Archive for the ‘Tradesight’ Category
Thursday, May 23rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, VVUS triggered long (without market support) and worked:

FNSR triggered short (without market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FCX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His POT triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work initially, worked later:

COST triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, stock recap
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Thursday, May 23rd, 2013
Couple of winners on the ES and NQ for the session. See those sections below. The markets gapped down big and eventually rallied back up most of the way on volume of 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. There was a great YM Value Area setup (check below how it stopped right at VAL to the tick) but it never triggered.
Net ticks: +8 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1641.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered long at 2982.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half 5 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Thursday, May 23rd, 2013
That is some slow-moving Forex stuff. See EURUSD section below for our winner on the session, but it sure took a long time to get there.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, never stopped, finally hit first target at B, holding with a stop under UPT at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ARAY triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

VECO triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His ABX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His DUST triggered short (without market support) and worked:

Mark’s GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered short (without market support) and worked:

Rich’s FSLR triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, although it did work later with market support:

His SWI triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

BBRY triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: bbry, gdx, gild, stock recap
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Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
Net ticks: +2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at 1672.25 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. This was actually not the price I meant to enter, which was under the VAH after it set that level. Apologies:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s long triggered at A at 3038.00, hit first target, he adjusted the stop three times and stopped the final piece at 3044.00 at B:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
A wild session, mostly due to Bernanke’s testimony to Congress. This took the US Dollar down and back again for the session. See EURUSD section below for our trade triggers.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A early and stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at B, hit first target at C, and lowered stop under UPT, which stopped at D. Amazingly, the reversal caused the short to trigger late in the session at E, and I closed it out at F for 10 pips as it had come a long ways to get there. It ended up working to the first target. Could have just moved a stop over the entry level:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SKUL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s JPM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered short (without market support under 905) and didn’t work:

Added a second GOOG trigger short that triggered (with market support this time) and worked:

Mark’s GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

SINA triggered short (without market support) and worked:

Rich’s SPWR triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: GOOG, sina, skul, stock recap
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Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
A clean winner on the NQ. I cancelled an ES long call over lunch that would have at least worked to the first target. See NQ section below.
Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at 3017.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed final piece 7 ticks in the money:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, May 21st, 2013
Not an exciting session. We stopped out of the GBPUSD from the prior session in the money, and had new triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short very early (half size) in the Asian session and A and stopped. Triggered short again in the normal session at B, never made it to the first target, and closed out just over the entry at C:

GBPUSD:
Closed the second half of the prior day’s trade for 40 pips:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, May 20th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, WERN triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

SNPS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

FTNT triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

IRWD triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SCTY triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work, then triggered late with market support and worked big:

Rich’s CELG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s RGLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 4 did not.
Tags: celg, gs, irwd, stock recap
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Monday, May 20th, 2013
A small winner that hit the first target on the NQ. Nothing else triggered, and we went ours without even hitting a Level to start.
Net ticks: +2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 3016.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half at 3017.50:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Monday, May 20th, 2013
A winner in the GBPUSD for the session, and we’re still holding the second half. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
There was a very early trigger that might have gotten you into a piece of your half size early entry and stopped. Meanwhile, triggered long at A, hit first target hours later at B without stopping, and we’re holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, May 20th, 2013
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 51.7%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +65
Things were fairly flat for most of April, so the results weren’t quite as good as the prior two months, but the Forex market continues to perform better than the back half of 2012. Ranges have been holding steady. We came into the month with the EURUSD 6-month average daily range at 97 and the same for the GBPUSD at 95. We closed the month with those numbers at 102 and 105, respectively. 5 pips of range added to a 6-month average is actually a good improvement and makes a big difference in trading. Our final numbers fell into the ranges that we like, which is that we target 50-60 percent winning trades, and we won 51.7%. However, there were more trades than usual that we closed around the entry due to lack of movement. There were really only a couple of big winners for the month. The last week or so really knocked about 50 pips off the total for the month, but as long as ranges continue to improve, there is no reason to go light on the Forex markets. I’ve been full size since around the start of the year and continue to be, minus the usual adjustments for key data, etc. What we would really like to see now is more directional movement as the month was fairly flat for the US Dollar Index overall.
Tags: forex results, fx
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Monday, May 20th, 2013
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -39 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 40.6%
Net ticks: -76 ticks
Not much to say, other than this was the single worst month we’ve had in the service based on the official calls. Market volumes continue to be very light, and this is having an impact on intraday ranges. Several trades that ultimately worked stopped out once or twice first, and very few trades that worked went beyond the first target much. This is not a recipe for success, and we continue to suggest playing lightly in the futures market until volume returns. The results were impacted by 28 ticks of losses in the last two days of trading, but with only a single trade in the month that went much beyond its first target, this was not going to be a very successful total month.
Tags: futures, futures results
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Saturday, May 18th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CPRT triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s RIG triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s BIIB triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.
Tags: cprt, fslr, gs, stock recap
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Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Typical options expiration Friday. Nothing happened for most of the day, although we did rally late strangely. NASDAQ volume was strong early for expiration and topped out at 1.7 billion shares. No calls triggered.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:

Tags: futures recap
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Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Another winner to close out the week. See the GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target eventually at B, and stopped the second half at C:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, May 15th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered, which is strange.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CAT triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His LNKD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (without market support) and didn’t really work initially under our parameters, then worked, then reversed hard:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: gs, lnkd, stock recap
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Wednesday, May 15th, 2013
Big winner in the ES for the session after what seemed like a ridiculously slow first hour (although it set the breakout level several times).
Net ticks: +20 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
After hitting the UBreak/VAH several times and looking frozen for the first hour, our call triggered long at A at 1648.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I raised the stop several times until the final exit for 34 ticks at 1657.00 at B:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, May 15th, 2013
Another winner in the EURUSD. We’re still holding the second half. Ranges were decent, and the EURUSD traded average range.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop a few pips over S1:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, May 14th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, KERX gapped over, no play.
ECYT triggered long (with market support) and worked:

THLD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s TSLA triggered short (without market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

EBAY triggered long (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them work.
Tags: ebay, GOOG, stock recap, tsla
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Tuesday, May 14th, 2013
A gap and run session that just kept going and never set any levels, then gave us Comber sell signals, and then couldn’t even retrace to the VWAP. See ES and NQ below.
Net ticks: -14 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1643.00 and stopped for 7 ticks, did not re-enter:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 2988.50 and stopped for 7 ticks, did not re-enter:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, May 14th, 2013
Nothing triggered again overnight and then we had a small winner on the GBPUSD, which I closed out because it hadn’t gone far. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, closed at B for end of session about 15 pips in the money:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, May 13th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no calls due to data issues over the weekend from my scanning provider. The MRVL that we have been watching for the last 5 sessions did trigger (without market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

COST triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AMZN, GOOG, stock recap
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Monday, May 13th, 2013
Our call did not trigger on a light-volume Monday with a lack of range. We retraced to the VWAP repeatedly.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Note the 9-bar setup against the UBreak was the stall out point over lunch:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, May 13th, 2013
Even though the triggers weren’t that far apart, neither trade call on the EURUSD triggered to start the week. The long trigger was a couple of pips from the high of the session. See EURUSD below, and we’ll try again tonight.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, May 10th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ADNC gapped over, no play.
ARIA triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NTAP triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered short (just barely without market support) and worked, note that the Comber 13 buy signal was the low:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 2 did not, but AAPL worked big.
Tags: AAPL, fslr, stock recap
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Friday, May 10th, 2013
A boring session with a small winner that only hit the first target and a late-day trigger. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares, and the ES stuck in a 6 point range for most of the session. See ES section below for the two recaps.
Net ticks: +3.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
The short triggered at A at 1622.75, hit first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry. The long triggered in the last half hour at B at 1629.25 and ended up closing for a tick given the time of day:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, May 10th, 2013
A new EURUSD trade that closed out for about a 75-pip winner, and we still had the second half of the GBPUSD from the prior session, which we closed out the final piece of for 200 pips.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Once again, nothing major to see in the daily charts.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week (which was a nice close as it moved back up after):

GBPUSD:
Came into the session still short from 1.5530, lowered stop a few times, and stopped finally at A at 1.5330 for 200 pips:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, May 9th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CPHD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

BIDU triggered long (without market support just barely) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

We put the trade back into the Messenger and it triggered long again (with market support) and worked great:

GOOG triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

AMGN triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and ultimately worked, but technically stopped using our 1-point number:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, stock recap
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Thursday, May 9th, 2013
A nice call swept and stopped once before working. Today was much slower than the prior two days in the market, although volume was back up to 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. We did see a drop late in the session on rumors about Bernanke.
Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1527 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece at 1525.75 at C:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, May 9th, 2013
A loser and a nice winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below as the US Dollar finally moved nicely.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, didn’t quite get to first target, and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, still holding about 100 pips in the money on the second half:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, May 8th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, IDTI triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TIBX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t do enough in either direction to count:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark’s AZN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Tags: AMZN, azn, idti, ntap, stock recap
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Wednesday, May 8th, 2013
A clean, single-direction move in the markets to the upside on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares gave us a nice winner for the session. See ES below.
Net ticks: +9 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s long triggered at A at 1621.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and after raising the stop 4 times, stopped 12 ticks in the money at 1624.75 at B:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, May 8th, 2013
A nice clean winner on the GBPUSD. See that section below. Ranges were better, about 120 pips on the GBPUSD and EURUSD, so we should have decent levels spacing for tonight’s new calls.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop twice and stopped at C:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Tuesday, May 7th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PBCT triggered long (with market support) and held in the money, although never did much and we closed it when market direction rolled, but note that even in a flat market, the Comber called the high:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AKAM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s YHOO triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

COST triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not, and we won’t count PBCT.
Tags: AMZN, nflx, stock recap
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Tuesday, May 7th, 2013
Volume was much better early, although it really drifted off in the second half and only closed at 1.6 billion shares on the NASDAQ. We had a winner on the ES, see that below.
Net ticks: +3 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1617.75, hit the first target for 6 ticks but didn’t get through so not everyone would have been filled. Because we had the gap below and were stalling out at R2, I closed at 1618.50. There was also a nice setup falling back under UBreak for the gap fill:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, May 7th, 2013
Strange night. Take a look at the down and back on the US Dollar Index below. And see the EURUSD section for the trade recap.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
So early on, part of our entry under our order staggering rules triggered at A and stopped, then the rest would have triggered at B on the news spike if you got a fill, hit first target at C, and stopped the second piece under D:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, May 6th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, HIMX gapped over the trigger, so no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His RLGY triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His LULU triggered short (without market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked on a light volume day.
Tags: cost, GOOG, stock recap
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Monday, May 6th, 2013
A loser on the NQ and a small winner on the ES. See both sections below.
This Friday, I will have a longer post to make about the current state of futures and how to handle what we’re seeing in this market with volume low. Today’s NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion shares, and the ES range was only 6 points.
Based on the results of the survey from the weekend (and thanks to those that filled it in), I’m going to get a little more detailed about the futures trading environment.
Net ticks: -5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
My call triggered long at A, never stopped over lunch, finally headed up. It technically never traded at the first target, but I posted at B when I took the partial and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Nice setup that set the Break level early, Mark’s call triggered long at A but triggered on no volume and didn’t work. Technically, it worked on the retrigger, but because of the volume issues early, Mark called off taking it again:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Monday, May 6th, 2013
Almost no movement overnight in the EURUSD, and then in the US session, the short triggered and didn’t do much. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short finally at A, but didn’t hit first target or stop and closed at B for 10 pips of loss for end of session:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, May 3rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PCAR gapped over the trigger, no play.
LAMR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

IRDM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GILD triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His LULU triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 5 did not.
Tags: GOOG, lamr, stock recap
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Friday, May 3rd, 2013
A huge gap up in the markets took us away from all key levels, and we never got enough movement during the day to touch them. The only thing the ES touched was a tri-star level in 8 points of range. The NQ did start right over the UPT and launched. NASDAQ volume was a solid 1.6 billion shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Friday, May 3rd, 2013
A crazy session with the NFP data, which is why we go half size ahead of that data. Ended up with three triggers, including one on that data that might not have filled. See GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. For the third weekend in a row, nothing to see in the daily charts for patterns or for Seeker/Comber signals.
GBPUSD:
The long triggered early at A, didn’t stop out, triggered again at B if you missed it, went over halfway to the first target but didn’t get there (note the 9 bar setup) and then stopped on the economic data spike. The short triggered at C on the data (still half size, and frankly, if you are awake, you should cancel ahead of data), but hit first target if you got a fill. Lowered stop in the morning and stopped over the entry at E. Then, with the data behind, back to full size and triggered long at F, hit first target at G, and stopped out at the same level as G on the way back down to close the week:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, May 2nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ABMD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GILD triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His JPM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:

NTES triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work initially because the stock was so thin, worked great immediately after:

Mark’s ALTR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, abmd, GOOG, stock recap
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Thursday, May 2nd, 2013
One small winner that took forever and eventually would have been a big winner but took too long and stopped out the second half first. The market gapped up and never looked back, especially once it broke the UPT on the ES. Volume was 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Well, that’s pretty much an example of what’s wrong with the market recently. The ES call triggered long at A at 1586.50, hit first target for 6 ticks at B, which took long enough, and then we adjusted the stop on the second half under the entry and it stopped after another 30 minutes, and then finally shot up like we would have wanted in the first place and hit R2:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, May 2nd, 2013
Crazy night on the ECB rate announcement. This is why we go half size ahead of key data, which was really about the Trade Balance number but also the ECB announcement. See EURUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short on the spike at A, which stopped, and is unfortunate because it would have later triggered at B and worked, although that was another spike and who knows how the fills would have gone:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, May 1st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CNQR triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked great, but wide spread:

VRSK triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

CSTR triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s ALXN triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His XLNX triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His CRM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His MA triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered long (without market support) and worked:

EBAY triggered long (with market support) and didn’t do enough either way to count, also posted to close at even in the Messenger:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: cstr, stock recap
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Wednesday, May 1st, 2013
The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is a powerful tool for traders, but you have to understand the implications of what it means to completely grasp it’s use. In the weeks ahead, we will be focusing several articles on the VWAP and how it can be a useful tool in a variety of ways.
If you don’t know, the VWAP ends up operating like a moving average, but it does so by weighting the price and size of each trade.
So for example, let’s say that we have three prices: 40, 41, and 42. An average of those three would be calculated by adding them up and dividing by 3. That would give you (40 + 41 + 42 = 123) / 3 = 41. A moving average keeps adding data in the form of price and dividing equally by the number of data points.
A VWAP, on the other hand, takes two pieces of information for each price into account before doing the math. It takes the price AND the number of shares for that print. So, now let’s say that we have three data points, which is 100 shares traded at 40, 200 shares traded at 41, and 900 shares traded at 42. Note that this is the same 3 prices that we had when calculating the average price example, but now we have size to go with each. What the VWAP does is take each price times size and divide by the total size.
So, we get:
40 x 100 = 4,000
41 x 200 = 8,200
42 x 900 = 37,800
Add those totals up (50,000) and divide by the total number of shares (1200) and you get 41.67, the VWAP. See how the number is far more skewed toward 42, which is where the much bigger print occurred?
So, what do we do with this?
Institutional traders would prefer to buy below the VWAP and sell above the VWAP. Why? Because it means that they got a better price buying or selling their big block of stock for the day than the average trader. A lot of times, that means that if a stock has been moving down and reverses to the upside, it will stall out right at the VWAP. Who wants to be the guy paying more than the average of everyone else? Of course, at some point, someone often does, but that in itself is confirmation that the dynamics of the stock have shifted for the session.
So, let’s take a look at today’s (Wednesday, May 1, 2013) action in the ES (S&P e-mini futures):

We gapped down for the session at A. The purple line is the VWAP of the day as we go along, starting with the open. Note that we opened right where the VWAP had been at the close of the prior session (even though the price late in the day had been much higher).
The market trades flat for the first 30-40 minutes and finally breaks lower on a pair of bad economic numbers. It doesn’t go far on the data, and in fact, after just 15 minutes, seems to be stalling. Keep in mind that this is an FOMC announcement day, which usually means that the market is slow early. So as the small move down fails and the market starts to head up, the ES comes back to the VWAP at B. It then gets blue to the VWAP for hours, really not leaving it either way.
Over lunch, the market starts to drop at C ahead of the Fed announcement. The sellers are banking on something pushing the market lower, and this time the move is bigger. The announcement comes out, and nothing surprisingly negative is in it. Those that were selling ahead of the announcement start to buy back, and it takes the ES once again back to the VWAP at D. Note that this time, the ES uses the VWAP very precisely as resistance and can’t close above it on two attempts. No one wants to pay over that price, and there is nothing compelling to make them.
Do individual stocks care about the VWAP? Sure, let’s take one of the current market trading favorites, NFLX. This stock sold off sharply today in the morning and spent most of the morning down quite a bit. As it starts to rise after the Fed, does any big trader want to be the first to pay over the VWAP? Let’s have a look:

Clearly not.
The VWAP has many terrific uses, but these two charts alone give you a starting point about its validity.
Tags: education, es, futures, nflx, stocks
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Wednesday, May 1st, 2013
Another nice setup, another trigger and fail. See ES below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1589.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. Couldn’t break the Pivot and fill the gap inside the Value Area:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, May 1st, 2013
One last winner to close out the month of April. See the EURUSD below. The Fed announcement didn’t do much to the pairs.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, woke up in the morning and adjusted the stop to C in the money. Note that the Fed announcement late in the session didn’t expand the range:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, April 30th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TQNT gapped over, no play.
CPRT triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

INWK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMGN triggered short (without market support) too late in the day to do anything:

FSLR triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s VLO triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s AKAM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His BRCM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Tags: akam, fslr, inwk, nflx, stock recap
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Tuesday, April 30th, 2013
See ES and NQ’s below to close out the month. NASDAQ volume was strong at 1.8 billion shares, but the futures trading continues to be choppy, and we had one trigger on news. The one thing that did work yet again is that the Comber called the high of the day on the ES midday. See below.
Net ticks: -21 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Note the Comber 13 was the top out point midday.
Mark’s long triggered over lunch right at the 13 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Meanwhile, my short ended up triggering right before the Consumer Confidence number at A at 2856.00 and stopped on the news (you want to take less size or pass in the minutes before a big news item). Despite the fact that the number beat by a lot, the trade triggered again a few minutes later, came within a 1/4 point of the first target, and stopped. This is the 5th time this month that the NQ, which we use half points as ticks on, has come within a quarter point of the target. Unreal:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, April 30th, 2013
ere’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
The long from yesterday stopped at A just around the original entry. New short triggered at B, gave you hours to setup and take, but then stopped:

GBPUSD:
Set the Pivot triggered perfectly at A, triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered long again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, raised stop and stopped at E:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, April 29th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s WYNN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked big:

FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a quick partial:

Rich’s FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: ffiv, GOOG, stock recap
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Monday, April 29th, 2013
Mark’s call on the ES triggered long and he finally closed at even after an hour of no movement (it eventually would have worked). NASDAQ volume was horrible at only 1.3 billion shares. Three other calls did not trigger.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s long triggered at A at 1586.50, and he closed it at the same price after almost an hour:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, April 29th, 2013
See EURUSD section below for the recap as we continue to hold a trade in the money.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Our call triggered long at A and only went about 40 pips at the high, so not quite to our first target. It used the R2 as support all night and morning, and we’re still holding with a stop under the entry:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, April 26th, 2013
I wanted to talk a bit about the sequester and its impact on the markets from a trading perspective. Before we get into the sequester itself, let’s take a look at volume and discuss some of our thresholds.
First of all, here’s volume from April 2009 to April 2010. Each of these charts is going to show the daily NASDAQ volume, with a 10-day moving average of that volume, and three horizontal lines. One will be drawn at 2 billion shares, which is really when you have a great trading environment. One will be drawn at 1.7 billion shares, which I consider to be the minimum need for a decent day or set of days. And the final one will be drawn at 1.5 billion shares.
So, here’s April 2009 to April 2010:

A couple of notes on that chart above. First of all, every year, volume drops off sharply in the week between Christmas and New Year’s to close out the year (point A), so that dip in the moving average of volume doesn’t concern me. You’ll notice that most of the year, like the 12 years prior to it, volume was above 2 billion shares (the moving average even appears to use that as support). And you’ll notice that the March/April area under point B isn’t exactly a point that volume dips, even though people do have Spring Breaks and such around that time.
Let’s look now at April 2010 to April 2011:

What’s different here? Not a ton. On average, volume was a little less, with the moving average spending more time between 1.7 billion and 2 billion shares, but we still had plenty of days over 2 billion. We had the end of year slip at A that doesn’t matter. Volume was still up in March and April under B. And we can even see that the best part of the year volume-wise was back at C in May and June. Good enough.
April 2011 to April 2012:

More of the same there, really. We’ve spent most of our time between 1.7 and 2 billion shares on average. We had plenty of days over 2 billion. The big volume was the dip in the markets in August, so we really didn’t even see the usual summer slowdown (volume can dip in August). End of the year at A, again, doesn’t matter. Good enough.
Finally, we look at the last 12 months, from April 2012 to April 2013:

Hmmm. This seems different. The whole scale is different on the right because there are many more days down near 1.3 billion, and few above 2 billion. The closest that the moving average came to 2 billion shares was in February. We can again ignore the dip at A for end of year, but look how low things got in August at B. Granted, it’s August, it can dip, but that was bad. So the overall shift here is much lower volume, very few good volume days, and look at the current move. In MARCH, the moving average dipped under 1.5 billion for a bit? This is an odd time of year for that sort of drop. We did rise the last two weeks, but we’ve had earnings season to create a little volume day to day. What happens now that that is over.
The highest point in the moving average of volume in the last year was under point C in February. And, I’ve drawn a vertical line D. What is that? That’s the sequester kicking in.
Charts don’t lie, people do. If you’re going to take the above four charts and try to convince yourself that the sequester isn’t the reason for the current state of volume and action in the markets, there is no need to read further. Facts don’t seem to matter to you.
Now let’s pivot and look at the last year on the S&P 500 index:

I’ve drawn two uptrend lines. We talk all the time about the fact that when a trendline breaks, you want to see it break, retest, and then fail, and that’s your actual break. Until all of that happens, you don’t have a break. So let’s look at the first line, which was the rally from June of last year until October. We created this line off about 5 points, and then we broke it at A, retested it at B, failed, and the rollover from there was the drop, although it didn’t last long. We then, from mid-November, created a new uptrend line off of three or four points. We broke it just over a week ago at D, but we rallied back above it. No failed retest so far. The uptrend continues, sort of. But, as we know, without volume.
Point C on the chart is the end of 2012, and you’ll notice that the first two days of the year, the market leapt higher as the government “solved” the fiscal cliff, which had been a big concern the second half of 2012. This is what had held volume back. There was too much uncertainty about tax rates and spending and more. The market doesn’t like uncertainty. It may not sell-off on it, but it makes it harder for people to commit.
I kept getting asked late in the year why the market wasn’t selling off ahead of the fiscal cliff, and I didn’t really expect it to. Here’s why: the market assumes that no matter how stupid the folks in Washington DC are, they aren’t dumb enough to let us go over the cliff. Will they take care of it sooner rather than later? No, because live in the world of Prisoner’s Dilemma anymore, and he who blinks first has to give a little. We run this country now by government by crisis. Create a crisis, take it to the end, and get the most that you can for your side. It is, honestly, not a way to run a country. Two sides can disagree. You come together in the middle for the good of the country. That’s how it has always been done.
One of the negatives though was that even though they solved the Fiscal Cliff, giving the market some certainty, they didn’t really solve the budget issues for years to come. They pushed off the sequester for a few months to try to get a solution in place.
If you go back to the chart of volume of the last year, I pointed out that the highest point of volume on the chart was in February of this year. So in other words, once the Fiscal Cliff was behind us, volume picked up. The markets also took the events of the Fiscal Cliff and felt secure that the same would happen: at the last minute or just after, Washington would figure out the sequester and not do anything stupid. That’s just how it works.
The problem is, so far, they haven’t figured it out, and volume has dropped off a cliff again because the markets are now uncertain about a lot of things.
I realize some people will say “Well, I don’t mind cuts in Defense, we got bloated there anyway since our Defense Budget is now the size of the next 13 biggest countries in the world (all of whom are our allies).” And others will say “I don’t mind cuts in domestic spending because government is bad and too big.”
Fair enough. But the sequester hits everything equally as a percentage with no regard for what matters. If you really want to balance the budget, isn’t there a process where we figure out what PARTS of defense could be cut and what domestic programs we don’t need and then bridge the gap on revenue but slashing loopholes a bit for junk that only the elite are using? Or, Heaven forbid, redo the tax code in the process to make it simpler to figure out with less loopholes for the top while lowering rates. But, all of that means both sides moving a bit.
So why is the market so uncertain just because of the sequester?
Well, first of all, in bad economic times, austerity only raises unemployment. Just take a look at Europe (26% in Spain!). I’m never clear how people don’t understand that when spending slows down, people are put out of work. The government and the Pentagon in particular went out of their way late last year to slow some non-personnel spending, hoping to be able to live through a few months of the sequester if needed, but you can’t around the fact that as the sequester drags on, it means people out of work. Higher unemployment. Less money to spend. But it is worse than that, because the market doesn’t know what to do here. Friday’s GDP number for Q1 came in under the expected number, clearly indicating that the economy is slowing again because of this, just as things were starting to get better.
But we can point to other ways that this is having a big impact. The Federal government spends a lot of money each year on scientific research. We know that on average, scientific spending gets about a 60 to 1 ROI (Return on Investment). For example, all of the spending done on mapping the human genome got about a 160 to 1 return. So in other words, if you spend $1 billion on that, you get $160 billion back in economic growth in the years after. Obviously, some scientific spending gets you no results, but ON AVERAGE, it’s 60 to 1. Because of the sequester, if it doesn’t end, we will be cutting around $50 billion out of scientific spending before the end of Fiscal 2013. Take that times 60, and you’ve lost $3 trillion in GDP in the years ahead. This is a BIG DEAL.
Right now, the market is still assuming that something will change. We’re all hoping that the solution is long-term, and not just a band-aid that lasts six months or so. The more certainty you give on this, in terms of a path for years ahead, the faster and better the economy will grow, but also the faster the markets will react. People will get back to it. No one wants to be collecting stocks here if the sequester doesn’t end. It WILL lead to a slowdown in the economy, higher unemployment, and make the US GDP growth down the road less competitive. But, the market still assumes that Washington will do what they have been doing, which is at least band-aid it, if not finally fix it, before they have taken the hostage situation too far. And that’s why the market doesn’t know if it should break the uptrend, and that’s why volume is down, which, more than anything, is not what we as traders like, because it makes things behave less technically (have you traded the futures lately?).
I always say that I don’t need or expect 5 great trading days per week with great volume. Two or three is good enough. Measure the volume, and you know which days are light, and you can try less or even not really trade those days. But we’re now living in a new reality. Just as things started to improve after the fiscal cliff ended, they’ve gotten much worse due to the sequester. From an active trader’s perspective, this is the first thing in years that is having a lasting impact on equity market trading.
Tags: education, sequester
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Friday, April 26th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered (PTEN gapped under the short trigger, no play).
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t quite work enough for a first target:

Rich’s GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

FSLR triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Makr’s MCHP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, fslr, gs, stock recap
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Friday, April 26th, 2013
To show you how bad things are in futures right now, we have a perfect setup that combines essentially the Value Area, the opening range, and the gap fill and can’t even cover the 6 ticks to get there on a Friday. Unreal. See ES below. We ended up trying again in the afternoon and failed, then slipped back to the VWAP on 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Nice setup triggered at A at 1580.50, couldn’t even reach the 6 ticks up to the gap fill. Note that the Comber gave a 13 buy signal at the low:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, April 26th, 2013
A loser and a flat trade to close out a flat week. See GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B and did nothing at all, bouncing off of UBreak at C, D, and E, but I finally closed at the entry price at F for end of week:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, April 25th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BRCM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AKAM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His CLF triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, clf, stock recap
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Thursday, April 25th, 2013
A loser on the ES, two small winners on the NQ. See both sections below.
Net ticks: -0.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s short triggered at A at 1577.50 and stopped:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s long triggered at A at 2849.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry. My short triggered at B at 2844.00, and it was having trouble getting through the combination of the UPT, UBreak, and a TDST, so I closed for 4 ticks at 2842.00:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Thursday, April 25th, 2013
A winner in the EURUSD and that’s it. Came back to the starting point again. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, but gave you several places to take that entry through B without stopping, hit first target at C, and closed the rest in the morning under the entry at D:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, April 24th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CTSH triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIIB triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked great:

His ALXN triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His JOY triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s POT triggered long (with market support) and worked a little:

His RGLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His CELG triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

His BRCM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His MCHP triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: biib, celg, rgld, stock recap
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Wednesday, April 24th, 2013
A flat session after a flat opening. The ES stuck in just 7 points of range on 1.65 billion NASDAQ shares, and that was with AAPL trading about 20 million more than usual.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1572.75, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, April 24th, 2013
The EURUSD and GBPUSD spent the sessions in 50 pip ranges, which are useless. One partial swept trigger in EURUSD and that’s it. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
The EURUSD call was long over the UBreak, which is the red line. That swept by 2.3 pips at the highs, which would have put you into part of the trade based on our order staggering system, and that partial stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CREE gapped over, no play.
KERX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

HLIT triggered long and didn’t go enough in either direction to count.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIIB triggered short (without market support) and worked whether you took it on the flash crash or later:

His SANM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, biib, stock recap
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Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013
Interesting use of a “flash crash” after a boring start to the session. See ES and NQ sections below.
Net ticks: +11 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1567.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped on lowered stop at 1564.25 for 11 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 2816.50, also on the “AP Tweet Flash Crash” and hit first target for 6 ticks. Second half stopped over entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, April 23rd, 2013
A winner for the session on the GBPUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, gave you hours until B to enter, hit first target at C, and went lower, but by the time we were up, stop had to be moved over the entry and the second half stopped at D. Note the low was the LBreak at E:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, April 22nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, IPXL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMGN triggered long (without market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIIB triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

TEVA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AAPL triggered long (without market support) and worked:

My AAPL triggered long in the afternoon (with market support) and worked:

His X triggered short (with market support) and worked just enough for a partial:

COST triggered long (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 of them worked, as did a few without market support.
Tags: AAPL, amgn, biib, cost, stock recap
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Monday, April 22nd, 2013
Another awkward session for futures. Our ES call worked, although just enough to hit the first target initially. Then a similar setup on the NQ swept twice before working. See both sections below for a deeper recap.
Net ticks: -9 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at 1550.25 at A and hit first target for 6 ticks. It then stopped the second half over the entry before proceeding to fill the gap and cross the Value Area:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 2778.00 and stopped initially. Triggered again 5 minutes later and stopped again. Triggered again and hit first target for 6 ticks, then stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Monday, April 22nd, 2013
A disappointingly narrow 50 pips of range on the GBPUSD for the main session led to not much for us to start the week. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. 50 pip range for the session:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Saturday, April 20th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ISIS triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

NKTR triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

NTAP triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

ATVI triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VMW triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (without market support) and worked:

So despite several triggers, including a top pick that worked and two nice calls from Rich, nothing triggered with market support. That’s a first, but probably not surprising that it happened on options expiration Friday.
Tags: AAPL, stock recap, vmw
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Saturday, April 20th, 2013
A winner to start and then a double stop out on the ER (which worked after that). See both sections below.
Net ticks: -13.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1538.00, hit first target for six ticks, but couldn’t even reach down to fill the gap and stopped second half over the entry:

ER:
Triggered long at A at 903.30 and stopped for 8 ticks. Put it back in and it triggered ten minutes later again and stopped. Worked after that:

Tags: er, es, futures recap
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Saturday, April 20th, 2013
A small winner to close out the week in the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. There really isn’t much to see there.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, just missed stopping out, hit first target at B, and closed final piece under the entry at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, April 18th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BRCM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

OVTI triggered short (with market support) and didn’t quite work initially, worked on the second pass:

AKAM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

SWKS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

MCHP triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BTU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, worked great on the second pass:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

Rich’s ALXN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His SNDK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His SLW triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His UNP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

RIG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His DUST triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His CELG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

In total, that’s 18 trades triggering with market support, 10 of them worked (some really well), 8 did not.
Tags: AAPL, GOOG, stock recap
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Thursday, April 18th, 2013
What is with the colors? It will all make sense eventually. For now, just understand that at Tradesight moving forward, futures charts will have a blue right and bottom scale background (Forex will be green and stocks will be black).
A nice winner early in the ES and then a loser in the NQ that just missed the first target by a half tick (0.25). See both sections below.
Net ticks: -1 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at 1538.75 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final piece at the same 6 tick gain on a lowered stop:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short under LPT in the afternoon at A at 2731.00. First target was 2728.00, and it hit 2728.25 before reversing back to the stop inside of a minute:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Thursday, April 18th, 2013
What in the world is with the colors on the charts? There is a method to the madness, believe it or not. Let’s just focus for this report on the fact that FOREX charts at Tradesight from now on should have the green right and lower scale background. Futures will be blue and stocks will be black.
A slow session with the EURUSD in a 60 pip range. One trigger and I finally gave up and closed it out for going nowhere. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A in the morning finally (no triggers overnight in a horrible range) and never did anything, so I closed it out at the end of the chart at B, which wasn’t even our 25 pip stop. Note how it had come up earlier than that to hit the Pivot (our entry) and stalled on a 9-bar setup:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, April 17th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AREX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

XXIA triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked huge:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His SNDK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, nflx, sndk, stock recap
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Wednesday, April 17th, 2013
A winner on the ER and a loser on the ES created a wash. See both below. Market volume picked up, but the afternoon action was dead flat, and that’s when the ES triggered.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Afternoon breakout triggered long at A at 1549.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

ER:
Triggered short under LPT at 909.40 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks and stopped second half 6 ticks in the money. After a bounce, the trade really worked, giving the move that I had originally hoped for:

Tags: er, es, futures recap
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Wednesday, April 17th, 2013
One loser and a better winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, barely stopped at B. Triggered short again at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over S1:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, April 16th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AKRX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

ROVI gapped over, no play.
IDXX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIIB triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His RIG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His SLB triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: GOOG, rig, slb, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Tuesday, April 16th, 2013
Another light volume day in the markets with 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares traded. We had an initial stop out (swept the entry) before two winners. See ES below.
Net ticks: +4 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
The short triggered at A at 1556.50 and stopped, then triggered again at B, hit the first target, stalled at the Pivot, and stopped over the entry for the second half. The long triggered at 1563.00 at C, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I raised the stop a few times and finally stopped under the R1 level at D for 11 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, April 16th, 2013
A perfect setup led to a nice move, but after we got stopped out. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, stopped out unfortunately at B. If you were awake, you go again at C and it works fine. Sometimes, it happens:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, April 15th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MNST triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

VRTX gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and worked:

CELG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: amgn, cat, celg, ebay, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, April 15th, 2013
Mark’s NQ trade triggered and stopped. The movement for the session occurred over lunch after a slow start. The other call didn’t trigger. NASDAQ volume was weak early but soared in the last hour to hit 1.7 billion shares.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 2842.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. He did not re-enter:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, April 15th, 2013
A loser on the AUDUSD and a winner on the EURUSD. See those sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, gave you a chance to take it at B if you missed it (remember, these are EST charts now, so that’s the start of the European session), hit first target nicely at C (note the Comber 5 minute buy signal) and lowered stop in the morning (after it had already been back above the Pivot and come back down) and probably stopped you at D just over the entry:

AUDUSD:
A nice Value Area setup that triggered early (half size) at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Tags: audusd, eurusd, forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, April 12th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SBUX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s NFLX triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His CELG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, sbux, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, April 12th, 2013
A loser on the ES and a winner on the NQ as volume dropped off sharply again to only 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares (a Friday, plus everyone watching the Masters).
Net ticks: +2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at 1581.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks. He did not re-enter:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at 2840.50 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped the second half 12 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Friday, April 12th, 2013
A winner, but one that didn’t even make it to the full first target. See GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
There are no patterns for breakout nor any Seeker/Comber signals looming on the daily charts. The US Dollar Index completed 9 bars down for a setup on Thursday.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, didn’t get to first target, never stopped overnight, and I finally closed at B in the money a little for end of week:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, April 11th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SHLD triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

SODA triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked huge:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His RGLD triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His GLD triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered short (without market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s CELG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s BIIB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: stock recap
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Thursday, April 11th, 2013
Nothing triggered as the market picked up volume but went flat. The NQs never even touched a level beyond VAH. See the sections below for the recap.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Thursday, April 11th, 2013
Two triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped overnight. Triggered long again in the morning at B, never hit first target, finally closed it out for end of session at C just around the entry:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, April 10th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BLMN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

INTC triggered long (with market support) and worked:

CALL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

ONNN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s BBY triggered short (without market support) and worked:

Mark’s AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s RGLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 10 trades triggering with market support, all 10 of them worked.
Tags: amgn, blmn, gild, intc, stock recap
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Wednesday, April 10th, 2013
Volume picked up a bit, and the market gapped up and kept going early, then flattened out the rest of the session. See the ES below. NASDAQ volume did get to almost 1.7 billion shares, a big improvement over Monday and Tuesday.
Net ticks: -8 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
We got a Comber 13 sell signal on the ES and used it for a short entry at A at 1578.25, which stopped for 8 ticks. Never violated the risk line, but that was too much risk to show on a 15-minute timeframe. Meanwhile, we then got a 13 sell signal on the 5-minute chart below, which again was the high of the session (second day in a row), but we didn’t roll over much:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, April 10th, 2013
Guess we had our triggers right. See EURUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Very interesting. We had a long over the UBreak/R1 level, which hit exactly but never triggered at A. We had a short under LBreak, which almost hit exactly overnight at B, then finally triggered at C. I closed it at the end of the chart as it hadn’t gone anywhere and the session was over (breakeven). Also, the US Dollar Index 5-minute chart had a Comber 13 sell signal:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, April 9th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, KERX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s NEM triggered long (without market support) and worked:

His RGLD triggered long (without market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His LNKD triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (without market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AMGN triggered short (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: GOOG, kerx, nflx, stock recap
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Tuesday, April 9th, 2013
All charts for all asset classes in our reports have been shifted to eSignal 11 screenshots effective today. There is a slightly different (but cleaner) look to these charts. They also show as EST.
Not much market volume again. Took an ES short on a Comber sell signal that didn’t work, but we will discuss below. Volume was horrible again.
Net ticks: ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Note that when we make calls in the Messenger, we try to keep them to calls based on the Levels with 6 ticks of risk (plus one for the spread). We don’t typically make calls based on the Comber and Seeker signals because they often require a bit more finesse when it comes to the entry point (not usually a “fixed” number) and a stop (should go over the “risk” level). In this case, since volume was so bad and there wasn’t anything else to call, I made a call looking to roll over after the Comber 13 sell signal. It was a short at 1565.50. That triggered at A and stopped out for the 7 ticks, but as you can see on the chart, it used the risk line perfectly and never stopped out if you used that, which is really the stop you should use on any Comber/Seeker call:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, April 9th, 2013
We’re changing the formats of the charts for the reports officially. Starting today, all screenshots will be taken with eSignal 11, which has a slightly different look/feel to it. In addition, I’ve shifted my charts to EST for consistency in all asset classes.
We closed out the second half of a winner on the GBPUSD for the session, and then had an early trigger loser and a later trigger winner on the EURUSD. See those sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long very early (half size) at A and didn’t quite make it to the first target. Eventually stopped and was back under the trigger well ahead of the European session. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and stopped final piece under the entry at D:

GBPUSD:
The second half of the short from the prior session stopped in the money at A:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, April 8th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GPOR triggered long (without market support) and worked:

SNTA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

QLGC triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work initially, worked a little later:

His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: gpor, nflx, stock recap
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Monday, April 8th, 2013
One trigger on the ES. The other calls didn’t trigger. See that section below. Market volume dropped to its lowest yet, barely clearing 1 billion NASDAQ shares in the last 40 minutes.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1544.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, April 8th, 2013
A loser and a retrigger that worked and is still going. See the GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short overnight at A and barely stopped out at B. Triggered again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over LPT:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, April 5th, 2013
Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185
It isn’t quite as good as last month, but it fits our system and shows what works in a market that is still a little light in the action but moving enough that we can get things done. We had a nice range of trades, including several (not just one or two that made the whole month) that carried over session to session. We prefer to see a win ratio in the 50-60% range and we came in right down the middle of that. I would say two extra trades working beyond the first day and we’d be thrilled. Still, it is two months of back to back decent gains, which represents a huge shift over the slowness of last year at the end.
In terms of ranges, there was no improvement on the 6 month daily averages from February to March, but it didn’t get worse either. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding right around 100 pips per day on average, which is a nice bump from the 70 or so pips we were seeing late last year. No complaints here about Forex right now.
Tags: forex results, fx
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Friday, April 5th, 2013
Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +24 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -39 ticks
After bouncing back in late January and all of February to nice gains, the stock market volume dried up considerably in March, mostly due to the sequester issue in Washington. Of the three major asset classes (Stocks, Futures, and Forex), futures trading saw what I consider to be the biggest slowdown with the drop in market volume. The ranges were poor 75% of the month and most trades that did work eventually triggered and stopped at least once. We’ve been trading a lot of half size sessions and there were even several days without triggers. It’s simply a slow time for futures, and we aren’t going to push anything, keeping the official calls to about 2 each day (one in either direction). Until volume picks back up, I don’t expect things to get much, but we will continue to stick to tight stops.
In addition, we went almost a full month without an intraday Seeker or Comber 13 buy or sell signal on the ES 5-minute chart. That is absolutely unheard of and speaks volume about the ranges. When we did get one late in the month, it was the low of the session.
Tags: futures, futures results
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Friday, April 5th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, with the big gap down, nothing should have been taken. TIVO triggered in the opening 5 minutes without market support.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s LNKD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t do enough to count:

NFLX triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, lnkd, stock recap
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Friday, April 5th, 2013
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at 1539.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at the same price at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry just barely over lunch while retesting the VWAP:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, April 5th, 2013
More winners on the GBPUSD to close out the week, including a carryover from the prior session. We also had a stop out on the EURUSD. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Came into the session long from the prior day wiht a stop under 1.5200, which didn’t stop. The new long triggered at A, hit first target at B, and closed all of our GBPUSD at C for end of week, including a 150-pip winner on the final exit from the day before:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, April 4th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ENDP triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GOOG triggered short (without market support) and worked for a couple of points:

His MON triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His LULU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 4 did not. Our nice run of winners comes to a halt with volume hitting the second lowest of the year.
Tags: lulu, stock recap
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Thursday, April 4th, 2013
One call that worked, one that didn’t trigger. See ES below. The volume dropped off sharply in the markets again, back down to 1.35 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1555.25, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry. Note that the UPT/Value Area High was the high at B and the low was the LBreak to the tick:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, April 4th, 2013
Two winners for the session. See the GBPUSD below. Still holding half of the long position.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, kept going overnight. Note that the low was a 13 Comber buy signal at the S2 level at C. New call triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under R2. Note that right at the end of the chart, we got a Comber 13 sell signal, so that’s probably the high of the session:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MAKO triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

QLGC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

KLIC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FFIV triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a quick partial:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:

His TSLA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His VECO triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His BIIB triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work initially, worked later:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

CELG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s LUV triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His RGLD triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 10 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AMZN, fas, nflx, stock recap, tsla
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Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013
Finally a setup and trigger, worked to first target and the second half stopped over the entry before a big move. See ER section below. There was also a nice setup on the NQ over lunch for the gap fill.
Net ticks: +3.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Note the nice inverted cup and handle that lined up against the LPT over lunch and then triggered and ran to the gap fill from yesterday:

ER:
Triggered short at A at 929.50, hit first target for 8 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: er, futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013
Another interesting session with narrow range. The EURUSD bounced off our trigger and the GBPUSD triggered (just barely) and didn’t go anywhere. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Our short was under S1, but it didn’t get the 2-pip spread under that level to trigger:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, didn’t stop or go anywhere, finally closed just under the entry at B for end of session:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CHKP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His AIG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work (market rolled shortly after the trigger):

His ALXN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His TIF triggered long (with market support) and worked:

FSLR triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, worked later with market support:

Rich’s VECO triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not. We are also 17 out of the last 18 for triggers with market support.
Tags: AAPL, chkp, stock recap, tif
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Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013
The ES only hit one main level today early and spent several hours in a 3 point range before finally heading back into the gap. Volume was light again in the market at 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares, and although we don’t like to do this, no calls.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013
Well, sometimes nothing happens. The Levels were spaced better on the EURUSD than the GBPUSD, so I made the calls there, but the EURUSD didn’t do anything for the session and nothing triggered.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:

GBPUSD:

Tags: forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, April 1st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FB triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

His DECK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked. We are now 13 for 13 in our last 3 days of trades that triggered with market support.
Tags: AMZN, deck, nflx, stock recap
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Monday, April 1st, 2013
No calls as the rest of the world was on Holiday and volume was therefore extremely light at only 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares. We resume Tuesday.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, April 1st, 2013
After looking at the opening few hours of play, it was clear that with banks closed around the world (except in the US since we did it Friday), the action was going to be limited, so I didn’t make any calls. GBPUSD and EURUSD in about a 50 pip range overnight, so that was a good thing. There was a nice breakout on EURUSD over UBreak in the US session.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Note the breakout over UBreak in the morning:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Saturday, March 30th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ILMN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

ONXX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SINA triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His CELG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked. (10 for 10 in the last two days of light volume with market support).
Tags: celg, onxx, stock recap
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Saturday, March 30th, 2013
One winner on another 1.4 billion share NASDAQ session to close out the week, month, and quarter. Have a good long weekend and then we’re back to work.
Net ticks: +3 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1559.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half at the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Saturday, March 30th, 2013
A loser in the EURUSD to close out the week, but check the review of it below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped for 25 pips. Note that the market exactly covered the Value Area from B to C overnight. Also, if you had been awake to re-enter at D, it worked to the first target at E:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, March 28th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:

CTRP triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His GOOG triggered short late in the day (without market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Mark’s BIIB triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His ASML triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, all 7 of them worked.
Tags: AMZN, bidu, cost, gdx, stock recap
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Thursday, March 28th, 2013
We got the day that we expected in terms of volume. The market gapped down and took all day to get back to even, with the S&P closing down less than a point, and NASDAQ hitting only 1.3 billion. A winner and a loser on the ES, but I was low size due to the situation (and will be tomorrow).
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
The nice setup into the Value Area over the LPT triggered long at A, but swept initially, then went again at B, hit first target for six ticks, inched higher to exactly the Value Area High at C, and then stopped the second half under the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, March 28th, 2013
A clean trigger that used the LBreak on a retest perfectly so that we didn’t get stopped on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, retested the LBreak exactly at B (stop was above it), and hit first target at C. Closed final piece in the money at D:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, March 26th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GRPN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

DISH triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, worked later with market support:

Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

His FB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His STX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

His MA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: gs, stock recap, stx
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Tuesday, March 26th, 2013
A trigger on news on the ES (see below), and then a later better trigger that didn’t work. Market volume, after improving yesterday, dropped quite a bit Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well for Wednesday and Thursday as we wind up the quarter and head into the long weekend.
Net ticks: -14 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at 1555.25, although the first trigger was on news (Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales) at A at 10:00 am EST. Generally don’t want to enter a trade on news, but the call was made 4 minutes before, so we will count it. Stopped, then triggered again 10 minutes later and stopped again. Ended up in a useless range with no volume:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, March 26th, 2013
From a day with two winners and a carryover to a day with no triggers at all. See EURUSD for the final exit of the prior day’s trade about 55 pips in the money. About 50 pips of range today on the EURUSD.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Our short from the prior session’s Pivot stopped out just barely in the morning over the VAL here for about 55 pips, the ONLY Level that the EURUSD even touched in a very narrow day. Strange to see:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, March 25th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SPLK triggered long (with market support) and worked:

NKTR triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

HAIN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

MDVN triggered short (with market support, but unfortunately right in the middle of lunch) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s FIVE triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work initially, worked later:

His VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 4 did not. Strange win ratio as I had a really nice day.
Tags: nflx, splk, stock recap, vmw
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Monday, March 25th, 2013
Mark had a nice winner on the ES for the session as we finally got some better range. Volume was 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares, which is also a slight improvement from last week.
Net ticks: +8.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1553.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop several times and stopped finally at 1551 at A:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, March 25th, 2013
A nice session to start the week with two winners on the EURUSD (and some good range). Still holding the second half of the short. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long early (half size) at A and hit first target at B, second half stopped. Triggered short a much better setup at a better time at C, hit first target at D, lowered stop several times and holding the rest with a stop over the black line at 1.2900:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Sunday, March 24th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, DLTR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

FNSR triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, COST triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

Rich’s SNDK triggered short (with market support) and worked eventually:

His SPY triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

His PCYC triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His FFIV triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work initially, but worked after (we don’t count it anyway):

AAPL triggered long (with market support, and the cleanest pattern of the day) and worked great:

Rich’s MNST triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His BBRY triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, cost, dltr, stock recap
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Friday, March 22nd, 2013
Another flat session as expected. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares. We had a winner in the ER, see below.
Net ticks: +3.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ER:
Triggered short at A at 943.00, hit first target for 8 ticks, stopped second half over the entry. Didn’t even fill the gap but used the Pivot as the low:

Tags: er, futures recap
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Friday, March 22nd, 2013
A winner to close out the week. See the EURUSD section below.
We have a new format here to the report. I got rid of the trend boxes as they don’t apply to what we do anymore. I’m separating this recap section from the section below, which will give you details of the next session calls and when they will be posted.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and closed second half at C for about 50 pips for end of week:

Tags: eursd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, March 22nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SPRD gapped over, no play.
QCOR triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

FOSL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

NTAP triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His DE triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial but nothing else:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not, but none of it was exciting.
Tags: stock recap
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Friday, March 22nd, 2013
The market continues to struggle in narrow range on little volume as things seems to take twice as long to happen. The ES gapped down, made an attempt to fill the gap, then dropped down to fill the gap from yesterday, then came back up to the current gap to the tick. See that section below.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at 1546.50 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and that was it. Almost took the short under the S2, but that also only went 6 ticks (to fill the gap from yesterday) before we reversed back up to fill the new gap:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, March 22nd, 2013
Another day of narrow ranges and the market doing very little. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at B and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, March 20th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered…again.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CLF triggered long (without market support) and worked:

His AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

Rich’s BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: amgn, AMZN, stock recap
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Wednesday, March 20th, 2013
A loser and a winner on the flattest day we’ve seen yet. Holy smokes was that brutal until a bit after the Fed announcement. At one point, I couldn’t even see the VWAP or market directional lines on my charts because it was so flat!
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1550.50 for what should have been an easy slip toward the gap fill and stopped after a long 30 minutes of nothing. Mark’s call triggered long at B at 1553.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, then stopped second half under the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, March 20th, 2013
Make sure you look at the GBPUSD for what a wild and crazy ride Forex can be (and dangerous). Along those lines, our EURUSD trade triggered and stopped just barely before working perfectly. Sometimes it happens. See both sections below.
There was no real reaction to the Fed announcement today.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We were half size ahead of the Fed announcement as little is expected on those nights. Our long triggered at A, but stopped just barely at B (bouncing off the VWAP) before working perfectly to our first target at C. Oh well, sometimes it happens:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, March 19th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, LULU gapped under the trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

Rich’s MCK triggered short (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

NTAP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s POT triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: mck, pot, stock recap, vxx
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Tuesday, March 19th, 2013
Had a nice setup that set itself three times, but never triggered. The market volume was the lightest we have seen yet after an hour (barely over 300 million NASDAQ shares), so we made no additional calls, although the market did break lower on news out of Europe after that.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Tuesday, March 19th, 2013
Technically no triggers for the session, or you might have taken one leg of the GBPUSD long. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Under our order staggering rules, if you used the bid, then no trigger at A, but if you used the ask, you might have been put into one out of three legs of the trade, which didn’t work. Overall, our short entry was the low and our long entry was the high as the market did nothing again:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, March 18th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered. FFIV gapped under the short trigger.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GLD triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His AXP triggered long (with market support) and worked:

COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:

BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, axp, bidu, cost, GOOG, stock recap
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Monday, March 18th, 2013
We had a big gap down and no volume (1.4 billion NASDAQ shares total). The market recovered from the start. Called one ES trade that stopped, but didn’t re-enter due to market volume (the re-trigger worked). See ES below. We continue to hold our futures trading to limit calls as the market is just not showing the volume.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1546.00 and stopped:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, March 18th, 2013
Despite the craziness in the equity markets based on news out of Europe, there wasn’t as much action in Forex again. The EURUSD gapped out of the gate, one of the bigger gaps we have seen, and it eventually headed back toward Friday’s close, although didn’t get there. Meanwhile, the GBPUSD was stuck in a narrow 70 pip range. See both sections below.
The action was so limited that we didn’t even get a single Seeker or Comber signal on the EURUSD or the GBPUSD.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
I was excited about the GBPUSD early as it set the UBreak exactly at A right after the open. However, it ended up triggering long at B and stopping for 25 pips. The range was only 70 pips:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BIDU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked. Even though it was in the opening 5 minutes, you should have taken this one as we have been waiting for it for days:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GMCR triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His JPM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 2 did not, but the big winner was BIDU.
Tags: bidu, stock recap
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
I was on the road for the session. Mark had one call, see ES below. There was a nice NQ setup too.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1552.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. He called off the retrigger, which worked nicely, as gaps tend to fill more frequently on Fridays. The gap filled also, and note that the Value Area High was the high of the session:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
We were only looking to go half size in primetime ahead of the CPI (and triple expiration), so there were two triggers, one early for quarter size and one for half size, both on the GBPUSD. See that section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of the ten pairs that we cover with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into next week (no signals or chart patterns at ALL), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long very early (quarter size) at A and stopped. Note the Comber buy signal at the low after that, then retriggered at B, hit first target at C. Adjusted the stop in the morning under 1.5100, but should have closed at D for end of week when Europe shut down:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
We had a LOT of calls, and not many triggered in a slow session.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VLO triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s AKAM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His ONXX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial (barely):

His WFM triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: stock recap, wfm
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
A trigger on the ES and a few on the NQ, one of which unfortunately stopped before it worked again. Overall, another narrow session, not even half of average daily range, and we really didn’t see an options unraveling move for triple expiration, which is unusual but par for the last two weeks. Volume was only 1.45 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -6 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1553.00, missed the first target by a tick and stopped for 6 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark had a call and I had a call, which even confused me as I thought I had typo’d Mark’s call. So, since they were both their own calls, here we go.
Mark’s triggered short at 2801.50 at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the remaining at 2799.50. Mine was under the opening bar low and triggered short at C at 2800.50, hit first target for six ticks, and stopped the second half at 2799.50:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Friday, March 15th, 2013
One trade that came within 3 pips of the first target and a winner on the EURUSD. See that section below. Also see the GBPUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, came within 3 pips of the first target (LBreak) at B, which should have gotten you out of at least a piece of the trade under our order staggering rules. Lowered the stop in the morning and stopped at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding with a stop under the black line at 1.3000:

GBPUSD:
We talked last night in the Lab about taking a scalp on the GBPUSD over the Pivot, and you have to love how it triggered and went EXACTLY to the UBreak/VAH. Quite remarkable:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, March 13th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
We had a LOT of calls, and not many triggered in a slow session.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VLO triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s AKAM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His ONXX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial (barely):

His WFM triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: stock recap, wfm
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Wednesday, March 13th, 2013
A nice setup early on the ES that didn’t trigger, and another nice setup out of a cup and handle in the afternoon that didn’t trigger, so no triggers on the day. We had the lightest volume of the week at only 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Wednesday, March 13th, 2013
A loser and a winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A overnight and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, closed second half at D on a stop:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, March 12th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ZIOP triggered long (without market support) and worked:

MSCC triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

CPHD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work. It triggered later and worked:

MNST triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, worked later with market support:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work, worked later:

His TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:

His GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

We called the GOOG short again and it triggered (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work, worked later:

BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, worked later with market support:

Rich’s GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

Rich’s second VXX call triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His NTAP triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 9 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 5 did not.
Tags: gdx, stock recap, tlt, ziop
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Tuesday, March 12th, 2013
A better day, but one false start again and an extremely flat opening hour. The ES filled the gap and then rolled hard. See that section below for the recap of the trades. Volume was 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares again.
Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Swept the trigger short at A at 1547.25, and I said to take a retrigger. Triggered long at B at 1549.75 and filled the gap, closed it for four ticks winner when the market seemed to be stalling at the gap fill after some time. Triggered short again at C (same short trigger), hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped in the money at 1545.00 at D:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, March 12th, 2013
A winner on the EURUSD and some better action as we put the time change sync behind us. See EURUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, crossed the Value Area perfectly to B, second half stopped. Note the high is R1 at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, March 11th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, VECO triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial (also had a Comber sell signal at the high):

ONXX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FIRE triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:

His DRN triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked, but a very thin ETF:

Mark’s C triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Mark’s BIIB triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s CLF triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short late in the day (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, all 7 of them worked.
Tags: AAPL, c, onxx, stock recap, vxx
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Monday, March 11th, 2013
Another day of light volume, bad range, and frankly just narrow bars in the futures. One call on the ES stopped and we didn’t do any more. It did set the UPT and then break it and work, but action was just too tame.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1542.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, March 11th, 2013
As I mentioned, the first day or two after the time change can be fairly flat as the volume of the Forex pairs changes slightly since the hours aren’t synced the same. This led to 40 pips of range in the EURUSD for the session. Our GBPUSD trade triggered, see below. Hopefully, we shake this off and get back to ranges immediately. Note that my charts are now on Pacific Time.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We had a long over the Pivot, but it triggered too late in the session (just as I was taking screenshots):

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, retested the trigger perfectly at B, and then didn’t quite get to the first target. The trade took hours to play out, so in the morning, I lowered the stop just over VAL for little risk and stopped at C:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, March 8th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CROX gapped over the trigger, no play.
SHLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (without market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 worked.
Tags: AMZN, GOOG, shld, stock recap
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Friday, March 8th, 2013
The Levels were very tightly spaced because of how flat Thursday was. We gapped up early and filled the gap quickly without setting any of the Levels, and you knew it wasn’t going to turn into much else after that. I posted one trade because the ES set the R2, but listed it as half size because I wasn’t expecting much. See that section below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1543.00 and stopped:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, March 8th, 2013
Closed out the winner from the prior session on the EURUSD, and then a new winner and loser to wrap up the week.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing new to see for setups), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, lowered stop and exited for end of week at D at 1.2980:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, March 7th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ADSK triggered long (with market support) and didn’t go a dime in either direction, doesn’t count.
CRZO triggered long (with market support) and worked:

DISH triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Another EBAY call (really an early entry to the main call) triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GILD triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His AMGN triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His SHLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 9 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: crzo, ebay, fslr, shld, stock recap
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Thursday, March 7th, 2013
We always come into the quarterly contract roll date with little expectations. However, we did have enough of a gap and an early setup to give one trade a try. In the end, the market did what it usually does on options contract roll day…nothing at all. Market volume was a horrible 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares to go with it.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
The opening bar set the UPT from above, so we took the short at A at 1541.75 breaking under that for the gap, but nothing happened. No re-entry as the market was clearly dead:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, March 7th, 2013
We closed out the final piece of the prior day’s EURUSD trade in the money and then had another nice winner. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Stopped the final piece of the short from Wednesday at A about 20 pips in the money. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and raised the stop twice and currently holding with a stop under 1.3100:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, March 6th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PMTC triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

SPRD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

PAYX gapped over, no play.
JBLU triggered long (without market support) and didn’t get a dime in either direction, so doesn’t count:

DMND triggered long (without market support just barely) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SNDK triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s VXX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 3 did not, 1 didn’t do anything. No surprise on a day where the market was stuck.
Tags: AMZN, dmnd, stock recap
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Wednesday, March 6th, 2013
Well, another joke of a session with only 6 points of range on the ES on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares. Several triggers on the ES and YM, but both had a stop out before they ended up working. Wasn’t much to bother with after that as we spent the rest of the session near the VWAP. The ES gap did NOT fill (by a tick, of course).
Net ticks: -12 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1542.00, came within a tick of the first target but then reversed and stopped for 7 ticks (the move set the VAH). Second was the Value Area Plays, triggered short at B at 1540.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, I was late adjusting the stop (should have been over entry), so stop went over 1541.00:

YM:
Mark’s call was a nice Value Area setup after the YM bounced off of it early in the session. Triggered short (hit the entry) at A and stopped for 11 ticks. Re-triggered at B and hit first target for 10 ticks, but again, reversed right back up and stopped over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, ym
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Wednesday, March 6th, 2013
Nothing overnight, but a clean trigger in the morning on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B (came within 4 pips, but we got a Comber buy signal, so I posted to make sure everyone took the partial there), and holding second half with a stop over S1:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, March 5th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, INCY triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

CTSH triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s QCOM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s LRCX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s SNDK triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His CLF triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His XLNX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: clf, ctsh, lrcx, stock recap
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Tuesday, March 5th, 2013
Nice setup on the ES stopped once, then triggered on news, which is never what we want to see. It was a lazy day overall, although volume hit 1.7 billion on the NASDAQ. See ES below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1536.50 after setting the R2 level, but stopped exactly to the tick for 7 ticks loss. I stated it was valid again, but it triggered in the next bar on the better than expected ISM data and faded back. When it hadn’t done anything for ten minutes, I closed it at the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, March 5th, 2013
Our GBPUSD trigger from late yesterday hit the first target after the report was posted and was closed in today’s session about 60 pips in the money. EURUSD triggered and stopped. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:
After hitting the first target yesterday, we adjusted the stop twice including once Tuesday morning under 1.5137, and that stopped in the money by almost 60 pips at A:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, March 4th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ISIS triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CELG triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

FSLR triggered short twice (both without market support), didn’t work the first time, worked the second):

A second trigger on FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work, worked great later:

Mark’s GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: fas, gs, isis, stock recap
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Monday, March 4th, 2013
A trade that we closed at the entry due to lack of market interest and volume, and that was it. See the ES section below.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A, but closed at B after 45 minutes of the market doing nothing over lunch on no volume. There was just no reason to trade or stick with it. The better entry would have been the long over UBreak at C, but since volume was so poor, we didn’t call it:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, March 4th, 2013
A loser and a trade still going on the GBPUSD to start the week. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B pretty late in the session, we’ve moved a stop under the Pivot and holding to see what happens:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, March 1st, 2013
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 42.8%
Net ticks: -59.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +24 ticks
This was a much better month than the last one. We still saw three or four trades that stopped out the first time and then worked the second, which impacts the results. At the same time, ranges were better and volume stayed up most of the month. Our win ratio was high. Again, most of the sample calls that we put up for these results were in the ES, although a few were in the NQ and ER. Ranges have expanded on the contracts, although the NASDAQ market remains flatlined where it started the year as the battle of “money out of AAPL” and “money into GOOG” continues to hold the index in place. There were also several days where no calls triggered in the middle of the month around options expiration and the President’s Day holiday. Without that, we might have had a few more winners to add to the pot. Overall, though, no complaints.
We move forward to March.
Tags: futures, futures results
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Friday, March 1st, 2013
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325
Any way you look at it, this was a great month. If you had four of these a year, you’d be set. The win ratio was high, and even the max losing streak of 2 in a row was something we hadn’t seen for a while. And, it didn’t just come down to one or two plays. We had several trades that finally carried over between days and went for bigger gains, which makes sense when you look at the US Dollar Index and the movement that it finally saw. This is what Forex trading should be like.
In general, ranges have expanded, and while I wouldn’t say that we are back to the GBPUSD seeing 150 pips and EURUSD seeing 130 pips that we expect on average over time, it’s still much better than the EURUSD getting 75 pips or so every night. There really haven’t been too many nights outside of Holidays where ranges were that horrible. Let us hope that this continues into March.
Tags: eurusd, forex results, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, March 1st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PLCM triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s DECK triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Mark’s GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s CELG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, and all 4 of them worked.
Tags: AAPL, celg, gild, GOOG, stock recap
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Friday, March 1st, 2013
Nice winner to start the month in the ES. See that section below.
Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1503.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop a few times and stopped final at 1508.25 for 19 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, March 1st, 2013
Nice session to close out the week and month. Our EURUSD short from the prior week stopped in the money. A new call on the EURUSD stopped, but the GBPUSD worked big if you got filled. See both sections below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then we will glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Our short from the prior session stopped over the Pivot at A, and the new call triggered long at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece over S3 in the morning at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, February 28th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, JIVE triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark’s VRTX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not, and 1 was closed even.
Tags: cost, stock recap, vrtx
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Thursday, February 28th, 2013
A day where Rich and I were plagued with Internet issues and volume was back up to 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares, but the market was very flat all morning, then drifted higher over lunch, then came back to the VWAP. The biggest bars of the day were the last two, where we sold off.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1520.00 and stopped (note that it triggered right on a Comber 13 sell). It based right under the UBreak again during lunch and we discussed taking it again, which worked, but my Internet was down:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, February 28th, 2013
A loser and a winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below. One last night of trades for February.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A overnight and stopped. Triggered short at B in the morning, hit first target at C, and still holding with a stop over LPT:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, February 27th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, FIVE triggered long (with market support) and worked:

LPSN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Mark’s ALTR triggered long (with market support) and he closed at even when it didn’t run with the market:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and did not work initially (which is what we count officially) but worked great on the retrigger a few minutes later:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 didn’t.
Tags: GOOG, stock recap, vxx
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Wednesday, February 27th, 2013
A trade that stopped out once and then worked a little the second time (and much better later) on the NQ. See that section below. Volume was crazy low at only 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long at A at 2717.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. Took the trade again 10 minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, February 27th, 2013
A winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B (Comber 13 sell signal right there) and closed out the final piece at the entry under letter C on the chart in the morning:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, February 26th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, COST triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work (worked later):

SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

JDSU triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work, worked a few minutes later:

FB triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 4 did not.
Tags: AAPL, cost, sina, stock recap
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Tuesday, February 26th, 2013
Our Levels were spaced pretty wide because of the big range on Monday, so it took a while to get any setups, and we were heading into lunch when it did trigger. I went half size due to time of day, but we count the results equally here. See ES below. NASDAQ volume was only 1.7 billion shares.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at 1484.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, February 26th, 2013
Another sideways night that didn’t produce anything. Three triggers, see EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short again in the morning at B, eventually closed around the entry at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, February 25th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, APOL triggered short (just barely without market support) and worked:

ABMD triggered long (with market support) and worked eventually, but market direction turned completely against the trade:

FTNT gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s TQQQ triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

My NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His BTU triggered short (just barely without market support) and worked:

His CF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

BIDU triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 4 did not.
Tags: btu, nflx, stock recap
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Monday, February 25th, 2013
Couple of winning trades on the ES that were called officially. See that section below. Also, note the Value Area play on the NQ.
Net ticks: +11 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
My call triggered long at 1523.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry. Mark’s short triggered at B at 1518.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop twice and stopped at 1515.75 at C. There was also a nice Value Area setup here that worked that we discussed in the Trading Lab as it happened:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, February 25th, 2013
A winner and a loser for the session. See GBPUSD below. Gaps remain on several pairs from the open on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped second half over S1 entry:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, February 22nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, FSLR triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and we ended up closing it out at even when market direction flipped:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, and 1 was flat due to a market directional shift.
Tags: AMZN, bidu, stock recap
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Friday, February 22nd, 2013
A winner and a loser as the market traded very light volume and drifted most of the session again. See ES and NQ below.
Net ticks: -1 tick.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1503.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My call triggered short at A at 2724 and hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop twice and stopped at the same number 6 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Friday, February 22nd, 2013
One trade if you were able to get any on a news spike. See GBPUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Been a while since we’ve seen a spike like this on news that perhaps made it so that you didn’t get any or all of the pieces of your trade executed, depending on where your orders and limits were at. In terms of the raw trade, triggered long at A, hit first target at B (in the same 5 minute bar) and stop was moved under the entry. Also went again in the morning from C to D:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, February 21st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MPEL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, COST triggered short (with market support) and we closed it out around the entry after the market was flat for almost an hour:

TEVA triggered short (with market support) and we closed it out around the entry after the market was flat for almost an hour:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s MCHP triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them we closed flat because of complete market inaction, 4 did not work. Single worst trading ratio win/loss in over a year.
Tags: cost, stock recap
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Thursday, February 21st, 2013
We went from a day with decent range to a day with almost none, despite the fact that the NASDAQ traded 2 billion shares. We left a gap above and spent way too much of the day on the VWAP. No trades triggered.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Thursday, February 21st, 2013
Closed out a 125 pip winner on the EURUSD and had another winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See both sections below. Back to flat.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We were short from the 1.3355 area from the prior session. Adjusted the stop twice and stopped the final piece over the new S1 at A for about 125 pips:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, moved stop over the entry and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, February 20th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AIG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

COST triggered short (with market support) and we closed it at the entry late in the session:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked cleanly and 1 we closed at the entry because it was late in the day (it ended up working too).
Tags: AAPL, aig, AMZN, cost, stock recap
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Wednesday, February 20th, 2013
Two winners, but a stop out first on one of them. See ES and NQ below.
Net ticks: +0.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at 1524.75 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece at 1523.75 at C for 4 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My call triggered short at A at 2777.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, February 20th, 2013
Two stop outs and then a big winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, never quite got to the first target, and eventually stopped overnight. Triggered short at B and stopped. Re-entered at C, hit first target at D, and kept going on the release of the Fed minutes, which tanked the EURUSD. We are still short about 80 pips in the money with a stop over the S2:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, FNSR triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

MENT triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark’s LLTC triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: gs, lltc, stock recap
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
A dull session that gapped up, left the gap behind, and saw half of the day’s range covered in 10 minutes around the 20-minute mark of the session. See ES below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s ES call triggered long at 1525.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
When you put one call on the EURUSD and one on the GBPUSD, you run the risk that neither triggers, but that was where the better layouts were. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
Tags: forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ABMD triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GDX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:

NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work (we took a partial in the Lab though):

His CLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His WPRT triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His EOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: gdx, stock recap
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
No calls for options expiration heading into the long weekend as things were too tight and glue to the VWAP early.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Tuesday, February 19th, 2013
Nothing special for the last day heading into the 3-day weekend here in the US. See EURUSD below for the triggers. The second half of the prior day’s trade stopped out well in the money.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

We will have levels posted Sunday but no calls due to the US Bank Holiday on Monday. Calls and everything else resume Monday.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped. Note that we exactly hit the Pivot again at D but didn’t trigger:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, February 14th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CSTR triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BBRY triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

SINA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His ALXN triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work initially, worked later:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: cstr, stock recap
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Thursday, February 14th, 2013
Same problem as Wednesday. A very nice setup triggered and stopped once before triggering again and working. See ES below. Friday is options expiration heading into a long weekend, so we may not have any futures calls if the action looks flat early.
Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1515.50 and stopped for 7 ticks, then triggered long again 10 minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he revised the stop twice and stopped 5 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, February 14th, 2013
Another nice winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop over 1.3350 (black line):

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, February 13th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, the great CHKP setup that we have been following triggered long (with market support) and went enough for a partial, but it then faced the options unraveling move that was to the downside:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His BTU triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His CLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His FFIV triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: fas, ffiv, nflx, stock recap, vmw
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Wednesday, February 13th, 2013
A nice setup on the ES for the gap fill that failed early, and then triggered again after the first hour for options unraveling and worked, so basically a wash.
Net ticks: -1.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1518.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final half at C at 1516.75:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, February 13th, 2013
Closed out a winner from the prior session, and then a new partial trigger with stop out on the EURUSD. We had calls in the EURUSD and GBPUSD, and the pairs went in opposite directions of our calls. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We were long from the prior session and moved stop under 1.3440 at A, then raised in the morning to B and stopped in the money. 2/3rds of the short under the Pivot triggered at C using our order staggering, and this stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, February 12th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ANGI triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work initially, worked great later:

His KLAC triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His SNDK triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His APC triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s BWLD triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

TEVA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 4 did not.
Tags: AMZN, stock recap, teva, vmw
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Tuesday, February 12th, 2013
One call triggered twice, stopped once and worked the second. See NQ section below.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered short at 2764.50 at A and stopped. Triggered again at B, hit first target, stopped second piece over entry:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, February 12th, 2013
More winners as we locked in a big gain on the GBPUSD from the prior session, added another GBPUSD winner in this session, and added two winners on the EURUSD for today, which we are still carrying the second half of. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half (without adjusting as it was overnight) at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half:

GBPUSD:
Came into the session short from the prior day at 1.5775 area. New trade triggered short at A, it did go 21 pips against so you might have stopped one leg of the trade if you staggered exactly over the 20 pips. Also gave you until B to take it. Hit first target at C, lowered stop on both day’s trades and stopped at 1.5625 at D:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, February 11th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AUXL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, all three of them works, nice clean day despite market volume.
Tags: AAPL, auxl, GOOG, stock recap
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Monday, February 11th, 2013
No triggers as the market held in even narrower range than Friday with people back East still digging out of the storm. Volume was only 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, February 11th, 2013
Nice winner…over 100 pips and still going…for the session. See GBPUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over VAL and still holding second half:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, February 8th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, DECK triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Tags: AMZN, deck, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, February 8th, 2013
Nothing triggered off our calls, and the market established its entire range for the session in the first 30 minutes or so as everyone on the East Coast turned their focus to the snowstorm. Volume was still decent early but then slipped off and only got to 1.7 billion for the close.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, February 8th, 2013
Stopped out of the second half of the prior day’s trade in the money, and then triggered short a new trade and stopped. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index, which is interesting to look at currently.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
The second half of the short from the prior session stopped in the money at A, just barely. The new short triggered at B and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, February 7th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CRZO triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His FDX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GOOG triggered long (without market support) and worked, and the high of the session was the UPT exactly:

NTAP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AMZN, cat, ntap, stock recap
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Thursday, February 7th, 2013
Volume is back. The NASDAQ traded 1.9 billion shares again, and we had another nice day in futures. Could have been a perfect week if the ER had gone an extra tick yesterday. See the ES section below for today’s recap.
Net ticks: +16.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Set the Pivot and then triggered short at 1505.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and then lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at 1498.25 for 27 ticks at B:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, February 7th, 2013
Closed out the second half of the prior day’s short at the entry, and then had a new winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Closed the second half of the trade at the entry from the prior session at A, went up and stopped just before the long trigger (over R1), then rolled hard, triggered short at B and hit first target at C, currently holding with a stop over S2:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, February 6th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SNPS triggered long (with market support but late in the session) and worked enough to give you something:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIIB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich stole my NFLX call and it triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, bidu, GOOG, nflx, stock recap
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Wednesday, February 6th, 2013
One trade that just missed the first target by a tick and then stopped (before working), and one trade that worked, leads to almost a wash for the session. See ES and ER sections below.
Net ticks: -2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1505.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed out the final piece at B at 1507.50 near the Value Area High over lunch:

ER:
Triggered long at A at 902.40 and stopped for 9 ticks after just missing the first target by a tick:

Tags: er, es, futures recap
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Wednesday, February 6th, 2013
A winner on the EURUSD, still going, and that was it for the session. Amazing how the GBPUSD goes from over 200 pips Tuesday to just 45 on Wednesday. You can’t even see a Level line looking at the 24 hour chart on the GBPUSD.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and holding second half with a stop over the Pivot into the new session:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

Rich’s CSC triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AMZN, gs, stock recap
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
A clean winner on the ES for the session and nothing else. See that section below.
Net ticks: +6 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1502.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half at the same 6 tick gain:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
Almost a trifecta as we closed out a winner from the prior session on the EURUSD for over 100 pips, then had another winner on the EURUSD, but also a stop out on the GBPUSD, which triggered again later and worked perfect. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
After lowering the stop a couple of times, we stopped out the final piece of the short from the prior day at A for about 110 pips. The new call triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and I closed the final piece at the entry at D in the morning:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. If you woke up in time, the re-entry at B would have worked extremely well:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ATML triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s DECK triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His HLF triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His HUM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His BIDU triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His JPM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His EBAY triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AMZN, atml, deck, hum, stock recap
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
A loser on the ES and a big winner on the NQ to start the week. See both sections below.
Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at 1501.50 at A and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 2739.50, hit first target for 6 ticks and then accelerated sharply to the downside. Moved stop over S2 and stopped at B for 33 ticks on second half:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, February 5th, 2013
A nice session to start the week with a clean winner on the EURUSD that is still going. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop twice and holding with a stop over LBreak:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
There has been a lot of discussion this week about the state of the economy and what the GDP and Unemployment/NFP data that came out during the week means. Certainly, from the media’s preferred perspective of “scare and fearmonger,” the headline numbers of both could be construed as bad. For the record, the official unemployment rate rose from 7.7% to 7.9%, and the annualized rate of economic growth in the last quarter of last year was a negative number. It came in at -0.1% instead of the expected 1.1%. Keep in mind that while the economy still grew at a 2% or so clip for the total 2012 calendar year, the negative number in the last quarter must imply that things are slowing down, right?
And yet, here’s the S&P today, having received and absorbed both of those data points:

So what gives? Has the market become disconnected to reality? Are the 12 people that have any money left in this country and control the markets just buying things up rub our noses in it? Or is everything as it always has been, which is to say that the market knows everything and behaves accordingly and is getting it right?
My vote is for the latter. I’m a market person. I believe in markets. I believe in trade and capitalism…with rules. Or, anyway, I like to think of them more as guidelines. But, I do believe that the market doesn’t get things wrong. It may get shocked once in a while from information it could not have had, but it prices correctly, no matter how few people are in it.
So what’s the deal then at this point? The economy is shrinking and unemployment is on the rise! Surely this is a bad indication under any measurement.
Let’s first caveat away the actual unemployment rate, because I’m in the camp that says that it is almost useless. Let’s face it, the number of people that would like to work more and make more money, whether they be unemployed, part-time employed, or under-employed, is way higher than 7.9%. But, at the same time, there is always an unemployment rate, and a higher number of “under employed.” Almost separate from the economic collapse here in the US, we were going through a process of outsourcing jobs, and between that and technological improvements, I’m not sure we’re near a place that employment will be back to numbers we are used to for a while. At the same time, when people give up looking for work, they drop off the Labor numbers, and unemployment dips. So the irony is, if people have been out of work but suddenly believe there might be jobs, the unemployment rate can rise as they put themselves back into the “looking for work” camp. It’s a survey, folks. Think about it.
So, from that perspective, since we didn’t LOSE jobs in January, the rise in unemployment at the headline level might mean that people think they have a better chance of getting a job now than previously. Little 0.1 and 0.2 percent moves in unemployment are “noise” just for that reason. Don’t get excited. Don’t get depressed.
Did the economy create jobs in January? Yes. The initial belief is about 157,000 jobs. Are those private or public jobs? Mostly private. Here is an interesting fact.
In just about every recovery in the United States in the last 100 years, part of that recovery has been due to higher levels of government employment. This was true under Reagan, Bush (the first), Clinton, and Bush (the second), just to name a few. It has NOT been true under Obama, something that is often reported incorrectly. But, facts are easy to come by if you want to actually look them up.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has the number of employees of all areas of US government charted. It’s pretty clean and easy:

Note that the spike in 2010 was due to the usual once-per-decade staffing up of Census workers, and then those jobs were gone. So when we say that jobs are being created, they aren’t government jobs.
In fact, if you break down the report, you find that the jobs were mostly in Construction, Retail Trade, and Healthcare.
OK, fine, so how does that 157,000 number compare to historic averages? Let’s take seasonality out of it and just look at a bunch of January’s for job creation, going back to 2003:
January 2003: + 95,000
January 2004: + 162,000
January 2005: + 137,000
January 2006: + 283,000
January 2007: + 236,000
January 2008: + 41,000
January 2009: – 818,000
January 2010: – 40,000
January 2011: + 110,000
January 2012: + 275,000
January 2013: + 157,000
First of all, look at January 2009, the month where Obama was sworn in the first time. 818,000 jobs lost! In a month? Are you kidding me? OK, ignore that year, let’s average the prior 6 January’s. What do you get?
159,000.
Thing is, there is always talk from some about “I’m going to do this and that and unleash the economy and grow a million jobs per month.” It’s not going to happen, under any circumstances. That isn’t how it works. On average, the current number is a respectable number, and when you realize that it was all private sector and not a mix, like we usually would see, well, it’s pretty good.
OK, so let’s put the seasonality back into it and examine the monthly jobs data over the last five years (starting when the economic recession that led to the banking collapse started right at the end of 2007, beginning of 2008). We have that data too, including Friday’s new number:

Hmmmm. Man, all I keep noticing is how bad the job losses were in late 2008 and early 2009. So, when you compare that to the 35-months-in-a-row job creation cycle we’re on, does that look bad? No, in fact, the number on Friday looks pretty solid and the general trend is decent. And again, all of this without expanding the public sector rolls because no one seems to think that doing that is OK anymore, even though it is what helped us get out of much smaller economic dips previously.
How bad was this dip, by the way? If you’re wondering if there is a way to put the job loss from the start of the financial meltdown into perspective, it turns out, there is. These lines each represent periods of job loss in the US since World War 2. The color is marked at the top and tells you which recession started in which year. You then can see the percentage loss of jobs in the economy, and the line doesn’t end until the job numbers get back to where they were before the job losses began.
The current financial meltdown is the red line:

Wow again. Just brutal. The sad thing is, the second longest line is the brownish one, and that started in 2001 and took almost 4 years to get back to square one. This one starts less than four years later…and is worse. Not exactly the best decade for US employment. No wonder people are saving instead of investing (which doesn’t grow us either). You might even call it a Lost Decade.
Which then takes us back to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data that came out this week. This was the first look at the data for Q4 from last year. The top line number, as I said earlier, came in at an annualized -0.1%. If you get two quarters in a row of negative annualized growth, it is considered the start of a recession.
So isn’t that a bad number?
Again, not so fast.
The consumer side was quite healthy, growing at over a 2% clip. What knocked the number down was the dramatic cuts in Federal spending, particular out of the Pentagon. Remember that in their infinite wisdom, Congress and the White House worked out a plan two years ago that if they couldn’t come to terms on budgets by the end of 2012, there would be mass cuts equally in Defense and Domestic Spending.
What we see in this data is that the Defense Department cut back a lot of spending in Q4 (none of which included jobs, just material) to try to prepare for the sequestration (forced cuts) that might be looming so that they could spread out the damage. By doing that, it cut into the economy and knocked the net GDP number down. Now, with the end of year deal, the sequestration is delayed until April, which means that the Defense Department will probably continue the same path. In other words (and isn’t is amazing that suddenly they can cut spending), the Defense Department is trying to find ways to spend less without cutting jobs, hoping that this gets resolved, and they still have their full workforce. But of course, if sequestration does actually kick in, the next piece will not only be less spending, but layoffs, basically guaranteeing a new recession.
In other words, just like we learned out of Europe, austerity doesn’t fix a recession. It makes it worse. Instead of just agreeing to in general a minor set of across the board spending cuts and some tax increases that would point the income and spending sides of the ledger back toward each other over time, Congress is forcing a path toward austerity if they don’t work this out.
But here’s the point. The market doesn’t seem to care. Why?
Same reason that I didn’t think the market would care much about the end of year fiscal cliff situation…unless we really didn’t fix it. The market doesn’t believe that people in Congress are that stupid. Stupid, but not that stupid. It may end up being that this ultimately is one of those surprise shocks to the market when it ends up being wrong if they actually do take us down the road of sequestration. That would send us back to much higher unemployment for the THIRD time in barely a decade, and I’m not sure the economy can sustain that at any level.
So really, what the market is saying is, look, employment is growing at a decent pace in the private sector, and could be doing even better if we were adding some jobs in the public sector as well as we usually do in these cases. The economy is actually growing, although the Pentagon is being proactive and trying to offset some future massive cuts by scaling back in areas without laying people off, and those cuts had a surprise impact on Q4 GDP, although without the impact that making those cuts a permanent deal would be. And in the end, is anybody really going to be dumb enough to trigger the sequestration and really jam the country down that road, which is totally unnecessary? The market is saying that it doesn’t think it will happen, and that right now, if they get through it, the economy is strong enough and doing at least as well as can be considering what just happened a mere 4-5 years ago.
So is the market right? At the moment, I would say yes. Because the market said that Congress and the White House would not take us over the Fiscal Cliff January 1, and they didn’t. Likewise, it seems unlikely that we are going to completely destroy the US economy in the months ahead. But, is there still room for things to happen that the market is being too optimistic about? You betcha.
By the way, even if the market does pause or pull back here after the run up that it has had recently, I leave you with this analogy. If someone runs a marathon and then decides to rest, does that mean they are out of shape?
Trade well.
Tags: education, markets, stocks
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
One winner to start the month, which will hopefully be a better month than January turned out to be. Volume was a solid 2 billion NASDAQ shares, and we had a clean (though limited) winner in the ES. See that section below. Also, note the perfect Value Area play on the QM oil contract.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1504.25 over R2, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under entry:

QM:
Note the clean Value Area play from A to B:

Tags: es, futures recap, qm
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GRPN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t do much either way:

TWTC triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, BIDU triggered short (without any market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s no trades triggering with market support. Can’t remember the last time that happened that wasn’t a Holiday session.
Tags: grpn, stock recap
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
Closed a winner and ended the month of January with another nice winner (that at least pushed us green for the month). See GBPUSD section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see NZDUSD and GBPJPY in particular), and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
We stopped out of the second half of the long trade from the prior session in the money just above A, then the new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and after lowering the stop twice, I closed the final piece at C for over 100 pips for end of week and with a Comber 13 buy signal:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 64%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (during the Holiday week)
Net pips: +185
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10
Tags: forex, forex results, fx
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Friday, February 1st, 2013
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +9.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 42.8%
Net ticks: -59.5 ticks
Not a good month at all. We had Holidays and earnings, but the choppy action was pretty bad most of the month. Although I didn’t end up as bad as these raw results looked, this was one of the least interesting months for trading futures that I can recall. Ranges were narrow even though volume came back a bit. We had a lot of gaps from earnings, and then spent the last week of the month in a very narrow range overall. Our win ratio was lower than we like to see, but still, you expect that a few times a year. The biggest problem was that there were almost no trades that followed through much beyond the initial profits in our winners.
We move forward to February.
Tags: futures, futures results
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Thursday, January 31st, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SNSS triggered long (with market support) and worked great, almost 10% to the highs:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s KERX triggered short (without market support) and worked:

Mark’s BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: brcm, kerx, snss, stock recap
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Thursday, January 31st, 2013
None of the calls triggered in a market that ended up with end of month behavior as expected, although NASDAQ volume was a solid 2.1 billion shares. There was a nice setup in the market late on the long side that didn’t materialize.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, January 31st, 2013
We closed out the second half of a winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, then stopped out of a new GBPUSD trade, and then took it again and are carrying the second half in the money. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We stopped the second half of the prior day’s trade at A, in the money:

GBPUSD:
Set the R1 triggered perfectly at A, then triggered at B and stopped. Came down exactly to set our short trigger at C. Triggered long again in the morning at D, hit our first target at E, and holding second half with a stop under R1 (entry):

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, January 30th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

His FIRE triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His PXD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s FB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

COST triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry as the market went into “waiting for Fed mode” after the first 90 minutes or so:

Rich’s CREE triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His RIMM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not, but some of the better calls went early.
Tags: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, stock recap
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Wednesday, January 30th, 2013
One winner that hit a first target and then rolled back on the NQ and that’s it as the market gave us a typical Fed meeting day. See NQ section below. NASDAQ volume was 1.9 billion shares. Tomorrow is the last day of January.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long at A at 2748.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, January 30th, 2013
A loser on the GBPUSD and a winner on the EURUSD, which is still going. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and still holding with a stop under R2:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CERN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

FSLR triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked great:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work, although the retrigger worked great:

Rich’s RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not, which doesn’t sound nearly as good as the results actually were.
Tags: AMZN, cern, rimm, stock recap
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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013
A winner and a loser on the ES in another session that saw narrow action for the first hour, although the broad market broke out over lunch despite the Fed meeting. NASDAQ volume was 1.9 billion shares.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1496.25, hit first target for 6 ticks at VAH, stopped second half under entry. Triggered short at B at 1493.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. No re-entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013
Clean winner on the GBPUSD for the session. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop up and stopped at C in the money:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, January 28th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked big:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s IDCC triggered long (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s NUS triggered short (with market support) and worked:

COST triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AAPL, idcc, nflx, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, January 28th, 2013
Three calls but only one triggered on a flat day in the market to start the week. Volume looked good early but never came back in the afternoon.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 2740.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, January 28th, 2013
The GBPUSD traded average range, which was good, but the EURUSD traded only 40 pips of range for the session and didn’t trigger either of our calls.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Neither our short nor long triggered or came close in very narrow range:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Thursday, January 24th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
Nothing triggered off of the report.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked for 6 points:

His QQQ triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

CERN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GDX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work (went almost a point for a partial, but not quite):

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked. The AAPL energy play also worked well.
Tags: AAPL, cern, gdx, GOOG, qqq, stock recap
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Thursday, January 24th, 2013
Nothing triggered from the calls as we wrapped up core earnings. Back to work.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Thursday, January 24th, 2013
A loser on the EURUSD, and a winner on the GBPUSD (still going). See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped, would have worked later:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over S1:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial. Bummer that it had to trigger so late in the day during earnings after setting the trigger so nicely:

SGEN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s VMW triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His COH triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, coh, nflx, stock recap, tsla, vmw
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Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013
Two stop outs on the ES as we continue through earnings season and a lot of dull activity (until the last part of the day when the rumors fly). See ES below. NASDAQ volume was 1.7 billion shares.
Net ticks: -14 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1486.50 and stopped, that would have worked on a retrigger but the range was too narrow at the time. Mark’s call triggered short into the Value Area at B at 1484.75 and stopped for 7 ticks, would have been valid again but never triggered:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013
What looked like a boring night with no triggers finally moved a bit but turned into nothing anyway, sweeping one piece of our short entry. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
One piece of out of three would have triggered at A if you follow our order staggering rules as it didn’t even get 3 pips beyond the S1 level. This is a good example of why we stagger trades, as a big news move like that still stalled right at the level, but you can’t expect it to stop to the pip:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, IMGN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

COST triggered long (with market support) and dind’t work, worked later:

AMZN triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s FB triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count for a $100 stock, although in the room, we closed it near the high for a small gain:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: ebay, GOOG, gs, nflx, stock recap
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Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013
One stop out on a clean Value Area setup on the ES, and that was it to start the short week. Volume was decent earely but ended up around the usual 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. The futures spiked in the minutes after the close on some earnings.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call was a nice setup with the Pivot and Value Area High lined up at the same place. Triggered short under that at A at 1476.50 and stopped:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013
A disappointing session, as one trade that ultimately worked perfectly to its first target got stopped first on some news. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A on the news. Also, in the morning, at least a leg or two of the trade triggered at B and stopped:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, ended up stopping on the plunge down on news (which triggered the EURUSD short). Note that if you were awake, the retrigger at B worked perfectly to our target at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Thursday, January 17th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, LRCX (top pick for several days) finally triggered long (without market support) and worked. No surprise that this big long 8-month cup and handle that we have been waiting for ran big once it triggered:

AMAT triggered long (without market support) and worked:

SPLS triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s HLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

Rich’s GOOG triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

Rich’s SHLD triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

BIIB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work (worked later):

FB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 5 did not. Again, the ratio is down during earnings season, although NFLX and LRCX should have been taken.
Tags: amat, lrcx, stock recap
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Thursday, January 17th, 2013
A winner on the ER and a loser on the ES that washed exactly. See both sections below. Market volume was 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares again, and we ended up with a drift higher even though the initial direction for the options unraveling move looked lower. We also left a gap behind.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1470.75 and stopped for 7 ticks:

ER:
Triggered long at A at 884.30, hit first target for 7 ticks and stopped at the same in the money:

Tags: er, es, futures recap
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Thursday, January 17th, 2013
A nice clean trigger and winner still going on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding second half currently with a stop under the R2 level:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, January 16th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, this was one of those rare days where nothing triggered off of the report.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CRUS triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

Rich’s JPM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His ALNY triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His HLF triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His AMGN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

FSLR triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

COST triggered too late in the session.
In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 3 did not. A rare day with an under 50% win ratio, but few triggers, and the ones that worked just didn’t have market support at the time.
Tags: AMZN, fslr, hlf, stock recap
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Wednesday, January 16th, 2013
One winner, see ES below, on a day that we did NOT get the options unraveling move in the markets that we anted. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion shares.
Net ticks: +4 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1464.25, moved up a bit, and 30 minutes later it was stuck at the gap fill, so I did something unusual, which was to just close it out for 4 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, January 16th, 2013
A very narrow session, and we were half size for the CPI. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped eventually. At B, it went not even 2 pips over the entry level, so at most you might have triggered a leg of your trade from an order staggering perspective:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 15th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, OREX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

ARNA swept the trigger (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work, but a clean trigger later did:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CAT triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

His GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, orex, stock recap, tlt
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Tuesday, January 15th, 2013
One loss on the ES on a day with a gap and a mixed market as AAPL dragged down the NASDAQ but everything else did OK. Volume was 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES section below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s long triggered at A at 1462.75 and stopped just barely for 7 ticks, then worked later exactly across the Value Area:

Tags: es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 15th, 2013
A stop out on the GBPUSD and a EURUSD trade that came right to the stop area depending on how you staggered your exit. See both sections below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A. The stop was 20 pips plus spread, and the high at B was 22 pips (Note: Since that was LPT at 22 pips back, you can also just go above that). Either way, you may have stopped part of the trade if you used our order staggering properly, then hit first target at C, and holding whatever is left with a stop over S2:

GBPUSD:
Triggered long over the Pivot at A and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, January 14th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GRPN finally (after watching it for almost two weeks) triggered long (with market support) but then the market rolled sharply and it didn’t work:

SNDK triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

DNDN gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His DTV triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His BBY triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial to the gap fill:

His FIRE triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: cost, dtv, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, January 14th, 2013
A loser on the ES and a winner on the NQ for the session. See both sections below as the market had a fairly flat session trading 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s short triggered at A at 1461.50 and stopped for 7 ticks (missed first target by a tick):

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My long triggered at A at 2728.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second piece 4 ticks in the money. The trade triggered on the DELL news:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, January 14th, 2013
One stop out to start the week. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SINA triggered long (without market support) and worked:

LINTA didn’t do enough to count either way.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BBY triggered long (without market support) and worked:

Rich’s SINA trigger (an early entry to our main call) triggered long (without market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not. However, Rich had some big winners that triggered with the market right on neutral.
Tags: bby, fas, sina, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
A horrible session on light volume covering only 5 points of ES range, but Mark pulled out a small winner in the morning. See ES below.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1465.00, hit the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
A stop out on the new GBPUSD trade, but we closed out a 270 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session. This was our first week back to full size, and it looks like a good call so far.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then take a look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We had adjusted the stop up on the existing call Thursday evening, then raised it under 1.3325 Friday morning, and I finally closed it at 1.3360 for end of week at A. You could also have held that one over, but I’m good with the close out for almost a 270 pip winner to the final exit:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap. fx, gbpusd
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AIRM triggered in the last few minutes, didn’t have enough time to do anything.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s MCP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His BIDU triggered long (without market support) and worked great:

His GS triggered long (without market support) and worked:

AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

BIIB triggered short (with market support) and worked big:

NTAP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked nicely, as did the two that triggered without market support.
Tags: amgn, bidu, biib, mcp, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
ES call triggered twice, stopped once and worked the other. See below.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s ES call triggered short at A at 1457.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. It retriggered at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Saturday, January 12th, 2013
A stop out on the new GBPUSD trade, but we closed out a 270 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session. This was our first week back to full size, and it looks like a good call so far.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then take a look at the daily charts with the Seeker and Comber separately heading into the new week, and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We had adjusted the stop up on the existing call Thursday evening, then raised it under 1.3325 Friday morning, and I finally closed it at 1.3360 for end of week at A. You could also have held that one over, but I’m good with the close out for almost a 270 pip winner to the final exit:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 9th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TNGO triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

HALO triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support due to triggering barely in the opening 5 minutes) and worked:

EBAY triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, fas, halo, stock recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 9th, 2013
Two triggers, two winners for the session. See ES and ER sections below.
Net ticks: +11.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s long triggered at 1457.25 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, second half stopped under the entry:

ER:
My long triggered at 875.90 over R1 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks, adjusted the stop twice and stopped at 876.90 for 10 ticks:

Tags: er, es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 9th, 2013
Two losers for the session. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped completely for 25 pips:

GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, didn’t hit the first target, but we moved the stop directly over LBreak in the morning and stopped at B:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx, gbpusd
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Tuesday, January 8th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CTRX triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes, although we took it in the Lab anyway) and worked:

SGEN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

ARIA gapped under the short trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work initially, worked later:

Rich’s SODA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: ctrx, GOOG, sgen, stock recap
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Tuesday, January 8th, 2013
A nice setup against the Pivot that failed early, but a nice breakdown after that that worked, and that established the range for the day for the market. See ES section below.
Net ticks: +1 tick.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1455.00 and stopped. It spent 20 minutes above the trigger, so I don’t take that again. Mark’s call triggered short under LBreak at B at 1450.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and adjusted the stop twice and stopped 10 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, January 8th, 2013
A winner on the GBPUSD for the session, still holding a piece over. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
One leg of the trade triggered at A and stopped at B, the rest triggered at C and took a partial at the tri-star level at D, still holding the rest with a stop over LPT:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Monday, January 7th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MU gapped over, no play.
FB triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

ONXX triggered long (without market support) and worked:

IRWD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

MAKO just barely gapped under the short trigger, no play (but boy did it work).
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, fb, irwd, mako, onxx, stock recap
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Monday, January 7th, 2013
Net ticks: -18.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1452.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. His long triggered at B at 1455.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. He took both again, with the long triggering at C and stopping again. The short triggered at D, finally hit a first target for 6 ticks, and stopped over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, January 7th, 2013
A loser to start the week on the GBPUSD, although if you follow our order staggering rules, you should have gotten a piece off in the money. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early (half size) at A and never really came back until the middle of the European session to give you the chance to enter unless you set Limit orders. This is one of those cases where we came within 5 pips of the first target and you should have had your orders staggered and gotten at least a leg of your trade off, but we will count it as a loser for simplicity. Stopped at B:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Sunday, January 6th, 2013
As usual, we wrap up the year with a report about the markets and our trading for the last twelve months (here’s a link to last year’s report). Having been involved in and trading the markets now for over 20 years, I have to say that this year was unique in many ways, most of them not really positive for trading. Volume and activity were way down in all three asset classes that we trade (stocks, futures, and Forex). Without action, it really takes a concentrated effort to get and stay green. Overall, I would say again that our flagship stock report performed admirably as usual, while Forex had a decent start to the year but really suffered as ranges dipped to extended historic lows. The futures also suffered from lack of range and volume, especially in the second half of the year.
I make the case often that I believe professional traders should be open to trading anything because things go through cycles, and this was certainly a year that would have challenged anyone trading only Forex or futures in my opinion, although the stock stuff had enough moments to make it the easier asset class to trade. We’ll get into some numbers at the back end, but let’s first look at what the market gave us.
The S&P 500 came into the year at 1257.60 and closed at 1426.19 after once again spending a lot of time on the critical ES level of 1312.50 (an old Tradesight joke from the last decade, as is the EURUSD at 1.2737). That’s a 13% gain on the S&P for the year, which is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Here’s the chart, though, which shows that we didn’t have nearly the up and down swings that we are used to:

And you can see that also by looking at the Volatility Index (VIX) for the year, which, for the first time in the last 5 years, never really got a spike over 40, which creates the pullbacks:

Even with all of the Fiscal Cliff concern, there was never really a drop in the market, and we went through an election with no issues. Also, I’m writing this a few days into 2013, and the market is up strong to start the year as well.
The NASDAQ came into the year at 2277 and closed at 2660, a 383 point gain, or 16.8%. Again, nothing to sneeze at for investors:

If you break out the two key tech sectors, the Semiconductors and Biotechs, you can see that the Bios had a decent year:

However, the Semis were actually down for the year at the midpoint (note that the low bar of the year is a 13 buy signal from our Seeker tool:

I’ve already written up a separate Forex end of year report, but for Forex traders, ranges were the problem, and overall movement wasn’t great either. Here’s the US Dollar Index, which basically traded flat in three boxes for most of the year:

The EURUSD was in a smaller range than normal for annual numbers:

As was the GBPUSD:

The USDJPY had impossibly narrow intraday moves, but on the whole, the US Dollar strengthened against the JPY for the year (even though it slightly weakened against other currencies):

While 2011 saw the nuclear disaster in Japan (and the USDJPY has been pegged and tough to trade ever since), the last two years saw all of the issues out of Europe, including the failed austerity actions (failed meaning that the moves to cut spending has only raised unemployment and done nothing to help their respective economies), the potential (still looming) fracture of the Euro, and the self-created Fiscal Cliff mess that Congress set up for post-2012 election over a year ago.
All of those individuals added up to less economic activity, less movement of money, and a lot of uncertainty about taxes and where money was headed. It has also been a much stricter lending environment as the banks are still reeling from the 2008 debacle, and that hasn’t helped. Add it all up, and all of the markets were somewhat stuck in place.
Volume in the stock market is important for trading, and 2012 set an interesting record from the last FIFTEEN YEARS (this fact is extremely important but will be lost on many people). 2012 was the first time in 15 years that NASDAQ volume never saw a 10-day moving average get over 2 billion shares. Our general rule for good trading has always been that the 2 billion share “average” day or better volume is needed for the better sessions. We did have some days over 2 billion shares, but not many, and the 10 day moving average never got over that number, as you can see here:

Compare that to even 2011, where the moving average spent almost half of the year above that level:

Or 2010, which is a year that is much more typical of what we have seen for a long time, where volume is well over 2 billion shares most of the year, except maybe the summer doldrums of August and the Holiday season of December:

Easily, the single biggest contributor to the trading environment is the lack of volume, which means everything is moving less, and following through LESS, which is the most important point.
Another contributor to this, though, was the amount of “fast” money (i.e. daytrading money) that got “stuck” in Facebook on the IPO:

Again, one of the most poorly handled (except for for people working at Goldman) IPOs in history, and if you line up the biggest drop in market volume, it comes with the day that Facebook went public.
This was not a year that needed that to happen.
Here’s a look at oil, which declined for the year (and despite what some people might try to say, is down quite a bit from what we’ve seen on average the last few years):

There are also some interesting points to be made about some of the bigger tech stocks that we trade frequently, such as AAPL, which had a strong early part of the year but sold off sharply late. It came into the year just over $400 and almost broke $500 in the December plunge, although you’ll notice that the Seeker again gave a 13 buy signal on the day that might have tried to break $500, and that has been the low so far (it is behaving like it will break it soon):

GOOG, on the other hand, had a slower start to the year, but clearly came on stronger in the second half as it continues to see better Android sales than iStuff sales, especially in other countries:

AMZN, another favorite trading stock of ours, had a strong year and held it:

And finally, let’s put a few more things into longer term perspective. Here’s the 8-year chart of the NDX, which now makes the 2008 banking collapse look like a blip, but I’ve marked it up with the high in 2007 when oil first closed over $80 (when Tradesight predicted bad things were coming) and the recent post-stimulus trendline, which started in early 2009 and tested as recently as September. This is a line we’re going to want to watch if the looming “battle” in 60 days leads to too much in spending cuts (“austerity”), which will most likely put the recovery on hold and hurt the markets:

Here’s the S&P over the same period, which hasn’t yet reclaimed the highs of 2007 prior to the collapse, but is clearly in a “channel” that we can monitor:

And finally, here’s the VIX over 8 years. You can’t do a year-end report without showing the importance of the VIX or Rich will get mad:

Remember that the VIX over 40 usually means panic is setting in and a reversal is ready to happen. The spike to 90 and the period of 3 months that the VIX basically held over 40 in late 2008 on the collapse was historic, and at the time, what we said was that when it finally retreated under 40 (which happened in March 2009), that would a long term bottom in the markets. So far, that has proven extremely accurate, but it was also predicated on a lot of good economic decisions coming out of Washington. And certainly, we’ve made the money we wanted on that move. I’m not sure based on the actions out of Washington over the last 18 months or so that we can assume that good decisions will continue to be made, which can still derail the train. Keep in mind that the downgrade of US debt, if you read the report, was not because of our debt ratio or growth rate. It was because of a concern that Washington was suddenly so dysfunctional that it wouldn’t do the things that it has always done to show that the United States is the responsible leading financial player in the world (i.e. always pay our bills and don’t pretend that we wouldn’t).
With the Fiscal Cliff at least behind us (and if they had just done it back six months ago, things would have been a lot better the last six months for trading), we’re already seeing better volume and movement in the opening days of 2013. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get more than a 2 month extension on the sequester, so the spending battle looms and lines up with the debt ceiling increase (again, the more you suggest that the United States might NOT increase the debt ceiling, therefore might NOT pay our existing bills), the more it hurts the economy. And, just like everything these days, my expectation has to be (in terms of guiding traders) that Washington will take it right up to the last day again because they can’t put the country first. So, we will see how long the “better trading” environment that we are seeing signs of lasts before the market gets crippled again wondering how that will be resolved. If you want a better trading environment, call you Congressperson and let him/her know that they better put together a deal that lasts for several years so the market and the economy has certainty. Believe me, that’s more important that the DETAILS of the deal. We can’t keep going through this every 12 months.
So, in the context of that market environment during 2012, I think it is clear that stock trading was the better asset class. Every year, we have one, maybe two months that are losing months in Forex as ranges come and go. This was the first year (in the seven that we’ve been doing Forex) that we had THREE months IN A ROW even that had losses. That’s how bad ranges got.
Meanwhile, almost 70% of our stock trades that triggered with market support worked enough for a partial, which means that even though there were more than normal that didn’t do much beyond the partial, you shouldn’t lose money on those 70% of trades. And we still had plenty of big winners, all of which you can track daily in the Market Blog even if you aren’t a subscriber.
The futures were the middle ground. They still behaved technically, but I see a lot more false starts where a nice setups sweeps once and stops and then works at least to the partial the second time than we have seen in prior years. And that just creates a lot of whiplash and net-nothing days.
I do expect ranges to come back in Forex, and as we see stock market volume improve, Futures will see better action. Stocks, while fairly consistent, will get even better, with more trades following through, with market volume.
So, even though Santa has already come and gone for 2012, if you are asking for anything, ask for volume in the markets. Or better yet, don’t ask him, ask someone in Washington DC, as they are really the ones that can make it happen. But no, the stories you here about “regulation killed the Forex market forever” and “High Frequency Trading makes it impossible for retail traders to make money” are all nonsense. Economic activity will only grow over time on average.
Here’s to a great 2013, and thanks for being the best subscribers in the world.
Tags: forex, futures, markets, options, recap, stocks, summary
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
Let’s start with the results for the year, and then we will layer how the market behaved on top of it. First, let’s clarify that the trading system that we teach in our courses is something that you can apply and use to develop many more trades than just the ones that we call each day. Using the system, we try to target 50-60% winning trades, and we keep our losses very tight (25 pips max) with no exceptions. The system works better when the pairs are trading good average daily ranges, and we certainly saw a drop off in ranges in 2012, especially in the second half of the year. In the prior year, 2011, we netted almost 3100 pips for the year with about a 51% win rate. 2012 was not that year, but it was still respectable, and certainly, I’d take the average of the two years each year and be happy.
In 2012, we had 337 triggers off of our main trade calls (again, if you have taken the courses, you can find much more to do, including trading some of the pairs beyond the EURUSD and GBPUSD, using Value Areas, etc.). 160 were winners. That’s at 47.5% win ratio, which is slightly below our targeted range of 50-60%, but if there was going to be a year where that happened, it would be 2012 with the bad ranges. I haven’t seen anything like that since 2007.
Separately, these results don’t account for the fact that we told our subscribers to go half size late in the summer as range dropped. This is something that we typically do around August if the summer doldrums present themselves, but we move back to full size shortly after when ranges resume. This year, since ranges didn’t resume, we are still half size at the end of the year. The net pip gains for the calls was exactly 700 pips, and again, that doesn’t account for the fact that the last four months of the year were half size. Three of those months gave us negative results (although December was a return to gains with 185 pips locked in).
If you take the 12 months in order, here were the pip gains or losses: +330, +70, +100, +125, +10, +275, +150, +100, -130, -100, -45, and +185.
Every year has one losing month with our system, often during the summer doldrums. The Tradesight Forex service launched in 2005. A couple of the years since (including 2007, which was really slow), we saw two losing months, although never back to back. We had 3 months in a row here with net losses in 2012. That’s how bad the market got.
Keep in mind, however, that even with those months, we had net gains for the year, and our system prevented major harm from being done as we keep our losses very tight. If you adjust the last four months to half size, the net gain was really +785 (might have been even bigger exception December was a decent month).
One other way to look at it, and I’m happy to see this because it fits with the “system” that we want, is that most of those 700 pips were locked in during the first six months of the year, and then the last six months, which were as narrow as I’ve seen, were basically a wash. It’s hard to have a problem with a trading system that essentially gives you no gain or loss when the worst environment for the system presents itself.
You can browse the net results of each month by clicking here and scrolling down.
So let’s put the year into perspective with some charts, but we will keep it to a few as we also have a separate end of year report for all markets.
Let’s start by taking a look at the most commonly traded pair out there, the EURUSD. I’ve drawn a flat black line on each of these charts from the start of the year so you can see if we net gained or lost:

What you’ll notice in that chart is that even though it traded 1400 pips from high to low, which sounds like a lot, most of the moves were in the boxes that I’ve drawn, where we made good money. Too much of the year was spent in flat action, and we only ended up 200 pips higher than we started the year. I should also point out the the prior year saw 2000 pips of range in the EURUSD, but we saw a full move up the 2000 pips and then back, which is a lot more movement.
Here’s the GBPUSD, which has a nice cup and handle formed for a potential breakout in 2013:

Here we saw only 1000 pips of range, and it still had the same few months with the best action. Note that ALL THREE Seeker 13 signals during the year (1 buy, 2 sells) were very timely. But here, the net gain for the year was 650 pips.
Keep in mind that both the EURUSD and GBPUSD rose during the year, which is negative for the US Dollar. However, the USDJPY told the opposite tale, breaking out of a nice cup formation:

So against the JPY, the US Dollar got much stronger. Unfortunately, even with that action, the daily ranges in the USDJPY have been crippling from a trading perspective since the nuclear incident in 2011.
So the net of all of that is that the US Dollar itself barely changed for the whole year of 2012. Here’s the index:

Notice that we did move up mid-year, then came back a bit and went flat as the Fiscal Cliff situation approached. The election had little to no impact.
I’ve drawn three boxes, however, that show just how stuck and boring the US Dollar was for big sections of the year.
In the end, it wasn’t the type of year that we’ve seen in the past, but you can’t expect every year to be exciting. No, it doesn’t mean that the Forex market is dying. Too many people blame regulation for killing the Forex market, but my opinion is that that plays a tiny sliver of a role. We saw ranges dip in 2007 for a while, but they were ridiculously big in 2008 with the banking collapse and great in the years after (until 2012). With Japan’s currency seemingly being controlled post-nuclear incident, Europe in trouble, the world in a SPENDING recession (which aren’t helped by austerity moves), and the US creating a useless (I’ll go ahead and say it…complete stupid and unnecessary) amount of uncertainty with the Fiscal Cliff, there just wasn’t a lot of currency moving. It will move again, but our system is designed to protect you in the slow periods (obviously, if they last for years, it would be bad), which it did. Here’s to 2013.
Tags: eurusd, forex results, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2012
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (end of the month)
Net pips: -45
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 64%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (during the Holiday week)
Net pips: +185
Although we only count the raw numbers, we continue to be at half size now for the last four months due to the horrible Forex ranges (which may be improving finally). This was a much improved month that wiped out much of the losses of the last three months while still being half size. Our winning percentage jumped considerably, as you can see in the numbers above. 64% is well above the expectation for winning trades, and it certainly makes for better months. We saw slight improvement in ranges in all of the pairs from prior months (EURUSD back up to 100 pips for the month or so, an improvement on November’s 80 pips). With the fiscal cliff deal done (although another dumb battle looming), hopefully ranges will continue to improve, and we can get back to full size in early 2013 finally.
I have a separate end of year summary report for Forex going up behind this one, so I’ll just leave this as is.
Tags: forex results, fx
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2012
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.4%
Net ticks: -27 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +9.5 ticks
An interesting end to the year. We didn’t do any calls in the last week with the Holidays, half days, and the usually light end of year volume. Therefore, we only had 25 calls for the month, which is much less than usual. Ranges in the market were mostly light early on, and while the stock market has been interesting, the futures market remains a little bit contained, although certainly, December was better than November (ignoring the last week). We’re still seeing too many cases where nice setups will sweep once before going and working the second time, and that brings down the net results.
We don’t have an end of year summary report for the futures calls since we didn’t start tracking the results until June. We will have one (like Forex has had for years) next year. You can view prior months by clicking here and scrolling through them all.
Tags: futures, futures results
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SQNM triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

CERN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work quite enough for a partial (although we sold it in the room in the money):

WIN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SINA triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work, although it worked later on the retrigger, but we only count the first one:

Rich’s VMW triggered short (with market support for a moment) and didn’t work:

His LULU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AKAM triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

COST triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 4 did not, although we had several calls that triggered cleanly out of the gate (like SQNM) that worked.
Tags: GOOG, sqnm, stock recap, win
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
A trigger and a stop out on the ES. See that section below. This was a very slow trading session with little consistent movement, although NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion in the end. Always interesting when the NQ plays out the whole day under the Value Area, while the ES is mostly above it.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1459.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, January 4th, 2013
A winner to close out the week. See the EURUSD section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, gave you many opportunities for entry, including in the European session, and didn’t quite stop at B, hit first target at C. Adjusted stop over entry and stopped at D:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, January 3rd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SNTA triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

SYMC triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

TQNT gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FDO triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His WLP triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (just barely with market support) and worked:

Rich’s TJX triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His XLNX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GE triggered short (with market support) and worked a little, no risk:

His VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 9 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AMZN, stock recap, vmw
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Thursday, January 3rd, 2013
Four triggered total, two on the NQ and two on the ES, both swept their entries exactly the first time and worked the second late in the session. See both sections below.
Net ticks: -2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A under the trigger at 1452.75 and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered in the afternoon at B and I closed for 4 ticks as it was getting too late in the session to have both trades on:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short into the Value Area at A at 2729.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered short again at B, hit first target for six ticks, lowered stop and finally exited at 2725.25:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Thursday, January 3rd, 2013
Got stopped out of an early trigger on the EURUSD, and then it triggered later and worked if you were up. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped for 25 pips before the European session began. Should have re-entered the trade under our rules, but I didn’t post it to the Messenger, so we won’t count it. Triggered short at B and hit first target at C if you did:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
No calls in the report due to the huge gap.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GDX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work, but then triggered and worked great for us. Officially, we only count the first trigger:

MENT triggered long (with market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

COST triggered long (with market support) late in the day and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: cost, GOOG, stock recap
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
Not the best start to the year for futures as the market gapped up so big, we didn’t have much for Levels to use for setups. The same trade triggered three times, stopping twice, but working the third time. See ES below. Volume in the market was good though, so hopefully that holds and we can get back to normal trading.
Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1446.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again at B and stopped. Triggered again at C, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
A winner in the GBPUSD to start 2013. Always nice to start the year with a winner. See that section below for the recap.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under the entry and stopped at C:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
No calls in the report.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Tags: AMZN, nflx, stock recap
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
No trades for the last session of the year. Volume was actually decent at 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares and there was some movement as it looks like the fiscal cliff talks are at least moving. See you Wednesday, and calls will resume!
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013
A loser and a bigger winner, both on the GBPUSD, to close out the year. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

No calls or Levels tonight for the New Year’s Holiday. New calls and Chat tomorrow after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece for 50 pips at D at end of the chart. Didn’t want to hold through the Holiday:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
No calls from the report.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s JPM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: bidu, fas, stock recap
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
Another day of poor action and volume, retreating again from Thursday’s uptick in volume to only 750 million NASDAQ shares. The whole session was a flatline except for one 10 minute spike when rumors circulated that the White House and Congress might cut a short term deal to avert the cliff. Shocking.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
Two stop outs and a winner so almost a wash to close out the week and almost the quarter and year (one more session of calls Sunday).
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
The schedule will be the same this week as last. Levels and calls Sunday, although low expectations to close out the year unless the Fiscal Cliff is resolved. No Levels or calls Monday as most Forex brokers are closed from rollover to rollover Monday to Tuesday. New Levels and calls Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday to start the year.
As we do every year, there will be a lengthy end of year report posted recapping the markets for the year (stocks, futures, and forex).
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
No calls from the report. The calls from the prior day’s report were still good, but none of them triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered short in the morning (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:

SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AAPL triggered short (with market support) in the afternoon and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: cost, sina, stock recap
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
No calls again as volume was way too light, although we did get a spike down on concerns about the Fiscal Cliff and then a spike up in the afternoon when rumors circulated that Congress would be back December 30. Not that that means anything is solved. In the end, the S&P lost a point for the session.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Friday, December 28th, 2012
We closed out a 40 pip winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, and the new trade triggered and ended up stopping just under the entry. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We came in long from the 1.3216 area from the prior session with a stop under that (which was the new Pivot). We ran up and hit the first target from that trade, and also triggered long at A the new trade over R1, then moved the stop under R1 on all of it in the morning and stopped at B:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, December 26th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s PXD triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His TIF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

TEVA triggered short (with market support) and didn’t go far but mostly held in the money:

Rich’s EBAY triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: stock recap, teva, tif
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Wednesday, December 26th, 2012
NASDAQ volume was only 700 million shares again. This is going to be a wasted week. No futures calls were made due to the light volume. Maybe the volume will be a little better Thursday. Friday should be a waste as everyone heads out again for the long weekend.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
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Wednesday, December 26th, 2012
Better ranges than I would have thought, and we had a stop out on the EURUSD and then it triggered again and was working as I post this. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped (note the 13 Comber sell signal right at the trigger). Triggered long at B, didn’t quite hit the first target of R2 just off the top of the screen. Still holding with a stop under the R1 entry:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, December 21st, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, there were no calls.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s ORCL triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His GLD triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

His JPM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His NUS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, gld, GOOG, stock recap
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Friday, December 21st, 2012
One loser that I didn’t re-enter (it worked great the second time). The market gapped down on the “news” that the House failed to pass a second option for the Fiscal Cliff situation. Not that anyone should have been surprised and not that whatever they passed would have gone through the Senate. At any rate, we closed higher than we opened by a bit but left a huge gap above. At the same time, we had options expiration, which caused a lot of volume early, but we still only hit 2 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long on a stop at 2651.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks but just barely, almost a great play:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Friday, December 21st, 2012
A loser and a small winner to close out the week. See EURUSD below.
As usual with the Sunday reports, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see EURUSD and GBPUSD in particular) and then discuss the US Dollar Index.
Last reminder: Levels and Calls Sunday (not expecting much), Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Nothing Monday as the Forex markets are closed.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short early at A just barely and stopped. Triggered short again at B and closed at end of chart for end of week:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, December 20th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PAAS gapped under, no play, although it filled the gap and then worked fine.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NFLX triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

Rich’s AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His HLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His CF triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work the first time, worked great later:

Rich’s RAX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His MA triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: fas, nflx, rax, stock recap
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Thursday, December 20th, 2012
Two winners on the ES, although no real follow-through once again as volume started to dip and we really didn’t get an options unraveling move, which is interesting. Doubtful that we will get one Friday, and there might not even be any calls.
Net ticks: +7.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
My call triggered short at A at 1430.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped final piece 4 ticks in the money. Mark’s long triggered at B at 1436.25, hit first target for 6 ticks eventually, and stopped second half under the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, December 20th, 2012
Another winner in the EURUSD, see that section below.
Tonight is likely to be slow, as we have triple expiration Friday ahead, which includes currency futures. Less than half size.
Levels will go up every day next week, and we will have calls on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but with low expectations. Tuesday is a US bank holiday.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop under UPT and stopped at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ITMN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

DNKN, SOHU, and FLIR gapped over, no plays. RGLD gapped under the short trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His EBAY triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His DISH triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His VMW triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AMZN, stock recap, vxx
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Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
Three triggers on the ES, one worked and two didn’t. See ES section below.
Net ticks: -8.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s short triggered at A at 1438.25 in the morning and stopped. A later call triggered short at B at 1436.50 and stopped quickly, then retriggered at C, worked to the first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the final piece also in the money by 5 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
Clean winner for the session in the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped under the R1 entry in the morning:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
Nothing triggered off of the report.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial while filling the gap:

Rich’s AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TRIP triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Tags: AMZN, stock recap, tlt
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
No trades triggered from the calls today.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Tags: futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Wednesday, December 19th, 2012
A small winner late in the session after a flat overnight. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Finally triggered long at A, and I closed it at B 20 pips in the money because we were getting late in the session and I was heading out (usually not a reason, but good enough in this environment):

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, December 17th, 2012
The ES was higher by 18 on the day. This was expected after our 10-day Trin recorded an oversold reading. Note that price is above all of the major moving averages.

The NQ futures were higher by 39 full handles on the day. Again price is back above all the major moving averages but needs to prove itself by clearing the 5/8 level.

The total put/call ratio recorded an extreme downside reading which is a serious cause for concern for the bulls.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is even more overbought and climatically reading that the overall market is out of upside gas.

The BKX was the top gun on the day, exploding past the recent high and decisively closing above the 4/8 level.

The OSX is still technically challenged and traded in-line with the market. Keep in mind that it is still below the DTL.

The BTK was higher on the day but did not make a new high on the move.\

The SOX lagged the NAZ and remains below the 200dma.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Monday, December 17th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CTRP triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

INFA gapped over, no play.
MDRX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s X triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked for a couple of points:

His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

His BIIB triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:

NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

NTAP triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, AMZN, gs, stock recap, tlt
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Monday, December 17th, 2012
One loser on the ES and Mark chose not to take it again (second trigger worked).
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1417.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Monday, December 17th, 2012
None of our calls triggered as the EURUSD was amazingly flat for the session. I’ll just recap the charts below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:

Tags: forex recap, fx
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, December 14th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His OIH triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked for a couple of points:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His JOY triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His LULU triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, AMZN, oih
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, December 14th, 2012
No calls on a Friday for the futures contract roll. This day every quarter tends to be very dangerous as the big players are just moving their trading to the new (H3 – March 2013) contract. Given that it is also a Friday in December, things were very dull. The ES traded in a 5-point range until the last hour when things finally slipped. You’ll note in the charts that we barely touched any key levels.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


Late in the day, we had a 9-bar setup move down to S1 that led to a bounce:

Tags: es, futures recap
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Friday, December 14th, 2012
A stop out and then a bigger winner on the EURUSD. See that section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (look at breakouts on the EURUSD and AUDUSD) with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then glance at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see there).
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggerd long at B, hit first target at C, and closed final piece at D for 50 pips and the end of the week:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, December 13th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CTSH triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, then rolled with the market, destroying an otherwise perfect breakout pattern:

WERN triggered short (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

TLT triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

EBAY triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s V triggered short (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Rich’s POT triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His CRUS triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 11 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, 4 did not.
Tags: AAPL, gs, pot, stock recap
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Thursday, December 13th, 2012
Couple of triggers with various results. See ES and NQ sections below. Tomorrow, we start trading the H3 (March 2013) contracts, and the first day of trading a new contract is usually a little sketchy.
Net ticks: -2 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
My short triggered at A at 1425.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Mark’s long triggered at B at 1430.75 and stopped for 7 ticks. Both were cancelled in terms of further entries:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s long triggered at 2679.00 at A and hit the first target and more, closing the final piece on a stop at 2685.50 at B. His short triggered at 2665.50 at C and hit the first target, and the second half stopped over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
Posted in Tradesight | No Comments »
Thursday, December 13th, 2012
Closed out two winners carried from the last two days at gains, and then got stopped out of a new short in the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Stopped out of the winners from the prior two sessions under the Pivot for 85 and 20 pip winners to final exit. New trade triggered short at A and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, December 12th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SPWR triggered long (without market support) and worked:

ROVI triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

NUVA triggered long (without market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, GS triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His APC triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: amgn, AMZN, spwr, stocks recap
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Wednesday, December 12th, 2012
Two winners and no losers for the Fed announcement. See ES and NQ below. Market volume was a little light at 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +10.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s ES triggered at A at 1437.75 after the Fed, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My short triggered at A at 2689.00 and hit the first target for 6 ticks and kept going. After adjusting the stop a few times, the final exit was 2684.00 for 10 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, December 12th, 2012
Another winning trade on the EURUSD, plus we’re now over 100 pips in the money on the trade from the prior session. It really feels like Forex is starting to improve, even if the ranges aren’t great yet. See EURUSD section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We came in long from the prior session with a stop under LBreak that never hit. Triggered long a new trade at A, hit first target at B, and still carrying both longs with a stop under R2:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, December 11th, 2012
The ES expanded the rally’s range gaining 11 on the day. The MACD is above the zero line and carrying positive momentum. The next challenge for the bulls will be the 8/8 level at 1437.

The NQ futures were higher by 35 on the day and finally may be losing their relative weakness. Pride is now back above all the major moving averages and the MACD is just above the zero line which opens the door for momentum. Expect that the 5/8 level will be very key since it terminated the bounce in November and was the origin of the exhaustion gap on 12/3.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

The cause for concern to the bulls is the 10-day Trin which is very close to recording the first overbought reading since mid September.

Multi sector daily chart:

The SOX/NDX cross continues to make progress and is a very good indication that the relative weakness in the NDX may be taking a turn for the better. The NDX tends to lead the SPX and within the NDX the SOX tends to lead. So continued relative strength in the SOX is bullish for the NDX and then by extension relative strength in the NDX is bullish for the broad market.

The SOX was the top gun on the day and have solidly broken out above the active static trend line. Keep in mind that as this key index has pushed higher, the 200dma will be a formidable level.

The BTK was almost as strong as the SOX and could drive up to the swing high in October.

The BKX has yet to get the key boost from the MACD crossing above the zero line…stay tuned.

The OSX was flat on the day and is still being pulled by the DTL.

The XAU was lower on the day serving as a source of funds. Price bearishly remains below all of the important moving averages.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market prevewi, NQ, rich
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Tuesday, December 11th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CELG gapped over the trigger, no play.
LLTC triggered long (with market support) and worked:

ISIL triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s TXN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His BRCM triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s CRM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

My AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: isil, lltc, stock recap, txn
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Tuesday, December 11th, 2012
A loser and then a winner on the ES for net gains on a gap and go day that saw better volume than the prior session. We closed with 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares as we wait for tomorrow’s Fed announcement.
Net ticks: +3 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1425.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. He put it back in again and it triggered shortly thereafter, hitting the first target for 6 ticks and, after 3 raised stops, finally stopping the final piece at 1428.50 for 13 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, December 11th, 2012
Another winner in the EURUSD, this one still going. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
You have to love trades that exactly hit the trigger before they move through. We were looking to go long over R1, and we hit it first at A and B exactly, then triggered at C, hit first target at D, and moved the stop twice. We are currently holding with a stop under R2:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, December 10th, 2012
The ES was higher on the day by 4 handles, nominally expanding the upside of the recent range on a low volume day. While the day was unimpressive internally, this is the first session of the move that where the close settled above the open.

The NQ futures put in a similar relative performance to the SP but still have a very different technical setup as price remains below the 50 and 200dma’s. The Relative weakness in the NQ side will be discussed in more detail below. Keep a close eye on the key 4/8 Gann level just abovfe.

Multi sector daily chart:

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin remains neutral:

The NDX has had persistent weakness vs. the SPX side since mid-September. This is a clear warning sign and a classic intermarket divergence. This condition needs to be rectified or it will surely hold back the overall broad market. Note the attempt to break back into the trend channel and rejection.

While the NDX tends to lead the SPX within the NDX there is a key leading component the SOX. As described above the NDX has relative weakness but the SOX has been improving after not making a new relative low. If the SOX can get back above the trend channel, then the NDX will have its trend leading component in a bullish position of relative strength.

The BTK was the top Naz sector, once again challenging the active static trend line.

The XAU is bouncing off a short-term oversold condition.

The SOX has settled above the static trend line and is now on the north side of the 10ema and 50dma. The next challenge will be the 200dma if it can clear relatively minor 5/8 Murrey math level.

The OSX is still grinding in the area of the active DTL:

The BKX was a laggard and is still contained by the 50dma:

If oil moves just a bit lower it will record a Seeker exhaustion buy:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Monday, December 10th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, IDTI triggered long (with market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count:

CROX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FB triggered long (with market support) and worked:

NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked:

COST triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

Rich’s JPM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His IBM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His INFI triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, and worked again later too:

His DECK triggered short (without market support) and didn’t go enough in either direction to count:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: fb, nflx, stock recap
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Monday, December 10th, 2012
A very limited day in the market on light volume. Mark’s ES trade triggered twice, worked once. See that section below. NASDAQ volume was only 1.4 billion shares.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1419.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, December 10th, 2012
And back to limited ranges. The EURUSD triggered long but never hit the stop or first target. I finally closed it just a little in the money for the end of the session. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, closed at end of chart for end of session just barely in the money:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Sunday, December 9th, 2012
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2012
Number of trades: 39
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Net ticks: -27 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2012
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.4%
Net ticks: -27 ticks
A very strange month. Volume was light. We had the Hurricane that killed off action early. The election played a role. We had another bank Holiday in Veteran’s Day. We had Thanksgiving. In the end, we only had 26 trades trigger, compared to 36 the prior month and more typically. It’s just a weird month. Market volume was light the whole month, so size should have been limited. We started out strong and were profitable until the last two days of the month and then got stopped out of several trades in a row that killed us. Hopefully, December is better.
Tags: es, futures, futures results, NQ
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Sunday, December 9th, 2012
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2012
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 33.3%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: -100
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2012
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (end of the month)
Net pips: -45
Last month we set a record by having two months in a row of negative returns from our Forex calls, although we lowered our size to half in late August and have maintained that size. November didn’t improve the situation as we net lost 45 pips in November, the third month in a row (and the first time in 7 years of 3 months of negative returns), but we continue to be half size (and the only time since 2007 that we have been half size this far into the post-summer months). Frankly, it’s just a mess, but it won’t stand forever, and the fact that we have been half size in the first 3-month period of net losses shows that the system works. Also, having said that, we think things will pick up soon as the ranges have dropped to intolerable levels unseen in a decade.
It should also be noted that losing only 45 pips at half size is minor, and we only had 21 trades trigger (a record low) due to Hurricane Sandy and other factors (Thanksgiving and more). In other words, our system continues to protect our subscribers from bad environments.
Tags: eurusd, forex results, fx
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Sunday, December 9th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TRIP triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:

MENT gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s LULU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 1 trade triggering with market support and it worked.
Tags: AAPL, stock recap, trip
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Sunday, December 9th, 2012
A winner and a loser to wrap up a decent start to December this week. See ES and NQ below.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 1414.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s call triggered short at A at 2660.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Sunday, December 9th, 2012
Closed out a 120 pip winner and had another winner for the session to end a decent week. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber heading into the new week (no specific counts to look at), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We came in short the second half of the trade from the prior session from 1.3040 or so with a stop over 1.2980. Our new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and we lowered the stop over S1 in the morning and stopped both trades, with the trade from the prior session 120 pips in the money:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, December 6th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AUXL triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BRCM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work, then worked a second time:

His TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:

His JPM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His NEM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His MCHP triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His CAT triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His GMCR triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

In total, that’s 8 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 5 did not.
Tags: AAPL, gmcr, stock recap
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Thursday, December 6th, 2012
One call that worked, and that was it. Market had a small gap down and filled within ten minutes. Volume was decent at 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES below.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered long at A at 1410.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Thursday, December 6th, 2012
A nice winner on the EURUSD which is still working to the downside. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop over the black line at 1.2980:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, December 5th, 2012
The SP was higher by 3 on the day and really did very little technically. The day’s real body is almost exactly what yesterday’s was and price was little changed. The settlement remains pinched between the 10ema and 50sma. The range needs to be resolved and then new technicals will develop. Keep in mind that there is still a recent Seeker 9 bar setup that has just completed.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by a hefty 27 handles. This was undoubtedly because of the steep losses in AAPL which is the largest NDX member. It is what it is and this settled the futures below the 10ema which turns the chart back to short term negative. Another technical to beware of is the fact that price is now back below all of the important moving averages and 50dma may cross below the 200dma which some technicians believe accelerates the move. That’s not our technical perspective but moving average crosses are widely followed and can be a self-fulfilling event.

Multi sector daily chart:

Total put/call ratio:

The 10-day Trin is staging but has not yet recorded an overbought reading.

The NDX very weak vs. the SPX and this condition is always worrisome for the broad market bulls.

The BKX was the top gun on the day but was unable to break out of the recent trading range. Keep in mind that the 50dma is a key level.

The OSX was slightly higher and is approaching a major break out/resistnace level where the moving average meets the trend line.

The SOX was flat on the day with no new technical developments.

The BTK was inside yesterday’s candle and unchanged on the day.

The housing index, HGX, finally is feeling the effect of the Seeker. This break should have been expected and is likely just starting a move.

While the HGX got smashed, it was not the weakest sector on the day, that place was taken by the XAU. This broke the XAU to a new low, be sure to see the comments on gold futures below.

Oil:

Gold recorded a Seeker exhaustion signal and should find support. Keep an eye on the YG, GLD and XAU for signs of reversal.

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Wednesday, December 5th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GNTX triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FCX triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His CAT triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His FIRE triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: AAPL, fas, fire, GOOG, stock recap
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Wednesday, December 5th, 2012
A winner on the NQ and a loser and winner on the ES for the session. See both sections below.
Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s short triggered at A at 1405.75 and stopped for 7 ticks and he did not re-enter. His long triggered at B at 1410.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:

NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My short triggered at A at 2652.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and I lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at 2646.50 at B:

Tags: es, futures recap, NQ
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Wednesday, December 5th, 2012
One stop out and that’s it on the EURUSD. See that section below.
GBPUSD in a 30 pip range now. Ouch.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A early, gave you until the European session to take it, then stopped for 25 pips at B. The short never triggered, although it came close:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, December 4th, 2012
The SP was little changed on the day still unable to get above the key 50dma. Price used the 10ema for support and the resolution of this mini-range should extra punch.

The NQ futures were lower on the day by 5 and has the same range condition as the SP side. Beware that the 4/8 Murrey math levels is the third strongest of the box.

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

10-day Trin:

The SPX/TLT ratio took a turn in favor of risk off and is still unable to challenge the upper half of the trading range.

The OSX was top gun on the day and closed at a new high on the move. Note that the 50 and 200dma’s will be strong overhead.

The SOX was notable stronger than the overall NAZ.

The XAU was flat on the day after recouping a big loss. This has the potential to be an important higher low.

The BTK is still contained by the active static trend line but above all the major moving averages.

The BKX was the last laggard on the day and has troubling looking construction. Note that there has been no 9 bar seeker setup buy to support it.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Tuesday, December 4th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s LVS triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His GPS triggered short (without market support) and worked great:

COST triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

Rich’s AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work, worked later:

His CAKE triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His ARUN triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work enough either way to count:

BIIB triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work enough either way to count:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not, but strangely despite those raw numbers, it was a big day.
Tags: cake, gps, sina, stock recap
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Tuesday, December 4th, 2012
A winner in the ES on a narrow market day where volume dropped back off early. We traded only 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered short at 1406.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks and stopped the second half over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, December 4th, 2012
Very interesting. After one day of good range and a nice easy winner for us, we go back to 40 pips of range on the GBPUSD and no triggers from our calls.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Trigger was long over R1, never hit:

Tags: forex recap, fx
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Monday, December 3rd, 2012
The ES was lower by 8 on the day after completing the 9 bar Seeker setup on Friday. Price is still being rejected by the 50dma that we have been focusing on. Going forward this will be an important point of reference perhaps even more so than the intraday high that was put in place Monday. Note that the CCI has not yet crossed the zero line which is where lasting upside momentum lies.

The NQ’s were only down ½ as much as the SP side but the chart construction is identical. Price opened above the 50dma and as it should have failed. The MACD has the same condition with no penetration of the zero line. The ES, NQ and YM all have downside CPS signals.

Multi sector daily chart:

The 10-day Trin is below the 1.00 level but not yet in the overbought area of 0.85-.

The total put/call ratio is still in the neutral zone.

The relative strength of the NDX/SPX cross has just turned back into the comfort channel. A little more penetration into the channel would be a nice bullish sign for the NDX

The SPX/TLT cross is stuck in the middle of the channel. This is the current midpoint of the risk-on/risk-off measure.

The XAU was the last laggard on the day and continues to bearishly ride the 10ema lower.

The BKX is still pinching between the two big moving averages.

The SOX completed 9 days up in the Seeker and bearishly closed back below the 4/8 level.

The OSX was stronger than the broad market:

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Monday, December 3rd, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SANM triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

IDCC triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:

SGMS triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

His GS triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

His CF triggered short (with market support) and worked:

GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:

Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

Rich’s NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked great:

AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work the first time, worked later:

In total, that’s 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: cf, nflx, sanm, stock recap, vxx
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Monday, December 3rd, 2012
A nice start to the month and week with two clean setups on the ES and both worked. See that section below.
Net ticks: +11.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
We gapped over the UPT and used it as the low of the first bar of the day, so an easy call is short under that at A at 1420.25. We hit the first target for 6 ticks and then accelerated on news and eventually stopped the final piece at 1417.25 for 12 ticks at B. Mark then called the setup against the Value Area High and Pivot, short at 1414.25 at C, and this hit the first target for 6 ticks and stopped the final piece over the entry:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, December 3rd, 2012
A nice start to the month as we got a clean trigger and nice move on the GBPUSD. See that section below, and we’re still long as we end the session. It even traded average range finlly.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding the second half with a stop under R2. Note that the high was the tri-star level and the Average Daily Range boundary:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Friday, November 30th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MXIM triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His YUM triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AMZN, bidu, stock recap
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Friday, November 30th, 2012
It’s end of month and Friday and the market was completely dead for the first hour. Despite my better judgement, I went ahead and put a breakdown short in the Messenger just in case. The results were predictable to close out the month. See ES below.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1411.25 and stopped for 7 ticks:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Friday, November 30th, 2012
Two more stops to close out a miserable week. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately, and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Thursday, November 29th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ONNN gapped up and opened at the trigger, so technically no play even though it worked.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s LQDT triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His CAP triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:

NFLX triggered short (just barely without market support) and worked:

In total, that’s NO trades that triggered with market support, a first.
Tags: stock recap
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Thursday, November 29th, 2012
Well, an unfortunate day after a good one as three trades stopped in narrow choppy range early. Looks like the new rule of the day is going to be that the market will spike either way as various members of Congress and the White House come out and say whether or not progress has been made on the Fiscal Cliff. Should be fun. See ES and ER sections below.
Net ticks: -23 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s long triggered at 1416.75 at A and he called off any retriggers:

ER:
Triggered short at 818.90 at A on one note out of Congress and stopped, then triggered again 5 minutes later and stopped. I called off additional triggers:

Tags: er, futures recap
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Thursday, November 29th, 2012
Almost a dead flat trade for the session as we again had contained ranges, although the EURUSD was about 100 pips so there will be decent Levels spacing for tonight’s last day of the month. See GBPUSD below for last night’s review.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, never stopped because that would have been under the Pivot at B, didn’t quite hit the first target at C, and adjusted the stop in the morning just under the entry and stopped at D:

Tags: forex recap, fx, gbpusd
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Wednesday, November 28th, 2012
The ES was higher by 9 on the day racing back up to the top of the recent range. The bad news is that the range is still holding and has not yet been resolved.

The NQ futures tested the 200dma and settle up on the day by 19. Keep in mind that this is a key area of resistance at the 4/8 Gann level.

The 10-day Trin is getting very close to the overbought threshold of 0.85:

The put/call ratio remains neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross is getting close to bullishly challenging the former breakdown:

The broker-dealer index aggressively broke to a new high. Expect resistance at the 8/8 level.

The SOX was stronger than the overall NDX. Layered overhead begins at the 4/8 level.

The OSX is now 12 days down on the Seeker count.

The XAU recouped very steep losses mid-day to finish stronger than the overall market.

Oil:

Gold

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Wednesday, November 28th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, APKT triggered long (without market support) and worked:

ABFS triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

VRTX gapped under, no trigger.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His MON triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His EOG triggered short (with market support) and didn’t work:

GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: GOOG, stock recap, vxx
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Wednesday, November 28th, 2012
A great trading session for futures, tarred only by the one stop out, but two nice winners beyond that as we finally got some action (even though NASDAQ volume was only 1.6 billion shares still).
Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A at 1388.25, hit first target for six ticks, adjusted the stop a few times and finally stopped at B at 1385.25. Triggered long at C at 1391.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. Re-triggered at D, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed final piece at 1394.25 heading into lunch (unfortunately, it shot up right after):

Tags: es, futures recap
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Wednesday, November 28th, 2012
Not much of a session again. A trigger on the EURUSD that took forever, and then we were able to move the stop to keep it tight after it took too long.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, started to work but took hours and never hit S2 first target. Adjusted the stop over LBreak for a much tighter stop and stopped at B:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, November 27th, 2012
The ES posted another inside day, losing a net 6 handles. The mini-pattern is still contained within Friday’s range expansion candle so the resolution of the range should have good punch.

The NQ side had a little relative strength vs. the SP side. As expected the dual overhead of the 4/8 Gann level and 200dma are going to give the trend at least some initial trouble.

Multi sector daily chart:

The total put/call ratio remains neutral:

The SPX/TLT cross has rebounded back into the trend channel but the posture remains risk-off until the ratio crosses back above the upper channel boundary.

The SOX was the top major sector on the day but left a gravestone doji on the chart. The intermediate trend remains neutral until the trend line is broken.

The OSX was lower by 2 and used the 10ema for support.

The BKX was much weaker than the broad market and settled below the 10ema.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Tuesday, November 27th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, FSLR triggered long (without market support) and worked great:

APKT triggered long (with market support) and worked great:

BRCD triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s FB triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His PXP triggered short (without market support) and didn’t work:

His RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:

There were a couple of nice setups in the afternoon, but the market rolled.
In total, that’s 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Tags: apkt, fslr, rimm, stock recap
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Tuesday, November 27th, 2012
Couple of calls on another choppy session. Volume was better at 1.65 billion NASDAQ shares. Only one trade triggered, and it worked, but no follow through. See NQ section below.
Net ticks: +3 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark’s long idea triggered at A at 2651.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half at the entry:

Tags: futures recap, NQ
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Tuesday, November 27th, 2012
Another dull session, although the EURUSD at least traded 100 pips of range, so the Levels spacing will be better there tonight. We had one very early trigger for less than half size, and that’s it. See EURUSD below. GBPUSD trade never triggered in a narrow range.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long early in the Asian session at A, so would be less than half size, and stopped:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, November 26th, 2012
The ES was lower on the after posting an inside day. The light volume advance on the shortened Friday session likely kept trader’s wallets in their pockets to measure off the half session. The resolution of the inside day should have some punch, especially it is to the upside and keeps short from the initial breakaway gap trapped. The next important level is the 50dma overhead.

The NQ’s had relative strength vs. the broad market all session on the strength of mega-member AAPL. The Naz was higher by 12 on the day, which unlike the SP side, was range expansion rather than a measuring day. There is a big level overhead where the 4/8 Gann line meets the 200dma.

Keep a close eye on the 10-day Trin which is quickly approaching an overbought reading.

The total put/call ratio is still neutral:

Multi sector daily chart:

The NDX/SPX cross is still bearishly below the breakdown level. The overall market will not find confirmed upside momentum until this level is reclaimed by the NDX coming on with sustained relative strength.

With the strength in AAPL it’s no surprise that the Computer Hardware index was the top gun on the day. Expect overhead at the 4/8 level.

The SOX will have overhead where the 50dma, 4/8 level and trend channel meet.

The XAU was mid-range performance wise. Note the 4/8 level just overhead.

The BTK posted an inside day. Price is back above all of tte major moving averages. The active static trend line is the next upside level.

The OSX was the last laggard on the day. Price touched but didn’t break below the 10ema. If price crosses back below the 10ema it will turn the chart back to short-term negative and be in position to complete the unfinished Seeker buy countdown.

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, gold, market preview, NQ, oil, rich
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Monday, November 26th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, FB gapped over the trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s SPY triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn’t work:

His FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:

His CRM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked, although never went far:

Rich’s LRCX triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

Mark’s XLNX triggered long (without market support) and didn’t work:

AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 3 did not.
Tags: AMZN, crm, stock recap, tlt
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Monday, November 26th, 2012
As expected, market volume was incredibly light starting back up from the Thanksgiving weekend, and the futures were barely ticking most of the session. One nice setup in particular did nothing, showing how bad it was. See ES section below.
Net ticks: -14 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s short triggered at A at 1396.25 and stopped for 7 ticks. His long, which was a beautiful setup against the Pivot, triggered at B at 1402.25, but stopped for 7 ticks. Most days, that would have worked:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, November 26th, 2012
Interesting first day back. Our Forex triggers weren’t very far away, and yet, neither triggered as all pairs were fairly flat. EURUSD was barely 35 pips, the smallest range I can remember. Seems odd considering even Friday saw 100 pips.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:

Tags: forex recap, fx
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Wednesday, November 21st, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CLSN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s AMZN triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work:

His DE triggered short (without market support) and worked:

His CRM triggered long (with market support) and worked:

In total, that’s 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Tags: clsn, de, stock recap
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Wednesday, November 21st, 2012
No futures calls for the very light session on the busiest travel day of the year. We will post Levels based on today’s ranges for Friday, but no one trades the half day. Monday’s levels will be based on Friday’s limited activity, which means they will be bunched together if Friday is flat like it should be. Happy Thanksgiving.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:

Tags: futures recap
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Wednesday, November 21st, 2012
Three winners for the week. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target exactly at B, second half stopped over entry. Note that we set the long trigger exactly at C (stopped right at UBreak):

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
The ES was higher by 4 on the day after posing a measuring day. Probability favors a continuation tomorrow.

The NQ was higher by 8 on the day:

Total put/call ratio:

NYSE 10-day Trin:

The BTK outperformed the broad market:

Oil:

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PDCO triggered long (with market support) and eventually worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CRUS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work initially, but worked great on the retrigger a few minutes later:

Rich’s VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His CSTR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His FAZ triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: nflx, stock recap
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Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
I thought we might get one good trading day, but instead, volume dropped sharply, only hitting 326 million NASDAQ shares after an hour, and closing at only 1.5 billion. So, nothing worked. See ES below.
Net ticks: -10 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Triggered short at A under LBreak at 1378.50 and stopped for only 3 ticks based on the call as typed. Set the UBreak at B and then triggered long at 1385.25 and stopped:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Tuesday, November 20th, 2012
Another winner despite narrow range and an early move that took us under the LBreak on the EURUSD before the Asian session. See that section below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, stop would have been under the black line so it never stopped, and you had plenty of times to enter. Hit first target at B, moved stop under the entry and stopped at C:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Monday, November 19th, 2012
The ES gapped higher and added onto the gains to close up 23 handles. Price is now above the 10ema which changes the short-term trend to positive. The advance today also cleared the 4/8 Murrey math level which is also bullish. Since the NYSE Trin closed around 0.50 a measuring day rather than more range expansion is likely.

The NQ futures were higher by 56 on the day. Though the levels are different the technical setup is very similar to the ES. As it should, the chart pattern found initial support at the 0/8 level. If the chart follows through either Tuesday or Wednesday then the 4/8 level that is coincident with eh 200dma will be in play.

The total put/call ratio has moved back to the neutral area but is well away from overbought.

The 10-day Trin still has plenty of room before it recorded a reversal signal.

Multi sector daily chart:

On the strength of AAPL the NDX/SPX cross has blasted back into the comfort zone of the trading zone.

The BKX had a very strong session showing good relative strength vs. the overall broad market SPX. If the relative strength can persist it will be very bullish for the overall market.

The OSX was the top sector on the day, nicely closing above the 10 ema.

The US$ was weak on the day and the XAU took a healthy reflexive bounce. Price remains below all of the major moving averages.

The BKX banking index was stronger than the broad market and NAZ. Keep in mind that this has been one of the stronger sectors on the day and in the larger time frames still bullishly has the 200dma below.

The SOX traded in line with the Naz.

The BTK was the last laggard on the day and is back into the heart of the recent range.

Oil:

Gold:

Tags: es, market preview, NQ, rich
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Monday, November 19th, 2012
With each stock’s recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PDCO triggered long (with market support) and eventually worked enough for a partial:

From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich’s CRUS triggered long (with market support) and worked:

His AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:

AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn’t work initially, but worked great on the retrigger a few minutes later:

Rich’s VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:

His CSTR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:

His FAZ triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn’t work:

In total, that’s 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Tags: AAPL, AMZN, crus, stock recap, vxx
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Monday, November 19th, 2012
We had a big gap up and then a little push early with a winning ES trade and then things went flat for the rest of the session, which isn’t uncommon on the first day of a new options cycle.
Net ticks: +6.5 ticks.
As usual, let’s start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today’s session:


ES:
Mark’s call triggered long at A at 1373.75, hit first target for 6 ticks, and after raising the stop, stopped the second half 7 ticks in the money:

Tags: es, futures recap
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Monday, November 19th, 2012
Ranges improved AND we got a perfect technical setup, trigger, and move in the EURUSD. One day doesn’t prove anything, but let’s hope it is the start of something. See EURUSD below.
Here’s a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:

New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Hit the trigger perfectly at A to set the level, triggered long at B, hit first target perfectly at C, and still holding the second half with a stop under R1:

Tags: eurusd, forex recap, fx
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Friday, November 16th, 2012
The election is behind us and market volume appears to be picking up finally, although current market direction is down. Is it because Obama won? Is it because the Middle East is heating up? Is it because of the Fiscal Cliff?
All good questions. As traders, we like to deal in facts. It makes it easier to make money. When you put your personal whims ahead of reality, success doesn’t come easy.
So is the market down because Obama won? Well, the market doubled in the last four years under Obama, so that doesn’t quite make sense. Is it possible that people that felt strongly that Romney would win and had invested in stocks that would perform well under a potential Romney Administration sold those stocks after the election? Yes, that is possible. That could account for a couple of days of selling after the election very easily and is in the realm of reality.
If you look at the days since the election, we were down the two days after, then flat to two, and then down two more days (keep in mind that the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy was in the middle of all of this, and played a role in volume and probably had a real economic impact). Then we had two more down days on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Is this about things heating up in the Middle East? Well, those two days match off with when the shooting started, as they say, but it also lines up with options unraveling, which definitely played a role in Wednesday’s decline. Then we were flat Thursday and ended up dead even Friday (as usual for options expiration). So the fact is that while the situation in the Middle East has to be watched carefully and isn’t helping, I don’t see anything that says that it is having a big impact on the markets at this time. If it were, oil would probably be running up sharply, and it isn’t. It’s hovering in the mid to high $80s.
So what is the market gearing up for, and what is the focus going forward as we head into the end of the year and what is typically a great time for trading (and should continue to be as volume continues to improve, no matter which way the market goes…up or down beats FLAT)?
First, if you haven’t seen it already, take a moment and watch Rich’s terrific video about the bull/bear numbers that came out this week. You can see it here. Pass that one on to your friends as well.
Second, I think it’s time we had an honest discussion about the Fiscal Cliff and what it means for those that don’t know. It might also help explain the last six months or so of the markets (Stocks, Futures, and Forex) and the lack of volume and range that we have seen for much of that period across the board. Let the Fiscal Cliff serve as an example of exactly what governments should NEVER do. The markets are doing exactly what you would expect when you give them no certainty about just about anything across the board from a fiscal perspective.
So, let’s start with, What is the Fiscal Cliff?
In simple terms, it is a deadline of December 31 of this year where a bunch of things are going to happen at once, and if they all happened, there could be dramatic and (mostly) negative effects on the economy. What are the “things” that are set to happen?
1) The expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts (both of them). One is for just about everyone, which would raise taxes on just about everyone on income, and one is for that piece of income that is over $250,000. Now, just to be clear in regard to that second item: That doesn’t mean that if you make $300,000, you will pay a higher tax rate on all of it. It means that you would pay a higher rate than you would have prior on the $50,000 above $250,000. So if your tax rate there was 32%, now it becomes 36%. So out of your $300,000 in income, you’d pay an extra $2000 (not exactly the doomsday scenario some would paint).
2) Two sets of extreme spending cuts. The first comes in about $600 billion over ten years OFF the current levels of defense spending, and the second comes in about the same amount from domestic elective spending (programs, etc.). Say good-bye to Federally-funded Big Bird, yes, but that’s about 0.01% of it.
Next question. Why is this all happening at once?
We will take the two items separately first. There is something called the Byrd Law that the Senate passed long ago. It states that the Federal government can’t pass anything that intentionally throws the budget out of balance in the long-term (i.e. permanently). This was put in place for a good reason. Want to add something that requires annual spending forever? Gotta figure out how to pay for it forever first. Want to cut taxes? No problem, gotta find some spending to cut to pay for it. It was largely designed to prevent the Federal government’s books from falling out of balance too far. Obviously, it didn’t work well enough.
The reason is that there is an exception to the Byrd Act. Basically, since recessions can happen, the Government needs to have flexibility in the short run to spend more or tax less to stimulate the economy. It is, in the end, the Federal government’s role not to manage the economy, but to broadly steer, as I like to say. So, the exception is that Congress can pass things that have a short-term (viewed as up to ten years) negative impact on the books. So, when both sets of Bush Tax Cuts were enacted in 2001 and 2003, they were set up under the Byrd exemption, meaning that they had to expire in ten years. By definition, a tax cut means less revenue for the government and those is a violation of the Byrd Act unless spending is cut to match (it wasn’t, which is why they used the exemption). Obviously, if the right players were still in power, they could “renew” the tax cuts as new ones for another ten years, but they can not make them permanent in the tax code without cuts.
The tax cut that was put in place in 2001 expired in 2011, but Obama and Congress gave it two more years to December 31, 2012. The other one was always set to expire December 31, 2012. In other words, all of the big decisions about this stuff over the last few years have intentionally been put off by both parties until after this election. Obama didn’t want to raise taxes in the middle of the Great Recession, and the Republicans wanted to have the decisions made after 2012, thinking that they could blame everything on Obama enough to win the election.
Meanwhile, a political battle has been waged over the last four years about how to “fix the deficit” problem, which occurs from the recession as the government took in less money, but also had a few big expenditures like TARP and the stimulus. Remember that when the Recession occurred, tax revenue to the government dropped more as people lost their jobs, which widens the deficit each month (the difference between what the government takes in and what it spends). I won’t get into all of the junk that went with that, but basically, instead of doing what we always do as a country, raising the debt limit (something that has happened multiple times under every President) and working out a combination of tax revenue increases and spending cuts, the Congress and White House couldn’t get it done, and instead, they pushed all of this to December 31. And in their wisdom, they decided to impose what is called a mandatory sequestration on December 31, 2012 (again, after the election) if they couldn’t reach a deal. And they didn’t reach a deal. And so the $600 billion off defense and domestic spending (each) has been set to take place December 31.
And it turns out, when you don’t let the economy and markets know if $1.2 trillion in spending is really going to not happen (which would be a big hit to GDP and raise unemployment for all of the jobs that people wouldn’t be working when that is cut out of the budget) and at the same time don’t let the economy and markets have any idea what you plan to do for tax policy, bad things happen. Middle-income people who might notice a big difference over a couple of thousand dollars don’t spend any extra. Businesses don’t hire. Businesses don’t invest. Add that to already high unemployment from the massive job losses in 2007 to 2009, and you have just a complete recipe for disaster. Never mind that Japan is recovering from the tsunami and Europe is still a mess over