic readaing.

The 10-day Trin is oversold and has upside reversal energy for the overall market.

The NDX cross bounced off of a very oversold reading but needs to reclaim the trend channel before there is a new technical development.

The SOX/NDX cross is still hanging onto the prior low and has yet to decisively break. This might be the one bright point for the bulls in the NDX.

The SPX/TLT cross has not recorded a new low which indicates that so far there has been no detectable flight to safety in favor of US treasuries over equities.

The QQQ’s have declined to the key support area of the static trend line and 200dma. This is a make-or-break area where a loss and a qualified follow through will put a Seeker 9 bar buy setup in motion.

The SOX was the top gun and the only important sector up on the day. Note that in June the 2/8 level was a key area that reversed the trend.

The BKX broke but found support at the 50dma and September low—49 is key support.

The OSX was boxed up and still drawn by the major moving averages.

The BTK was much weaker than the NAZ and has experienced rapid profit taking. Look for key support at the 2/8 Murrey math level where the 200dma comes into play.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and has key support at the 181 area. Note that the Seeker is 11 days up in the sell countdown.

Gold:

Silver:

Oil:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/23/12

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2012

Three losers and a winner on a choppy session that was flatter on the ES than the NQ due to the AAPL news. Volume was 1.75 billion NASDAQ share.

Net ticks: -15 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

A nice afternoon setup triggered long at A at 1413.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. I put it in again as it set up a bull flag and it stopped again:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s call triggered short at A at 2654.00 and stopped. His long triggered at B at 2672.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and should have stopped at the same price level. Note that it exactly moved across the Value Area to C:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/23/12

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

The ES was higher by 6 on the day after a strong afternoon rally. While the end of the day may have “felt good” to the bulls, it is still below the midpoint of Friday’s break which remains a technical negative and keeps the bears in charge. 1435 is key overhead and the active static trend line is near-term support.

The NQ futures were twice as strong as the ES but still leave the bears in charge. The combination of the static trend line and 4/8 level are near-term support and the 2706 is the key resistance level. The MACD is negative but in no way oversold.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

The 10-day Trin is also neutral being neither overbought nor oversold.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX has broken decisively below the support line indicating weakness in the Naz stocks which will likely be an anchor on the overall broad market.

The HWI hardware index posted an inside day and could be trying for a double bottom.

The defensive XAU put in a strong showing and could be building a handle below the 8/8 level.

The SOX was about flat on the day but remains below all of the key moving averages.

The BKX is winding up in a triangle and poised to breakout because it’s getting closer to the apex of the pattern.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market and has key overhead at the static trendline.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day and is in a confirmed short-term down trend. Note that the MACD has crossed below the zero line.

Oil followed through the 50dma:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/22/12

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

Three trades, three winners, although none of them did much for follow through. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1429.00, hit first target for six ticks, stopped second half under the entry. My afternoon call was made long after the ES based against the LBreak and entered at B at 1422.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I tightened up the stop and locked in the final piece at 1422.50 because it was getting late:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My morning call triggered long at A at 2680.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second piece under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/18/12

Thursday, October 18th, 2012

One winner and two losers for the session as the GOOG accidental release of earnings messed up the trading day. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

ES triggered long at A at 1454.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under entry. Mark’s short triggered at B at 1450.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Long triggered at A into Value Area at 2768.50 and stopped:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/18/12

Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

The ES was higher by 8 on the day and is just under the best close of the YTD. 1468 is the next key overhead if it can continue to build on the recent pivot off the 50dma.

The NQ futures were higher on the day but only by 5 handles. The NQ’s remain relatively weak vs. the SP futures and are still below the recent breakdown level of 2775. Also note that price is still below the 50dma and the key 8/8 Murrey math level.

The total put/call ratio is neutral:

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral area:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX lost more ground vs. the SPX but did not yet make a fatal decisive break.

The HGX housing index was the top gun on the day and is close to breaking out but is 11 days up in the Seeker count.

The BTK was stronger than the broad market and could take a run at the 8/8 level.

The OSX has broken out of the recent range and is now above all of the major moving averages. The static trend line is the near-term target.

The BKX was positive on the day but is tracing out a bearish rising wedge. Key support is at the 8/8 Murrey math level.

The SOX did not build on yesterday’s gains and posted an inside real body candle.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/17/12

Wednesday, October 17th, 2012

Mark’s ES long turned into a nice winner, see that section below, as the market opened flat and headed up early on much better volume. His YM in the afternoon triggered and stopped, see that section below too.

Net ticks: -2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1451.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he raised the stop twice and finally stopped at 1454.50:

YM:

Mark’s call triggered long at 13494 at A and stopped for 11 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/17/12

Tuesday, October 16th, 2012

The ES sprinted higher by 14 handles leaving an open gap. The 10ema has been reclaimed by the bulls and the chart is now above all the major moving averages.

The NQ futures were higher by 34 on the day and finally shook off, at least for a day, the persistent relative weakness. If the up move continues, the 50dma and 8/8 levels overhead are all big.

The total put/call ratio is moving towards but not yet at a climatic reading.

The 10-day Trin is neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX finally showed some relative strength and has yet to break.

The NDX/SPX cross is still holding onto key support.

Note in the SPX/NDX comparison chart that the NDX is back at the key breakout level. This could provide resistance in the next couple of sessions and is the first area that qualifies as a retest of the current high.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and closed above the 10ema for the first time in weeks.

The defensive XAU was suspiciously strong. Yes this index is seasonally strong now but the underperformance in the banks is not what the bulls were hoping for.

The OSX is trying to pivot but will need another day to prove itself.

The BTK posted an indecisive inside day.

The BKX was the last laggard by a wide margin and was the only major sector down on the day. Key support remains at the 8/8 level.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/16/12

Tuesday, October 16th, 2012

Mark’s ES call stopped out twice, worked the third time, although he called off the third trigger heading into lunch. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1446.25 and stopped for 7 ticks, and then triggered again at B and did the same:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/16/12

Monday, October 15th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day by 14 handles. This was the best close in 4 sessions but did not change the trend back to short-term positive because price remains below the 10ema. If the pattern turns back lower then look to the static trend line for support.

The NQ was higher by 21 on the day but still has relative weakness vs. the SP side. The pattern is still below the 10 and 50 period moving averages. Keep in mind that on a bounce and a retest of the YTD highs the Seeker could still record a sell signal.

The total put/call ratio is still in the normal trading range.

The 10-day Trin is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The relative weakness in the NDX vs. SPX is painfully clear in the cross ratio chart. Keep a close eye on a break below the recent support level which will be a key inflection point.

The SOX closed at a new low on the move and does not yet have any support from the Seeker for a reversal.

The BKX posted an indecisive inside day. It will take until the range is resolved to have a technical development. Keep in mind that the 8/8 level is very strong.

The OSX is still range bound and below all of the major moving averages.

BTK was the weakest sector on the day. It was flat and is still above the key 50 and 200 period moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/12/12

Monday, October 15th, 2012

One trigger, one winner to close out the week. NASDAQ volume was a light 1.5 billion shares. See ES section below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s called triggered long at A at 1430.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece in the money at 1432.00:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/11/12

Thursday, October 11th, 2012

A winner in the ES on a light volume day that traded just over half of average daily range. NASDAQ volume was 1.4 billion shares.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at 1433.75 at A and hit the first target for six ticks, then stopped the second half over the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/10/12

Tuesday, October 9th, 2012

The ES lost 14 on the day, closing decisively back below the 10ema. The double top potential is there but cannot be called so until the September lows are undercut. Note that he September lows will have critical support from the rising 50dma if traded.

The NQ was relatively weak vs. the SP by losing a full 43 handles. The pattern is now below the 10ema and 50sma. The CCI is just above the oversold threshold of -200.

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

Note the relative weakness in the NDX which is always bearish.

The OSX was the only major sector that was higher on the day though price remains bearishly below all of the major moving averages.

The BKX continues to have potential for a double top but the pattern is still positive with price above the 10ema.

The SOX gapped to close at a multi month low. Next support is the Murrey math 3/8 level.

The BTK got slammed, closing weaker than the Naz and broad market. Key support and a break level is the July high.

The computer hardware index was the weakest sector on the day. The recent weakness in HPQ and AAPL are pulling heavily on this index. Note the open gap that is in the sights of the bears to close. The next level to watch after that will be the 0/8 level.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/9/12

Tuesday, October 9th, 2012

A nice winner on the ES and a stop out on the ER despite light volume in the market. These were both in the morning, as the afternoon was a joke. See both sections below.

Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1446.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and after several adjustments, stopped the final at 1441 at B:

ER:

Mark’s short triggered at 833.50 at A and stopped for 8 ticks. He did not re-enter, although that worked:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/8/12

Monday, October 8th, 2012

On light, quasi-holiday, trade the ES gapped down and ultimately lost 6 on the day. The gap remains open which leaves an unfavorable 2 day pattern. The old high was tested, leaving a range high camo sell candle on the chart and today a slight follow through.

The NQ futures were much, much weaker than the broad market losing 27 on the day. Key support/breakdown level is just below at the 50dma and last month’s low.

The put/call ratio that is on the rise should raise some eyebrows. The closing reading wasn’t climatic but this is often how you get to one.

The 10-day Trin still has oversold energy to be released.

If there is any good news for the bulls form the day’s action it’s that the Sox/Ndx cross didn’t yet break. Stay tuned.

The relative weakness in the NDX vs. the SPX is very bearish. This is exactly what is usually observed before the market moving to short term then intermediate term negative.

The OSX was the top gun on the day but was only marginally positive. Price remains below the important MA’s.

The BKX traded in-line with the broad market. The chart is positive but traders will need to pay close attention to the Sept. lows which would qualify a double top if they are undercut.

The market leading BTK hit the key 8/8 level. We will have to pay close attention to how price interacts with the 10ema.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/5/12

Friday, October 5th, 2012

A big day on Friday with three winners and a dead even trade on three different contracts. See ES, YM, and ER below.

Net ticks: +27 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 1464.75. It took a long time to do much, and he moved the stop up to even, which is where it closed. Later, his short triggered at B at 1460.75 over the lunchtime doldrums, and was closed for three ticks:

ER:

My long triggered at 848.30 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks, and I revised the stop three times and stopped the final piece at 851.40, 31 ticks in the money:

YM:

Mark’s long triggered at A at 13580, hit first target for 10 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/4/12

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

The ES gained 4 on the day and remains in an upwardly drifting pattern. Price is still contained within last week’s range.

The NQ futures are still staging under the key 8/8 level. The Seeker pattern is still 12 days up with an exhaustion signal on deck.

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin is still oversold and has upside energy that hasn’t yet been released.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross needs to stop right here or a real break down and new lows for the SOX are in the cards.

Watch the BKX closely here to see if the financials can exert themselves and provide leadership.

The BKX was again the top gun on the day setting above the key 8/8 level. This close above the 10ema turns the chart short-term bullish.

The BTK was relatively strong and settled just below the prior high. Be sure to look at stocks in this sector for 52 week breakouts.

The SOX was weaker than the NQ’s on the day and remains below all of the key moving averages.

The XAU is used the 6/8 level for support and needs to hold here since there is a potential for a lower high. 181 is the next level of support and a close below 188 will qualify the lower high in the pattern.

The OSX broke and closed at a new low on the move. This chart looks like trouble for the bulls and should be fuel for the bears to look for shorts. Price broke the static trend line and the MACD breeched the zero line.

Oil put in a notable break and may have trouble holding at the 4/8 level because the MACD has crossed the zero level.

Gold:

Silver:

Copper:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/3/12

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012

Wow. Three stop outs, all of them great setups that failed on light volume, and then a decent winner later. See ES and NQ below.

Net ticks: -12 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at 1436.25 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. My long triggered at B at 1443.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. The re-triggered hit at C, hit first target for 6 ticks and I raised the stop twice and stopped at 1446.50 at D:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My call triggered short at 2797.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 10/2/12

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012

One winner, one loser, and one trade closed at breakeven late in the session. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: -3.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at 1432.75 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again shortly after and then closed it in the last hour at the entry price (there was a Seeker 13 buy signal at the time on the NQ):

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s short triggered at A at 2787.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped a tick in the money:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/3/12

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2012

The ES was higher by 4 on the day but settled below the opening level. This marks yet another indecisive day for the SPX futures. The Seeker setup count is now 9 days down but bars 8 & 9 are too high to qualify a bounce.

The NQ futures are still below the 10ema and the key 8/8 Murrey math level. This is the 5th candle in basically the same range so when this mini-pattern breaks out it should have some punch. Note that the MACD is negative but still above the zero line.

The 10-day Trin is still in the oversold area:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is still hovering at range low but has yet to definitively breakdown.

The SPX/TLT cross is still well below the high and is showing a defensive posture from the larger investors.

The NDX continues to lose relative strength. AAPL is the key here and if it breaks down then the NDX and by association the SPX is doomed.

The BTK was the top gun on the day and is poised to challenge the prior high. There is no Seeker count to stand in the way of it taking a shot at the 8/8 level or even the overbought Murrey math levels.

The SOX was stronger than the NDX but posted an inside day. Keep in mind that the close was below all of the major moving averages and the MACD is below the zero line.

The BKX remains below the 8/8 level and needs to get something going.

The OSX made a new low on the move and is using he active static trend line for support. There is a window of opportunity for the bulls to make a move before the MACD loses the zero line. Time is short and if energy is moving lower the overall market will feel the pull.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 10/2/12

Monday, October 1st, 2012

The ES settled higher on the day by 3. Since price settled below the open but up on the day it is a camouflage sell signal. Also on the chart is very tall tail which is never bullish at range high.

The NQ futures were much weaker than the broad market all day. Price closed below the open and lost a net 4 handles on the day. Keep in mind that the Seeker sell count is 12 days up.

AAPL is the locomotive engine that drives the NQ and today it closed below last week’s low and in fact it made a new low monthly close. We usually don’t talk about individual stocks in this part of the report but since AAPL has such a heavy weighting in the NQ’s and with its supply chain can really dictate which track the NQ train takes.

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin is still oversold which will provide the market upside fuel when it turns.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX was the last laggard on the day but posted an inside candle so we’ll have to defer to a break of Friday’s candle for any new technical development.

The OSX was unchanged:

The BKX posted a very narrow range day, staging below the 8/8 level.

The BTK was the strongest sector and still has a bullish formation with price above all major moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/28/12

Friday, September 28th, 2012

Not an exciting ending to the month, although we expected that since it is also end of quarter. There were a total of 5 trades that triggered on the ES. Two winners and three losers. See that section below.

Net ticks: -11 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call for the gap fill triggered long at 1436.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. Mark’s short at 1429.50 triggered at B and stopped for 7 ticks, and then again at C and stopped for 7 ticks. The long triggered again at D, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped the second half under the entry (if you took it in the middle of lunch). After basing under that level, it triggered again at E, hit first target for 6 ticks, and raised the stop to finally close at 1438.25:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/27/12

Thursday, September 27th, 2012

One stop out and one bigger winner from Mark in the ES today for net gains. See that section below. Volume dropped sharply from what we were seeing earlier in the week, but that’s no surprise considering we’re heading into the end of the quarter on Friday. NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion.

Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at 1431.00 at A and stopped. His long triggered at 1434.75 at B, hit first target at B, and raised stop a few times and stopped the final piece 1440.00 at C for 21 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/27/12

Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

The ES expanded the downside and lost 10 handles on the day. Keep the static trend line in mind for a trade to target on the initial decline.

The NQ futures were weaker than the broad market losing 29. Price is below the Q1 breakout and looks poised to tag the 50dma.

Total put/call ratio:

10-day Trin is on the rise but not yet oversold.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX is hovering at the prior low. If this breaks and makes a new leg down then the NDX is in big trouble.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day and the only major sector up on the day. A reclamation of the 10ema could begin the tracing out of a handle in the oval pattern.

The SOX was actually slightly stronger than the NDX which is why out ratio chart above didn’t break to a new low yet. 4/8 is key near-term support.

The BKX traded in line with the market. Note the gap just above candle 1 of the most recent Seeker setup count.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and is very close to key support at the static trend line. Note that this candle breaks it below all of the moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

TLT:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/26/12

Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

The ES lost 14 on the day decisively settling below the 10ema, turning the short-term trend negative. The next key support is very obvious on the chart where the Q1 highs align with the active static trend line.

The NQ futures were weaker than the broad market and already are much closer to the key Q1 highs. Note that the pattern is 12 days up in the Seeker countdown so a bounce an retest of the highs will likely fail.

The intraday Trin closed at a very high level and almost has the 10-day average in the oversold range.

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross made a new marginal low on the move. A follow through to the downside would be very bearish for the overall NDX.

All of the major averages were lower on the day with the BTK being the best of the worst. There is key support just below at the previous breakout level.

The OSX traded in line with the broad market and is dangerously close to breaking below the 50 and 200dma’s. If they are taken out, look out below.

The BKX settled below the 8/8 level and more importantly below the Q1 highs showing relative weakness on the day. There is a lot of space between settlement and the next support area defined by the static trend line.

The important SOX index had a horrible day losing 2.5% and settling decisively below all the major moving averages. This is real problem for the NDX and by association the SPX. The chart is short term oversold but should find resistance on bounces to the 6/8 level

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/25/12

Tuesday, September 25th, 2012

We had a couple of nice setups on the long side early that triggered when both the ES and NQ were getting Comber and Seeker sell signals on the 5-minute charts, so we cut the trades short before they hit targets or stops. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at 1456.00 at A and was closed at 1455.00 for 4 ticks when the market stalled on the Seeker and Comber signals:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My NQ triggered long at 2848.50 at A and I closed it at 2849.00 for a tick gain on the Seeker and Comber signals:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/25/12

Monday, September 24th, 2012

The SP gapped down in the neighborhood of the LPT and was able to close the gap and ultimately settle flat on the day. This is a technical win for the longs because of the large gap if the bears wanted to press the opportunity was there. Price is still above the short-term trend defining 10ema.

The NQ futures also settled above the 10ema but did not close the gap and closed down 14 on the day. Note that the Seeker count is only one strong candle away from an exhaustion signal.

10-day Trin:

The total put/call ratio has recently recorded a climatically bullish reading.

The multi sector daily chart highlights the relative strength of the BTK sector and weakness of the SOX.

The SOX/NDX ratio chart shows the bearish and sustained underperformance of the SOX. If the ratio breaks to a new low then the overall NDX is likely going to tank.

A breakout in the SPX/TLT cross would be bullish for the broad market but the ratio is currently retreating indicating more conservative flows for new money.

NDX/SPX cross is neutral:

The BKX was the top major sector on the day, taking a bounce off the key 8/8 level. Note how the breakout above the March highs is still holding.

The BTK was slightly lower on the day but is still well above the 10ema and looks poised to challenge the 8/8 level.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market:

The XAU suffered a major distribution day off of range high. The trend will turn negative on a close below the 10ema.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/21/12

Friday, September 21st, 2012

Two winners and a stop out to wrap up the week as options expiration was exactly what we expected…fairly dull with heavy volume early. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s ES short triggered at A at 1457.75, hit first target for six ticks, and the second half stopped over the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

My short triggered at A at 2866.00 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again at B, hit first target for six ticks, lowered the stop later, and finally stopped at 2859.50 at C:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/20/12

Thursday, September 20th, 2012

Multiple trade calls on the ES and YM, 3 out of 4 of them worked finally despite a fairly choppy environment. We did see a second wave of options unraveling…to the upside again…and volume was up, closing near 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1445.75 and hit the first target for 6 ticks, stopped the second half over the entry. My long triggered at 1449.00 at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, closed final piece at 1450.00. Mark had a third ES call that triggered into the Value Area at C at 1454.00 and closed for 4 ticks gain for end of session:

YM:

Mark’s YM triggered long at A at 13476, hit the first target for 10 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/20/12

Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

The ES was unchanged on the day and we saw no evidence of options unraveling. Be ready for a bias to develop tomorrow after 60mins into the session.

The NQ futures are also in the waiting room for expiration. Note that the Seeker pattern is now 12 days up.

10-day Trin:

The total put/call ratio has recorded a climatic reading and is overbought:

The SOX/NDX cross still looks terrible and is real cause for concern to the NDX longs.

The SPX/TLT took a big hit in favor of bond safety over equity exposure.

The XAU made a new high on the move clearing the 7/8 level. 8/8 is next and also the area of the prior highs.

The BTK extended the run and is driving towards the next overhead at 1593.

The BKX was a little higher on the day and should find support at the 8/8 level on the retest. If that area fails to hold it will be a false breakout and real trouble for the pattern.

The OSX gapped lower and settled right at the 10ema. If we get a settlement below the 10ema the trend will turn short-term negative.

Oil broke hard and settled below all of the major moving averages. The 4/8 level could be a reasonable target.

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/19/12

Wednesday, September 19th, 2012

A couple of calls but only one trigger on what was a slightly disappointing day that could have seen triple-witching options unraveling, but instead saw the ES stuck in just over a 5 point range again.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1455.75 at A and stopped one tick short of the first target (although our UPT was the wall there) before eventually rolling over and stopping. A retrigger would have worked on the same call:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/19/12

Tuesday, September 18th, 2012

The ES treaded water ahead of option expiration Friday. There is nothing new technically and the chart has posted a couple of very small range bars that have worked off the large impulse from last week.

The NQ futures were a little stronger than the broad market and were higher on the day by 4 handles. Note that the Seeker countdown is now 12 days up.

10-Day Trin still has overbought energy:

Total put/call ratio:

Pc

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX is still relatively weak and a real issue for the broad market.

The XAU was the top gun on the day and made a new high on the move. The next trade-to-target will be the 8/8 level.

The BTK is making new highs on the move and the CCI has more room before it gets terminally overbought.

The SOX was down small and is still trapped below the 8/8 level.

The BKX is setting up for a Seeker sell signal. Keep a close eye on this key indicator.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market and is now 8 days up.

Gold:

Silver:

Oil:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/18/12

Monday, September 17th, 2012

The ES futures lost 5 on the day leaving a topping tail in the chart.

The NQ futures posted an indecisive inside day.

This is the only important development that traders should pay attention to. The 10-day Trin has produced an overbought signal as of last week. It is only the third time that this has happened in 2012.

Multi sector daily chart:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/14/12

Monday, September 17th, 2012

Nice winner on the ES to close out the week. See that section below.

Net ticks: +8.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s ES call triggered long at A at 1462.75, hit the first target for six ticks, and stopped the final piece at 1465.50 at B:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/13/12

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day making a new high close on the move. Note that the gap from Tuesday is still open and not yet filled.

The NQ futures were higher by 17 but still have a MACD that is pointing lower. Price closed indecisively right at the 10ema. The major averages were likely waiting on word from the Fed who will communicate any policy changes on Thursday afternoon.

The put/call ratio has a downward bias but has yet to record a climatic close.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SPX bullishly made a new high vs. the defensive TLT which is what one should expect after a new high close in the broad market. There is no divergence here.

The SPX/NDX relative performance chart shows relative weakness in the NDX which is a divergence and needs to reverse for the SPX to follow through.

The BTK was the top gun on the day but since no new high was produced there is nothing new technically.

The OSX was nicely higher on the day and at this point in the cycle should be showing leadership. The static trend line is the key overhead.

The defensive XAU recouped a huge intraday drop and settled just above the open today.

The SOX really lagged all of the indexes and was only higher by one on the day.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/12/12

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

Four triggers, and three of them worked (ES, YM, NQ, YM again) to their first targets. See those sections below. In the end, though, even though market volume was up (NASDAQ volume closed at 1.6 billion shares), the ES was only in a 5-point range as the market awaits the Fed on Thursday.

Net ticks: +1 tick.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1435.75, hit first target for six ticks, second half stopped at 1435.25:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2792.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop over entry at stopped just barely on the next bar:

YM:

Mark’s call triggered short at 14337 at A and stopped for 10 ticks initially, then triggered again at B and hit first target for 10 ticks, then stopped under the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/12/12

Tuesday, September 11th, 2012

The ES gained 4 on the day after trying higher prices but failing which leaves a tall tail on the chart but doesn’t make a classic distribution day. Tuesday’s close keeps the chart above the short-term trend defining 10ema.

The NQ futures were much weaker than the ES all session making for a bifurcated day. Price has settled below the 10ema and not strong market has ever been built on the foundation of a weak NDX.

The 10-day Trin remains neutral making the market neither over bought nor oversold.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SPX actually picked up some relative strength vs. the TLT. This should be surprising and somewhat mitigates the relative weakness in the NDX.

The OSX was the top gun on the day besting all of the other major sectors. This is a new high on the move and has turned all of the moving averages. The next important overhead level is the active static trend line.

The BKX made a marginal new high on the move. Next overhead is the key 8/8 Murrey math level.

The SOX was higher on the day but is still below the 10ema. The 8/8 level continues to be a wall. Note that the MACD is still in a deteriorating buy condition.

The BTK was the weakest major sector on the day but remains above all the key moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 9/11/12

Tuesday, September 11th, 2012

Two winners and a loser for the session, which proved to be fine as volume was light again at 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares as we head into a Fed meeting and announcement (Thursday).

Net ticks: +3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

My call triggered long at A over the UPT at 1434.75, hit 6 ticks for the first target, and raised stop twice and stopped at 1435.75:

YM:

Mark’s call triggered long once at A at 13325 and stopped for 11 ticks, then triggered again shortly thereafter, hit the first target for 10 ticks and closed out the final piece for 8 ticks:

Tradesight Market Overview for 9/11/12

Monday, September 10th, 2012

The ES reversed lower losing 12 on the day. Key support is the March highs which coincides with the 10ema. Note that he CCI is in a very short-term overbought condition.

The NQ futures lost 39 on the day and like the ES posted a very negative day but did not register a key reversal. Volume was lower than the previous day and a new high was not traded. The 10ema is key support.

The 10-day Trin is still neutral.

Nothing new in the total put/call ratio which is neither over bought nor oversold.

Multi sector daily chart:

The double tops in the SPX ns NDX have been broken and need to follow through to qualify.

While the double tops have been broken the SPX/TLT still needs to record a new high to confirm the strength in equities over the perceived safety of bonds.

The BTK was the strongest major sector on the day. A new high has yet to be recorded and the pattern is in no meaningful way overbought.

The OSX posted an inside day:

The SOX was the last laggard on the day by a wide margin, settling at the 50dma. Note that price has now settled below the 10ema.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight August 2012 Futures Results

Monday, September 10th, 2012

Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here.

Tradesight Tick Results for July 2012

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 51.4%
Net ticks: +11 (+27 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.

2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Tick Results for August 2012

Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 54.8%
Net ticks: +6.5

If July was awkward, August was down-right slow for trading in all asset classes, and futures were no exception. In fact, the market volume and action got so bad by the end of the month, heading into Labor Day, that we stopped making calls for the last three days of the month, as we didn’t see the upside potential. In total, we had only 31 trades trigger in the month, barely half of the 60 that triggered in July (and keep in mind, July had the Fourth of July holiday on a Wednesday). It was literally one of the most anemic trading months I can recall…ever.

While we had some success early in August with a few nice winners, we had a lot more stop outs in the second half of the month, and it probably would have been worse if we had kept pushing up trades for the last few days, where NASDAQ volume dropped to 1.2 billion shares per day to end the month.

Not much else to say except that we move on now to September, where things tend to slowly pick back up, and that leads us into the better six months of the trading year starting in October. The first (short) week of September has already been better than August.

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/6/12

Wednesday, September 5th, 2012

The ES futures remain trapped in the range with no resolution yet. There is nothing new technically.

The NQ’s were slightly lower on the day settling right at the trend defining, or non-defining, 10ema. Note that like the ES futures the MACD is negative and heading lower.

The total put/call ratio took a hit but did not get to the overbought threshold.

Trin is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The double top in both the SPX and NDX continues to be the sheriff in town and the most important pattern in the major indexes.

The NDX/SPX cross has rallied to near the prior high but has not broken out. If this chart does not breakout to the upside the double top in the cash indicies will make good and take prices lower. Also worth noting is that if the SPX breaks out to a new high and is not confirmed by the NDX/SPX cross chart the breakout in the SPX will likely fail since the NDX would be showing relative weaknes..

The defensive XAU was the top major sector on the day. There is key overhead at the 200dma and 8/8 level on the chart.

The BKX did nothing and is still trapped, ‘nuff said.

The OSX lost a little more gound but is still 9 days down in the Seeker count.

The SOX made a new low close on the move and is now below the 10ema and 200dma. Expect good support at the 50dma if it gets there.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 9/5/12

Tuesday, September 4th, 2012

The ES had a wild ride recouping some steep program driven losses mid-day to settle flat on the day. Price has settled 3 times now in the same area so when this range is resolved it should be powerful.

The NQ futures were slightly higher on the day with the same overall pattern as the ES. Price is still consolidating the area of the prior high. Note the key 8/8 level just above those levels.

The 10-day Trin is moving towards the oversold threshold of 1.35+

The total put/call ratio is neutral:

Multi sector daily chart;

The SOX/NDX cross continues to spin its wheels and not gain any traction. Note that the pattern is setting up a reverse H & S.

The BTK was the top gun on the day and cleared the recent trading range. The 8/8 level could be stiff overhead on the first try and may be a point of necessary consolidation.

The BKX remains trapped and is likely the key to getting a resolution to the ES range.

The SOX was weaker than the NDX and broad market today. This is a negative divergence and will hold back the overall NDX until the relative weakness is shaken off.

The OSX was the weakest major index and remains below the 200dma.

Oil:

Gold has broken out and settled above the key 8/8 level. The next overhead will be the +2/8 Murrey math level. Note that the MACD is not yet overbought.

Silver has the same pattern as gold with a little more relative strength due to its higher volatility.

Futures Calls Recap for 9/4/12

Tuesday, September 4th, 2012

A nice setup in the morning on the ES didn’t end up triggering until the afternoon. Market volume was still weak coming back from the Holiday, closing out at 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares, but hopefully that will rise as the week moves along.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1405.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and moved stop up and stopped in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/28/12

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

The lightest non-Holiday volume day of the year. One ES call triggered short on news and stopped, and we didn’t add any more in a sweep-y mess. NASDAQ volume ended at 1.2 billion shares. This might be the rest of the week. Certainly, Friday is going to be awful.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at A at 1403.75 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/23/12

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

The ES found support at the 10ema and closed unchanged. Keep in mind that changes in trend take time as both the bulls and bears take measure of each other.

The NQ’s showed relative strength gaining 7 on the day which was good enough to match the high close of the move. Keep in mind that the bulls have major overhead at the 8/8 level 2812.50.

The total put/call ratio is climbing but nowhere near climatic.

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio took a good sized hit which is a defensive development.

The double tops are still in place for both the SPX and NDX.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day. This is a new high close on the move and qualifies the higher low.

The OSX was little changed on the day. There is a critical convergence of the 10ema and the 200dma which will quickly turn the chart negative if they are lost.

The SOX was bearishly much weaker than the NDX and broad market. Price settled below the 10ema and a downside follow through will weigh heavily on all the key averages. Be on guard for the MACD to confirm a turn.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Bonds:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/22/12

Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012

An even lighter volume day in the market (only 1.35 NASDAQ shares traded) led to two trades that barely hit their partials and nothing more.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

A triggered that was meant for the morning triggered long at A at 1412.75 into the Value Area, hit the first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2762.00, hit first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/22/12

Tuesday, August 21st, 2012

The ES lost 2 on the day but there were some notable technical developments to talk about. Price made a new high but closed lower on the day. Also Tuesday’s candle engulfed the prior day’s which makes a better case for the bears. The only lacking ingredient was more volume. Note that the volume was higher than average but not decisive.

The NQ futures posted almost exactly the same day as the ES. The technicals are very similar and the rest of the week will be very important.

At key turning points it’s always useful to take a look at the DIA. This etf is a well traded basket that tracks the performance of the Dow Jones Industrials. At key turning points there is typically a surge in volume that is not always apparent in other trading vehicles. We don’t see one here.

The 10-day trin still has overbought energy:

The put/call ratio still has yet to record a super-climatic reading:

Multi sector daily chart:

The double top remains in place for both the Naz and broad market:

The SOX cross still has not followed through:

Longer-term traders always like to look at the Dow/gold cross. It has been moving in favor of stocks but hasn’t yet broken out. This will be the ULTIMATE buy confirmation.

The BKX continues to bearishly lag the SPX. There has been no higher high in the banks and it is holding back the broad market and keeping the double top in the conversation.

The bulls can point to the relative strength in the Ndx over the Spx. A higher high would be very bullish and a failure at the relative strength retest adds to the bear case.

Guess what, the defensive XAU was the top gun on the day. Surprise! Well, not rally, the XAU tracking GDX was one of our first long ideas and worked. Price closed above the active static trend line and when the June highs are taken out the 200dma and 8/8 Murrey math levels are in play.

The BKX was higher on the day but lost all of its relative strength intraday. Also intraday, the Seeker risk level was tested and it rejected the advance. The sell signal is still active and rallies should be sold until it is broken.

The SOX was exactly flat but did not break the 10ema. The 10ema is the deal breaker for the bulls.

The OSX posted a midrange outside day down:

Oil got stuffed by the 200dma.

Gold:

Silver is attempting a saucer breakout:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/21/12

Monday, August 20th, 2012

The ES was unchanged on the day after recouping an early drop. There is nothing new technically other than the CCI has totally stagnated.

The NQ futures were higher by 4 on the day. The pattern has left price right in the area of the prior March high. Note that the Seeker countdown is still very immature and only 4 days up.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

Late last week, the 10-day Trin recorded the first overbought reading since March. If the market should choose to turn down, it has sufficient energy to cover some ground and begin a decent move.

Multi sector daily chart:

The budding reversal in the SOX/NDX cross has lost momentum and taken a bearish turn. A true failure here would be very bearish for the overall NDX.

Both the NDX and SPX are grappling with their prior highs and are double top until they breakout and qualify new highs.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day closing right near the static trend line.

The BKX was higher on the day but still has an active Seeker sell signal in place until the risk line is broken.

The BTK treaded water and is showing relative weakness.

The OSX was weak all day and should be showing relative strength at this point in the “revovery”. Price remains above all the major moving averages. The next bull target will be the 7/8 Gann level which is exactly the active static trend line.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day and traded all the way down to one of the key MA’s. If the chart closes below the 10ema the pattern will turn short term negative.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/20/12

Monday, August 20th, 2012

Another horrible volume day in the markets, with NASDAQ volume ending at only 1.3 billion shares. Barely worth trading. We had a winner in the ES and a double stop in the NQ. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short under LBreak after setting it perfectly at A at 1411.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s NQ triggered short at 2767.75 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then again at B and the same result:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/16/12

Thursday, August 16th, 2012

One stop out, one winner, and one trade that took too long to get going heading into lunch so we killed it.

Net ticks: +1 tick.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered ong at 1408.25 at A. After 30 minutes, it hadn’t move more than 2 ticks in either direction, so we closed the trade heading into lunch, although it ended up working just after that:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2743.50 and stopped. Triggered long at 2748.50 at B, hit first target for six ticks, raised stop and stopped at 2753.50 at C:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/16/12

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

The ES was higher by 2 on the day and recorded 9 bars up in the Seeker count. Price remains lackluster and markets can fall of their own weight. There are no new technical developments but keep an eye on the MACD.

The NQ futures were relatively strong vs. the SP up 13 on the day. This is a new high close on the move and also completes the minimum Seeker 9 bar setup. Note that this chart has much more extension than the SP side which leaves more room for a retracement.

10-day Trin is still neutral:

The put/call ratio is still in the comfort zone.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BTK was the top gun on the day by breaking above the recent range. The overhead open gap at 1487 is the next target then the 8/8 Murrey math level.

The SOX was strong but posted and inside day so nothing new technically.

The BKX is still frustratingly stuck in the same range. This was a new high close if your eyes are good enough to spot it. The Seeker count is now 9 days up.

The XAU is still orphaned and was unchanged on the day. The potential higher low is still in place.

The OSX is stuck at the convergence of the 10ema and the 50sma. Price very subtly and bearishly closed below yesterday’s low.

Oil closed at a new high on the move and the 200dma is the next hurdle for the bulls.

Gold:

Silver:

The BKX continues to bearishly lag the broad market.

The NDX/SPX cross remains healthy with relative strength in the Naz side.

Futures Calls Recap for 8/15/12

Wednesday, August 15th, 2012

Two winners for the session (see ES and ER sections below), although they only went to their first targets in light volume early. NASDAQ volume ended at only 1.3 billion shares again, and we didn’t see options unraveling.

Net ticks: +6 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1402.50 at A, hit first target for six ticks, stopped second half under the entry:

ER:

Triggered long at 797.40 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks, stopped second half under entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/15/12

Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

The ES was lower by one on the day but posted a range high distribution candle. This is 8 days up in the Seeker count so a disruption in trend should be expected in the next 48 hours.

The NQ futures were stopped cold by the active static trend line and posted a bearish range high red candle. The first retracement objective will be the rising 10ema.

The total put/call ratio has as downward bias but hasn’t recorded a climatic reading yet.

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio is making slow progress but has yet to make a definitive break in favor of equities over hard the golden hard asset.

The SOX/NDX cross did not follow through on the breakout just yet.

The BKX was flat on the day and hasn’t budged on a closing basis for days. When this range resolves, it should be very powerful.

The OSX was lower on the day and will turn short term negative if it loses the 10ema(blue).

The XAU is barely holding above the 10ema.

The SOX took a big hit and was much weaker than the Naz. The SOX usually leads the Naz and the Naz usually leads the SP.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Copper:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/14/12

Tuesday, August 14th, 2012

More sweeps than I can recall seeing in a session as the ES and NQ couldn’t do anything right and volume was once again weak at 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: -21 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1403.25 and stopped. Re-entered at B and stopped:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered short at A at 2731.00 and stopped:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/14/12

Monday, August 13th, 2012

The ES did nothing on the day after recouping a mid day drop. The futures closed exactly unchanged on the day.

The NQ futures were up 7 on the day and was good enough to expand the high close of the rally. Monday, price tested the static trend line intraday but settled below it. This will be the big level on Tuesday.

The P/C ratio is showing nothing notable.

The 10-day Trin remains neutral.

The SOX is gaining relative strength on the multi sector daily chart:

The SOX has broken out in relative strength vs. the NDX and is a key reason that the tech shares have been recently outperforming the broad market. This is a fresh change in trend and had bullish implications for equities overall.

SPX vs. NDX:

The BKX was flat on the day and remains boxed up in the recent range with the Seeker sell signal keeping watch on any price advance.

The BTK is still contained below the key 50dma.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

TLT:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/10/12

Friday, August 10th, 2012

Two stop outs (ES and NQ) and a small winner (NQ) on a narrow day in the markets. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -7.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long into the Value Area after perfectly setting the Value Area…entry was 1398.25 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, but not a re-entry candidate because it spent time above the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Triggered long at A 2713.00 and stopped for 7 ticks, also not a re-entry candidate. Separate trade triggered long at B and hit first target for 6 ticks and closed the last piece around that level for end of session (2719.00 final exit):

Futures Calls Recap for 8/9/12

Thursday, August 9th, 2012

A narrow ranged day in the markets (6 ES points) with only 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares. Mark’s ES call stopped twice, see ES section below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Triggered long at 1402.00 at A and stopped and at B and stopped (both times for 7 ticks):

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/9/12

Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

The ES continues to grind, adding only one handle to the high close of the move. Settlement was right at the static trend line and this will continue to influence price. The next level that will come into play will be the open gap at 1409.

The NQ futures posted an inside day with a small loss. Price remains contained below the static trend line.

The 10-day Trin is approaching but not yet reading overbought for the market.

Multi sector daily chart shows the recent relative strength in the SOX.

The SOX/NDX cross is very close to a key reversal, stay tuned.

SPX/NDX still bullishly shows relative strength in the NDX.

The SOX was the top main sector on the day but was contained within the prior day’s range.

The BKX was flat on the day, basically mirroring the prior session. Keep in mind that there is still and active Seeker sell signal.

The XAU got stuffed by the 50dma and offered us a nice short trade in the GDX on Wednesday. This is a measuring day so tomorrow’s action will be important.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day and appears to be a source of funds.

Oil:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/8/12

Wednesday, August 8th, 2012

Gains at least to the first target on the ES and NQ, see those sections below.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1397.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry:

NQ:

Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.

Mark’s trade triggered long at A at 2713.00, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/8/12

Tuesday, August 7th, 2012

The ES made a new high on the day but is still contained below the active static trend line which was tested intraday. There is little to add here, this is the line in the sand before a retest of the highs.

The NQ futures were higher on the day by 24 and are within shooting distance of the active static trend line.

The 10-day Trin is still around the neutral area.

Multi-sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross made new high on the move and is setting up for a reversal.

The SOX was the top gun on the day making a new high close on the move. Keep in mind that there is an active Seeker buy signal in place.

The XAU closed right at the 50dma and looks ready to take a run at the static trend line.

The OSX matched the high close of the recent range and is poised for a very important brealout.

The BKX also closed at a new high on the move and still has an active Seeker sell signal in place.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tlt:

Copper:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/7/12

Monday, August 6th, 2012

The ES gained one handle on the day but left a distribution candle at range high. At Tradesight we call this particular setup as camouflage sell signal. This happens when there are two up days followed by an up day that closes BELOW the opening price. This is a notable time for this to develop since it is at range high in the move and below the active static trend line.

There was another notable development today where while the ES was higher all day, so was the VIX. This is a divergence and a warning sign to traders. This usually develops when institutional traders are no longer strong buyers and adding protection to their portfolios.

The NQ futures were higher on the day by 15 showing good relative strength vs. the ES. Note that while the ES posted a camouflage sell signal, the NQ’s did not because the close was above the day’s open. The open gap form June has been closes.

The 10-day Trin remains neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX has yet to make the big turn and show relative strength vs. the Naz. The turn is on deck and would be very bullish if it materializes.

The SPX has recently been showing relative strength vs. the BKX which is a problem if it persists.

The defensive XAU was top gun on the day.

The BTK posted an indecisive inside day.

The SOX closed right at the recent high of the range and is staging right at the 200dma.

The OSX was very positive on the day and is consolidating below the recent highs. Note that there are no Seeker bar counts standing in the way of higher price.

The BKX has a Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in place in a very flat pattern. How this develops will be very important for the overall helath of the broad market.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

TLT:

Tradesight July 2012 Futures Results

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

Before we get to July’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here.

Tradesight Tick Results for June 2012

Number of trades: 60
Number of losers: 26
Winning percentage: 56.7%
Net ticks: +16

Reminder: Here are the rules.

1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.

2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.

3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.

4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.

You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.

Tradesight Tick Results for July 2012

Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 51.4%
Net ticks: +11 (+27 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)

July was an unusual month for trading in general. Volume and range continue to be less than average, but there was something else here. The Fourth of July Holiday was on a Wednesday to start the month. That pretty much ruins a week, especially during the summer, and makes it like the last week of the year between Christmas and New Year’s Day. No one trades when a Holiday is Wednesday in the summer, and we warned people as such to either skip the week or go to small size. However, these results are not “sized,” they are just raw data numbers based on the calls, and we make calls each day except for Holidays (Fourth of July was a Wednesday) and half days (the day before).

July suffered from a lot of light volume days, well under the 1.5 billion share mark on NASDAQ volume. We prefer to see 1.8 billion shares daily or better, and it didn’t happen often, although the second half of the month was much better than the first. We made way less calls than normal and fewer trades triggered (50% less than the prior month). August is typically one of the easier trading months of the year, although volume needs to improve a tad (volume in August is never huge, but it needs to be more than 1.5 billion a day on average on the NASDAQ).

Something should shake loose soon and get this market moving one way or the other, and we can get back to more normal trading.

Futures Calls Recap for 8/3/12

Friday, August 3rd, 2012

Another winning session on the ES to close out the week. The trade had to be in the morning, because the market went flat for the rest of the session. Volume was 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares.

Net ticks: +9 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ intraday with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber. Note that the Comber 13 sell signal nailed the HIGH of the session on the 5-minute chart TO THE BAR again:

ES:

Mark’s long over the opening range bar triggered at 1382.50 at A, hit 6 ticks for the first target, and he updated the stop twice and stopped the final piece at 1385.50:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/2/12

Thursday, August 2nd, 2012

A winning session on the ES as the market saw better volume. NASDAQ volume totaled 1.8 billion shares at the close. See ES section below for the trade recap.

Net ticks: +12 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Comber, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1362.50 over the LPT after gapped down, hit 6 ticks for a partial, stop was adjusted twice and stopped at 1367.00 for 18 ticks to final exit:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/2/12

Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

The ES lost 4 handles in very indecisive fashion which leaves the mini pattern still boxed up and in need of resolution. The real move after an FOMC decision often comes the day after the announcement so be ready for a breakout of this range on Thursday.

The NQ futures were slightly weaker than the broad market and posted a midrange outside day down. The upward trend channel is still positive and price is retreating from the key 4/8 Murrey math level.

The 10-day Trin is neither overbought nor oversold.

Multi sector daily chart:

The OSX was the top gun on the day.

The SOX was higher on the day but bearishly closed below the opening price.

The BTK was a big loser, closing at a new low on the move. Keep an eye on a close under the 6/8 level.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

TLT:

JJC:

Futures Calls Recap for 8/1/12

Wednesday, August 1st, 2012

A decent move early after a gap up, and volume was weak for the session despite the Fed announcement in the afternoon. The bulk of the session was flat between the 60-minute mark and the Fed announcement at 2:15 pm EST.

One winner and another trigger that worked, but triggered right on the Fed announcement, and we don’t suggest taking trades on that level of news. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +2.5 pips.

As usual, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Comber, and VWAP:

ES:

We had a short under 1373.50, which triggered at A right on the Fed news, but should not have been taken but would have worked:

NQ:

We use half points as ticks on the NQ.

Triggered short at A at 2644.00, hit first target at 2641.00, and the second half stopped right over the entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 8/1/12

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

Put/call ratio alert–see below!

The futures are still marking time before the FOMC decision and commentary Wednesday. On the day, the ES lost 6 handles but is still short term positive. Note that the CCI has lost it’s positive bias.

The NQ was relatively strong on the day and posted an inside candle. This will make the move out of the 2 day range better than if it wandered and swept on Tuesday

The put/call ratio recorded a climatically bullish reading. This is a contra indicator and loads the market with over enthusiasm.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BKX is bearishly showing relative weakness vs. the broad market tracking SPX.

The SOX was the only major index up on the day. The index made a new high on the move but not a new closing high. The 200dma is the important level overhead.

The BKX is still one strong day away from a Seeker 13 sell signal.

The XAU was weaker than the broad market but still has 2x bottom potential.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and could be making an important pivot under the 200dma. Tomorrow is key.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/31/12

Monday, July 30th, 2012

The ES lost 2 on the day posting a range high doji. Tradesight subscribers and Twitter followers got an early indication today that the VIX was signaling that there would be no net advance in the ES today. Since both the ES and the VIX were higher on the day there was a divergence between the two that never lasts a whole trading session. The VIX being more institutional in nature always wins the battle. Since the VIX was not supporting the higher prices in the futures they were doomed to fail. Tradesight subscribers benefitted from the Analysts’ short calls.

The NQ also posted a doji day and remains at the upper boundary of the positive trend channel.

The 10-day Trin is approaching the overbought level of 0.85 or lower. Close but no signal yet.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX ratio is close to reversing but has not yet buttered the biscut.

The defensive XAU was top gun on the day, still attempting to put in a double bottom on the daily chart.

The BKX is now 12 days up and has a Seeker sell signal on deck,

The SOX still needs to clear 390 to break out of the recent range and turn the trend positive in all time frames.

The OSX was a poor performer still not able to break above the 200dma. The next price objective will be the measured move target off the reverse H&S reversal.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver

Futures Calls Recap for 7/27/12

Friday, July 27th, 2012

A loser and a winner to close out the week. Volume was strong early, then drifted off, spiked back up on news out of Europe over lunch, and then drifted off again for the afternoon on a summer Friday.

Volume has been up and earnings and GDP are behind us, so I’m expecting better action next week with less gaps.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Comber, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1365.75, stopped just barely for 7 ticks, and then retriggered right after that, hit first target, raised stop under the entry and stopped at 1365.50:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/26/12

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

We had a big gap in the market that took us well above our key Levels, making setups for futures difficult (the ES only touch the R2, and that was the low of the session). One stop out and the retrigger worked, see ES below.

Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start with the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Comber, and VWAP (now using Comber on these):

ES:

Triggered short under opening lows at 1352.50 at A, stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and adjusted stop to final exit at 1351.25:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/26/12

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

There is nothing new technically in the ES because it traded inside the prior day’s range. The futures gained 5 on the day but it means little when range bound. Options unraveling remains to be seen.

The NQ futures were lower on the day but posted a camouflage buy signal by closing above the open. The upward trend channel remains intact.

Nothing doing in the total put/call ratios as it remains neutral.

The 10-day Trin is pretty much in the neutral zone:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX is at the door or a very bullish reversal:

The strength of gold made the Dow/gold ratio take a hit.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day not quite recording a key reversal day.

The SOX gapped higher and held it. Keep in mind that there is an active Seeker reversal on the chart:

The BTK posted an inside day.

The BKX had relative strength but is still confined within the general 3 day trading range. Price is on the north side of all but the 10ma.

The OSX was the last laggard of the major indexes. Note that there is still room in the bar count for more upside.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

The TLT closed at a new high on the move and disqualified the Seeker sell signal. This instrument appears to be in the blow-off stage which can always run very, very far.

Futures Calls Recap for 7/25/12

Wednesday, July 25th, 2012

We had a winner again the ES, and the second half stopped in the money. Another call in the afternoon that was set up beautifully didn’t trigger. See ES section below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1335.75, hit 6 ticks for a first target, and stopped the second half 5 ticks in the money:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/25/12

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

The ES lost 14 on the day which didn’t feel too bad until the prior day’s range was taken out. This left the settlement right at the 50dma with next support at the 200dma.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by 31 which was a parity move with the broad market. Price touched but did not break the key 0/8 support level. Keep in mind that IF the 200dma is lost then so will the 200dma. In all of the pullbacks in the current move price, both settlement and lows have been above the 200dma.

The 10-day Trin has used most of the oversold energy and has retreated to the neutral area.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The BKX was the top gun on the day unchanged on the day and right at the 50dma.

The XAU was a good relative performer and did not produce a new low on the move.

The SOX was lower by a small amount and traded inside yesterday’s candle. A break out of the current range should have some punch.

The OSX was weak on the day but was contained within the prior candle, so yet another inside day to be resolved.

The BTK seems to be rolling over. The index was weaker than the broad market and Naz.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/24/12

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

We had an ES trade that worked, an NQ trade that didn’t, and then an NQ trade later that worked for a couple of ticks before I closed it out for lack of action. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -2.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start out by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Mark’s trade triggered short at A at 1342.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and then stopped the second half over the entry, just barely, before pushing lower. Just missed a bigger trade on that one:

NQ:

Remember that on the NQ, we use half points as ticks.

Early triggered under the Pivot at A stopped for 7 ticks. Later, we set the S1 at B, called the short under it that triggered at C, and closed it out for 2 ticks when it took 15 minutes to do nothing (and then it proceeded to go):

Tradesight Market Overview for 7/24/12

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

The ES lost 15 on the day but managed to post a camouflage buy signal by settling above the open. Price remains in the upward regression channel. The camouflage signal implies that the ES will take out Monday’s high before the low.

The NQ was lower by 34 on the day but like the SP side settled with a camo buy signal with the same implications.

Interestingly the 10-day Trin worked lower on the day but still has oversold energy in it.

The total put/call ratio is neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

The Sox/Ndx cross has bounced off the lower regression channel and has more room to nit the top and is back to the midpoint of the range. Keep a close eye on a break back above the midpoint which would be the first step for a real reversal.

The weekly Dow/gold cross is very slowly making progress. The ultimate breakout remains the upper regression channel.

The SOX filled the dirty gap and still has an active Seeker exhaustion in place.

The BKX closed right at the 50dma.

The BTK is retreating the overbought 9/8 level. Expect support at the 50dma.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day but did not make a new low on the move. The CCI suggests that the reduced selling pressure could produce a double bottom. Stay tuned.

The TLT put in what could be a very important range high camouflage sell signal. Keep in mind the Seeker sell signal is still active.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/23/12

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

Started out the week with an ES call that turned into a gain using our market directional tool. See that section below.

Net ticks: +8 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long over the early midpoint at A at 1335.50, hit first target for six ticks, raised stop and stopped at 1338.00 at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/20/12

Monday, July 23rd, 2012

Options expiration is never an exciting day and is usually a good time to lower trading size, and this was no exception. We closed out the week with the only negative day of the week, with one ES short that triggered twice and stopped both times. See that section below.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, we’ll start with a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1361.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Retriggered again at A ten minutes later. Further triggers were cancelled:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/19/12

Thursday, July 19th, 2012

Several calls early, but it was the ES short that triggered and worked. See that section below.

Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.

As usual, we will start with the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1369.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final piece at 1368.50:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/18/12

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

A winner on the NQ and a loser on the ES resulted in net gains again in the session. See both sections below for their recaps.

Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered long at 1366.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Triggered long at 2600.00 at A and hit first target for 6 ticks. Stop was raised a couple of times and finally stopped the second half at 2608.50 for 17 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/19/12

Wednesday, July 18th, 2012

The NQ futures were higher on the day by 33 handles easily topping the relative performance from the SP side of the market. Price settled just below the prior high water mark on the move. The next critical overhead that will come into play is the 4/8 Murrey math level.

The ES was higher by 9 on the day and is in a very similar technical condition to the NQ. The Naz has been trailing the SP side so an overall bullish move in the market will need to have the Naz side get involved.

The 10-day Trin still has oversold energy:

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio is on the verge of a bullish breakout. This means that investors are favoring equities over the defensive alternate asset gold.

The Sox was the top gun on the day making good on the Seeker exhaustion signal put in place yesterday. Keep a list of long ideas handy and be ready to be aggressive on Friday after a measuring day Thursday.

The OSX is approaching the neckline of a reverse H&S pattern. Be patient and wait for it to setup.

The BKX was weak all day and was the big drag on the relative performance of the SP Wednesday. The trend remains positive but note that the CCI is diverging which is a warning for the bulls.

The defensive XAU was the last laggard on the day and is now 9 bars down in the Seeker setup phase. Possible lateral consolidation or bounce in the next couple of trading days should be in the cards.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/18/12

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day by 11 which produced a settlement above the Friday and Monday high. Price has made good on a measuring day breakout and is now above all the major moving averages.

The NQ futures lagged the broad market but managed to gain 16 on the day. The one bogey on the chart is that today’s settlement was below the open which makes a camouflage sell signal.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

The 10-day Trin still has oversold energy:

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio is moving closer to upper channel boundary.

The NDX is bearishly losing its relative strength vs. the SPX. This is a chart to watch closely.

The OSX was the top gun on the day and is very close to qualifying the recent higher low. Keep in mind that there is still an active seeker buy signal.

The BTK was a close second to the OSX and is very close to a 52 week breakout. Be sure to have a list of long ideas in this sector.

The SOX made a new low on the move and recorded a Seeker exhaustion buy. Have a list of reversal ideas handy for the rest of the week.

The XAU was the last laggard but did not make a new low on the move.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/17/12

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

Nice winner in the ES on the short side after the market gapped up and broke lower to fill the gap. It was a classic Value Area play. See ES section below.

Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start out by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1350.75 breaking into the Value Area, then hit the first target for 6 ticks, then lowered the stop several times and stopped at 1346 at B for 19 ticks to final exit:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/17/12

Monday, July 16th, 2012

The ES lost 4 on the day settling right around where they opened today. This could have been a classic measuring day where Friday’s explosive buying need to take a breather. The key near-term level is Friday’s high and also the midpoint from the same candle.

The NQ futures put in a measuring day, losing 6 handles on the day. The same technicals as the SP futures apply.

The 10-day Trin still has oversold energy loaded.

The BTK is still the top gun on the multi sector chart:

The SOX/NDX chart continues to make new lows which is overall bearish for both the NDX and SPX.

The BTK was the top gun on the day but is still a ways away from breaking out. Keep a close eye on the individual index members that are near 52 week highs.

The OSX bullishly closed above the 50dma. This is the first close above this key benchmark since March. Note that there is an active Seeker buy signal in place.

The BKX was flat on the day doing a very nice job of measuring off Friday’s gains.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day. Keep a close eye on the Seeker count which has a buy signal on deck.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/16/12

Monday, July 16th, 2012

Mark put in two calls that both worked to their first targets. See ES and NQ sections below for a positive start to the week in futures.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start with a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A at 1350.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and moved stop under the entry and stopped about 15 minutes later:

NQ:

Remember that we use half points as ticks on the NQ. Triggered short at A at 2567.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, stop was moved to just over the entry and stopped. Note that it reached down to the Value Area Low and that was it:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/12/12

Thursday, July 12th, 2012

Started out good with a nice ER winner early, but then two ES stop outs erased that as market volume went lighter again (not as bad as Monday though). NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, we will start with the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s short triggered at 1321.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. Long idea breaking into the Value Area and back above the Pivot for the gap fill triggered at B and stopped (great setup, no market action) for 7 ticks:

ER:

Triggered short under LPT at 780.20 at A, hit first target at B for 8 ticks, and lowered stop twice and stopped the final piece for 11 ticks:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/11/12

Wednesday, July 11th, 2012

An interesting day. The ES only barely touched a single level for the whole session, finding support at LBreak. Don’t think I’ve ever seen a day like that. Short trade triggered and stopped early, market volume was too light after that to bother. The only action in the afternoon was a spike down on the release of the Fed minutes from the last meeting. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ intraday with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered short at 1334.00 at A and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/10/12

Tuesday, July 10th, 2012

A nice day. We had a good setup early on the ES against the UPT which triggered and stopped, but then shorts in the NQ and ER set up nicely and worked well. See those sections below.

Net ticks: +29 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our Seeker, VWAP, and market directional lines:

ES:

Triggered long over UPT after setting that level exactly as the high of the first 5-minute bar…a great setup, but triggered at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Remember that on the NQ, we use half points as ticks, not quarter points as the market does. Mark had a short entry under the opening bar low at 2617.00, which triggered at A, hit first target for six ticks at 2614.00, and then he adjusted the stop a few times and stopped the final piece at 2606.50 for a net 13.5 (6 ticks for first half, 21 for second half, averages to 13.5):

ER:

Finally, the ER (Russell 2000) gapped over the UPT and used it as the low of the first bar. When the market rolled, I added a short under that level at 806.50 at A, hit 7 ticks in this case for a first target, and lowered the stop a few times before the final exit at B at 802.70 for an average of 22.5 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/10/12

Monday, July 9th, 2012

The NDX lost 2 points on 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares, a very weak volume day. Note that for those that understand the Tradesight Seeker tool, technically, the NDX had a 13 buy signal on Friday, although if you use the “8 bar qualifier,” it did not meet that criteria:

Even more interesting is that the S&P (down 2) did the same with what would have been a 13 buy signal on Friday, but the asterisk shows up in its place with the qualifier because we were not under bar 8. The reason that this is interesting on the S&P is because bar 8 is the low day back at the beginning of June, so we would have to get all the way under that bar and close one day to get the ultimate 13 buy signal, which is strange to see:

The SOX lost 5:

NBI gained 7:

Oil closed at $85.72, and it is interesting here to see the decline since May (a strange time of year for price declines in oil, but perhaps a function of a weaker global economy). Also, note the 13 buy signal over a week ago that led to the current rally:

All of the above being said, July is usually a great trading month in terms of market volatility. We had very green trading sessions on Friday and Monday, but that was despite the weak volume in the market. Now that the Holiday is behind us, we’re going to need to see that volume pick up if we want a chance to see the rest of the month play out good.

Futures Calls Recap for 7/9/12

Monday, July 9th, 2012

Volume ended up being worse than last week, and although stocks moved well, the futures market was extremely dull and spent most of the session stuck in the Value Area. Although we encourage less size in a light-volume environment, our raw data totals only account for net ticks. Mark’s ES short triggered twice and stopped both times (see ES below). The long idea never triggered.

Net ticks: -14 ticks.

As usual, we will start with a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Trigger was short at 1342.75, which triggered at A and stopped for 7 ticks immediately, then triggered 10 minutes later at B and took about 30 minutes before it finally stopped. Trade was cancelled going forward due to the horrible market volume:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/6/12

Friday, July 6th, 2012

Another light volume day as expected, but this time we squeaked out minor gains on just two calls. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +3 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Triggered short under LBreak at A at 2625.50, hit 6 ticks (remember, we use half points as ticks on the NQ) at 2622.50, and lowered stop and stopped the final piece at 2619.25 at B:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/5/12

Thursday, July 5th, 2012

Volume ended up being even worse today in the market than Monday. We did go ahead with two calls early despite the volume. The first one worked and the second one did not (although the second setup was terrific). See ES section below.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start with a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker. Note that even in this light volume day, the Seeker gave a 13 sell signal at the high of the session (and the Value Area High):

ES:

Triggered short at A at 1359.00, hit the first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry. The market then recovered and we had a nice setup with the ES moving back into the Value Area and the Pivot being the exact high from the morning action, so we triggered long over the Pivot at B, but nothing happened for over 30 minutes and it finally stopped for 7 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/5/12

Wednesday, July 4th, 2012

The ES posted a relatively inside day where a 10 handle gap down was recovered.
Since trade was contained within the prior day’s there is nothing new technically.

The NQ futures were higher by 27 on the day and are just below the key 4/8 midpoint of the Murrey math box.

The 10-day Trin remains loaded with oversold energy and buying power.

The NDX continues to show relative strength vs. the SPX.

The SOX/NDX cross is getting closer to a bullish change in trend. Keep a close eye on this chart for a higher high.

The Dow/gold chart has yet to breakout which would be a huge buy signal for the long term equity bulls.

The OSX was top gun Tuesday making good on the Seeker 13 exhaustion buy signal. A close above the 50dma will get the attention of the media and many closet oil bulls. The next real challenge will be the 4/8 level up at 218.

The weak sensitive XAU could be making a higher low but won’t be qualified until a close above the June high.

The SOX closed above the June high and right at the 200dma. Note that the Seeker still has not yet recorded a buy signal.

The BKX made a new high but unimpressively so. The next important level is the 47 level which is the April low and May breakdown.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 7/3/12

Monday, July 2nd, 2012

The ES gained one handle on the day but left a bearish range high camouflage sell signal on the chart.

Naz was higher by 4 on the day but also bearishly settled below the close.

The 10-day Trin is still in oversold territory with keeps the overall market loaded with oversold energy.

The put/call ratio is still neutral so no signal to be found here.

The Multi sector daily chart shows that the BTK is poised for a relative strength breakout.

The BTK was the top gun on the day, very close to the May highs and the only major sector ready for a legitimate breakout.

The BKX was higher by 0.6% on the day and good enough for a new high on the move. Note that price is now back above all of the major moving averages.

The SOX was lower on the day and still waiting for the Seeker exhaustion buy which must happen at or below the swing low close of the move.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 7/2/12

Monday, July 2nd, 2012

As expected, a waste of time with no one around trading for the Holiday week. Tuesday is only a half day, so we most likely won’t have any calls. The market is closed Wednesday. We resume Thursday, although I don’t expect any action until Monday.

We did make one call early just to test, but there was no action.

Net ticks: -7 ticks.

As usual, we will start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short at A (by a tick) heading into the Value Area and stopped:

Tradesight June 2012 Futures Results

Friday, June 29th, 2012

Tradesight officially added a Futures trade call service back in 2011, and two months ago we added a daily report for the futures service. This allows us to recap for archival purposes our results. Currently, we have 10 years of day-by-day trade results in our stock service (about 18 months worth available without a subscription in the Market Blog on the website). We have 7 years of day-by-day trade results for our Forex service (again with 18 months worth available without a subscription in the Market Blog). We have also been tabulating the monthly pip results in our Forex service for about 18 months as well. You can read those monthly results here.

Now that we have the daily Futures report, which you can scroll through here, we have an archive building of the Futures trade calls. With that, we will also be doing a monthly summary of net results.

A few words before we begin our first official monthly report. Our Futures service revolves around the Tradesight Futures Levels, which include a series of calculated support and resistance points that we teach how to use in our 10 our Futures training course. The goal of the course is to teach you how to use these levels so that you can use them all day long on the (currently) six contracts that we offer (ES, NQ, YM, ER, QM, and YG). We don’t set out to teach people how to follow our calls. Our courses teach you how to trade on your own, so you would never need our calls by themselves. The calls built into the services are example calls using the material that we teach to help people see the most valid setups that we can find. Because the ES is the most liquid and commonly traded contract, the majority of our calls for the service are in the ES, but we do reach out when we see better setups in the other contracts and make calls there. Someone who has taken the course, however, should be able to apply the rules and concepts to the contracts that they prefer, so if you like trading the QM (crude oil), there is no reason that you can’t. That’s why we provide the data. We simply offer a handful of calls daily that focus on key setups in the active times of day, and those calls are the ones that we summarize in the futures service daily (and archive). And those are the calls that we total up here, in the end of month report, for result tracking purposes.

So, with that out of the way, let’s dig into our first official month of results.

For tracking purposes, there is no adjustment for size in the results. Each trade is taken as an equal-sized trade, with an entry and stop (the stop on ES and NQ is always 6 ticks, sometimes more on something like the ER). We have a first target where we sell half and then we manage the second half of the trade to a final exit. So, these results assume the same size is taken on all trades, which in reality is not what should be done. For example, we came into the last week of June stating that between the already light market volume and the fact that the market would be focused on end of quarter window-dressing, the environment would be rougher. Our courses detail how to adjust for this in your trading size.

As always seems to be the case when launching a new product, the market wasn’t extremely cooperative for our first month. Volume has been way off and got worse as the month progressed. Despite that, we had a nice month going heading into the last week, but we net lost over 30 ticks in the last week (again, somewhat predictable based on volume and end of quarter, which kept intraday movement contained most of the days until the final big gap up on the last day of the month).

We track our results in terms of win/loss ratio and net ticks gained. Here is a breakdown of the month of June:

Number of trades: 60

Number of winners: 34

Win percentage: 56.7%

Net ticks: +16

Our goal in trading over time is to win between 60-70 percent of our trades. This month fell about 3% short of that, which is fine considering the environment. The other factor is that many of the trades that worked only hit their first target and then stopped out of the second half around the entry. While our trading system keeps losses tight and searches for a 60-70% win rate, the net results are really about the trades that play out for more than just the first target. Because of the narrow, choppy activity, we only had 5 or so trades in the whole month that really played out for bigger gains, and that is not a normal situation. Early July probably won’t be much better with the Holiday, but the rest of July will hopefully be improved in terms of range and hopefully market volume as well. We will analyze the trading results and compare the market environment for those results in greater detail in the future months.

Futures Calls Recap for 6/28/12

Thursday, June 28th, 2012

We got the Supreme Court ruling on the ACA, and it really didn’t generate the market excitement either way that I was expecting, at least until the last 45 minutes or so. Volume closed out weak again at 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares, and we had a couple of nice setups that couldn’t get going at all. See the ES section below for the recap.

Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start with a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s out-of-the-gate ES short triggered at 1315.00 at A and stopped. That trade was not valid again. The next short triggered at 1312.00 at B, hit first target for six ticks, and we closed the second half at 1308.50 for 14 ticks when the market died and volume dropped off at C. Later triggered a new trade short under 1308.00 at D which stopped. Finally, the breakout over S1, LPT, LBreak triggered long at E at 1320.75, hit first target, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/27/12

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

Another day of mixed results and false starts before the real move, all of it on light volume. See NQ and ES sections below.

Net ticks: -2.5 ticks.

First, let’s look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered short at A and 1317.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered long at B at 1321.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered long again at C at same price, hit first target for 6 ticks, and moved stop up twice to 1324.50 for 12 ticks:

NQ:

We measure NQ ticks in 1/2 point increments, not 1/4 point. Triggered long at A at 2559.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped under entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/28/12

Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

The ES was higher by 10 handles on the day after having enough oversold energy loaded into it. Price remains above the 200dma and on the north side of the 1312.50 level that has dominated the May/June trading to date.

The NQ futures were higher by only 9 which made for a very bifurcated session. A little relative strength in the SP side is not a bad thing for the bulls at this point because of how badly the banks and oil service stocks have been performing in the SPX.

The 10-day Trin still has oversold energy to be released which is a very good cocktail to lift prices higher in light summer volume.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross did not make a lower low on this move and has the potential for a higher low. A close above the June high would quality the pattern as having a legitimate higher high in place which would be positive for the NDX and then by extension the SPX.

The HGX housing index is putting in some very positive chart construction. Keep a close eye on the Seeker for a high range buy signal. This would be a very notable development and could lead to a powerful breakout if the May highs are taken out.

The BKX is still trapped under the 50dma and June highs. If the 10 candle of the Seeker setup is taken out the overhead static trend line from May 1 will be in play.

The SOX is very close to a Seeker buy signal. Be patient and have your buy list ready.

The XAU was the last laggard and a source of funds for today’s gains.

Oil has an active Seeker buy signal. A close above the 10ema will begin to turn the momentum.

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/27/12

Tuesday, June 26th, 2012

The ES was higher by 9 on the day recording a Seeker 13 exhaustion buy using the most aggressive methodology. The Seeker conservative approach will defer an exhaustion buy signal until there is a close below or equal to the June low.

The NQ futures posted an inside day which means there were no new technical developments. An inside day always has some extra power loaded into it when it breaks the range so be ready.

The put/call ratio has retreated back to neutral.

The 10-day Trin is back its normal trading band.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BTK was the top gun on the day and remains boxed up.

The BKX posted an inside day and is still holding above the 4/8 level.

The OSX still has an active Seeker buy signal. Note that this is a possible double bottom.

The SOX was flat on the day.

The XAU was the loser on the day. Price remains above the 0/8 Murrey math level so this could turn into an important retest.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/26/12

Tuesday, June 26th, 2012

Lots of triggers on another choppy day where market direction changed eight times. Volume was again weak at 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES and NQ sections below for recaps.

Net ticks: -13 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

In the morning session, the ES triggered short at 1308.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again two bars later and hit the first target for 6 ticks. Stop was adjusted over the entry and the second half stopped there. In the afternoon, triggered long at 1314.25 at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stop was raised to 1315.50 and stopped in the money:

NQ:

Triggered short at 2534.50 at A and stopped. Retriggered at B and stopped. Next trigger would have worked to first target, but I canceled the re-entry after the market was so choppy:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/26/12

Monday, June 25th, 2012

The ES lost 20 handles on the day putting it back to short term negative and well below the two prior highs.

The NQ futures lost 47 on the day and are again short term negative. The 0/8 Gann level is key support and then there is the 200dma below that.

The total put/call ratio is climbing but not yet overbought.

The 10-day Trin is still over sold and loaded with potential reversal energy.

Multi sector daily chart:

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day and the only sector that was green.

The BTK was lower but held above the important moving averages.

The OSX was a huge loser on the day and settled below the 0/8 Murrey math support level. Keep in mind that it’s not a break until after a follow through day has occurred.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day losing 3.5%. This pattern is now 12 days down into the Seeker countdown.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/25/12

Monday, June 25th, 2012

Another very light volume day (by my count, fifth lightest of the year) with predictable results. The first move through our ES trigger stopped and the second one hit the first target. Another trade late in the day did nothing and I closed it out at even. See ES section below.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s called triggered short at 1308.50 at A and stopped, then triggered again, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry. In the afternoon, a long idea triggered at 1309.25 at B and we closed it 15 minutes later at the entry price with time running out and nothing happening:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/22/12

Friday, June 22nd, 2012

Triggered short at 1322.50 at A and stopped. Triggered long at 1327.00 at B and stopped. Short retriggered at C, hit first target for six ticks, and moved stop over the entry and stopped. Couldn’t even fill the gap. There was a nice cup and handle in the afternoon that we discussed in the Lab, but we didn’t call it because volume was so bad:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/21/12

Thursday, June 21st, 2012

Couple of nice winners early, and the ES stopped in the money by just a tick before resuming what would have been a much bigger winner. Oh well, still good. See ES and NQ sections below, and then the market got a little out of range for regular calls.

Net ticks: +15 ticks.

Let’s start first by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, the Seeker, and the VWAP:

ES:

ES triggered short at A at 1348.00, hit first target for six ticks, lowered stop three times and closed the final at B at 1345.00 for 12 ticks:

NQ:

Remember that on the NQ, we use half points as ticks and not quarter points. Triggered short at A at 2605.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, stop was lowered and stopped at the same 6 tick gain:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/21/12

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

After the fed meeting and announcement the ES was unchanged on the day. This leaves an indecisive doji at range high of the move. Price remains above the 50dma and the Seeker count is only 5 days up.

The NQ futures also doji’ed and settled up 5 handles on the day. So, both the ES and NQ futures did little on the day which leaves the door open to a nice post fed meeting move on Thursday.

The total put/call has returned to the comfort zone.

10-day Trin remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX chart is possible making a bullish turn in favor of the SOX.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and has broken above the reverse H&S neckline. The next challenge for the SOX will be the 50dma.

The BKX was up marginally on the day and is hitting key resistance at the 50dma.

The OSX was the sore spot and continues to bearishly lag the overall broad market. The Seeker exhaustion is still on deck.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and a source of funds. The index was lower on the day by 1%.

Oil made a new low close on the move and is 12 days down in the Seeker count and one day away from an exhaustion reversal.

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/20/12

Wednesday, June 20th, 2012

As expected, not a very interesting day in the market with the Fed announcement. An early NQ trade went nowhere as volume was weak. After the Fed, an ES short stopped once, then worked. An ER call late stopped.

See those sections below. Very choppy action.

Net ticks: -16.5 ticks.

Here’s the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short after the Fed at 1345.50 at A and stopped, went back in and hit first target at 1344.00, stopped final half at 1344.25 in the money:

NQ:

Triggered short early on a nice setup under the Pivot at A and stopped (the retrigger of this would have worked, but we canceled ahead of the Fed):

ER:

Triggered short at A at 777.00 and stopped:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/20/12

Tuesday, June 19th, 2012

The ES settled above the 50dma for the first time since April, gaining 10 on the day. The next challenge for the up move will be 1375.

The NQ futures were higher by 25 on the day and settled above the 50dma.

The 10-day Trin has more room to go before recording an overbought reading.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SPX/NDX cross shows that the NDX continues to hold a bullish relative strength advantage.

The OSX cross was the top gun on the day but continues to lag the overall broad market in performance. Note that the Seeker buy countdown is still incomplete.

The BKX was up a full 2$ but is now 9 days up in the Seeker count and below the 50dma.

The SOX had an elusive very positive day. The pattern has nicely gapped above the reverse H&S neckline and a qualified follow through would be very positive for the overall market.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/19/12

Tuesday, June 19th, 2012

Two ES calls, one in the morning worked, and one in the afternoon didn’t when volume fizzled once again. See that section below.

Net ticks: +1.5 ticks.

As usual, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at 1347.00 over early highs at A, hit 6 ticks for first target, Mark adjusted stop a few times and stopped the final piece at 1349.75, 11 ticks in the money. Later in the afternoon after we addressed the VWAP on volume, second call triggered short at 1350.25 at B and stopped:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/19/12

Monday, June 18th, 2012

The ES was higher by 3 on the day. This is a marginal new high on the move and leaves price just below the 50dma.

The NQ futures also made a new high on the move breaking above the reverse head and shoulders neckline. The next challenge for the advance will be the 50dma and then the minor 3/8 Murrey math level.

The total put/call ratio is dead neutral:

Our 10-day Trin is also dead neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX is on the verge of a positive turn which would be bullish for the overall market:

The positive turn in the Dow/gold ratio remains elusive and is still negative for the overall market.

The XAU continues to build on its positive construction. This is a new high close on the move.

The SOX has rallied up to the neckline of the reverse H & S pattern.

The OSX continues to struggle and was the last laggard on the day.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/18/12

Monday, June 18th, 2012

Volume was light again (NASDAQ volume closed at only 1.4 billion shares) so we kept it to a simple trade again on the ES for a winner. See that section below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

Let’s start as usual by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at 1334.50 at A, hit first target at 1336.00 for a partial at B, and then Mark raised the stop twice and stopped out of the final piece 5 ticks in the money:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/15/12

Friday, June 15th, 2012

Just one trade call for triple options expiration, and it was a small winner on the ES. Ranges were narrow and even though volume was up early (just options prints) at 450 million shares after an hour on the NASDAQ, it died down and closed at the usual 1.5 billion shares at the end of the day, which means everything after the first hour was worse than normal.

Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.

First, let’s have a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at 1328.75 at A, hit first target for six ticks at B, moved stop under entry and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/14/12

Thursday, June 14th, 2012

Another day with volume heading LOWER, and we continue to see sweeps before moves on the triggers. THe ES call triggered twice and stopped both before finally working. The NQ call worked fine the first time. Volume was only 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares, and it would have been worse except for late day news out of Europe.

Net ticks: +1.5 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

 

ES:

Mark’s long over 1316.50 triggered at A and stopped for 7 ticks, retriggered two bars later at B and stopped again, and then triggered at C and went to the first target, and then Mark updated the stop and stopped 5 ticks in the money:

NQ:

Remember that we use half points for a tick on the NQ.

NQ triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece for 10 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/14/12

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

The ES remains boxed up and could frustratingly settle the week in the 1312.50 area that has been such a strong draw for many sessions now. The day’s candle was essentially inside the prior days so there is nothing new technically.

Like the SP, the NQ futures remain boxed up and there is nothing new technically. The NQ has a major level at 2500 which is still to the south of trading so the NQ still has relative strength vs. the broad market.

10-day Trin:

The put/call ratio is moving towards over sold but not there yet:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX had the opportunity to change its relative weakness trend but didn’t get it done.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day with the trend remaining positive and above 2 of the 3 major moving averages.

The BKX was flat on the day which is a small positive but it remains below the 4/8 midpoint.

The SOX was weaker than the Naz but after the session remains boxed up with a potential reverse head and shoulders pattern forming. Stay tuned and keep a close eye on the 380 neckline.

The OSX was horrible and is now 11 days down in the Seeker exhaustion countdown.

Gold appears to be on the cusp of changing trend. A break an follow through the 4/8 level would be very positive.

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/13/12

Wednesday, June 13th, 2012

Three triggers on the ES with a loser and two winners, although we didn’t get the options unraveling move that we were hoping that would have made the second trade a much bigger gain. See that section below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

Let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short under the Lower Pressure Threshold, sweeping it at A at 1309.25 and stopping, leaving it valid for retrigger as posted in the Messenger. Triggered long at B at 1316.50, hit first target for six ticks, and stop was adjusted up and closed the final at 1317.75. Short retriggered at 1309.25 again at C, hit first target and beyond, stop adjusted and stopped at 1307.25:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/13/12

Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

The ES was higher by 19 on the day trading inside the prior day’s large range. This means that there is nothing new technically. This marks the fourth day that price has been consolidating.

The NQ futures were higher by 35 on the cay but are still in a relative range just like the SP side. As you can see so far the futures offered below the 0/8 level has been gobbled up by the bulls.

The total put/call ratio is neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is setup to make a turn but needs to do some more work to turn bullish.

The Dow/gold ratio has yet to make a bullish breakout in favor of stocks over equities.

The NDX was bearishly weaker than the broader SPX:

The BKX continues to bearishly lag the broad market SPX:

The SOX was the strongest sector on the day but remains boxed up. The near-term pattern could be tracing out a head and shoulders bottom.

The BKX was up a full 2% but has yet to really reverse price. Note that the Seeker countdown is 12 days down.

Watch the XAU for a long trade over the 2 day high.

The OSX was higher but unimpressive.

Oil used the -2/8 level for support and could reverse at any time.

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/12/12

Tuesday, June 12th, 2012

Several trades triggered (6 in total between ES, NQ, and ER). Two stop outs as volume continued to be light, but we netted out gains for the day. See those sections below.

Net ticks: +5.5 ticks.

First, let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market direction lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

ES triggered short at A at 1303.00 and stopped. Re-entry occurred at B and hit first target for 6 ticks, then stop was moved over the entry and the second half stopped. Later, Mark’s long triggered at C at 1310.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and Mark raised stop to 1311.00 and stopped in the money on the second half:

There was another call in the Messenger to go long over the UPT at 1315.00 but I cancelled it entering the last 30 minutes for lack of time. It ended up triggering and working anyway.

NQ:

Mark’s NQ trade triggered above the Pivot at A at 2531.00 and stopped on the same bar (a sweep), which gives us an immediate re-trigger, that went two bars later at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped under the entry:

ER:

One short trade here that triggered at A at 748.20, hit first target for 8 ticks at B, and we lowered the stop and stopped for 12 ticks on the second half at 747.00:

QM:

Look how the high and low of the session were the Value Area boundaries exactly:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/12/12

Monday, June 11th, 2012

The ES gapped up big, but not over the UPT, and was sold, sold, sold. This leaves a decisive midrange outside day down on the chart. The futures lost 22 on the day with price back below the short term trend defining 10ema.

The NQ futures also had a miserable day opening at the high and closing at the low. Keep a close eye on the 0/8 level. Technically, the chart has not recorded a qualified higher high to confirm any intermediate change in trend. There has yet to be a close above the 5/29 settlement which is the key to changing the trend. The overall trend is still down.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

Our 10-day Trin remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX vs. the NDX continues its relative strength downtrend. The market will be fighting a headwind until this changes. Keep in mind that the SOX can change direction in a hurry when it wants to.

The defensive XAU was the best of the miserable performers Monday. The static trend line is the level that needs to be claimed by the bulls. The MACD is climbing and could breakout this week.

The OSX was weak but less than the broad market. There has been no successive closes above the 10ema to change the trend.

The BKX was weaker than the broad market and is still below the 4/8 level.

Oil made a new low close on the move and has been using the -2/8 level for support. The Seeker is deep into the exhaustion countdown and should produce a buy signal soon.

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/11/12

Monday, June 11th, 2012

Couple of trades on another very light volume day as the NASDAQ traded only 1.3 billion shares, far below the 2.0 billion share average that we like to see. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: -9 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with market directional lines, the Seeker, and our VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s late day ES short triggered at A on a news spike and stopped:

NQ:

Triggered short at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, moved stop over the entry and stopped. We then headed into the Value Area with a new call short at B which stopped at C, retriggered at D and hit the first target, second half stopped over the entry:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/8/12

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Just one trade as the market was incredibly light with NASDAQ volume closing at only 1.3 billion shares, the lightest of the year. See ES below.

Net ticks: +2 ticks.

Here’s the ES and NQ intraday with our market direction lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under entry level:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/7/12

Sunday, June 10th, 2012

Our first round of futures trades triggered short on the spike on Bernanke’s comments to Congress and stopped, but then we had three trades that at least hit their first targets. Not much follow through though.

See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: -1 tick.

First, here is a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark had a short under R1 at 1323.00, point A on the chart, that triggered on the spike on Bernanke’s comments and stopped, then triggered again a few minutes later, hit first target of 6 ticks, and he lowered his stop to 1322.00 and stopped the second half. Around the same area, I had a short under the 50% gap retracement, which was an entry of 1322.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped over entry:

NQ:

Mark had an NQ short under UBreak at 2558.50 (point A), which did the same as the ES short, triggered and stopped on the news, then triggered, hit first target, Mark lowered stop to 2556.00 and stopped the second half:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/7/12

Wednesday, June 6th, 2012

The ES was higher by a full 30 handles. Price broke decisively above the 10ema. It was a relatively easy day to trade because the ES opened just above the upper pressure threshold and never dipped below it.

The NQ futures were higher by 61 on the day which reclaims both the 10ema and the 0/8 Murrey math level.

10-day Trin:

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX was higher by 3% making it the strongest Naz sector on the day.

The BKX bearishly lagged the overall market:

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/6/12

Wednesday, June 6th, 2012

Two clean trades today that triggered, hit a partial, and stopped the second half under the entry. Nothing major, but we tacked on gains. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: +5 ticks.

Here’s the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A and hit first target at B, stopped second half under entry:

NQ:

Triggered long at A and hit first target at B, stopped second half under entry:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/6/12

Tuesday, June 5th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day gaining 12 handles. Price has come back to interact with the key 200dma which continues to be a draw. The next important area overhead will be the 10ema and the May lows which area approximately the same.

The NQ futures gained 20 on the day and are wedged between 2 of our moving averages. If price continues to wind up in this area it should have a powerful exit.

The SOX is tracing out reversal like action. Getting back above 365 would be the first indication that the bulls have changed the direction of the chart. The bias remains down until the 10ema is reclaimed.

The OSX was stronger than the overall market and is still bearish but above key support at the 0/8 level.

The BKX posted an inside day down is still fairly close to a completing a Seeker buy countdown.

The BTK bounced but is still below the prior breakout level and active static trend line.

The XAU is grinding below the active static trend line and looks ready to go. Price is now back above the 10 and 50dmas. This is the one chart that looks ready to continue.

10-day Tin:

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX continues to bullishly keep some relative strength vs. the SPX.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/5/12

Tuesday, June 5th, 2012

A great day in our futures trading, although an afternoon trade stood little chance with no market volume. See the ES and ER sections below for reviews. We won 3 out of 5, but two of the winners worked like we like to see them.

Net ticks: +25.5 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional tool, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s ES triggered long at A (1277.50), finally hit the first target at B for six ticks, and after two stop adjustments, stopped at C (1281.00). He had an afternoon call that triggered at 1275.00 at D and stopped for 7 ticks, and then triggered again at E and hit the first target at F, then stopped under the entry on the second half:

ER:

This one was a long entry at A over 737.70 that stopped quickly (ER is a jumpy contract), then triggered again in the next 5 minute bar and went, hitting the first target at B and raising the stop before finally stopping the final half at C at 742.40 for 47 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 6/5/12

Monday, June 4th, 2012

The ES wandered around on the day, expanded the range and settled lower on the day by one handle. This is the second close in a row below the 200dma. Note the important level of support just below at the 0/8 level.

The NQ futures closed right in the middle of Friday’s real body and remain relatively strong vs. the SP side because the 200dma is still below. The 200dma is very key support and will likely be gamed once traded.

10-day Trin remains neutral but climbing.

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The defensive XAU was the top gun. Note that the static trend line is a very big level and taking it will turn the chart to intermediate term positive.

The SOX was the strongest Naz sector and is now 8 days down on the Seeker count.

The BTK was unchanged.

The BKX was the weakest major sector on the day and decisively broke below the 200dma. This chart looks bad but us already 10 days down in the seeker count.

Oil

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/4/12

Monday, June 4th, 2012

ES:

ES triggered short under LBreak at A, hit first target for 6 ticks at B, lowered stop over 1272 and stopped in the money on the second half. Mark later called a long that triggered at C, hit first target for 6 ticks at D and stopped under the entry on the last:

Futures Calls Recap for 6/1/12

Friday, June 1st, 2012

A winner and a loser on the ES for essentially a flat session as the market gapped big again and volume flattened out after the first 60 minutes. We did get to 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares finally.

Net ticks: -1 tick.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short on news at A and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop and stopped in the money for 5 ticks average on the trade:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/31/12

Thursday, May 31st, 2012

A solid day of trading the futures even though volume remains on the light side (it closed out a little better at 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares, which probably explains the afternoon opportunity). We had two winners in the ES and one in the NQ. No losers today. See those sections below.

Net ticks: +16.5 ticks.

First, we will take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

I think in some cases when the trades trigger, hit first target, and adjust quickly, I’m going to start with the 5-minute chart of the day with Levels so you can see our usual picture, but then I will do the trade recap on the 1 minute chart so it is easier to see.

5 minute chart:

Now view the 1-minute chart below. Mark’s short triggered at A, finally hit first target at B, he took off another piece as it hit S2 at C and stopped the final over 1302 at D for 7 ticks net gain on the trade.

Later in the day (below), I then had a late day trigger out of the cup and handle at E, hit first target at F, stopped last piece under 1316.00 at G for 7 ticks:

NQ:

Remember that we use half points as a tick on the NQ. 5-minute chart:

Now, on the 1-minute chart below. My trade triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over entry and stopped second half for a tick loss:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/31/12

Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

The ES gapped down (blow the lower pressure threshold) and closed on the low losing 25 on the day. Price is now back below the 10ema and again short-term negative.

The NQ futures were lower by 28 on the day but much stronger than the broad market because of the strength in AAPL which closed up on the day. They sold AAPL pre IPO to buy FB and now are they taking losses in FB and moving back into AAPL? The NQ pattern is tracing out a small bearish rising wedge which should be resolved by the Friday NFP number.

The total put/call ratio came up just short of the climatic level.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BKX is potentially developing relative weakness vs. the SPX which would be a very bearish development if it gets traction.

The Defensive XAU was the top gun eventhough the dollar was very strong.

The BTK was lower on the day but did nothing technically.

The SOX gapped up above the recent range but was rejected and settled right at the top of the range. Price remains bearishly below the 10ema.

The BKX was very weak losing 2.5% on the day and not making good on the close above the 10ema.

The OSX hemorrhaged 4% on the day and was obliterated by the dollar strength. Price has spent a good deal of time, too much time, below the 4/8 level and hs not been able to pivot higher which puts the 0/8 level in play sometime this summer.

Oil collapsed $3 and settled just above the key 0/8 level. Note that the seeker count offers no support right now.

Gold was higher on the day but was inside yesterday’s candle.

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/30/12

Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

Another slow session for futures as the market volume was horrible (NASDAQ volume only 1.5 billion at the close). One winner and two losers as the market looked setup for a nice rally late but fizzled on light volume and did nothing. See ES and NQ sections below.

Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional tools, plus the Seeker, plus the VWAP:

ES:

Great setup against S2 for a long in the afternoon, swept the trigger to the tick at A and failed, unfortunately triggered on a 9-bar setup completion as well as the lack of volume:

NQ:

Triggered long above the Lower Pressure Threshold heading into the Value Area at A, stopped for 7 ticks (remember that we use half points for ticks on the NQ). Re-entered at B, hit first target at C, stop goes under the entry and stopped second half, no follow through:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/30/12

Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

The ES gapped up and gained 18 on the day. This makes the short term chart positive since it has closed back above the 10ema.

The NQ futures also closed back above the 10ema and turned short term positive. There was some distance from the HOD to the close which is not encouraging to the bulls.

10-day Trin is getting close to the zero baseline.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX was strong Tuesday and has turned the relative performance chart for the better. The trend remains down but there is something to build on.

The OSX was the top major index on the day and closed above the 10ema.

The SOX outperformed the NDX but remains boxed up. Price has been consolidating for a number of days here and should move powerfully once the range is resolved.

The BKX performed with the broad market.

The BTK underperformed the market but did settle back above the 10ema.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and was a source of funds along with FB. Yup, I said it.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/29/12

Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

A very light volume day as expected. Two losers (ES) and a winner (NQ), see both sections below.

Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with market directional lines, VWAP, and our Seeker tool:

ES:

Triggered short by a tick at A (note that it was 9-bars down at that point) and stopped for 7 ticks. Went again at B and actually stopped before it proceeded and worked, but that retrigger was two fast (entered, stopped within 2 minutes, triggered again a minute later, so too fast for most):

NQ:

Triggered short at A, hit first target for 6 half-point ticks at B, stopped over entry the second half:

The Magic Number on the ES: 1312.50

Monday, May 28th, 2012

Let’s talk a little bit about the cosmic importance of the number 1312.50 on the ES front month futures contract. This level, what we call a tri-star level, has been a magnet point for the market many times in the last 13 (yes, 13) years.

We consider tri-star levels to be key points that the market has touched many times from above and below. Typically, once the market approaches a tri-star level, it is drawn to it like a magnet. The 1312.50 is one of the most used of the tri-star levels. Let’s have a look.

Here is a monthly chart of the ES front month futures contract going back to the late 1990′s:

Those of us that have been trading a while remember the level dominated the market throughout much of 1999. The level was first hit in January of that year (point A on the chart above), and it was touched in 8 of the 12 months of that year, but even more interesting was how often the level was used intraday throughout the year. The market accelerated up in late 1999 for the Y2K run-up, then came back to the 1312.50 level on the way down during the liquidity unwind that occurred after, hitting the level again late in 2000 (point B) and then using it from both sides over the next six months. We wouldn’t see the level again until 2006 at point C, but then again, we played around that area for months. In 2008, on the way back down, 1312.50 was support twice (D) and then used for several months again.

In the process of QE1 and QE2 and the economic recovery that has been occurring slowly since 2009, the market made its way back to the level in early 2011 at point E. The number came up over and over in our trading throughout 2011. The market then reached up to a key “Static Trendline” on the monthly chart (the green line at F), found resistance there, and then made it’s way back to 1312.50 this last month.

Zooming into a daily chart of the last year, you can get a better feel for how momentum swings the market around this level like a magnet each time it comes into range:

That view gets even more interesting when you scale down to a 65-minute chart (6 equal bars per day), as you can clearly see that each time the market reaches this area, it plays around it for a few days:

Now, let’s zoom in one final time to a 5-minute chart, which will give us the most clarity about the importance of this level. After the market rallied up and hit the Static Trendline on the monthly chart that I showed above, we had reached as high as 1360. In the middle of May, the market headed sharply lower, dropping over 40 points in five days, ending with a bounce off of the 1312.50 level on May 17 at point A on this chart:

So in a decline in the market of over 40 points in a handful of days, the market was drawn straight to 1312.50, and then got a small bounce before recoiling and breaking under that level. What have we seen in the 7 days since then? Have a look:

Just about every single day (except May 18) has touched the level. In fact, it’s basically the mid-point of this period, and the swings around it have gotten smaller and smaller as the market sticks even more to the tri-star level. In fact, in the last hour of Friday’s light-volume action heading into this Memorial Day weekend, the market looked like it might even close right at that level. There would have been some irony in closing at the number that the market has remembered most over the last 13 years for Memorial Day.

Be aware of these key tri-star levels (there are others) as a lot can be learned from monitoring the market behavior around them.

Futures Calls Recap for 5/25/12

Friday, May 25th, 2012

As expected, a dead trading session for the markets as everyone headed out for the long weekend. Just to put something up, I took a stab at the ES short into the Value Area/under the Pivot, which didn’t work, see that section below. Traded small size as we knew volume would be a problem.

Market is closed Monday, Levels and calls resume Tuesday.

Net ticks: -7.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional tool, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered short at A and stopped for 7 ticks as usual, and then we didn’t bother after that:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/24/12

Thursday, May 24th, 2012

As expected, market volume and activity are drying up as we head into the long weekend. Friday will be a slow mess, so trade at your own risk. Anything worth doing will probably be in the first hour or ninety minutes.

Winner in the ES, loser in the QM and that’s it for the tame session as the ES continues to be drawn to that key 1312.50 area.

Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with the Seeker, market directional tools, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s call triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and second half stopped over the entry for 2.5 ticks gain on the play:

QM:

Nice setup that could have led into the Value Area but failed, triggered short at A and stopped at B for 7 ticks:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/24/12

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

The ES is trying to make a turn but while the futures were up on the day they remain below our trend defining 10ema.

The NQ futures put in a better day closing up 5 but they still remain below the 10ema. Note that today’s low was lower than yesterday’s and today’s high was lower than the previous high.

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX had relative strength today but the trend remains bearishly in favor of the SPX.

The XAU was the top gun by a wide margin gaining 4%. The chart is solidly above the 10ema.

The OSX outperformed the broad market and is very close to going short-term positive.

The BKX posted and indecisive inside day.

The SOX did very little after sweeping to a new low on the move.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/23/12

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

Took 6 trades to get 2 winners with both the ES and NQ short ideas sweeping twice before working. See both sections below.

Net ticks: -11 ticks.

First, let’s take a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Here’s the usual 5-minute chart on the ES with Levels. I will use the 1-minute chart to show today’s triggers since there were a few in a row:

Triggered short under LBreak at A and stopped at B for 7 ticks. Triggered short again at C and stopped for 7 ticks again. Triggered in the next bar again, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop a few times, and stopped final exit at D for 23 ticks, for an average of 14.5 ticks made on that last trade:

NQ:

Here’s the usual 5-minute chart on the ES with Levels. I will use the 1-minute chart to show today’s triggers since there were a few in a row:

Remember that on the NQ, we use half a point as a tick instead of the quarter point that the exchange uses.

Triggered short at A and stopped for 7 ticks at B. Did the same again, triggering short at C, stopping at D, and then triggered again at E, hit first target at F, stopped last over entry for 2.5 ticks on average on that play:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/23/12

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

The ES posted the measuring day that we were looking for. Price tested the 10ema, retreated and ultimately settled down 1 on the day. Wednesday is the important day to see if the bulls can build on Monday’s reversal candle.

The NQ futures posted exactly the same day with a slightly weaker close. The bulls will point to today’s range not breaking into the lower half of Monday’s range. The 10ema is the important level near-term.

The 10-day Trin still has over sold energy:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross continues to bearishly record lower lows. This has been a problem for the overall NDX and will continue to weigh on the market perhaps until we get closer to the release of MS Windows 8.

SPX vs. NDX relative chart shows that the NDX is hanging onto a very slight margin of relative strength in the daily time frame.

The BKX was the top gun on the day closing higher by a full percent.

The BTK was lower on the day and should continue to find resistance at 1500.

Like the broad market the OSX hit the 10ema and failed.

The SOX was awful and the news from DELL won’t help tomorrow. Keep in mind that the chart is in the Gann oversold territory.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/22/12

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

Ended up with two trades that triggered after the market headed away from our short idea early, and both worked fine in the afternoon. See NQ and ES sections below.

Total ticks: +18 ticks.

Let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional tool, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Mark’s ES short triggered at A, hit first target at B for six ticks, and closed the final for 7 ticks as the session ran out of time at C:

NQ:

We measure the NQ tick as half a point instead of the quarter point that the exchange uses as the half point equals $10 and makes more sense.

Triggered short under VAH at A in the afternoon, hit first target for 6 ticks at B and kept adjusting stop until we stopped out at C for about 17 ticks to that exit:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/22/12

Monday, May 21st, 2012

The ES took a turn for the better rallying 25 full handles on a fist day up. Note that price is still below the short term trend defining 10ema so expect a measuring day tomorrow.

The NQ futures were higher by 75 and still have oversold energy for more upside. Target the 10ema for starters and then the 5/8 level which was the April low.

The 10-day Trin has retreated to neutral territory but still has energy loaded in it for more upside.

The total put/call ratio recorded a climatically bearish reading late last week which is loaded the market with reversal potential.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross continues to bearishly bleed.

The OSX was the top gun on the day up almost 4% so expect a measuring day. If price continues higher after the pause then the 10ema and 4/8 level will come into play.

The XAU was also up big and since price closed back above the 10ema it is now in a short term up trend.

The BTK was stronger than the Naz but it doesn’t have the oversold energy that the other indexes have. Expect stiff resistance at the 8/8 level.

The SOX bearishly lagged the performance of the overall Naz. Expect failure at the lower trend channel.

The BKX was the last laggard and is still technically broken.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/21/12

Monday, May 21st, 2012

A nice run in the futures trade with a clean trigger that ran well on the ES. See that section below for the recap.

Net ticks: +14.

First, let’s look at the ES and NQ with market directional, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered long over our UPT level at A, sold half for 6 ticks at B, raised the stop several times and stopped at C for 22 ticks on the second half:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/18/12

Sunday, May 20th, 2012

We weren’t expecting much for options expiration. Ended up with a winner in the ES and a loser in the NQ, but no continuation on the winner. See those sections below.

Net ticks: -4.5.

We’ll start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional tools, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop under entry and stopped second half:

NQ:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 7 tick loss:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/17/12

Thursday, May 17th, 2012

A much better session for futures trading, although the morning was where the action was and volume dipped for the afternoon. We had a winner in both the ES and NQ, see those sections below.

Net ticks: +10.5

Let’s start by looking at the ES and NQ with our market directional tool, VWAP, and the Tradesight Seeker:

ES:

ES triggered short at A, hit first target in that bar at B, lowered stop over entry and stopped out in the next bar:

NQ:

We consider a tick on the NQ half a point instead of every quarter point.

Triggered short at A, came within a tick of the first target, then a tick of the stop, and then hit the first target at B, lowered stop twice and stopped out at C:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/17/12

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

The ES made a new low on the move losing 6 on the day. Next support is the 2/8 Gann level.

The NQ futures broke to new lows losing 21 on the day. Both the ES and NQ have down side CPS candles from today’s session.

10-day Trin:

The total put/call ratio now has a climatic spike in place:

Multi sector daily chart:

The XAU was the top gun on the day and the only major sector up on the day. The eSignal below is wrong as they often are.

The BTK was relatively strong and is still glued to the 8/8 level.

The OSX made a new low and is hovering just above the critical -2/8 level. Keep in mind that a frame shift would be very bearish.

The BKX continues to retreat and should find important support at the 4/8 level just below 44.

The SOX settled below the 200dma and also the lower channel boundary. The pattern is just now 9 days down so there could be some lateral or retracement activity soon.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver

Futures Calls Recap for 5/16/12

Wednesday, May 16th, 2012

Another really choppy morning on the futures. Everything was in the ES.

Net ticks: -18 1/2.

First, here’s the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, Seeker, and VWAP:

ES:

Triggered short at A by sweeping the Pivot and immediately stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered long at B by sweeping the R1 and immediately stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered long again about 15 minutes later at C and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered short at D and hit partial at E and adjusted stop to over the entry and stopped:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/15/12

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

Three triggers today, two on the ES and one on the NQ, both early, as action faded quick and the market volume was not impressive. See both of those sections below.

Net ticks: -2.

Here’s the ES and NQ with our market directional tool, VWAP, and Seeker:

ES:

Triggered long at A and stopped for 7 ticks loss at B. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D for 6 ticks, second half adjusted for 1 tick loss under entry:

NQ:

Triggered long at A and hit first target at B, second half stopped at entry at C:

Remember that even though a “tick” on the NQ is a quarter point for $5 per contract, we still count the half point moves as the smaller increment is too hard to count.

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/16/12

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

The ES lost 6 handles on the day making a new low on the move and a new low close. Note that the Seeker count is now 9 days down.

The NQ futures were also down on the day though were relatively strong vs. the broad market. Price did make a new low on the move but the pattern is finally 9 days down.

The 10-day Trin has matched the most oversold reading of the year to date.

The total put/call ratio has yet to record a climatic close.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross ratio chart shows that the NDX bullishly still has relative strength vs. the SPX.

The BTK was the top gun on the day and is still controlled by the 8/8 level.

The BKX closed just below critical support which doesn’t quite yet qualify as a break of the static trend line.

The SOX is 9 days down into a super key area of support.

The OSX is moving deeper into oversold territory. Keep a close eye on the -2/8 level which is the last line of defense before a frame shift.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/15/12

Monday, May 14th, 2012

The ES lost 16 handles on the day making a new low on the move. Price undercut the key 2 bar island made in early March and has qualified the lower high set in late April. The Seeker count is now 8 days down so the broad market could see a bounce later this week.

The NQ futures made a new low close on the move. Price is below all the important major moving averages and is in a short-term down trend. Like the ES, the NQ futures are 8 days down so either a lateral move or bounce is on deck. Note how the early March lows are key support.

The 10-day Trin is still hovering around the oversold threshold.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

All of the major moving averages were red on the day with the BTK being the strongest. It was in insicde day but net another accumulation session with price closing above the open.

The short term oversold SOX was stronger than the broad market one the day. Keep a close eye on the 200dma and the lower trend channel which together are key support.

The OSX made a new low on the move and is now 9 days down on the Seeker count.

The BKX was hit hard and much weaker than the broad market. The pattern is now 9 days down and just above key support at the static trend line.

The XAU recorded its first close below the Seeker risk level. A new intraday low would nullify the buy signal though it’s unlikely in the next 48 hours because of the new 9 bar setup that just completed.

Oil:

Gold is 9 days down:

Silver is also 9 days down:

Futures Calls Recap for 5/14/12

Monday, May 14th, 2012

Several calls and triggers today, some working and some not, as the market volume dropped off sharply to only 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares by the close. We had a gap down in the market and then pressed lower, came back a bit (exactly hit the 50% retracement of the gap before lunch), and then fizzled in the afternoon as volume never came back. See ES and NQ below for trade summaries.

Net results of the day if you took all five trades (one is questionable in my mind and I didn’t take) is a loss of 9 ticks. See details below.

Here’s the ES and NQ with our market direction tool, Seeker count, and VWAP:

ES:

Nice setup under early lows triggered at A and stopped at B. Technically triggered again about a minute later, although I don’t necessarily agree that you retake something that stops out without letting it consolidate again first. If you did, the second trigger was short at C in the same bar as the original stopped out. That stopped at D. We then had the ES retrace 50% of the gap and stall out right the LBreak, a perfect setup for the afternoon, but volume never came back in and it triggered early at E and stopped at F:

If you took the initial trade, the immediate retrigger, and the later long, there was 21 ticks of net loss.

NQ:

Even though they split the NQ down to 4 ticks per point a couple of years ago, we still count every HALF point as a tick (so two ticks per point, at $10 per contract per tick).

Mark’s NQ short triggered at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop right over the entry and stopped out on the second half there for basically a net 3 tick gain (6 to target and flat on second). Then, my long triggered at C, hit first target at D, raised stop twice and stopped in the money at E for a net 9 ticks):

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/10/12

Wednesday, May 9th, 2012

The ES closed right at the key 1352 level which was the intraday low form April. The bullish development was that even though price was lower on the day the close was above the open.

The NQ futures were little changed on the day but closed well above the open. Price was contained within the prior day’s range and the breakout should have some extra punch.

Total put/call ratio:

10-day NYSE Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is hanging on by a thread, see below.

The XAU tested the risk level of the Seeker buy signal and was saved by it. Keep a close eye on this sector the rest of the week and look for reversal setups.

The SOX tested and held above the key 200dma. Keep in mind that this also maintains price above the lower channel boundary.

The BTK posted a relatively narrow inside day.

The OSX continues to trace out some bottoming tails on the daily chart and closing at a 3 day high will kick in some short covering.

The BKX was the weakest major sector on the day. Price settled below the recent range and continuation will put the static trend line in play.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/9/12

Tuesday, May 8th, 2012

The ES lost 7 handles on the day after trading at some key price. On the chart you will see the prior low close at 1357 and the prior intraday low at 1352. Both prices traded but the ES managed to close above both of those levels. Once those levels are penetrated the potential lower high on the chart will be confirmed. Until this confirmation occurs the short term trend is frustratingly lateral. Note that Tuesday’s candle was a camouflage buy signal.

The NQ futures lost 14 on the day and also recorded a camouflage buy signal.

The 10-day Trin is close to but just below the oversold threshold.

The total put/call ratio remains neutral.

The multi sector daily chart shows the XAU continues to bleed.

The SOX/NDX cross matched its low close but did not break futher.

The decline in gold pushed the Dow/gold ratio to a new high in favor of stocks over gold.

The BTK was again the top gun on the day but did not record a new high on the move.

The OSX has posted two days in a row that have put some very interesting bottoming tails on the candles.

The BKX remains boxed up and is using the same key level for support. Don’t forget the bullish triangle that is being traced out.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day. The Seeker buy signal is hanging on by a thread. Price has penetrated the risk level but not yet broken it.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/8/12

Monday, May 7th, 2012

The ES gapped down opening at the active static trend line then rallied up to close high on the day by 3 handels. Keep in mind that while the bulls saved the one day, price remained in the lower half of Friday’s down candle.

The NQ futures posted a similar session. The big break remains on the chart with a lower high on the chart. Price is bearishly below the 10 and 50 period moving averages.

10-day Trin:

The put/call ratio remains neutral.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is near the prior low showing weakness in the SOX. A break to new lows would be very bearish for the overall NDX.

The OSX continues its bearish posture and is weighing down the underlying crude futures. This is a classic bearish condition for oil.

The one small positive is that the BKX is holding onto its relative strength vs. the SPX.

The BKX was relatively strong on the day up almost 1%. The February highs have been providing strong support and the daily chart is forming a bullish declining wedge formation.

The SOX was weak on the day using the prior low for support. This chart still could decline to the lower trend channel.

The XAU matched the old low but didn’t break. Be careful that this isn’t just a measuring day that gives way to further downside continuation.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and broke key support by closing under the static trend line. The next important level is the 4/8 and then the YTD lows. This is not what the bulls want to see because there is typically a bid under energy stocks when a recovery is underway and has teeth.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/3/12

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

The ES did little on the day shaking off a disappointing ADP number. This left the chart with loss of 3 handles on day but in a subtly positive fashion, the day’s close was above the open.

The NQ futures were high by 9 on the day and bullishly remain above all of the major moving averages. Friday’s non-farm payroll number will the week’s arbiter. This leaves Thursday’s trade as kind of a jump ball.

Total put/call ratio is moving lower but not yet climatic:

10-day NYSE Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross ratio chart is still holding above the key breakout level. This should be revisited early next week after the NFP release.

The SOX/NDX cross remains below the breakdown level.

The BTK was the top gun on the day and essentially closed at the 8/8 level which is the first price hurdle after the breakout.

The SOX closed at one week high but still remains below the 50dma.

The BKX was lower by a full percent on the day but there were no new technical developments.

The OSX should be monitored closely here. A breakout of the range that has been defined by the 50 and 200dma’s should be very powerful.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day. Keep in mind that the Seeker exhaustion signal is still in place and has yet to release its energy.

Oil, note there is a Seeker 13 exhaustion on deck:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/2/12

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

The ES futures were higher by 7 on the day. Price tested the YTD highs but fell back sharply after setting the high water mark at noon EST.

The NQ futures were much weaker than the broad market. The NQ lost a fraction on the day making a new high over Monday’s range and bearishly closing near the LOD.

10-day Trin:

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The BKX was the best performing major sector on the day closing at a multi week high. The index remains above all the major moving averages.

The SOX is still trapped in the same range and below the key 50dma.

The BTK was little changed on the day and is now 9 days up on the seeker.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 5/1/12

Monday, April 30th, 2012

The ES capped off the month by losing 5 handles on the session. This could be a very important couple of candles because this mini-formation will either continue higher and take out the old high or will bearishly turn into a “B” wave retest that fails at the prior high. If the pattern fails to make a higher high and takes out the April lows then the bearish “B” wave scenario will be confirmed.

The NQ futures lost 18 on the day and has the same general design as the ES futures only with more relative strength. The same pattern is in play and the next few candles are critical.

The 10-day Trin is in the neutral zone:

Like the Trin, the total put/call ratio is neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio should be monitored here. A breakout over the 6.00 level will put the upper trend channel in play.

The BKX was bearishly decoupled from the broad market today showing relative weakness. Keep a close eye on this relationship. Underperformance of the BKX might be an early indication that “Sell in May” is in play.

The OSX was the top gun on the day but was inside Friday’s range.

The BTK also traded inside:

XAU inside day:

The SOX traded in-line with the NDX:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/26/12

Wednesday, April 25th, 2012

The ES gapped higher and closed at the HOD gaining 17. Price has advanced to the high of the recent range and also the recent breakdown level and gap window.

The NQ futures were much stronger than the ES on the day exploding higher by 72 and leaving a small 2 candle island below. Note that price is now back above all the important moving averages.

10-day NYSE Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross bearishly made a new low on the move:

The NDX is showing very good relative strength and building on it would be very bullish for the overall market.

The SOX was strong on the day but underperformed the overall NDX.

The BTK continues to print new highs and is unencumbered by the Seeker count.

The OSX has rallied to key resistance and a potential short-term breakout level.

The BKX jumped over the 10ema but was weaker than the broad market. Price is still holding above the 50 and 200 period moving averages.

The XAU is trying to make the turn. There is a ton of room for the next upward impulse.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradeisght Market Preview for 4/25/12

Tuesday, April 24th, 2012

The ES made good on the camouflage buy signal in place from yesterday’s trade to gain 7 on the day. Earnings releases will likely continue to drive price and keep things gappy.

The NQ futures were lower by 17 on the day which continues with the relative weakness theme. Price settled right at the key static trend line. If this level is lost then the downside momentum will really accelerate and the 4/8 Murrey math level will come into play.

10-day Trin is back to the neutral level at 1.00:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross made a new low on the move. The AAPL earnings will likely have a vote as to the near term direction of this ratio.

The BKX was the top major sector on the day. A close above the 10ema would turn the chart back to short term positive.

The OSX is trying to make a turn here. Keep an eye on the old DTL.

The BTK made a new high on the move settling right at the 7/8 level. Note that the Seeker count is only 3 days up.

The XAU still has a fresh 13 buy signal. Monday’s action was inside the prior day’s candle so be sure to set an alarm for a break over Friday’s high and have some long ideas ready to go after the FOMC announcement.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day making a new low close on the move. The next important level of support is the 200dma at 387.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/24/12

Monday, April 23rd, 2012

The ES gapped down huge on the day and really did very little with one small exception. The exception was that price closed above the open which makes for a camouflage buy signal. This puts Monday’s gap fill in play. Price was lower 13 on the day using the active static trend line as support. The market did one other important thing by filling the open gap at 1356.75.

The NQ futures were lower by 24 on the day. Price is pinching between the 10eama and the 50dma. Momentum is picking up as confirmed by the break below the zero line of the MACD. The next area of support is the static trend line.

10-day Trin:

The put/call ratio is neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross has bearishly recorded a new low close:

The best sector on the day was the BTK which is still holding above the recent gap.

The OSX used the static trend line for support as should be expected. Traders should view the chart as short term neutral with oversold energy for a bounce until there is a close below the STL.

The BKX was slightly stronger than the broad market using the 50dma for support. The MACD is still above the zero line. A break below the zero line will kick in a wave of momentum selling.

The SOX gapped lower and continues to be a problem the overall NDX. Next real support is at 390.

The XAU closed at a new low and is now 13 days down in the daily Seeker count. Be sure to look at this index for reversal opportunities.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/19/12

Wednesday, April 18th, 2012

The ES was lower by 5 posting an inside day on the day. This means that there was technically nothing new on the day.

The NQ futures also posted an inside day losing 18 doing so. This was a classic measuring day where the market worked off yesterday’s strong upward impulse.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is still below the key breakdown level which is bearish for the overall NDX.

The OSX was the top gun on the day and closed higher by a small margin on the day. The bad news is that price remains below all of the major moving averages.

The BKX remains trapped within the recent trading range.

The XAU posted an inside day.

The SOX remains below all 3 major moving averages with an active Seeker sell signal in place.

The BTK has yet to release any of the energy from the 9 days down.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Overview for 4/18/12

Tuesday, April 17th, 2012

The ES was higher by 19 on the day, possibly beginning the “B” wave bounce. This is a key pivot off 9 bars down on the Seeker but does not necessarily mean that the all clear signal has been sounded.

The NQ futures were higher by 49 handles settling just below the 10ema. The 50dma is still providing support.

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The OSX was top gun using the static trend line for support:

The BKX was stronger than the broad market but remains trapped in the recent range. Note how what were the weakest stocks were the strongest on the day. This is very typical of the first day up in a reflex rally.

The SOX was nicely higher on the day but for the time remains below the key 50dma. Keep a close eye on the gap window overhead which will be stiff resistance.

The XAU traded inside yesterday’s candle. The Seeker count is has yet to record the exhaustion signal.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/17/12

Monday, April 16th, 2012

The ES was lower by one handle on the day one handle closing at key support just above the static trend line. The pattern is now 9 days down and setup for a bounce. This doesn’t mean that the bounce will happen Tuesday but probability favors that there will be a “B” wave bounce somewhere.

The NQ futures were much weaker than the SP losing 30 on the day. The pattern is much different than the SP because the static trend line has yet to come into play and price is not below the 50dma. The Seeker setup count is only 7 days down.

The 10-day Trin is in oversold territory:

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio has recorded the highest close of the year which means that investors has been accumulating downside protection. This is a contra-indicator.

The SOX/NDX cross has bounced back to the breakdown level which is a sign of relative strength for the SOX. This is potentially bullish if the bounce doesn’t fail at the breakdown.

The BKX was relatively strong vs. the NDX which is bullish for the broad market.

The OSX vs. crude futures made a new low on the move. This is one intermarket pair that throws cold water on the broad market bounce setup.

The BKX was the top gun on the day and is now 9 days down. Note that today’s candle was inside yesterday’s candle.

The SOX was unchanged on the day and was inside yesterday’s range.

The BTK is 8 days down.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day,

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/11/12

Tuesday, April 10th, 2012

The ES broke hard, losing 18 on the day with price settling around the active static trend line. Price is now below the 50dma for the first time in 2012. Keep a close eye on the MACD which has now turned negative. A break below the zero line would get momentum rolling down in the intermediate time frame.

The NQ futures were lower by 31 on the day but they continue to maintain their relative strength vs. the ES. The NQ’s have broken decisively below the 10ema but its relative strength is keeping it above the 50dma. It’s really up to AAPL. The relative strength in AAPL has buoyed the overall NDX but the soldiers are falling. Tuesday PCLN posted a range high outside day down but AAPL did not. It’s really turning into an NBA index—nothing but Apple. If AAPL breaks, then the NDX is done.

10-day Trin:

Total put/call ratio:

Multi sector daily chart:

The defensive XAU was the top gun for the second day in a row and was the only major index that was positive on the day.

The SOX broke below the static trend line with next support at the midpoint of the trend channel.

The OSX used the static trend line for support. Price is now below all of the major moving averages.

The BKX was weaker than the broad market. Key support is just below where the 50dma converges with the February highs.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day losing more than 2.5%. The double top is in place for lower prices. The next area of support is the static trend line.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Market Preview for 4/10/12

Monday, April 9th, 2012

The ES broke down after the awkwardly reported NFP number and settled lower by 15 on the day. This is the low close of the month and is breaking down below the trend defining 10ema. Price gravitated to the 8/8 Murrey math level but most likely will tag the static trend line.

The NQ futures have a similar setup but continue to bullishly hold their relative strength. Seasond traders know that when one stock like AAPL is driving the relative strength, the market is asking too much from one stock. The next level of support will be the static trend line and rising 50dma.

10-day NYSE Trin:

Total put/call ratio is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

SOX/NDX cross remains weak and bearishly made a lower low.

The BKX is giving back a good deal of its relative strength.

The defensive XAU was the strongest sector on the day. The real body of the candle was inside the prior day’s range so a breakout should have extra punch.

The OSX made a new multi month low close and the MACD is gaining downside momentum.

The SOX is using the static trend line for support, if this breaks then the February lows are the next trade to target.

The BKX has decisively broken the 10ema and will find critical support were the February highs converge with the 50dma.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day. If the current lower high becomes qualified by a lower low then a very deep pullback is in the cards.

Oil (USO):

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 4/5/12

Wednesday, April 4th, 2012

The ES gapped down below the lower pressure threshold and could not recover. Price lost 15 on the day and settled below the 10ema.

The NQ futures broke below the recent range and decisively settled below the trend defining 10ema. A follow through day would turn the chart short-term negative.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross bearishly made a new low on the move which has negative implications for the overall NDX.

The OSX was the best performing sector on the day managing to hover above the real breakdown level below the March lows.

The BTK still has the potential for a nasty double top.

The BKX tested but did not break the recent range lows. A break under the range low would be very bearish and kick in some profit taking momentum.

The SOX is picking up downside momentum and is now below the 10ema and 50sma. The next important target is the active static trend line.

The XAU was no defensive stronghold for the bulls and made a new low on the move. The chart is in the oversold area closing below the -1/8 Murrey math level.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 4/4/12

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2012

The ES was lower on the day by 3 handles but was contained by the previous day’s range which means there was no new technical development until price breaks the two day range.

The NQ futures were relatively strong all day gaining 2 points lead by the strength in AAPL. However, even though the futures were higher on the day, internally the market was weak with a net 1k issues lower on the day. Poor internals and bad breadth are often signs of an impending change in trend.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross is very close to a breakdown. A leg down would have very bearish implications for the overall NDX.

The BTK was the top gun on the day but did not make a new high on the move.

The BKX was little changed and remains boxed up at the 8/8 level.

The OSX is trapped between the 50 and 200dmas, when price resolves this area it should move nicely.

The SOX was the weakest NDX sector on the day and the relative weakness must stop here. The Seeker sell signal is still acive.

The XAU was by far the weakest sector on the day and the bottom fishers were frustrated by the chart making a new low on the move.

Gold waterfalled lower after the release of the FOMC minutes and didn’t recover.

Silver:

Oil:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 4/3/12

Monday, April 2nd, 2012

The ES started Q2 with a gain of 9 on the day. This is neither a new high nor a new high close on the move. There is nothing new technically other than settling above the 9/8 level again.

The NQ futures exactly matched the high close of the move by gaining 26 on the day. The 8/8 level just overhead is the Sheriff in town and is still supported by the 10ema.

The 10-day Trin is in the middle of the neutral area.

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio recorded moderately bearish reading.

The SOX continues to bearishly lag the NDX.

The XAU was the top gun on the day perhaps making a short term bottom. Keep a close eye on how the MACD plays out over the next few days.

The OSX bounced back to the breakdown area.

The BKX remains boxed up staging right at the key 8/8 Murrey math level.

The SOX was lower on the day still feeling the weight of the active Seeker signal. This was a gross underperformance vs. the broader NDX.

The BTK was notably weak and has an active Seeker sell signal in the 65min chart.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/29/12

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

The ES lost 6 handles on the day and filled the open gap in the process which crosses this off the to-do list. Thursday is the day before the end of the month and more importantly the end of the quarter which is the cue for window dressing. Be flexible and respect a return to the dominant upside bias.

The NQ futures were again relatively strong vs. the ES only losing 7 on the day. The 8/8 Murrey math level is just over head and both a draw and strong resistance if reached.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX is still relatively weak vs. the NDX and is still a cause for concern for the bulls.

The BTK was the top gun on the day but registered a camouflage sell signal below the high of the move.

The BKX closed right at the 8/8 level showing relative strength but didn’t make a new high on the move. A new high here on Thursday could well be a false move on window dressing so beware.

The OSX bearishly close below the 200dma and a close below Wednesday’s low would qualify the breakdown.

The SOX was much weaker then the broad market and NDX. The Seeker sell signal is still active.

The XAU was the last laggard and closed at a new low. This should not be surprising since it’s the weakest sector of the quarter.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/28/12

Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

The ES was lower on the day by 8 handles and was totally controlled by yesterday’s range. This leaves an inside day on the chart which works off a tiny bit of the overbought energy in the pattern.

The NQ futures were again relatively strong vs. the SP side. The Naz futures were lower by only 1 point on the day. Price did make a new intraday high on the move so there is no question that this was a range high distribution day. The end of month chicanery is about to start so be prepared for some more volatility.

10-day Trin:

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX continues to struggle vs. the overall NDX:

The NDX still has good relative strength vs. the SPX:

The most notable intermarket divergence continues to be the OSX which bearishly lags crude futures.

The SOX was unchanged on the day almost touching the risk level from the Seeker sell signal.

The BTK traded inside yesterday’s range.

The BKX was lower on the day and weaker than the broad market. Possible signs of fatigue but be sure to allow for end of quarter nonsense in the sectors that have been attracting money.

The OSX was again the last laggard and is just above the very key support area of the 200dma.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/27/12

Monday, March 26th, 2012

The ES broke to new highs on the move and has cleared the next level of resistance and is moving deeper into the Murrey math overbought territory.

The NQ futures also hit a new high gaining 48 on the day. Price is beginning to accelerate and get parabolic with a next target of 2812.50.

The 10-day Trin recently hit the overbought threshold but has yet to produce a reversal. The overall design still has overbought energy to be released.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX continues to show relative strength vs. SPX:

The BTK was the top gun on the day pivoting off support from the rising 50dma.

The XAU was stronger than the broad market which is a cause for concern to the bulls since a defensive sector is attracting money.

The BKX was up 1.5% which makes a new closing high but not new absolute high on the move.

The SOX made a new high on the move. Keep in mind that the Seeker still has an active sell signal in place and the risk level has yet to be violated.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and continues to be an underperformer.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/22/12

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012

The ES was slightly lower on the day in distribution fashion. The chart has completed a Seeker 9 bar setup and will likely either take a pause or do something more corrective. Time will tell.

The NQ futures are now 9 bars up and completed the most recent Seeker sell setup. Price bearishly made a new intraday high but closed down on the day.

The 10-day Trin remains overbought and is loaded with reversal potential.

Multi sector daily chart:

The OSX continues to bearishly underperform crude futures.

The SOX was the top sector on the day but is now 9 days up.

The XAU was about flat on the day and looks poised for a bounce. A return to the safety trade would really fuel this.

Be sure to set an alarm for a break under Monday’s low for the BTK. The pattern looks very vulnerable here.

The BKX is now 9 days up and right at key resistance at the Murrey math 8/8 level

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and is very close to a breakdown level. If price settles below 242 the 200dma should quickly come into play.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/21/12

Tuesday, March 20th, 2012

The ES recouped a gap down and filled about two thirds of the gap. The gap is still open and will be important for the bulls to fill sooner rather than later. The overall pattern is now 8 days up and most likely will complete a 9 bar Seeker sell setup tomorrow. Take note that there are 600+ stocks that are 8 days up as well.

The NQ futures were much stronger than the ES. The NDX100 tracking futures closed up 26 on the day and made a new high on the move. Like the SP side, the NQ futures are 8 days up.

For the first time this year the 10-day Trin has recorded and overbought reading. The is a very notable development and finally loads the pattern with energy for a reversal.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross broke out to a new high which is a very positive development for the bulls. Keep in mind that this is in direct conflict with the reversal warning that the 10-day Trin is flashing.

The XAU was one of the strongest sectors on the day and may be looking for a tradable bottom.

The BKX was higher on the day but traded inside yesterday’s range. The Seeker setup count is now 8 days up.

The SOX was notable weak, diverging from the strength in the NDX.

The BTK is still waiting for a resolution to see if this is a bounce wave or if it is ready to move to new highs. The Seeker that has a 9-13-9 in place strongly suggests that price will see the 200dma before new highs.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day and continues to struggle. The Seeker is in the qualification stage of the countdown waiting for the ultimate exhaustion signal to print.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/20/12

Monday, March 19th, 2012

The ES broke to new high ground on the move closing deeper into the overbought Murrey math territory. Gaining 5 handles on the day the ES closed just below the 1406 level.

The NQ futures also made a new high adding 18 to the move. Since the Murrey math box has already frame shifted, it is not in overbought territory but very extended without any real corrective move to date.

The daily Trin closed at 1.39 which was very helpful to the bulls and kept the 10-day average from recording an overbought reading below 0.85.

The multi sector daily chart is screaming, “Rotation”. The exit from last year’s safety play of gold stocks is clearly rotating into other more economically sensitive sectors like the BKX and SOX.

The SOX/NDX cross is bullishly bouncing off critical support:

The BKX is showing good leadership over the broad market and is beginning to get a bit extended.

The NDX/SOX is very close to a key breakout:

Possibly the chart to watch for long-term investors right now is the Dow/Gold ratio. The ratio in the weekly time frame is above the midpoint and a break and follow through above the upper channel would be very bullish for equities.

The XBD finally broke above the active static trend line Price is now 7 day up and a 9-13-9 completed Seeker run will likely be a real profit taking catalyst.

The SOX is back into the 8/8 level and still has an active Seeker sell signal.

The BKX made a new high and settled right at the 8/8 level. Note the topping tail that was left on the chart.

The XAU was a source of funds but is still holding above the 0/8 level.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day trading inside Friday’s candle. Note that on the chart the Seeker is hunting for an exhaustion signal with will print when price closes above the candle labeled with the red 8.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Rolls Out Latest Futures Levels Service

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Effective this evening, Tradesight is updating the Futures Levels service, as previously announced. The new service will cover the following contracts:

ES, NQ, YM, ER/TF, QM, YG.

The ZN contract has been dropped from the service for now.

The Levels have been expanded to include the following information each day (new items in bold):

Previous Day’s Open, High, Low, Close, UBreak, LBreak, VAH, VAL, R4, R3, R2, R1, Pivot, S1, S2, S3, S4, UPT, LPT, and 4 Starred Levels.

The printable version of the page, which subscribers can reach by logging into the website and going to Subscriptions…Futures Levels, will be available later this evening showing tomorrow’s data.

The latest versions of the e-Signal tools are available here. If you have a prior version installed, the best course of action is the following:

1) Close e-Signal and data manager

2) In Control Panel, uninstall Tradesight Suite for e-Signal

3) Download the new version for either e-Signal 10.6 or 11.x here and install it

4) For any chart that had the old version, you will have to remove the Formula, then right-click on the chart and hit Formulas, Tradesight, Futures Level 1.4.

This tool has more options and is editable in more ways than the last version, including backtesting of data. You can see the options by right-clicking on the chart and hitting Edit Studies.

The new Levels service is the basis for the Futures course that will be taught this weekend.

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/15/12

Wednesday, March 14th, 2012

The ES posted a measuring day with a net decline of 2 handles. The market moved sideways in a choppy fashion. A new high was recorded but not a new high close which makes this a distribution dayl.

The NQ futures were higher by 9 on the day making a new high close. Note that the MACD is getting extended.

The 10-day Trin is still being very stingy with giving us an overbought or oversold reading.

The strength of the banks and the weakness in the mining stocks is eye popping on our comparison chart. Can you say, “Rotation”?

The much welcomed strength in the BKX is good to see on the comparison chart.

The NDX/SPX cross is getting close to a new high. A breakout would be very bullish.

The BKX was the only sector up on the day and with it taking out yesterday’s high will disqualify the Seeker sell signal.

The SOX was the top NSDAQ sector but was lower on the day. The price action in the next couple of days is going to be very key because it will determine if the current up move is a retest of a high or more. The Seeker is still in a sell condition.

The XAU got thumped and is just above the YTD low. The 9 bar Seeker setup did not support price which implies that a full countdown phase is in the cards. Take it one bar at a time but this could be trouble if the 0/8 level is lost.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Today’s Use of the Tradesight Upper Pressure Threshold

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

Almost every trading session begins with some degree of a price gap. Depending on overnight news, the performance of overseas markets, and many other influences, markets tend to gap from session to session. Small price gaps tend to fill very quickly, usually in the first third of a trading day. Larger gaps tend to take longer to fill and gaps that are big enough will have to wait until subsequent trading days to fill.

So when is a gap large enough that it won’t fill in the same trading day? Tradesight is launching an enhancement to our Levels service that will give traders objective levels to determine the probability of a gap fill or gap and go environment. The Levels will be automatically plotted on the futures that we follow. There will be an upper Pressure Threshold and a Lower Pressure Threshold.

When price gaps but is contained between the Upper Pressure Threshold (UPT) and Lower Pressure Threshold (LPT), the expectation is that the gap is not large enough to stay open and will fill during the current trading session. However, when price gaps beyond the Pressure Threshold then the gap is significantly large enough to stay open for the entire session.

On Tuesday 3/13/12, the ES futures gapped above the Upper Pressure Threshold which defined that the gap was large enough not to fill in the current session. Not only did the gap not fill but the objectively plotted level was key support when price broke under the opening range and was threatening to make the gap fill move. The gap fill never happened and traders that were aware of the key level were empowered to stay on the long side of the tape for a spectacular afternoon explosion in price as short scurried to cover.

Below is the 15 minute chart of the ES futures with the Upper Pressure Threshold (UPT) shown as a bold green line:

You can learn more about how to use this key Level and many others in this weekend’s all-new Tradesight Futures Levels course.

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/14/12

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

The ES gapped above the Tradesight Pressure Threshold and never looked back. After the FOMC decision and JPM buy back news the market plowed higher leaving the shorts scrambling for cover. The ES was higher by 24 on the day and made a new high close on the move. Note that this is the first meaningful close above the Murrey math 8/8 level.

The NQ futures were higher by 47 on the day making a new high and new high close on the move.

The 10-day Trin is still neutral but the daily Trin closed at 0.38 which favors a gap down tomorrow to relive the overbought pressure.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX continues to bullishly keep its relative strength vs. the SPX.

The BKX was decisively higher in the day which will force a frame shift in the Murrey math levels. The next couple of days are critical because if there is a trade that is one tick higher than Tuesday’s close the Seeker sell signal will be disqualified.

The SOX was stronger than the NDX which is a good sign for the bulls. This is a key intermarket nuance that needs to continue to pave the way for higher NDX prices.

The OSX is still one day away from a Seeker sell signal.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day but did not make a new low since the Seeker just recorded a completed 9 bar buy setup.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/13/12

Monday, March 12th, 2012

The ES closed the day unchanged which is actually notable for a couple of reasons. Internally there was a classic tug-of-war that wasn’t really visible by just looking at how the major averages closed. The advance/declines were sloppy closing -438 net issues, the economically sensitive OSX and SOX was much weaker than the broad market and then the VIX was bucking the negative internals. The VIX, which trades opposite of the averages, where you typically see higher ES prices and lower VIX values or vise versa, was very weak all day. So the weakness in the VIX usually sets the table for higher ES prices but the A/D numbers were sloppy and the leading OSX and SOX sectors were very weak and in conflict with the lower (read bullish) VIX. Markets that are trending with good internal support tend to keep trending but markets that are have been trending and show conflict rather than harmony are prone to reversals. Is one day of internal conflict a trend killer? Of course not but if the internal conflicts persist or worse if other divergences are seen be ready for a real change in trend.

The NQ futures are at a very key area. The settled higher on the day by 3 handles but did not print a new high on the move. Any time price comes back up to retest a prior high it is important because very few high go untested and most trends require a period of pause or retracement. Last week price settled below the 10ema for the first time this year and the drop was recovered and is now right back to the old high which could be good or bad news. If price fails and begins to roll lower than last week’s low is the CIT denominator.

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral area and has not yet produced an overbought reading.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX was weak on the day but didn’t cross the break down level which would be a killer for the overall NQ.

The OSX continues to bearishly lag crude futures.

The BTK was the best performing major sector and was lower by 0.6%. Keep a close eye on the MACD which is close to breeching the zero level which will kick in downward momentum.

The BKX still has an active Seeker sell signal that hasn’t released its energy yet.

The SOX was contained within the prior day’s range and still has an active sell signal.

The XAU is now 9 days down which puts it on deck for a bounce.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day down a full 2%. Note that the Seeker is 12 days up and only one strong day away from a sell signal.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight Launches New Futures Levels Tool for e-Signal and Tradesight Pressure Threshold Levels

Sunday, March 11th, 2012

Tradesight is pleased to announce the launch of the latest version of the Tradesight Futures Levels Tool for e-Signal, which includes the introduction of the new Tradesight Pressure Threshold Levels. In addition, the Futures tool and Futures Levels service now covers the ES (S&P e-mini), NQ (NASDAQ e-mini), YM (Dow e-mini), ER/TF (Russell 2000 e-mini), YG (gold e-mini), and QM (crude oil e-mini) contracts. Additional contracts are coming soon.

The tool now includes exciting features such as backtesting, Value Area shading, on/off toggles for each line, and more. In addition, the Pivot series Levels, which we calculate based on contract settlement and not market hours, have been expanded from R2, R1, Pivot, S1, and S2 to now include R3 and R4 and S3 and S4.

The key starred levels have changed from three tri-star levels and two dual-star levels to four tri-star levels.

Therefore, each contract now has a value for each of the following:

Breaks (UBreak and LBreak) – Key Murrey Math levels that bracket the market above and below each day, considered by many to be the most important number to know coming into the session.

Pressure Thresholds (UPT and LPT) – Threshold levels that serve as support and resistance, but are also a proprietary calculation from Tradesight that shows the likelihood of a gap fill.

Value Areas (VAH and VAL) – Market profile values that indicate the high and low of where 70% of the trading action occurred in the prior session based on volume.

Settlement-Based Pivot Series – R4, R3, R2, R1, Pivot, S1, S2, S3, and S4 for each contract. These are traditionally support and resistance points for trade management.

Tri-starred Levels – These four levels are “magnet” points for the market and also serve several purposes during trading when hit.

The tool now allow you to plug in any date and view the key levels for that date for back-testing purposes in e-Signal. Dates after 3/1/2012 show all levels. Dates prior to 3/1/2012 show only the Breaks and Value Areas.

The tool is available later this week on the site and will be used extensively in the new Tradesight Futures Course.

Here are two examples of the tool with the Value Area shaded in, first on the ES:

And then on the NQ:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/8/12

Wednesday, March 7th, 2012

The ES was higher on the day by 11 which still leaves the immediate overhead gap open. Price is still bearishly below the 10ema which the bulls need to retake to turn the trend back to short-term positive.

The NQ futures bounced 20 handles but only got as far as the dirty gap fill. The absolute gap remains open.

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral zone.

Multi sector daily chart:

The OSX continues to bearishly underperform oil futures.

The BKX was the top performer on the day but only recorded an inside candle. The Seeker exhaustion signal suggests that the inside pattern will resolve to the downside.

The SOX outperformed the NDX bouncing off the 50dma. Expect very stiff resistance at the 10ema which is the neck level of the H&S pattern.

The OSX posted in inside day.

The BTK broke below the static trend line and bounced off the 50dma. Keep a close eye on the MACD which is very close to the zero line. A break below the zero line will intensify the downward momentum.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day but now has 2 days of bottoming tails on the chart.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/7/12

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

The ES gapped down significantly and proceeded to do nothing much. Price did settle below the open so this qualifies as a distribution day. Note how the chart used the static trend line for support. The next level of support is going to be the rising 50sma.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by 26 which made them relatively strong vs. the ES futures on the day. The active static trend line has not come into play and will be key support when it comes into range. The MACD could just be beginning to rollover which would put downside momentum into the pattern. Price closed below the short-term 10ema.

The 10-day Trin is climbing quickly.

The multi sector daily chart shows how the XAU members continue to get beat with the ugly stick.

The SOX did not break to a new low vs. the NDX which is one of the small bright points on the day.

The relative strength in the NDX today can be clearly seen in the NDX/SPX cross. A real break and rollover would be confirmation that the bears have taken control of the market. This often takes time and we need to monitor this carefully. This is one of the intermarket keys that would put traders on guard that the change in trend will be a lasting one.

The SOX was the top gun on the day which means that it was the best of the bad. Price is currently using the 50dma for support. The measured move target off the H&S pattern projects down to about 395 which has not traded yet.

The BTK has come into first support at the 50dma. The Seeker count is only 5 days down so it is still very possible for the 200dma to come into play.

The OSX has key support just a little below Tuesday’s low where the 50 and 200dmas converge. If price breaks below the lower boundary of the old pennant and the MACD breaks the zero line, look out below.

The BKX was weaker than the broad market. Keep in mind that he 13 exhaustion signal is still active and hasn’t really influenced price yet. The typical expectation of a counter move is a 9 bar move in the direction of the signal.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/6/12

Monday, March 5th, 2012

The ES continues to have trouble with the 8/8 level and Monday gave back 4 handles. Price settled right on the important 10ema. A close below this level would be the first sign of a short-term change in trend.

The NQ futures we also lower on the day and settled right around the 10ema. Keep in mind that the Seeker 9-13-9 pattern has not yet released any of its energy to the downside. The first target after a CIT will be the active static trend line around 2550.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is still neutral:

The SOX/NDX cross pair took a huge hit. A break to a new low would be bearish and likely break the broader NDX100.

The NDX/SPX cross is also flashing a warning sign. The chart has yet to produce a new high where the relative strength of the NDX could really assert itself and now it could possibly be rolling over. A break under 1.90 will be the deal breaker.

The XOI was the best performing sector. It was lower on the day by a fraction but bullishly closed near the high.

The BKX is still range bound but there is still an active Seeker sell signal that has yet to influence price.

The OSX is backing off and should find better support after it gets back into the pattern and near the moving averages which are all in the same price neighborhood.

The BTK continues to roll over and is getting closer to first support at the static trend line (red). Keep in mind that with the gap on the chart the static trend line level is very important and will be an important break level if breeched.

The XAU offered little safety and was much weaker than the major averages on the day. The chart continues to print lower high after lower high.

The SOX was the last laggard on the day and broke through the neck line of the head and shoulders pattern. This projects price roughly down to the midpoint of the trend channel for the typical H & S measured move.

Oil:

Gold:

SLV:

Tradesight.com Market Preview for 3/1/12

Wednesday, February 29th, 2012

The ES posted a very sloppy outside day down. Though the futures were only down by 7 on the day, the chart pattern has a potential reversal candle in place. The candle was small but the turn came just below the Murrey math 8/8 level of 1375.The next 48 hours of trading will be very important to see if this turn follows through to the downside. The early indication of a change in trend will come on a settlement below the 10ema (blue MA on chart) which hasn’t happened since 2011.

The NQ futures were weak but didn’t breech yesterday’s low. AAPL continues to be driving the bus and if it breaks the Naz futures and other high beta stocks will break.

The 10-day Trin still has some room before recording an overbought reading of 0.85 or less.

Multi sector daily chart:

In the multicomparison chart below the important NDX100 continues to have relative strength vs. the SPX.

The put/call ratio remains neutral:

The BKX was the best of the major sectors on the day though it was lower on the day. Keep in mind that there is an active Seeker sell signal that hasn’t released its energy yet.

The BTK is hovering just above last week’s low and has relative weakness vs. all the important averages. Continue to monitor this sector for short setups.

The OSX has bearishly closed below the 10ema. Keep a close eye on a fallback to the triangle breakout.

The SOX has an active Seeker sell signal in place is starting to trace out a head and shoulder pattern.

The XAU was by far the weakest sector on the day after the very sharp break in gold. Next important support is the 50dma at about 192.50.

Gold has a huge decline after recording a Seeker sell signal last week. Support will first be found in the area were the 50dma, 200dma and 4/8 Gann level converge.

Silver collapsed after only yesterday flashing a Seeker sell signal. Note the volume spike in the SLV etf. Real support lies around 31.25 where the 4/8 level and 50dma sit.

Oil:

Tradesight.com Market Prevew for 2/29/12

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

The ES is marching closer and closer to the key 1375 level. Up 4 handles on the day in a very grinding advance the futures are about to interact with the very powerful 8/8 level. Tuesday was a new high on the move.

The NQ futures were relatively strong vs. the ES posting triple the percentage advance. This is good relative strength but it is mostly coming from over weighted index gorilla AAPL. If at some point AAPL breaks, the NDX will get the stuffing pulled out of it. Money will flow out of the NQ faster than an Italian captain can abandon ship.

The 10-day NYSE Trin remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart shows that the SOX is trying to make a move–more on this below.

The SPX/NDX cross bullishly made a new high on the move.

The OSX continues to bearishly lag crude futures. If this persists it will hold crude back and eventually reverse the futures.

The defensive XAU was the top gun on the day. It remains rangebound but is but now above all of the major moving averages. If the XAU reclaims its relative strength vs. the broad market then the overall equity bull trend is getting close to done.

The SOX was higher on the day and outperformed the NDX but it didn’t record a new high.

The BKX was higher on the day but in so doing will record a 13 Seeker exhaustion signal.

The BTK traded inside yesterday’s range and showed relative weakness. Be sure to have an alarm set for a break under last week’s low. Note how the MACD is rolling over.

The OSX also posted an inside day and underperformed the overall market. Price remains overbought and a close under the 10ma could get momentum rolling to the downside.

Oil futures are retreating and falling back to the breakout level.

Gold made a new high on the move and is getting very close to the Nov. highs. The Seeker pattern is now 12 days up but is at risk of recycling.

Silver has now recorded 13 days up in the daily Seeker count.

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/28/12

Monday, February 27th, 2012

The ES gained 4 handles on the day after recouping a gap down that tested the 10ema. The 10eam has been the defining level since the breakaway gap on the first trading day of the year. Keep a close eye on the 8/8 level just overhead.

The NQ futures were higher on the day by 6 making both a new high and new high close on the move. Price is extended and the MACD is starting to top off. Mind the 10ema which has defined the trend.

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral range:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross has not made a new high to confirm the new high in the broad market. If it doesn’t happen in the next 48 hours it will be a notable divergence.

The BKX was the top gun on the day but did not make a new high on the move. Intermediate trends tend to mature when leaders take pause and laggards outperform.

The SOX has a Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in place and hit but retreated from the 8/8 level. Keep a close eye on how the MACD behaves. This move may be mature and ready for a test of the midpoint of the regression channel.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market and is still in the Murrey math overbought territory.

Watch the BTK closely for a break under last week’s low. This was the leading sector and may be ready for a test of the static trend line. The chart pattern has a strong 9-13-9 Seeker setup.

Oil was lower on the day, backing off range high levels.

Gold remains in the overbought area of +1/8:

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/16/12

Wednesday, February 15th, 2012

The ES registered a range high distribution day with price recording a new high, but settling lower on the day. Note that while this leaves a sloppy candle on the chart, this was not a classic key reversal day where price settles below the low of the prior candle. Keep a close eye on the short term trend defining 10ema (blue).

Below is a weekly chart of the ES that clearly shows the importance of this price area. There are a number of technical features. The chart is working on 9 weeks up in the Seeker setup and the prior sell signal is still in effect because there was no downside 9 bar setup and the risk level hasn’t been broken.

The NQ made a new high on the move but closed lower on the day. Like the ES it was a nasty candle but not a key reversal candle. The 800lb gorilla in the room, read AAPL, did record a classic key reversal day and continued downside momentum will weigh on NQ like a Nantucket sleigh ride.

The 10-day Trin is close but has not reached the overbought threshold.

Multi sector daily chart:

It’s time to start monitoring the relative performance of the NDX vs. the SPX very closely. If the NDX becomes relatively weak then stocks are ripe for a correction.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and recorded 11 days up in the Seeker count.

The BTK was higher on the day. Set an alarm for a break under the 10ema.

The BKX was flat on the day. The level to watch is the 8/8 Gann level which was previously resistance and now critical support.

The OSX looks like it’s ready to roll. Price settled below the 10ema and the MACD is now showing sell.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/15/12

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

The ES finished the day about unchanged. Momentum seems to be waning but price must break before any downside consideration can be given. The 9th candle of the current setup recycled the Seeker countdown so the process must start over.

The NQ aggressively surged at the end of the day to close up on the day by 8. Keep a close eye on the active Seeker risk level.

The 10-day Trin is still not overbought:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX continues to bullishly keep its relative strength vs. the SPX.

The SOX was the top performing major sector on the day. Price remains boxed up in the recent range and below the boundary of the upper channel. Keep in mind that a break higher will likely produce a Seeker sell signal.

The OSX was little changed and continues to ride the wedge without breaking.

The BKX was a cause for concern from the day’s performance. Much weaker than the broad market and closing a new 5 day low.

Set an alarm for a break under last week’s low in the BTK. If the market rolls this could be a very nice sector to find overbought stocks that have room to fall before real support.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/14/12

Monday, February 13th, 2012

The ES was higher by 8 on the day which is technically very significant. This will produce the final candle of the active 9 bar Seeker setup. In so doing it will recycle the countdown and defer it to the newly completed setup.

The NQ futures made a new high on the move by gaining 19 on the day. The Seeker sell signal is still active until the risk level is broken. Keep a close eye on the +1/8 overbought level.

The 10-day Trin remains above the overbought threshold of 0.85.

Multi sector daily chart shows that the XAU continues to be a source of funds.

This is the important chart for the next couple of days. The total put/call ratio recorded a climatically low reading. The market will typically have a violent selling episode in the next 1-3 trading day. Once it begins and the intraday market internals confirm play the short side only and avoid buying the breaks which will be treacherous.

The OSX has begun to underperform the underlying oil futures. If oil breaks to the downside there could be limited support until more meaningful levels are traded.

The BTK was the top sector on the day but beware that it may only be a bounce. Keep a close eye on the MACD which is now rolling over.

The BKX was stronger than the broad market. But remains overbought with a Seeker count that is 8 days up.

The OSX is still gaming the upper boundary of the active pattern. Price remains below the 8/8 level.

The SOX underperformed the NAZ which is cause for concern. Be on guard for the breadth narrowing in the NDX where mumbles like AAPL are asked to do too much to hold up the advance. The MACD continues to deteriorate.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/9/12

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

The ES recouped a steep midday loss to close up on the day by 2 handles. The pattern is now 11 days up and has major overhead at the 1375 level.

The NQ futures were higher by 15 handles and are now have an active Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in place. Watch the MACD closely for a crossover.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is still in the neutral zone.

The NDX was relatively strong vs. the SPX which is a healthy sign and has yet to produce that leading divergence that always kills an advance.

The OSX is working on a positive cross of the crude futures which will pull crude futures higher if it follows through.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and recorded a new high on the move.

The BKX was stronger than the market and made a new high on the move. Keep in mind that price is in the overbought Gann area.

The XAU remains trapped between the major moving averages and has been a source of funds.

The OSX remains on the verge of a major breakout or failure. A few more bars are required for confirmation.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/8/12

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

The ES expanded the range to close up on the day by 6 handles. Price has so far been contained by the 7/8 level with the Seeker count getting mature but still only 10 bars up on the run.

The NQ futures were only higher by 3 on the day which is a slight lag relative to the broad market. Today was the 13 count in the Seeker exhaustion run which suggests that a downward reversal is close at hand.

The 10-day Trin is still neutral and has not recorded an overbought reading.

The put/call ratio remains neutral:

The chart to reevaluate at the end of the week will be the NDX/SPX cross. The NASDAQ side is taking a rest. If this turns into actual relative weakness then we will start to emphasize the short side of the market.

The XOI was the top gun on the day and is breaking out away from the triangle consolidation pattern. The Gann box will bullishly frame shift tomorrow.

The SOX was flat on the day with little change and price still under the rising channel. Keep a close eye on the MACD.

The BKX was unchanged on the day and now has two consecutive narrow range days to consolidate the range expansion from last week. Set an alarm for a break above or below Monday’s range.

The OSX closed at the 8/8 level. This is a very key area because of where the active DTL resides. This is another chart that needs to be watched closely this week.

The BTK has a 9-13-9 active and is very overbought. Look to this sector for reversal ideas if the market cracks. Profit taking should be fast and furious if it develops.

Gold was pulled back to the 4/8 level helped by acute dollar weakness.

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/2/12

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

The ES was higher by 11 on the day but did not make a new high on the move. The active static trend line is still repelling the advance. Price remains bullishly above the 10ema with possible a closer test as traders may take a little off the table before Friday’s payroll number.

The NQ futures were up 23 on the session marking a new high for the move. Keep a close eye on the 8/8 level just overhead. Note that the MACD is still positive.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin remains in the neutral zone.

Checking in on the put/call ratio reveals that is has not yet recorded a climatic reading in this advance.

The BTK was the top gun on the day and in so doing exceeded the Seeker risk level. If any print is higher than Wednesday’s high by one tick then the risk level will be broken and the sell signal invalidated.

The SOX was stronger than the Naz and broad market getting close again to the upper channel. The MACD is still negative.

The BKX was higher on the day moving back towards the 8/8 level. Price is still trapped in the consolidation range.

The OSX closed right at the 200dma and also recorded a new high close on the move. This pattern feels like it wants to release in the next 48 hours.

The XAU was the last laggard and is wound up with energy for a move away from the 200dma.

Oil has moved back down to the low of the recent range. A breakdown would likely be bearish for the overall market.

Gold made a new high on the move.

Tradesight Market Preview for 2/1/12

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

The ES closes marginally lower on the day to finish the month just above the 10ema. Today’s candle was a CPS downside alert where price should take out Tuesday’s low before high. Note that the MACD has gone negative.

The NQ futures finished the month higher on the day by 2 handles which is positive but the close was well below the open leaving a camouflage sell signal on the chart. Keep a close eye on the MACD for a bearish cross.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX continues to lag the overall NDX which is historically a bearish condition. In addition to this generalization is that the chart of the cross pair has a bearish expanding pattern in the works.

The BKX was the top gun on the day, posting tiny range candle on the chart. Price remains trapped and awaiting a definitive resolution.

The BTK did nothing on the day and is still sporting a 13 exhaustion signal.

The SOX closed almost unchanged and looks poised for more downside.

The OSX is 9 bars up in the seeker count and the pattern is totally wound up with power. Be ready.

Oil was the notable commodity Tuesday. Early in the session, price was higher by as much as $2 before reversing and breaking a full $4 to the downside.

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/31/12

Monday, January 30th, 2012

The ES recovered a large gap down to settle lower by only 4 handles on the day. There was much better performance in the NQ side and there will be more on this divergence below. There were a few key technical features. Price settled above the 10ema keeping the trend short-term positive and price settled above the open even though it was lower vs. Friday’s close which makes for a camouflage buy condition.

The NQ futures were higher on the day by 5 handles and actually recorded a new high close on the move. Expect a continuation to target the 8/8 level at 2500.

The 10-day Trin still has energy available in the tank before it records an overbought reading.

Multi sector daily chart:

The chart below is the NDX/SPX which yields a ratio. This gives technicians a relative strength gauge of one asset class vs. another. Since the NDX is on the top of the equation or the “numerator” this is the value being evaluated so increasing values are show relative strength and lower reading show weakness. Currently, the NDX is bullishly showing strength vs. the broad market SPX and has been doing so far in 2012.

The BTK was the top sector on the day and is still sporting a Seeker exhaustion signal.

The OSX remains boxed up and consolidating below the 200dma with the Seeker now 9 day up.

The BKX was the anchor on the broad market today with the MACD about ready to release its influence on price.

The SOX was the weaker than the broad market and also the NDX. Price is in an up channel but could easily pull back to the midpoint. Watch out for a MACD cross.

Gold is holding its DTL breakout but has yet to add on or gain momentum.

Oil continues sideways;

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/26/12

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

The ES broke to new highs and accomplished a couple of very important technical points. The static trend line was traded and more importantly the gap from late July that was the origin of the summer break was filled Wednesday. Price is up, price is high but our technical indicators suggest more buying pressure needs to be applied before classic overbought readings are recorded.

The NQ futures recorded a new high on the move and have the 8/8 level in its sights.

The weekly NQ futures have come into a very key area. This is the price were the Seeker sell signal’s risk level resides. The risk level will be broken if it is exceeded on a closing basis and then continues higher by at least one tick on a subsequent bar. This has very big implications for the longer term.

The 10-day Trin is moving lower but still not over bought.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX is bullishly leading the SPX:

The XAU exploded higher after the Fed made it clear that they will add liquidity indefinitely.

The BTK settled right below the 10/8 level, jump roping above the consolidation. The pattern is now 12 days up.

The OSX outperformed the broad market but is still contained within the boundary of the downtrend.

The SOX posted a disappointing session, lagging the market. Price is still consolidating last week’s surge and below the upper channel.

The BKX is still contained by the current trading range. Keep a close eye on the levels.

The EURO had a very strong session and is close to a key area where some important work will have to be done. This is the level where the October low and 50dma converge. 1.3200 will be a very key area.

Oil is still gaming the 8/8 level:

Gold settled right at the active DTL with price back above all the major moving averages again. Note that the MACD is close to a bullish cross.

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/25/12

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

The ES did nothing on the day, and we now have recorded 4 closes that are almost unchanged. This loads the pattern with power for a move after the FOMC decision and press conference Wednesday.

The NQ futures also remain boxed up and loaded with energy. The move away from this area should be decisive when it happens. Technically Tuesday’s close was a new high on the move and right up against the May and July highs.

The 10-day Trin has yet to record an overbought reading.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BTK continues to stage just below the 200dma and 8/8 level. The next overhead is 1281 which will likely also produce a Seeker exhaustion. This is going to be interesting.

The SOX traded inside yesterday’s range so there’s nothing new technically.

The BKX was unchanged and is still above all of the major moving averages. A break away from the consolidation under the 8/8 level should be very powerful.

The XAU was a source of funds and the last laggard on the day. Index member NEM recorded a new year to date low.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/24/12

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

The ES posted a wide ranging day where price settled glued to the key 1312.50 level. Keep in mind that the active static trend line just overhead. Monday was the first day of the new options cycle and there is a two day fed meeting beginning on Tuesday so while there was little overall price bias expect one to develop by midweek.

The NQ futures made a new high on the move but left a wide range doji on the chart. Price has not been able to do much with the break over the July highs.

The 10-day Trin still has not yet recorded an overbought reading of 0.85 or lower.

The multi sector daily chart shows the good relative strength of the SOX.

The XAU was the top performer of the day reclaiming the 10ema.

The XOI was much stronger than the broad market with good relative strength in the gas stocks. Keep a close eye on the risk level of the active Seeker sell signal.

The BKX remains boxed up and below the 8/8 level.

The SOX settled within the prior day’s real candle body. Higher prices, near the upper trend channel, were recorded but rejected. Note there is a good deal of room between the close and the 10ema for a large pullback.

The BTK was one of the worst laggards. The Seeker count remains 11 days up.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/19/12

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

The ES closed at a new high on the move adding 13 on the day. Price exceeded the +2/8 level and forced a bullish frame shift. The subtle level to keep in mind is the static trend line just above the 6/8 level.

The NQ futures broke to a new high and high close on the move taking on 31 handles. One interesting technical feature is that today’s price filled the open gap from late July. The next bull target will be the 7/8 level at 2437.50.

The 10-day Trin has yet to tag the overbought threshold so there still could be more gas in the tank for higher price.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX was by far the strongest sector on the day up a full 5%. Piece topped the 200dma and active static trend line. A bullish trend channel has been added to the chart.

The OSX was also much stronger than the broad market. Keep a close eye on the static trend line just overhead.

The BTK just crossed above the 8/8 level and might need a recharge. Also note that the chart now has a mid-range trend termination candle in place.

The BKX posted a less than stellar inside day. The 8/8 level is still weighing on the advance of the pattern. Price is now wedged between the 200dma and the Murrey level which should produce a powerful move once it’s resolved.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/18/12

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

The ES posted a range high distribution candle. Price was little changed on the day after a strong opening gap. This is a camouflage sell signal which is particularly concerning to the bulls since it’s at the high water mark of the rally that started last year.

The NQ futures posted a wide range doji. Price remains below the static trend line set back in July. The market was bifurcated with strength in the NQ vs. ES so watch this relationship carefully on Wednesday.

The 10-day Trin has come in substantially but has yet to hit an overbought reading of 0.85 or less.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX has yet to confirm the higher high in the SPX. A confirmation of this would be very positive for the overall market and failure would be a divergence in this new school Dow theory pair.

The OSX has yet to get in gear with the higher crude prices which implies that there is still a pretty hefty premium in the futures.

The XOI was the top gun on the day but remains trapped in the bearish rising wedge pattern.

The OIH was positive on the day and had relative strength vs. the broad market. The active static trend line is the current resistance level.

The BTK was unchanged on the day after touching the 200dma. This is a very important level of resistance where the 200dma converges with the 8/8 Gann level.

The BKX interacted with the 8/8 level and didn’t fare well. Initial support will be at the rising 10ema.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and remains in a very wide ranging down trend.

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/12/12

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

The ES was higher by 2 handles on the day after recouping a gap down. Price is still contained within the range to date high so range was not expanded. The pattern is now 7 days up.

The NQ futures were higher by 3 on the day with nothing new technically because it was in inside day. Price did settle above the open but it means very little when it’s an inside candle.

The 10-day Trin took a hit but remains overbought.

Multi sector daily chart:

The BTK was the top gun on the day, breaking to a new multi month high. Expect very strong resistance where the 200dma converges with the 8/8 Gann level.

The banks continue to show relative strength settling above the 200dma. Keep in mind that a gaming of the 200dma could still be in the cards. The 8/8 Gann level is just overhead.

The XAU continues its recovery. Watch the DTL that has been added to the chart.

The SOX posted an inside day just below the 200dma. The pattern is now 7 day up.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day losing more than 1%. Please not the active trend channel added to the chart.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/11/12

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

The ES gained 10 handles on the session making a new high and high close on the move. The problem with the day was that settlement was below the open which leaves a bearish camouflage sell signal on the chart.

The NQ futures were higher by 17 on the day, also settling below the open. In this case while the candle by itself is bearish, it is not a camouflage sell signal because the prior day was a down day. Note the relative weakness in the NQ—more on this below.

In the multi chart below note how the NDX is still well below the Q4 high while the SPX has recorded a new high. This is a bearish divergence because in a typical healthy advance, the NDX will lead.

Multi sector daily chart of key indexes:

The 10-day Trin remains overbought:

The OSX was the top gun on the day, nicely breaking above the 50dma. The next important level is the active static trend line.

The BTK continues to outperform the broad market. Expect resistance at the 7/8 Gann level which stopped the advance in late October.

The XAU was up about 2% but remains below all the major moving averages.

The BKX broke above the Q4 high and can finally be qualified as having positive construction. Expect some gaming and resistance around the 200dma and then the real truth will be revealed.

The SOX touched the 200dma but remains relatively weak. It lagged the Naz today and still needs to better the October high to qualify the potential higher low set in Q4.

Oil:

Gold:

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/10/12

Monday, January 9th, 2012

The ES did nothing on the day, trading inside Friday’s range. Price has done almost nothing since gapping up after the holiday.

The NQ futures were weaker than the broad market losing 5 handles on the day. Price did record a new high on the move intraday and has left an indecisive distribution candle on the chart.

The Vix recorded an up day which could be a precursor on some selling pressure to come.

The 10-day NYSE Trin remains overbought reading above 1.35:

The SOX was the top sector on the day up almost 2%. The next level that comes into play will be the 200dma.

The BKX was also stronger than the market, making a new high close on the move. The index closed just below the +2/8 Gann level. If this level is exceeded on a closing basis it will bullishly force a frame shift. Next overhead is the declining 200dma.

The BTK was also relatively strong but closed at the open. The pattern is now 5 days up in the Seeker which leaves more upside room.

The XAU remains a source of funds for the higher beta rotation (i.e. gold money flowing into SOX and BTK).

Gold was lower on the day:

Oil was lower on the day but held the key $100 level. Price remains bullishly above all major moving averages.

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/5/12

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

The ES ended the day up one handle. The chart still has the open gap from the holiday but today’s close was above the open. Price remains above all the major MA’s.

NQ futures were much stronger than the broad market, gaining 13 on the day. Price settled right at Tuesday’s high which now is an important break level. The CCI is getting a little extended but not yet overbought.

The VIX was again notably lower on the day. Keep looking at the VIX as a near-term directional indicator.

The BKX was the best performing major sector on the day. The area to watch is where the 200dma will converge with the October high. This should be the initial trade to target and formidable resistance if reached.

The XAU posted a measuring day, consolidating Tuesday’s big move. Alarm a break over today’s high for a continuation to the 50dma.

The SOX did very little and is currently trapped between the 10 and 50 period moving averages.

The oil-services stocks were held in check by the 4/8 Gann level. There is a perfect double top in place this week to use as a point of reference. Set an alarm for 226.

The BTK was the last laggard. Keep in mind that there is a fresh 9 bar upside run in place that may need more time recharge.

Gold was higher on the day. Expect decent resistance at 1625 where the 200dma lines up with the 2/8 Gann level.

Oil measured off yesterday’s gain but held pretty strong making a new high close. A break over the current 2 day high puts the +2/8 level in play.

Tradesight Market Preview for 1/4/12

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

The ES gained 20 handles on the day all of which came on the weekend gap. Keep in mind that there was one negative feature to the day’s action because the futures settled below the open. Not really an impressive performance with triple inside candles last week.

The NQ futures were higher by 42 on the day making all of the gain on the opening gap. Note that price has jumped above all the major moving averages but remains contained within the broader triangle pattern.

The cash VIX is in a well defined downtrend. Target the 0/8 Gann level for key support.

The SOX closed near the low of the day and remains below the 50dma.

The OSX was one of the strongest sectors on the day, closing right at the 50dma and the 4/8 Gann level. Keep in mind that the Seeker 13 exhaustion signal is still active.

The BKX showed relative strength and closed right at the 8/8 level. Expect real resistance at the +2/8 level.

The BTK is now 9 days up in the seeker count. Note the proximity of the 8/8 level.

Oil exploded higher and closed at a multi month high. This is a fresh price flip on the Seeker.

Gold was much stronger on the day, fueled by the weaker dollar. The next major level is the 4/8 Gann level.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/29/11

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

The ES reversed and posted a first day down losing 16 on the day. Below is a clean chart to better see the failure at the upper boundary of the triangle..

NQ futures lost 25 on the day which puts it bearishly below all of the major moving averages again. The near-term DTL was never broken and is now pressuring price. 4/8 is the key area nearby at 2250 which is next support.

Multi sector daily chart:

The Dow/gold ratio could be ready to make a move:

BTK was a place to hide and top gun on the day and actually registered an inside candle. Watch this sector tomorrow for the real break.

The SOX was down 1.4% and will be below all major and minor moving averages if the 10ema is lost. Note the DTL that was added to the chart.

The BKX is trying to hang onto the triangle breakout. Price remains on the north side of the 50dma.

The OSX was very weak and remains below the 38% fib. The 13 Seeker signal will look very ominous if the Dec. low is taken out.

Oil settled below 100:


Gold make a new low on the move and a new low close. The Gann box is very close to a bearish frame shift down.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/28/11

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

The ES closed unchanged after expanding the upside range of the current run. Expect that the 200dma might be a near-term draw.

NQ futures were higher by 7 on the day but couldn’t break above the active DTL. Note the proximity of the 200dma which could be a draw in a light volume environment.

Multi sector daily chart:

Note how in the chart below the NYSE cumulative A/D line is bullishly leading the broad market, represented by the SPX.

The BTK was the top gun on the day closing above the 50dma for the first time since October. Keep in mind that there is still an active Seeker buy signal active.

The SOX remains below the major moving averages.

The OSX was almost unchanged on the day with an active Seeker sell signal in play.

The BKX is having trouble at the key 40 level:

The XBD broker-dealer index posted a potential reversal day which would be bad news for the broader financials.

The XAU could be forming a bearish lower reverse cup so set an alarm for a break under 178.

Gold was slightly lower on the day :

Oil broke nicely above the 100 level and is closing in on the recent highs at 102.75.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/22/11

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

The ES was a wild ride, ultimately squeaking out a fractional gain. Note the large triangle that price is tracing out. Key overhead remains at 1250 where the 8/8 level sits.

NQ futures got hit very hard and didn’t recover nearly as well as the broad market side. Price remains below the active DTL.

The performance divergence between the SPX and NDX is very important because the NASDAQ stocks usually lead the broad market SPX. Be sure to reevaluate this relationship next week after the dust settles.

The SOX is also lagging the NDX which is usually an overall bearish condition.

The BKX was top gun on the day, unencumbered by weakness in tech. Keep a close eye on the upper DTL in the triangle pattern.

The OSX was higher and held above the midpoint of yesterday’s range which is a short term sign of strength. Use the 50dma for the near-term bounce target off the Seeker 9 bar run.

The BTK should be monitored for long opportunities off the Seeker 13 buy signal. Use the active static trend line for an initial price objective.

The SOX tested yesterday’s low and held. The pattern is still very sloppy.

Gold tried higher price but was rejected settling below the 0/8 Gann level and 200dma.

Oil has kept its relative strength. Watch the 8/8 Gann level very closely for a breakout/resistance level.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/21/11

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

The ES exploded higher, opening above the upper gap fill threshold, then adding on more and closing at the HOD. This is a price flip on the chart and relieves a good deal of the oversold energy. If the move continues higher the next level is the 1250 area.

The NQ futures were higher by 54 on the day. This blast was fueled by 1300+ stocks that after Monday were 8 days down. This price flip caused many of the stocks to also flip so there are only 229 of the 1300 stocks 9 days down. A near-term DTL has been added to the chart.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin recorded a very low close today at 0.17 but the average is still in oversold territory.

The beaten down XBD was the top gun on the day up 6%. Price is still below the primary DTL (red) but a close and follow through would be a trend changer.

The OSX also greatly outperformed the broad market. 220 is the next overhead challenge.

The SOX outperformed the NDX but is still within the sloppy range. This bounce will turn much more important if the 4/8 375 level is taken out.

The BKX is likely the key piece of the puzzle. The banks regaining some kind of positive footing would be a game changer for the broad market. Note the pattern within the pattern. A break out of the triangle should lead to a retest of the lateral boundary 33-42.

The XAU will be interesting long over 187.50.

Gold bounced back into a key area where the 200dma converges with the 0/8 level.

Oil doesn’t want to stay down. It outperformed the SPX, NDX and Compq. This is likely an asset class to watch in 2012.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/20/11

Monday, December 19th, 2011

The ES was lower by 12 on the day, expanding the downside range in the process. Price closed very close to the round 1200 price. Note that the pattern is now 8 days down and the gap from 11/29 is filled. This doesn’t happen very often but like the ES being 8 days down, there are 1362 stocks 8 days down which implies that either an arrest of the down trend or bounce is close at hand.

The NQ futures were lower by 20 on the day. This is a new low on the move and the 8th day down. The gap window at 2205 is still key support.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin continues to climb and get more oversold. This is fuel in the tank for a reversal off the 1300+ stocks 8 days down.

The NYSE cumulative A/D line remains healthy and leading price:

The BTK was the top gun on the day or the “best of the worst”. The Seeker buy signal is still active.

The XAU matched the low close of the year–key support at 175.

The broker-dealer index is getting close to the lower boundary of the active pattern. Price is right at support from the active static trend line.

The OSX was weaker than the broad market and is now 9 days down.

The SOX was weaker than the Naz and SP and is now 8 days down.

The BKX was the last laggard on the day and remains below all major moving averages.

Oil traded in a range and did little vs. Friday’s settlement.

Gold bounced but is still below the 200dma.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/15/11

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

The ES broke very hard and violated the key support at 1250 and ran all the way down to the next fib at 1203. Price is now below the 50dma and using the gap window as support. If the decline continues, the gap all the way down at 1150 may come into play.

The NQ futures filled the open gap at 2225 and lost the support of the 4/8 Gann level in the process. Like the ES futures there is a large all the way down at the recent low of 2150.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NYSE 10-day Trin is getting more oversold recording 1.46 on Wednesday’s close.

The put/call ratio advanced but did not record a climatic reading;

The previously lagging BKX was relatively strong on the day and managed to record an inside day. Since today’s candle was inside the previous day’s range, there is extra energy wound up in the pattern.

The BTK is now 12 days down in the Seeker count and could form a nice candle if the November gap is filled.

The SOX settled slightly below DTL and is only 5 days down in the Seeker setup.

The XAU is very close to a new low on the move. Major support lies at the 175 0/8 Gann level.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day. The Seeker 13 exhaustion signal is pressing price lower and the current setup count is still immature. The pattern is now aggressively 3 day down from the most recent up candle so expect some kind of relief bounce before more downside.

Gold was sharply lower, losing the 200dma in the process. Key support is in the 1535 are where price bottomed out in September.

Oil was down big settling below the recent range support. Next support is 91.97.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/14/11

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

The ES reversed sharply intraday after gapping up and then trading above yesterday’s high. Price settled right at the key 1220 area discussed in the prior report. The current setup favors that the 1200 gap is likely to fill.

NQ futures were lower by 23 which, at least temporarily, puts price below the 50 and 200dmas. 2250 is a key gap window and doesn’t “fill” until the 2225 area.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX is moving in tandem with the SPX but still has some positive relative strength remaining. A cross where the NDX becomes weaker than the SPX would be very, very bearish.

The OSX continues to bearishly lag crude futures. This usually results in negative price action in the futures as they ultimately trend in the direction of the underlying stocks.

Semiconductors are still bearishly lagging the overall NDX.

The NYSE 10-day Trin is once again at the 1.35 oversold threshold.

The BTK was the top gun on the day.

The BKX is now back below all the major moving averages. There is minor support right here at the 37.50 level. There is more important support at 34.37.

The OSX closes below yesterday’s low and was relatively weak even with higher oil prices. Keep in mind that there is a fresh Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in play.

The SOX was awful–much weaker than the Naz or SP. Keep a close eye on the minor up sloping DTL which lines up with the open gap from 11/29.

The XAU is picking up speed to the downside and has settled below the active static trend line. Next support is in the 180 area.

Oil was higher by $2+:

Gold broke very hard and hit the 0/8 Gann level. The Seeker setup is only 4 days down. Set an alarm for a break under the 200dma which could trigger some stops.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/13/11

Monday, December 12th, 2011

The ES settled the day down 23 in the middle of the traded range on the day. The futures are using a very key level at 1220 for support where the 50dma, 50% near-term relative fib and 3/8 Gann level converge. Expect price action to deteriorate very quickly if the futures settle below this level.

The NQ futures were lower by 28 on the day but closed near the traded high of the day. Price remains above both the 50 and 200dma’s. The other minor positive is that while the ES is using the 3/8 level as support the NQ is still holding above the 4/8 level.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NYSE 10-day Trin is back up to the 1.30 level. Keep in mind that Friday’s reading of 4.97 will be in the 10 day range for almost two weeks and keep the readings elevated.

The put/call ratio registered a low reading of 0.79:

The cumulative A/D line remains constructive and lot lagging price:

The BTK was the best of the worst on Monday, outperforming both the Naz and SP.

The BKX was lower by 2.5% but held above the 50dma. Price is still within Friday’s range. Set an alarm for a break under Monday’s low which would be very bearish for the overall market.

The SOX continues to be relatively weak and is a drag on the NDX and by association also the SPX. Keep an eye on the upwardly sloping trend line (red) because if this is lost the trend is back to overall negative and no longer lateral.

The OSX was very weak on the day, likely feeling the weight of the lower oil prices. Keep in mind that this late cycle performing sector has a fresh Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in play.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day. Price is using the 3/8 level for minor support just as the broad market futures are.

Gold broke decisively lower, undercutting the Dec and Nov lows.

Oil is tracing out a rough triangle pattern:

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/8/11

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

The ES settled up 9 handles on the day, close to the high of the recent range. Note that the pattern is now 8 days up. This is the first settlement above the 200dma on this impulse.

The NQ futures were not as strong as the financially influenced ES. Price was unchanged on the day and the close was below the intraday high of the move.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin remains neutral:

The put/call ratio has yet to record a climatic spike to the downside:

The broker-dealer index was the top gun on the day and is now 8 days up.

The SOX outperformed the Naz and closed at a new high on the move. The next challenge is the September high.

The BKX was up 1% and is just below prior resistance at the 40 level.

The XAU did nothing and posted a narrow range inside day.

The BTK continues to hang on by a thread.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day, using the 10ema for intraday support. Note that the Seeker has an active 13 sell signal in place.

Gold was higher by 14 on the day.

Oil was weaker than the market, just holding above 100.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/7/11

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

The market did very little on Tuesday, unable to move higher because of yesterday’s camouflage sell signal and supported by the latent bids from the bulls. There is nothing new technically other than the pattern printing 7 days up in the Seeker setup.

The NQ futures posted a similar day, weighed down by the camo sell signal. Volume across most trading vehicles was very, very light.

Multi sector daily chart:

The NYSE 10-day Trin has retreated back to the neutral area. While the oversold energy has now been depleted, there is room to go before an overbought reading is recorded.

GDX was the best performing sector on the day:

The SOX was slightly lower on the day:

The OSX posted a narrow range inside day:

The BKX was much weaker than the broad market but still managed to post an inside day. Keep in mind the resolution of an inside day usually packs more punch then a typical day.

Oil is still consolidating just above the 100 level.

Gold was lower on the day but recouped a bigger loss by settlement.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/6/11

Monday, December 5th, 2011

The ES futures gained 11 on the day but settled below the 200dma after trading above it—this is issue one. The pattern is at range high off the recent 1150 low but today’s action settled well below the open recording a camouflage sell signal—this is issue two. These are two real concerns for the bulls to chew on for Tuesday’s session.

NQ futures also recorded a range high camo sell signal. Price was up 21 on the day but may traders will interpret this as a distribution day with key resistance above.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is back into the neutral area but is still far from overbought.

The Dow/gold ratio is near the 2009 breakdown level at 7.10. A close above this level would be the first indication that long term folks are adding risk to their portfolios.

The put/call ratio has yet to record a climatically bullish reading.

The NYSE cumulative advance/decline ratio remains strong implying that the Q2 high will be seen again.

The BKX was the top gun on the day. A close over 42 would qualify the November low as a higher low and be overall very constructive for the market.


The OSX was stronger than the broad market and continues to be a leader. The reverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact.

The semiconductors continue to lag. The index posted a camouflage sell signal.

The BTK is still a laggard and seems to be a source of funds.

The XAU was the true source of funds on the day. Price used the Gann 4/8 level as support. This is a very key area for the gold bulls to hold.

The OSX continues to lag crude futures which is generally a negative condition for both.

SOX continue to bearishly lag the NDX.

The XAU has broken and bearishly diverged from gold futures.

Tradesight Market Preview for 12/1/11

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

The SP was higher by 49 on the day forming an island below the 50dma and almost reaching the key 1250 level. If 1250 is taken then the next level will be the 200dma at 1262. The market is very short term over bought advancing 90+ handles in three days. Expect some near-term exhaustion at the 1250 level but keep in mind that the overall intermediate-term condition is still OVERSOLD (more below).

NQ futures were higher by 83 on the day and settled above the 200dma. The pattern is similar to the SP in that the huge gap on Wednesday left an island below the 2250 area. The Shorts are trapped and upside down.

The 10-day Trin at 1.53 remains oversold. While the very short-term price action is overbought the market still has inherent upside energy until the Trin normalizes.

The put/call ratio did not record a climatic overbought reading.

The BKX was the top gun on the day up 7% on the day. This is a very strong impulse but using the 7/11 analysis, price will need to consolidate before making following through.

The XAU was stronger than the market which of some concern because of the defensive nature of the sector. Price did close above the 200dma. Note that this is a Seeker price flip.

The OSX did just what is needed and covered a great deal of upside range getting closer to the H & S neckline. The pattern is still in play.

The SOX was a little stronger than the Naz and settled above the 50dma.

BTK was about as strong as the Naz so there is nothing new technically.

Gold was strong fueled by dollar weakness and was much weaker than the equity averages.

Oil settled above the $100 level and remains positive.

Oil

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/30/11

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

The ES posted a classic measuring day where neither the bulls nor bears really asserted themselves. Price closed high on the day by 5 handles right at the gap window and below all the key moving averages. This is the definition of a measuring day where both sides of the market take stock of each other and await commitment to a side of the trade.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by 8 handles which puts it back under the gap window. Price remains below all the major averages and has the same overall design as the SP side.

Multi sector daily chart:

The defensive XAU sector was top gun on the day. Price has pivoted off the active static trend line. A break over the 50dma (red) puts the 4/8 level at 200 in play.

The OSX traded in-line with the broad market. If price doesn’t pick up tomorrow, the reverse H&S pattern is in big trouble.

The BKX was relatively weak and continues to be a drag on the overall market. Today’s candle was inside Monday’s range so a breakout either way tomorrow could be powerful.

The BTK was weaker than the Naz and SP, key resistance remains at 1050.

The SOX is still well below all major moving averages and holding back the Naz.

Gold:

Oil closed just below the key 100 level and continues to show good strength vs. competing assets.

Keep an eye on copper. The 50dma (green) has been defining the trend and it was relatively strong vs. the market today. The MACD has recharged but not buckled. The price action is illustrated by the JJC etf below.

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/29/11

Monday, November 28th, 2011

The ES gained 37 on the day all of which came from a huge gap up. The oversold energy took trade up to a key area just below the 50dma and below the 1197 gap window. The technicals remain negative but there is enough oversold energy in the pattern to continue higher.

NQ futures posted a stronger day because there was some positive distance between the open and close (note how this is seen in the white body of the NQ candle while the ES candle was a doji). 2225 is the key level here which is the gap level where a vacuum lies until price reaches 2250.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is retreating from the extremely oversold reading above 2 and still has a ton of potential upside energy. In the chart below note how the previous spikes lead to multi-day advances that covered good range.

The BTK was the top performing major sector pivoting off the 0/8 Gann level.

The XBD Broker-Dealer index also bounced off a key level. Keep an eye on MS, GS and the others.

The OSX found support exactly at the lower window of the right shoulder. The pattern is still intact.

The SOX traded with the market and is still below all the minor and major moving averages.

The BKX was weak relative to the market and continues to be a concern. Index member BAC barely closed up on the day.

Gold was higher by 28:

Oil was much higher intraday but settled up some. The 100 level is the level that needs to be taken. Price remains above the major ma’s.

Traedesight Market Preview for 11/23/11

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

The ES lost 8 on the day, mostly trading inside yesterday’s range. Note that the MACD has broken the zero line.

The NQ futures traded with relative strength vs. the ES posting a true inside day. The bias is lower and the gap window at 2225 is key.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin pushed higher making the third highest close of the year. This loads the market with oversold energy.

The defensive XAU was top gun on the day:

The BTK was the only other major sector up on the day which is a small consolation because this is just an oversold bounce.

The OSX was down 1% and continues to game the 50dma.

The SOX is right at last support. If this level is lost the door is open for downside momentum to develop. Note that the MACD is right at the zero line.

The BKX expanded the range to the downside. The bias remains negative.

Gold was higher by 21:

Oil is still holding above the 200dma:

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/22/11

Monday, November 21st, 2011

The ES lost 23 on the day decisively breaking last week’s range and losing the 50dma in the process. Fibs have been added to the chart from the swing low to high of the recent move. A loss of the 50% level would be very bearish and put the October low in play. One small positive is that the MACD is still above the zero line.

The NQ futures used the 3/8 Gann level as support but surrendered the 4/8 Gann level. The breakdown was confirmed on Friday and Today’s price action was genuine follow through. The MACD has bearishly penetrated the zero level. Next support is the active static trend line around 2162 (red line).

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is getting very oversold. The most recent reading has it at 1.92. This tells us that the market is very short-term oversold and could see a meaningful turn..

The NDX has quickly lost a great deal of its relative strength and the near-term performance of index overweighed AAPL should be watched closely.

The OSX continues to bearishly underperform the crude futures.

There is still a divergence in the XAU/gold cross where the XAU is bearishly underperforming the underlying commodity.

The BTK broke to a new low on the move. Keep a close eye on the Gann 0/8 level at 1k.

The XAU bounced off the active static trend line. This Seeker setup is only 4 days down with the potential for a velocity break of the STL.

The SOX broke back below the 50dma and should find minor support at the 360 level where the trend channel resides.

The OSX has broken the triangle pattern and has minor support at the 50dma. Key support is at the 210 area which is the where the reverse H&S patter traces out.

The BKX was the last laggard on the day losing a full 3%. As long as this sector remains weak the broad market is anchored.

Gold was very weak and a source of funds for the margin sellers. Price settled below the 62% fib and has next support at the 50% level.

Oil also got whacked. The key near-term level is the 200dma and then the active static trend line. Note that the MACD has just rolled over.

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/17/11

Wednesday, November 16th, 2011

The ES closed on the low of the day losing 23 handles. Price has penetrated the low of the current triangle but hasn’t yet followed through to confirm the break. The price action in the next 48 hours will set the tone for the next move.

The NQ futures lost 46 on the day but did yet to break any important technical levels. If the 200dma is lost then the price action from the last 5 weeks will turn into a nasty area of distribution and trap all the longs that got invested into the Q3 earnings season.

Multi sector daily chart, note the relative underperformance of the BTK:

The OSX was the top gun on the day and the only major sector to close in the green. Price attempted to break above the triangle but settled back within the pattern negating any real technical development.

The SOX outperformed the Naz and SP. Price remains trapped between the September high and the 50% fib.

The BTK is getting very close to the range low close.

The BKX was weaker than the broad market and settled just above the 50dma. This is very key support that needs to hold.

Gold was lower by 17 on the day:

Oil broke strongly above the 100 level and is now in the overbought area of the Gann box.

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/16/11

Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

The ES reversed back to the upside but is still trapped under the 200dma and within the triangle pattern. The pattern needs to be resolved before there is any new technical development.

The NQ futures were higher by 17 on the day besting the range from the last few days. The MACD remains negative but so far price remains bullishly above the 200dma.

Multi sector daily chart:

Intermarket analysis:

The NDX is still bullishly leading the SPX.

Oil service stocks represented by the OSX are bearishly lagging oil futures. This implies that when oil hits the next level of resistance, it will fail.

The SOX is badly lagging the NDX and will be a drag until the relationship normalizes.

The XAU is slightly lagging gold futures but the divergence is very minimal. Keep a close eye on the chart to see if the divergence widens which would be bearish for the underlying commodity.

The SOX was top gun on the day, leading all other major sectors. The break over the 50% fib is the key to much higher prices and an overall positive NDX. Although not denoted on this chart, the current pattern is 10 days up in the Seeker sell countdown with little chance of a recycle.

The Dow transports are back again to challenge the 200dma. Dow theorists are watching this very closely.

The BKX was higher on the day and traded in-line with the performance of the broad market. Key support just below at the 50dma

The OSX closed little changed on the day. Like the broad market, the OSX is winding up inside a triangle.

Keep a close eye on the BTK for a break back above the 1088 level which will could turn initiate a Seeker price flip and pivot the trend off the 9 bars down.

Oil is now 9 day up and into the static trend line. This is key resistance and a huge level.

Tradesight Market Preview for 11/15/11

Monday, November 14th, 2011

The ES lost 9 handles on the day, settling just above the 1250 price magnet. Note that the recent pattern since 10/27 is tracing out a triangle. The breakout should be significant. Perhaps we’ll see it Tuesday or Wednesday?

The NQ futures are still in the same lateral range, losing 7 on the day. There are no new technical features since price was contained within Friday’s range.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is oversold reading well over the 1.35 level.

The put/call ratio recorded a complacent but not climatic reading of 0.79.

The daily cumulative A/D line of the NASDAQ composite continues to bearishly lag price.

The BTK was the only major sector that was positive on the day. Note that the patter is 9 days down on the Seeker and could pivot back up to the midpoint anytime.